No, Kentucky Derby 150 Doesn’t Need An Asterisk

This past weekend, Nysos won the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, and he did so very impressively. In the process, he moved his career record to a perfect 3-for-3. That effort, combined with an underwhelming showing from Fierceness in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park, made many think he’s the top 3-year-old in the country.

Nysos, though, won’t run in the Kentucky Derby. He’s trained by Bob Baffert, who also conditions several other top-class 3-year-olds. Baffert’s Kentucky Derby ban has been extended through this year’s renewal, and unlike the past two seasons, owners connected with those horses decided to keep their runners in the same barn.

Outcry has, predictably, been pretty harsh, and not just from the usual suspects on horse racing Twitter. Several journalists I respect a great deal have chimed in, claiming that this year’s Kentucky Derby has a stain on it from the lack of Bob Baffert trainees (several of which would be considered logical contenders).

As you can probably guess from the headline, I don’t agree with that sentiment. However, my thoughts on this are similar to the ones I had about the Alix Earle situation at the Pegasus World Cup: Many people have this very, very wrong.

I’m going to throw my readers a curveball here with this next sentence (at least in the eyes of some who will see this article): I don’t love the way Baffert was suspended an additional year. The precedent of tacking on additional time after a verdict was handed down, and as a punishment is being served, isn’t a good one.

The long-running legal battle between Churchill Downs and the Baffert/Amr Zedan camp undoubtedly played a role in this. It was ugly, and I think most of the racing world breathed a sigh of relief when Baffert and Zedan stopped pursuing the case earlier this year. I understand CDI doing what it feels is best for business, but it’s also logical to think this stacks the deck against someone who may have a legitimate case of some sort down the line.

Acting as though one person or one entity is above the game is misleading, at best. On the other hand, though…acting as though one person or one entity is above the game is misleading, at best. Much like Churchill Downs, Bob Baffert and his owners aren’t more important than the rest of the industry.

Owners of horses like Nysos had a choice. They could’ve gone the routes made popular in 2022 and 2023 and sent their Derby prospects to the barns of Tim Yakteen, Sean McCarthy, Rodolphe Brisset, Brittany Russell, or other trainers in the game. More than one trainer can condition top-tier animals. Those owners chose to go another route, and that’s their right. I won’t criticize them for doing what they feel is correct. They pay the bills, not me.

What I also won’t do, though, is act as though those people are victims. Baffert was blackballed from the Run for the Roses, not the owners. Just because those connections aren’t pointing those horses to the Kentucky Derby doesn’t mean I’m going to devalue that race, and I don’t think anyone else should, either.

Barring a flip-flop by the owners of horses like Nysos, Muth, and others, those thoroughbreds won’t be in the starting gate. That’s not ideal, and neither is acting as though everything’s fine and the efforts of those horses don’t exist (as Churchill’s doing). However, it’s not the first time horses at or near the head of the class won’t go postward on the first Saturday in May.

Horses get knocked off the Derby trail every single season. Injuries derail the chances of major players frequently. Most notably, Forte, who would’ve been favored a year ago, scratched the morning of the race. Life Is Good and Shared Belief sure would’ve made the 2021 and 2014 Derbies more interesting, too. They didn’t run, either, and both years, fans and handicappers more than made due on the first Saturday in May.

The difference, of course, is that Nysos isn’t injured. As far as we can tell, he bounced out of the Lewis well. We’ll probably see him in either the San Felipe or the Santa Anita Derby, depending on what Baffert decides to do with his other 3-year-olds, and wherever he winds up, he’ll almost certainly be a very heavy favorite (and justifiably so).

Yes, the Kentucky Derby would be better with Nysos in it. Yes, the Preakness sure looks like the Bob Baffert Invitational, where that barn will undoubtedly be loaded and ready to feast upon horses being wheeled back in two weeks and other “new shooters” that almost certainly don’t stack up well in the form. Saying otherwise is naive and acts as though a major issue doesn’t exist (which, to be fair, is in line with horse racing’s approach on other topics that it’s kicked the can down the road on and can no longer just ignore).

However, there’s a lot of blame to go around for the way this wound up. Giving the race a physical or mental asterisk solves nothing. I’ll never agree with those acting as though the Derby is somehow just another 3-year-old race because one trainer, and owners who made conscious choices to stick with that trainer, can’t participate.

(As an aside, an acquaintance of mine has said they’re taking screenshots of folks insisting they don’t care, won’t bet on the race, and making other bold statements. I look forward to the “then and now” posts made when those people inevitably cave.)

It gets old saying “everyone’s wrong.” I genuinely believe most people mean well. I don’t think anyone’s happy horse racing is in the shape it’s in right now. These conflicts, though, solve absolutely nothing and make unifying for meaningful change beyond one big day much, much harder.

Here’s hoping that stops, and does so sooner rather than later.

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