SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/5/23; WHITNEY DAY)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,211.50

If you have a used book store wherever you happen to live or travel, be a regular. You truly never know what you’ll find.

My fiancee and I were in Orange County last weekend to see some friends. We stopped at a place in Tustin, just outside Anaheim, and I found a copy of “The Shoe: Willie Shoemaker’s Illustrated Book of Racing.” Released in the 1970’s, this copy had not just newspaper clippings someone left inside the book, but autographs personalized to someone named Ray from co-author Dan Smith and Shoemaker himself.

The actual retail price was the best $10 and change I’ve spent in a long time. If the Ray this was personalized for happens to see this, your book’s in good hands.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: It wasn’t anything earth-shattering, but we did turn a profit. Scratches reduced plays to $5 exactas in the opener, one of which connected. In all, we turned $20 into $48.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ve got a few mid-priced leans scattered throughout the card. I’ll have $10 win bets on the following horses: #6 DRILLING FOR GOLD (race 1), #7 BE THE BOSS (race 5), #5 SPEAKING SCOUT (race 7), and #5 INTERPOLATE (race 8).

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Friday: 3-for-7
Meet: 16-for-65

Best Bet: Victorious Wave, Race 3
Longshot: Interpolate, Race 8

R1

Trade Imbalance (MTO)
Drilling for Gold
Agate Road

#6 DRILLING FOR GOLD (6-1): Is bred up and down for turf and comes in off a steady string of workouts for Graham Motion. Dam Danceforthecause has been exceptionally strong, and this one’s kin to two stakes winners and another runner that won at first asking; #4 AGATE ROAD (12-1): Is out of a Grade 1-winning 2-year-old mare and has worked steadily ahead of his unveiling. He hammered for $650,000 at last year’s Keeneland sale and has every right to be a good one; #7 WALLEY WORLD (6-1): Sold for $220,000 as a yearling and debuts on turf for Chad Brown, which automatically makes him worth a second look. It’s worth noting, though, that it’s Manny Franco aboard and not one of this barn’s first-call riders.

R2

Be You
Uno Mas Bourbon
Domestic Product

#1 BE YOU (2-1): Has been working very well leading up to his unveiling for powerhouse connections that have won a lot of 2-year-old races here. This son of Curlin has to negotiate a trip from the rail, but if he breaks sharply, I don’t think they catch him; #10 UNO MAS BOURBON (8-1): Has an experience edge over most of this group and at least did some running to salvage fifth after a slow start. The blinkers go on at second asking, and I’m expecting a step forward at a bit of a price; #5 DOMESTIC PRODUCT (3-1): Debuts for Brown after a steady, strong string of local drills. There’s some class on the bottom side of his pedigree (her second dam is a full sister to multiple stakes winner Cherokee Moon), and it wouldn’t be surprising if he could run.

R3

Victorious Wave
No More Talk
Glory Road

#8 VICTORIOUS WAVE (2-1): Won first off the claim for this outfit last time out and comes back to the NYRA circuit for this one. He draws favorably, doesn’t run into the strongest group for the level, and would be a major player if he runs his usual race; #5 NO MORE TALK (9/2): Was pretty sharp this past spring, but faltered as a 6/5 favorite in his local debut last time out. The new barn is ice cold, but anything close to his performances downstate would give him a big shot; #6 GLORY ROAD (3-1): Wants to sit back and make one run, and has done so to great effect at this level over the past few seasons. The faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be, and this barn does very well with new acquisitions.

R4

Zeebear (MTO)
Ortus
Born Dancer

#9 ORTUS (5/2): Stretches out to two turns for the first time, but his lone win came going a mile downstate, so this distance shouldn’t be a problem. He’d benefit from a duel up front, and there does at least appear to be some zip elsewhere in the field; #8 BORN DANCER (6-1): Wired a field of maidens last time out in his 2023 debut and goes second off the bench in this spot. He was third behind the classy Dakota Gold here a season ago, and his tactical speed is a plus; #4 SELL SOMETHING (15-1): Does his best running going two turns and stretches back out to such a route here. His lone start over this turf course was a win, and his only other win came going two turns on turf at Aqueduct this past April.

R5

Be the Boss
Asymmetric
Golden Arm

#7 BE THE BOSS (8-1): Comes back to dirt after tiring in a pair of turf sprints downstate. It’s pretty clear he just isn’t a turf horse, and his three-back dirt effort at Belmont was a strong win. He’s 2-for-3 with a second at this distance and hits me as a value play at or near that morning line price; #2 ASYMMETRIC (7/2): Has clearly had his issues, with just one start since last June. He had every right to need the last-out clunker, though, and the rider switch to Castellano is a notable one; #4 GOLDEN ARM (6-1): Returns to the main track after a clunker on turf last month. His first-out win was a strong effort, his two-back effort wasn’t bad, and I’m expecting him to be prominent early on.

