BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,191.50

I like having fun with my Saratoga content. I enjoy knowing that some people get joy out of reading my stuff, and it’s why I’ve brought it back, as a passion project, after a weird situation last month. Unfortunately, anything of that sort would be a facade at this point.

I’m writing this moments after the Grade 1 Test. Maple Leaf Mel, a phenomenal story in a sport desperate for phenomenal stories, looked home free in mid-stretch and on her way to a sixth win in as many starts. However, to the horror of the thousands in attendance and those watching a nationwide broadcast on FOX, she broke down a few strides before the wire and was euthanized on the track, per David Grening of The Daily Racing Form.

Situations like that are why I’ll never judge anyone for not being a fan of horse racing. At its best, it’s the greatest gambling game on the planet, one that’s capable of bringing large crowds to thundering crescendos in ways not a lot of things can do. At its lowest points, though, stuff happens that makes being a fan incredibly hard.

I wrote the rest of this section out before the Test. I’m not sure I could have done so after seeing that. My condolences go out to the horse’s connections and fans.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I scratched down to two $10 win bets. Be the Boss got nailed at the wire, Speaking Scout had too much to do late, and I dropped $20.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll try to extract some value from my best bet of the day, #4 GYPSY TALES in the sixth. In addition to a $28 win bet on that one, I’ll single her in $4 doubles starting in the fifth, with #1 GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS/#1A DURKIN’S CALL and #3 HIGHER QUALITY, and ending in the seventh, with #2 POSITIVE MESSAGE, #9 IT WASN’T ME, and #12 FANCY STAX. Finally, I’ll play a $2 Pick Three starting in the fifth using all of those horses.

TOTAL WAGERED: $60.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Saturday: 3-for-12
Meet: 19-for-77

Best Bet: Gypsy Tales, Race 6
Longshot: Higher Quality, Race 5

R1

Weigh the Risks
Later Darling
Dubb entry

#8 WEIGH THE RISKS (7/2): Is bred up and down for turf and has every right to be ready to run on debut. This daughter of Mendelssohn and a Candy Ride mare goes out for powerhouse connections after fetching $205,000 at auction last fall; #3 LATER DARLING (9/2): Boasts a few strong turf workouts ahead of her debut for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. Offspring of More Than Ready tend to like the lawn, and she’ll be a contender if she can run to her drills; #1 IT’S HOT IN HERE (5-1): Has European, turf-heavy pedigree and comprises half of Chad Brown’s 1-2 punch in this field. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride, and she’s got as good a chance as most of them in this wide-open lid-lifter.

R2

Ways and Means
Calle Amada
Managing Mischief

#5 WAYS AND MEANS (5/2): Has been training very well ahead of her unveiling, and that includes a very strong five-furlong gate drill here on July 23rd. In a field of several well-meant firsters, that workout jumps off the page, and judging by the rest of her tab, that’s not an outlier; #2 CALLE AMADA (5-1): Debuts for Pletcher, attracts John Velazquez, and brought a hefty $410,000 price tag at auction last summer. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because offspring of sire Street Sense may want a bit more ground than this six-furlong distance; #8 MANAGING MISCHIEF (8-1): Sold for $160,000 despite a pretty modest pedigree, and the last two works hint that she’s coming into form ahead of her unveiling. If you’re looking for value in a race with some of the biggest names on the circuit, this may be the one you want to use.

R3

Shinfull
U Should B Dancing
Crowding Out

#7 SHINFULL (3-1): Drops into the straight claiming ranks in her first start for Linda Rice, who’s as good as anyone with new acquisitions. First-call rider Jose Ortiz hops aboard, and she should be going the right direction late; #3 U SHOULD B DANCING (4-1): Makes a similar class move, with a similar running style, and attracts Flavien Prat. She ran in some pretty fast races downstate earlier this year, and this drop may be what she needs to bounce back; #1 CROWDING OUT (6-1): Loves this turf course and has shown plenty of early zip, which should be an asset from the rail. Her last-out effort is an easy throw-out given the trouble she had at the start, and she should be prominent from the jump.

R4

Whatlovelookslike
Myriskyaffair
Federalist Papers

#3 WHATLOVELOOKSLIKE (9/2): Comes in after winning two in a row downstate and stretches out to a marathon distance. However, she’s bred to love such a route, and Prat sees fit to ride back. She also looks like one of the main speed horses in here, and that doesn’t hurt; #5 MYRISKYAFFAIR (9/2): Has suffered a few hard-luck losses of late, but seems to run the same sort of speed figure every time out and has shown she can go very long. It also helps that her lone wet-track race was a good one, so if it rains and they move this to the main track, look out; #6 FEDERALIST PAPERS (6-1): Was a close-up third at this distance last time out, and she didn’t get much pace to run at that day. She’s won over this turf course before, and she’d benefit from a faster-than-expected early pace.

