SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/3/23)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $960

I’m engaged to the hardest-working person I’ll ever know. My fiancee is a fifth-grade teacher at a public school outside Oakland. Every day, she has to deal with 30 10-year-olds, then deal with an overgrown kid in her personal life (I tell people this all the time, but skip all of the steps and make her a saint straight away).

She’s preparing for the start of the school year, and in doing so has started a Donors Choose project to fund an initiative that will allow her kids to enjoy a diverse range of books this coming year. If you’ve had a good day at the track and are looking for a cause to support, I can guarantee you that this is a worthy one.

If you’d like to learn more and donate, click here.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Chuck Willis ran his eyeballs out in the third but finished second behind the favorite, who got a picture-perfect trip. As such, I dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the sixth race and hope I get the 8-1 morning line price on #3 GALA BRAND. I’ll make a $20 win bet on that one and single her in $5 doubles that end in the seventh with #4 I’MHAVINGAMOMENT and #6 SECURITY CODE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Wednesday: 1-for-10
Meet: 10-for-48

Best Bet: Its Cold in Dehere, Race 4
Longshot: Gala Brand, Race 6

R1

B D Saints
Get Spooled
Cold Plunge

#1 B D SAINTS (5/2): Debuted with a fourth-place finish at Ellis Park where he made a middle move and flattened out. It’s a tough ask to debut going two turns, and I think he’s got the potential to improve significantly in the Thursday lid-lifter; #2 GET SPOOLED (8-1): Hammered for $230,000 last year and has plenty of turf pedigree. His dam is kin to a stakes-winning turf sprinter named Spycraft, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s ready to run right away; #3 COLD PLUNGE (7/2): Debuts for a high-percentage outfit and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., who likely had a few options in here. This barn’s record with debuting turfers isn’t great, and it’s tough to debut going two turns, but his pedigree is loaded with stamina, so perhaps he’s doing what he wants.

R2

Invisible War
Cumberland Blues
Union Lights

#4 INVISIBLE WAR (5/2): Merits a reluctant top choice in a race where I have no strong opinion. He adds blinkers on a substantial class drop, and both of those tweaks could be enough to move him forward; #5 CUMBERLAND BLUES (7/2): Has run third twice for a higher claiming tag and tries two turns for the first time. He’s shown a bit of tactical speed in the past, and that could give him first run when the real running starts; #6 UNION LIGHTS (3-1): Sure seems like the main speed in here and ran second behind a much-the-best winner last time out. I’m unsure if he really wants this trip, but he could easily get comfortable up front and be tough to catch.

R3

Implementation
Playingwithmatches
Jester’s Song

#6 IMPLEMENTATION (6/5): Has been away since a sharp score at Keeneland in April, but has also been working consistently for Saffie Joseph and catches a field that doesn’t seem to include any world-beaters. There’s plenty of speed in here, and that should set up for his late kick; #5 PLAYINGWITHMATCHES (5-1): Takes a big jump after running second in a $25,000 claimer last time out, but runs for Linda Rice for the first time and has contested some pretty fast races. He has some tactical speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead, which I find attractive at this distance; #2 JESTER’S SONG (8-1): Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment last time out against much better horses. He’s got dirt form that would make him a player in here if he can work out a trip from a tricky inside post.

R4

Its Cold in Dehere
Suspended Campaign
Run Devil

#8 ITS COLD IN DEHERE (5/2): Goes first off the claim for Linda Rice, which, as you can tell, is a move I simply cannot ignore. She had a bonafide excuse last time out, when she didn’t break well, and her two-back victory against higher-level competition was solid; #1 SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN (6/5): Merits respect thanks to a gigantic class drop, but while her best race beats these, I have some doubts. She hasn’t won over a fast dirt track in quite some time, and closers breaking from the rail sometimes don’t get the trips they need; #5 RUN DEVIL (6-1): Comes back to what’s probably the right level after being in over her head for a $40,000 tag in June. She got pretty sharp over the winter at Aqueduct and is a contender if she can get back to that form.

