BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

It’s tough to see a Grade 1 race attract a five-horse field. It’s even tougher when four of five runners come from the same barn.

The situation in Saturday’s Diana isn’t Chad Brown’s fault. He’s running four legitimate horses (including In Italian, who may be the best turf horse in America regardless of gender), and it isn’t his fault nobody else showed up. It’s a symptom of a more widespread issue, where we have fewer horses that run fewer times per season and are concentrated in a handful of barns.

Any economic discussion around this game is too in-depth to have in this space. Having said that, I hope this is one discussion that’s happening in a boardroom somewhere. The Diana’s a great race that deserves better.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: A Saratoga monsoon late Thursday did enough damage to force Friday’s races off the turf. As such, I was washed out of all of my action.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m excited to bet #6 ICEATUDE in the second. He looks like the best closer in a race full of early speed, and I think the trip he’ll get will be exactly the one he wants. I’ll put $50 on him to win (getting scratched out of my action the past two days means I can put a bit more behind this one).

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Iceatude, Race 2
Longshot: Nickel Nickel, Race 11

R1

Pirate
Special Element
Sheriff Joe

#1 PIRATE (4/5): Hammered for $350,000 at auction last September and is bred to be a good one. Dam Treasure also threw both Preakness winner National Treasure and stakes-winning sprinter Ultimate, and this one has shown plenty of precocity in the morning for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher; #4 SPECIAL ELEMENT (7/2): Fetched $260,000 despite a very modest pedigree (sire Copper Bullet commands just $7,500 at stud), and we’ve already seen this barn win with one first-time starter on Opening Day. The last work is certainly a step up and may mean he’s on his toes for the Saturday opener; #6 SHERIFF JOE (8-1): Is bred to want much longer than this 5 1/2-furlong route, but the works have been decent enough. This son of Curlin is out of a Distorted Humor mare, who herself is out of graded stakes winner Daydreaming (the dam of Grade 1 winner Imagining, among others).

R2

Iceatude
Win for Gold
Sugar Gray Leonard

#6 ICEATUDE (5-1): Looks like one of the few closers in a speed-heavy sprint, and the race shape should hit him right between the eyes. The faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be, and while this is a class jump first off the claim, it sure seems like he’ll have every chance at an ideal setup; #1 WIN FOR GOLD (4-1): Has picked up plenty of checks since being claimed back in February, but is still looking for his first win at this starter allowance level. He’s got one way of going and should have enough early zip to utilize the inside draw; #2 SUGAR GRAY LEONARD (9/5): Should benefit from the race shape, like my top pick, but he hasn’t won in quite a long time. A repeat of his two-back effort, where he was second in the slop at Aqueduct, would give him a shot, but the likely price hits me as an underlay.

R3

Portage (MTO)
Vanished
Isola

#5 VANISHED (3-1): Has proven form and looks like the lone speed, which is a dangerous combination in two-turn routes on the inner turf course. Luis Saez was aboard for her first-out effort, where she ran a strong second on the turf at Churchill, and they seem like they’ll be the ones to catch; #1 ISOLA (9/2): Ran well to be second in her debut overseas and gets Lasix for the first time in her American debut. She’s a half to several strong runners, including multiple stakes winner Anda Muchacho, and she has every right to step forward at second asking; #9 HOLA GATA (10-1): Hasn’t run since November, but I prefer this one to the other Chad Brown trainee in this field. She ran very well here last summer when beaten just a length behind next-out stakes winner Pleasant Passage, and Flavien Prat sees fit to ride this one when he likely had a few options.

R4

In Italian
Marketsegmentation
Whitebeam

#2 IN ITALIAN (2/5): Looms large in her quest to win a second straight renewal of the Grade 1 Diana. Chad Brown has four of the five runners in here, and I highly doubt he’d willingly send one of them to keep this one company early on; #3 MARKETSEGMENTATION (4-1): Found herself alone on the lead last time in the Grade 1 New York and went wire-to-wire going longer at Belmont Park. That’s not her traditional trip, and I don’t think it replicates itself here, but she’s won three in a row and could be in career-best form; #5 WHITEBEAM (5-1): Won what turned out to be a classy edition of the Grade 3 Gallorette, as both the runner-up and third-place finisher came right back to win. This is her third start off the bench, and it’s worth noting this is where Prat shows up.

R5

Always Charming
Mariachi
G Munning

#2 ALWAYS CHARMING (4-1): Has found a new gear as a 4-year-old, having won two of three starts this season. The seven-furlong trip last time out may have been just a hair too far, and it’s encouraging to see Irad Ortiz, Jr., hop aboard for what seems like a strong race for the level; #8 MARIACHI (5/2): Wasn’t beaten much by my top pick last time out in what doubled as this one’s first race since November. I think he may have to exert some energy to get his preferred front-running trip in this spot, but he does have every right to improve second off the bench, too; #7 G MUNNING (5-1): Hasn’t run in nine months but resurfaces for Chad Brown. There are no wins on this one’s sheet after November of 2021, but he’s been working well here and may be responding to the barn switch.

