BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $990

As a reminder, this content is solely an after-hours passion project of mine. It will only be available on this site, so keep checking back for more content from now through Labor Day.

A lot of things happened while I was gone, and it gives me plenty of material for this space. First, let’s tackle racing in my adopted home region of Northern California, which was dealt a massive blow with the announcement of Golden Gate Fields’s impending demise.

I’d like to think there’s a morsel of truth in The Stronach Group inviting horses and trainers down south, and I’d like to think races will be carded where those horses and trainers stand a fighting chance. However, with only $1 million or so of an upcoming $31 million infrastructure project allotted to those means, I can’t help but think many talented horsepeople (and the thoroughbreds in their care) won’t be making the trip.

There’s an initiative gathering steam in NorCal that would see racing take place at fair tracks 10 months out of the year. That seems far more logical, and would allow for a “minor league” circuit that otherwise wouldn’t exist.

LAST TIME…: It was a while ago, but I had $40 in win bets whittled down to a single losing $10 wager.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I really like #1 CHUCK WILLIS in the third. I think the cutback in distance will suit him, and I’m betting accordingly. My action is a $30 win bet on him in hopes that he channels his mid-2022 form.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Sunday, July 17: 2-for-9
Meet: 9-for-38

Best Bet: Chuck Willis, Race 3
Longshot: Just Call Ray, Race 7

R1

Caramelised
Awakened
Merry Maker

#3 CARAMELISED (7/2): Made his first U.S. start a winning one before finishing a distant third against much better horses. That day’s runner-up came right back to win, and I think this one may respond to a cutback in distance; #1 AWAKENED (7/2): Has fired some big shots since being moved to the steeplechase ranks in early-2022. His last-out win was a strong one, and his flexible running style is a plus; #2 MERRY MAKER (6-1): Hit a rough patch in late-2022 but came back running in his 2023 debut, when he rallied from eighth to capture an allowance race. This is probably a step up the ladder, but he’s inexperienced and may have some room to grow.

R2

Flying in Style
Bustino Santino
Stavros

#7 FLYING IN STYLE (3-1): Ran well in his debut for a barn that doesn’t often have firsters fully cranked. He made the lead from the rail that day, gets a much friendlier draw in this spot, and has every right to move forward at second asking; #3 BUSTINO SANTINO (5-1): Hasn’t run since January but boasts a few solid local works and may have room to improve. He’s never once run over a fast main track, so there’s every chance he’s got a gear we haven’t seen yet, and this barn excels in bringing horses back off of long breaks; #6 STAVROS (9/2): Comes east after flopping twice in California and runs against New York-breds for the first time. He’s been working well at Laurel and may relish the class drop, but those two SoCal races didn’t come back fast on figures and this isn’t a bad group for the level.

R3

Jacobson entry
Chess Master
Lyrical Poet

#1 CHUCK WILLIS (4-1): Has back races that would crush this group and goes second off the layoff (and first off the claim) in this spot. Seven furlongs is a bit longer than he probably wants, but this 5 1/2-furlong trip should hit this speedy gelding right between the eyes; #2 CHESS MASTER (6/5): Has run some big figures in his career and exits a last-out score at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Closers on the rail make me a bit nervous, and the likely price seems like an underlay, but he’s an obvious contender provided he gets the right trip; #6 LYRICAL POET (3-1): Hasn’t run since October and takes a big drop for Wesley Ward. His late-2022 form is troubling, but he’s shown early speed against better and does have a win at this route.

R4

Shadow Dragon
Olympic Dreams
Un Ojo

#1 SHADOW DRAGON (9/5): Contested several Kentucky Derby prep races and ran into some top-class 3-year-olds along the way. He’s improved his numbers in his two most recent outings and stretches back out to two turns, which hits me as his best game; #3 OLYMPIC DREAMS (2-1): Did everything but win in the Commentator downstate, when he ran the talented Bankit to a head at a big price. His lone two-turn dirt start to date was a win back in April, and it sure seems like he’s finding his best form midway through his 4-year-old campaign; #2 UN OJO (5-1): Hasn’t run since January but has been working swiftly at Keeneland and adds blinkers for the first time. Best known for winning the Grade 2 Rebel last year, the one-eyed NY-bred would benefit from a pace meltdown.