R6

Caravel
Remuda
Nobals

#4 CARAVEL (3/5): Has reeled off five wins in a row and established herself as the country’s top female turf sprinter. She’ll once again take on the boys in the Grade 3 Troy, and anything close to her last-out effort in the Grade 1 Jaipur would make her a very formidable favorite; #8 REMUDA (10-1): Gets a major class test, but I was impressed with his last-out score at Laurel Park. He earned a very fast clocking that day and stands to benefit from swift early fractions; #7 NOBALS (7/2): Has found his form in the last few starts, one of which was a 38-1 shocker in a Grade 2 at Churchill Downs. The aptly-named gelding has one way of going and will likely be the one they’re chasing into the turn.

R7

Speaking Scout
Dakota Gold
Smokin’ T

#5 SPEAKING SCOUT (9/2): Has tackled some tough customers and came away with a Grade 1 win in last year’s Hollywood Derby at Del Mar (my goodness, that’ll always sound wrong). His last two tries against Grade 3 company were solid, and Flavien Prat sees fit to ride in the Lure; #3 DAKOTA GOLD (5/2): Cruised home against overmatched NY-breds in the Hudson Valley last time out and steps up into open company here. He’s been competitive in similar spots before, his versatility is a plus, and he’s not an illogical favorite; #2 SMOKIN’ T (7/2): Is an ultra-consistent turf runner who generally runs the same race every time out. That was good for a second-place finish in a similar spot at Monmouth Park back in May, and he has the speed to potentially sit a perfect stalking trip just off the speed.

R8

Interpolate
Maple Leaf Mel
Pretty Mischievous

#5 INTERPOLATE (15-1): OK, let’s get crazy. This one had a genuine excuse in the Grade 3 Victory Ride, when she conceded tons of ground early and never got involved. I think she’s the lone true closer in a race full of early zip, and that gives her a big chance in the Grade 1 Test at a gigantic price; #8 MAPLE LEAF MEL (2-1): Has never been headed in five career starts and comes in off of back-to-back graded stakes scores. She draws very well and figures to be the one they’ll have to catch; #1 PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS (9/5): Has won back-to-back Grade 1 races, and I’d love her if the race was a little longer. However, I’m not sure going this short is what she truly wants, and the rail draw is a legitimate concern. She can win on her best day, but she might need that type of effort against this bunch.

R9

Far Bridge
Program Trading
Webslinger

#5 FAR BRIDGE (2-1): Has never been worse than second in five career tries and exits an impressive win in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby, which didn’t set up for his late kick at all. Still, he mowed down the pace-setters that day, and he’ll look to do so again in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby; #2 PROGRAM TRADING (7/2): Has done nothing wrong to this point, with two wins in as many starts. I loved the new dimension he showed last time out, when he pressed the pace and won going away, and he may luck into a similar trip in this spot; #6 WEBSLINGER (4-1): Was compromised by the slow Belmont Derby pace and could only salvage fourth money that day. However, he nosed my top pick earlier this year at Churchill Downs and has more tactical speed than he showed last time out.

R10

Cody’s Wish
Last Samurai
Charge It

#6 CODY’S WISH (1/2): Combines “best story in racing” with “most talent in racing” in ways we haven’t seen in quite a long time and looms large in the Grade 1 Whitney. I don’t think two turns will be an issue for him, and anything close to his electric score in the Grade 1 Met Mile will leave everyone else running for second; #4 LAST SAMURAI (15-1): Is a plodding type that needs a lot to go right, but there’s plenty of speed signed on in here and he’s capable of putting forth an effort that would fit here. Those Oaklawn races weren’t that long ago, Prat sees fit to ride, and should he REALLY be the fifth choice in here?; #2 CHARGE IT (5-1): Romped over the weakest Grade 2 Suburban field in some time last time out, but did at least earn a 106 Beyer Speed Figure. Two turns is a legitimate question, as is his desire to race anywhere but Belmont Park, but it’s not like he’s totally illogical.

R11

Caramel Chip
Frat Pack
Brew Pub

#10 CARAMEL CHIP (7/2): Hasn’t run a bad race since moving to his current barn earlier this year and was a close-up third at this route last time out. This will already be his 11th start of the year, but he’s shown plenty, gets a fantastic draw, and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #5 FRAT PACK (9/2): Tries winners for the first time after an easy, maiden-breaking score downstate. He’s been working at Monmouth, which is sometimes a red flag for the Chad Brown barn, but a step forward second off the bench would put him right there; #3 BREW PUB (8-1): Cuts back in distance after finishing second going a mile at Belmont. He ran in spurts that day, and given how well this barn is going, I think he’s got a chance to improve at a bit of a price.

R12

Whittington Park (MTO)
Beuys
My Sea Cottage

#12 BEUYS (7/2): Doesn’t draw terribly well in the Saturday finale, but seems like the lone closer in a race with lots of early speed, and Oisin Murphy sees fit to stick around. I think they’ll go pretty fast early, and that would set things up for this one to come pick up the pieces; #4 MY SEA COTTAGE (8-1): Wired a field earlier in the meet and steps up in class for this allowance event. While he probably wants the lead, he’s at least shown some ability to sit back if he has to, and that may give Jose Ortiz a few options early on; #2 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS (10-1): Absolutely loves Saratoga and cannot be ignored, especially given his running style. He wants to sit back and make one run, and while he probably needs to improve on figures in order to win this, leaving him off of vertical exotics tickets seems dangerous.

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