R6

Solib
Sals Dream Girl
Silver Skillet

#2 SOLIB (4-1): Is a tepid top pick in a race that hits me as a true grass grab bag. She’s found her form over the last two starts and had an excuse last time out, when she didn’t break well in a race without much early speed. She’s won going long before and could be the one to hold off late; #6 SALS DREAM GIRL (6-1): Gets back to a two-turn route here after two one-turn events downstate, and that seems to be this one’s preferred trip. Both of her wins have come going two turns, and she’s reunited with Luis Saez, who piloted her to a three-back score in March; #10 SILVER SKILLET (7/2): Tried turf last time out and seemed to like it, as she was beaten just a neck despite rating behind a pace that wasn’t very fast. Two turns is an unknown, and the post position draw isn’t ideal, but she might be talented enough to overcome those obstacles and navigate a winning trip.

R7

Hydra (MTO)
Breeze Easy
Tracy Ann’s Legacy

#4 BREEZE EASY (9/5): Makes her third start off a layoff, and the two that have come before this one weren’t bad. She was most recently a fast-closing second downstate against a similar-quality group, and regular rider Joel Rosario seems to get along with her well; #7 TRACY ANN’S LEGACY (10-1): Comes in off of a clunker that hits me as too bad to be true. She won two of three starts prior to that one and recorded some pretty fast five-furlong times. Finding that form would make her a contender at a nice price; #1 PLAYLIST (2-1): Ran a monster race at Ellis Park last month when she romped by more than five lengths. She’ll likely be favored in here, and repeat of that effort would make her tough, but that’s such an outlier from the rest of her form that I think she may be a “bounce” candidate.

R8

Ichiban
Island Rose
Neigh Jude

#10 ICHIBAN (4-1): Ran a career-best race off a brief freshening last time out. She was a good second in a race where she dueled throughout before giving way in the waning stages. The cutback to seven furlongs should help her, and Jose Ortiz and Linda Rice have made a very strong team this year; #6 ISLAND ROSE (6-1): Is one of a few first-time starters that piques my interest in here. This daughter of Gun Runner is kin to seven winners and has been working well enough downstate to turn some heads; #9 NEIGH JUDE (5-1): Ships up from Monmouth Park for her debut and has enough pedigree to be intriguing. Her dam was a multiple stakes winner, and she’s already thrown another multiple stakes winner named November Rein.

R9

Gun It (MTO)
Annapolis
Casa Creed

#2 ANNAPOLIS (8/5): Has won six of nine races with two seconds, and his only career misfire came in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile against far better horses. There’s plenty of speed signed on for the Grade 3 Kelso to set up for this one’s late kick, and it helps he’s won here twice before; #8 CASA CREED (5/2): May be better going shorter, but he’s good enough at this distance to have captured last year’s Grade 1 Fourstardave. Both of his runs this year going shorter have been solid, and he’s another likely to benefit from the presence of several front-running types; #7 ANACONDA (6-1): Has won just one of his last six tries but merits respect based on the likely race shape. He was likely too close to the pace in the Grade 3 Poker, where he ran fourth, and I’m expecting him to be further back early while the pace-setters carve out fast fractions.

R10

Gold Sweep
Triple Trea
Market Street

#9 GOLD SWEEP (3/5): Simply looks like he has the field in the Grade 3 Sanford over a barrel. He earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure after destroying five others to win the Tremont by nine, and he may be the shortest-priced horse on the card despite the large field; #7 TRIPLE TREA (10-1): Won first time out over the synthetic track at Woodbine and ships down for his first try against winners. I like 2-year-olds that show they can rate and pass others late. This one rallied from sixth to get the job done in his unveiling and could have potential; #10 MARKET STREET (12-1): Was never threatened in his debut, when he went wire-to-wire in the slop at Ellis Park. I’m not sure what he beat that day, but his pedigree says he should get better with experience and distance, and the far outside draw is certainly a plus.

R11

Nickel Nickel
Beer Run
Flat Top Box

#5 NICKEL NICKEL (10-1): May provide some value in the Saturday finale. He hammered for $250,000 at auction last year and has plenty of win-early pedigree. This son of Into Mischief is out of a dam who won at first asking, and that dam is kin to multiple graded stakes winner Kobe’s Back; #2 BEER RUN (2-1): Has beaten several of these rivals in his two lifetime outings and sure looks like the main early speed in here. He’s a logical favorite and could prove tough to catch, but I just don’t think he’s beaten much and don’t have a problem taking a mild stand and using a bigger price on top; #4 FLAT TOP BOX (9/2): Took a step forward at second asking, and that may have been due to getting on the turf for the first time. He chased my second choice through solid fractions and cuts back a sixteenth of a mile in this event.