R5

One Headlight
Gem Mint Ten
Timbuktu

#9 ONE HEADLIGHT (2-1): Tries winners for the first time, but it’s tough to not be impressed by how fast he came home last time out. He may have to navigate another closer-unfriendly race shape, but I think he’s talented enough to do so; #5 GEM MINT TEN (6-1): Was one-paced against stakes competition last time and returns to the allowance ranks. With that, he gets Lasix again, and he has enough early speed to work out a very favorable trip; #1 TIMBUKTU (5/2): Rallied from last to first last time out at Belmont and seems to have found his best form since going to Rick Dutrow’s barn. Two turns is a question mark, but he certainly seems well-meant and has some flexibility in his running style.

R6

Lady Prospect (MTO)
Gala Brand
Destiny Star

#3 GALA BRAND (8-1): Has a ton of turf pedigree on her dam’s side, as that mare, Olorda, was a very classy grass horse that won multiple graded stakes races. Bill Mott doesn’t work his young horses very quickly all that often, so that recent three-furlong bullet jumps off the page; #4 DESTINY STAR (4-1): Is another firster bred to love the lawn. This daughter of Catholic Boy is out of a Declaration of War mare, one whose dam was a 2-year-old stakes-winner on grass; #7 SHORESY (8-1): Has an experience edge over most of these and did at least do some running late after a poor start. This barn isn’t a big one, but it wins races at a solid clip and it’s interesting they ship this filly here when she almost certainly could’ve found a spot in the mid-Atlantic circuit.

R7

Security Code
I’mhavingamoment
Tempermental

#6 SECURITY CODE (7/2): Ran well here twice a season ago and has tangled with stakes foes multiple times since then. She was left with too much to do last time after a poor break, and I’m expecting her to sit a better trip in this spot over a surface she’s shown she likes; #4 I’MHAVINGAMOMENT (5/2): Put forth a career-best effort last time out in victory, when she cruised home clear by three lengths downstate. The possibility of a bounce off of that performance is there, but the recent bullet drill over Belmont’s training track is a big plus; #7 TEMPERMENTAL (6-1): Comes back to dirt first off the claim for Chris Englehart, who knows how to win with new acquisitions. She’d benefit from a pace meltdown, and it sure seems like there’s some zip elsewhere in this field.

R8

Pipeline
Guntown
Galt

#2 PIPELINE (3/5): Hasn’t run since a clunker in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, where it’s abundantly clear something went wrong. He’s been working consistently for Chad Brown and seems to have found a fairly soft spot for his 2023 debut; #1 GUNTOWN (5-1): Goes first off the claim for Linda Rice (I’m saying that A LOT…) and ran fairly well when second behind a next-out winner in his most recent outing. Stretching out to a mile shouldn’t be too much of a problem, and he seems like the most probable winner if the heavy favorite falters; #4 GALT (7/2): Ran third behind the talented Tonal Impact last time out and has plenty of back class. Songbird’s little brother clearly isn’t as brilliant as she was, but he’s a consistent, hard-trying horse that can’t be ignored.

R9

War Like Goddess
Virginia Joy
McKulick

#1 WAR LIKE GODDESS (3/5): Is one of the country’s top turf females when she’s at her best, and this seems like an ideal race shape in the making. Unlike her effort last time out in the Grade 1 New York, there’s some early speed signed on for the Grade 2 Glens Falls, and that should open the door for the late kick we’ve come to expect; #2 VIRGINIA JOY (8-1): Beat my top pick here last year in the Grade 2 Flower Bowl, so we know she’s capable of big efforts. She hasn’t won since, but she was probably too far back last time out and gets a big rider switch to Flavien Prat; #4 MCKULICK (7/2): Has more tactical speed than she showed last time out, when she rated in sixth early on in the New York and couldn’t catch the top two. She’s run well here several times and could get first run turning for home.

R10

Ripe for Mischief
P Money
Academy Choice

#9 RIPE FOR MISCHIEF (3-1): Gets a monstrous rider switch to Luis Saez and cuts back in distance for the Thursday finale. Both of those changes, plus a cushy outside draw, could help him break through in a race where he may find himself alone up front early on; #8 P MONEY (12-1): Hasn’t raced since January, but I think there’s reason to believe he’s sitting on a strong effort. His female family includes a third dam that threw champion turfer Better Talk Now, and he makes his first start as a gelding in here; #3 ACADEMY CHOICE (10-1): Ran well to be third in his first effort going short on turf last time out, and it helps his cause that the runner-up came right back to graduate. He may be on the upswing, and he probably doesn’t have to move forward too much to be a player in here.

Leave a comment