R5

Higher Quality
Baker entry
Hammerin Aamer

#3 HIGHER QUALITY (8-1): Flopped in a Grade 3 at Monmouth, where he clearly had no business running. He returns to this claiming level, where he ran three strong races in a row prior to that ambitiously-spotted endeavor, and I think he could sit an ideal stalking trip; BAKER ENTRY (3-1): I prefer #1 GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS, who does his best work at this distance and could have plenty of pace to rally into. Of his six career wins, four have come at this one-mile trip; #7 HAMMERIN AAMER (7/2): Has been around forever and will make his 65th career start in this spot. His 0-for-9 local record isn’t ideal, but most of those races have come against much better horses, and this barn does very well with horses first off the claim.

R6

Gypsy Tales
Before You Go Go
Helcia

#4 GYPSY TALES (5/2): Did everything but win last time out, when she was second beaten a nose at Ellis Park and beat the third-place finisher by nine lengths. I’m expecting improvement at second asking, especially given the exceptional two-back work, which is something I love seeing in Steve Asmussen trainees; #9 BEFORE YOU GO GO (3-1): Draws a cushy outside post for her unveiling and boasts an improving work tab for Pletcher. This daughter of champion sprinter Mitole appears to have inherited some of her sire’s speed; #6 HELCIA (8-1): Turned in an impressive “breeze” at this year’s OBS sale and sold for $600,000. She’s not necessarily bred to be a sprinter, but the two-back gate drill looks great and Chad Brown can certainly win with first-time starters.

R7

It Wasn’t Me
Fancy Stax
Positive Message

#9 IT WASN’T ME (9/2): Drops into the maiden claiming ranks for aggressive connections and may have needed her last-out run at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Even so, she made a big middle move that day before flattening out, and I’m expecting improvement here; #12 FANCY STAX (6-1): Ran well when third in her debut downstate despite some trouble. The far outside post isn’t ideal, to be sure, but her pedigree says this two-turn trip won’t be an issue, and at least we know she can pass other horses; #2 POSITIVE MESSAGE (15-1): Merits a long look at a big price in her second start off a layoff, one in which she drops in for a tag for the first time. She’s shown early speed against better horses, several of whom have turned into stakes winners, and there’s every chance she gets comfortable and hangs on for a piece of it.

R8

Becky’s Joker
Saratoga Secret
Here U Come Again

#10 BECKY’S JOKER (7/2): Much of the way you’ll handicap the Grade 2 Adirondack hinges on your view of the Grade 3 Schuylerville. I think that race was legitimate, and the 21-1 winner has since turned in two strong workouts ahead of her second career start; #6 SARATOGA SECRET (8-1): Didn’t run poorly when second in that race and has since turned in two solid works of her own. The rider change to Flavien Prat is a notable one, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see a career-best performance; #3 HERE U COME AGAIN (5/2): Never looked like a loser in her debut at Ellis Park and tries tougher competition here. If there’s any hesitation, it’s because the two local works sure seem significantly slower than the ones she had prior to her unveiling. At her likely price, I’ll try to beat her.

R9

April Antics (MTO)
Strand of Gold
Dontmesswithtess

I’m going to be honest: Other than thinking #7 STRAND OF GOLD (6-1) is bred to like this marathon distance and could be on an upswing, I don’t have a clue. If you’re playing in the multi-race exotics, go as deep as you can.

R10

Forward Move
Prix de West
Stow On the Wold

#3 FORWARD MOVE (5/2): Faltered as an 8/5 favorite last time out, but I think he’s got plenty of room to move forward here. This is a softer field, he’s got a start under his belt, and this barn is starting to heat up; #9 PRIX DE WEST (8-1): Didn’t do much running in his debut back in April, but switches to turf and drops down into the maiden claiming ranks. His pedigree was impressive enough to merit a $150,000 price tag at auction in 2021, and I’m willing to give him another shot; #2 STOW ON THE WOLD (7/2): Has run well against maiden special weight foes and is yet another runner dropping in for a tag for the first time. This barn is a bit chilly right now, but his usual race gives him a shot in the Sunday finale.