R5

Run for Your Honey
Belvoir
Charity First

#5 RUN FOR YOUR HONEY (6-1): Ran third as an 8/5 favorite earlier in the meet, but goes two turns for the first time and is bred to love this trip. Her dam’s pedigree is all-distance, and the experience edge she has over most of this group could prove significant; #6 BELVOIR (5/2): Is kin to 2-year-old stakes winner Maiden Beauty and fetched $105,000 at auction, 14 times the stud fee of sire Flameaway. Going two turns on debut is a tough ask, but she’s got every reason to be a good one; #8 CHARITY FIRST (10-1): Was one-paced in her debut, where she ran into several next-out winners in what turned out to be a key race. The blinkers go on, as does jockey Luis Saez, and improvement seems logical at second asking for a runner whose pedigree says she wants lots of ground.

R6

T Max (MTO)
Kannon Fire
Miss M M

#2 KANNON FIRE (5-1): Is the bigger price of the two Linda Rice trainees, but is the one I prefer in a wide-open event. Her two-back win was solid, she had a bonafide excuse last time out, and given her first-out win at Aqueduct, we know she can handle a two-turn trip; #1 MISS M M (8-1): Merits a long look in here due to the likely race shape, which figures to be very kind to early speed. She say just off of very fast fractions going five furlongs last time, but has a win going a two-turn mile and could get comfortable up front at a price; #3 STIR CRAZY (5/2): Ships up from Monmouth, drops in for a tag, and makes sense given her consistency. The lack of a recent win is certainly troubling, but I prefer her to #7 POSTNUP, who hasn’t won in more than two years and hits me as a very vulnerable favorite despite a trainer change that’s impossible to ignore.

R7

Lord Captain
Just Call Ray
Salto de Tigre

#10 LORD CAPTAIN (9/5): Ran a career-best race first off the claim for Linda Rice last time out, when he ran a close-up second and earned a 94 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s shown plenty of two-turn form in the past, so the 10-furlong journey doesn’t concern me much, and anything close to the last-out figure likely beats these; #5 JUST CALL RAY (15-1): Didn’t do much running last time out, but I’m willing to look past that clunker. His best races have come going two turns, not one, and if he channels his May form, he’s got every chance to be a player in here at a big price; #6 SALTO DE TIGRE (6-1): Is an ultra-consistent gelding who seems to always show up. He’s hit the board in 16 of 24 career starts, including each of his last eight, and his plodding style could suit this distance very nicely.

R8

Technical Analysis
White Frost
Haughty

#5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (9/5): Boasts three graded stakes scores over this turf course and looms large in the De La Rose. Her 2023 debut last time out was solid, and she should step forward considerably, as she’s shown she relishes going two turns over the lawn at the Spa; #1 WHITE FROST (3-1): Has danced plenty of big dances and was third in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland earlier this year. Bill Mott has enjoyed a strong start to the meet with several big wins, and this is another that more than fits in this spot; #4 HAUGHTY (5-1): Is one of three Chad Brown trainees and has every right to be sitting on a big effort third off the bench. She was wide throughout in the Perfect Sting last time, gains Irad Ortiz, Jr., for this effort, and figures to be prominent early.

R9

Headland (MTO)
Mail Order
Adaay In Asia

#6 MAIL ORDER (4-1): Ran second behind next-out stakes winner Roses for Debra in her 2023 debut despite an awkward start. She flashed enough talent earlier in her career to hint that this effort was no fluke, and a step forward would give her a big chance; #4 ADAAY IN ASIA (8-1): Was fourth in the race my top pick exits but goes third off the bench here and retains the services of Flavien Prat. She’d benefit from a pace meltdown, and there’s plenty of early zip signed on (at least on paper); #7 KAUFYMAKER (4-1): Is one of two Wesley Ward trainees in this spot and comes in off of a win at Churchill in May. They ran her in some big spots as a 2-year-old, and while she may not have moved forward much from those races, her usual effort puts her right there.

R10

Baby Sox
Vax
La Aguililla

#4 BABY SOX (6-1): Misfired in her first try against winners, but she dueled through solid fractions that day and may have bounced off of a lifetime-best effort two back. She should make the lead in here, and that may be enough in what hits me as a weak race for the level; #7 VAX (7/5): Merits respect given the barn switch and massive class drop, and was third in the race my top pick exits. However, she benefited from the same pace that compromised Baby Sox that day, and I think they may go a bit slower up front here; #6 LA AGUILILLA (7/2): Has gone a long time without a win, but runs for her lowest claiming tag ever and has run in some pretty fast races in the past. It doesn’t sound like a ringing endorsement, but that might be enough to get her a check in the Wednesday finale.