BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,133.25

I’ve got one more day left at Saratoga before I fly back to the West Coast on Monday night. We all know it’s been an extremely difficult meet, for any number of reasons. I’ve said numerous times, in-person and on social media, that if something can go wrong this summer in upstate New York, it probably will.

Saturday’s events, though, spurred a unanimous, massive sigh of relief from the crowd at the Spa. Significant storms barreled through New York, and while we got a few showers during the day, the card went off without a hitch. The Pick Five seeded with an extra $100,000 drew seven figures in handle, Rhyme Schemes blew away the field in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special, and Casa Creed, one of the coolest horses in training, captured his second straight renewal of the Grade 1 Fourstardave.

I need to be careful not to minimize the struggles of this meet to date, because that would be a mistake. Breakdowns have happened (one of which is the worst one I’ve ever seen), weather has been an issue, nearby power lines have come down, and a hastily-announced surface switch on a big day left scrambling handicappers positively furious. On Saturday, though, Saratoga felt like Saratoga, and that’s a step in the right direction.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: It was a good day all around, with six top-pick winners and a profit in this section. Rheaume was left with too much to do late and only managed a third-place finish, but Spinning Colors won at a bit of a price and keyed a nice exacta. In total, a $50 investment returned $111.75.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the first half of the card. First, let’s roll with $3 doubles starting in the second with #2 NIKITIS, #3 SEA DANCER, and #9 DR. RAY D. and ending in the third with #5 LASTCHANCEATGLORY. I’ll also single Lastchanceatglory to start $3 doubles that end in the fourth with #4 CITY FEVER, #5 AMERICAN KNOW HOW, and #7 CUMBERLAND. I’ll combine all of those horses in a $1 Pick Three starting in the second, and finally, I’ll put $23 on Lastchanceatglory to win.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Saturday: 6-for-11
Meet: 39-for-126

Best Bet: Magic Tap, Race 8
Longshot: Khozeiress, Race 7

R1

Exhilarate
Genetics
Clearly a Test

#1 EXHILARATE (4-1): Debuted by rallying for third going shorter downstate, and everything about her pedigree says she’ll improve with distance and experience. The stretchout to seven furlongs should help this daughter of Elate, who did lots of good things going longer; #5 GENETICS (6-1): Completes a strong 1-2 punch for Bill Mott, who also trains my top pick. She’s got several strong works and fetched $525,000 at last September’s Keeneland sale; #7 CLEARLY A TEST (5/2): Was fourth in her debut on opening day and has every right to improve off of that performance. Of those in here that have run before, she clearly has the fastest speed figures; the question is, was that number legitimate? With races involving young 2-year-olds, that’s sometimes murky.

R2

Nikitis
Dr. Ray D
Sea Dancer

#2 NIKITIS (3-1): Hammered for $535,000 at OBS earlier this year despite a pretty modest pedigree, so she must’ve impressed a few people. She has a recent five-furlong gate drill that’s very strong and hints she wants this two-turn route; #9 DR. RAY D. (6-1): Made up some ground late to be third in her debut for a barn whose firsters aren’t usually fully cranked. Javier Castellano hops aboard this daughter of Constitution, whose offspring can certainly be better going long; #3 SEA DANCER (9/2): Comes out of the same race as my second choice. She was fourth that day, and while she’s another that could certainly move forward, Flavien Prat hopping off is a legitimate concern.

R3

Lastchanceatglory
Jemography
Senor Jobim

#5 LASTCHANCEATGLORY (2-1): Has won five of his last seven starts dating back to July of 2022 and seems like a very formidable favorite here. He cuts back a bit after emerging victorious at this level earlier in the meet, and that day’s runner-up came back to win; #2 JEMOGRAPHY (5-1): Is protected from being claimed, which is an angle I’m always fond of. I think that signals the barn likes the horse and doesn’t want to lose it. He was third at this level when last seen back in February and has won 11 of 44 lifetime starts; #7 SENOR JOBIM (8-1): Hasn’t won in a while but may have needed his last-out effort. The 9-year-old was third that day, but he’s got a decent late kick and could benefit from a speed duel early on.

R4

City Fever
Cumberland
American Know How

#4 CITY FEVER (5/2): Came up just short in his debut earlier in the meet, where he missed by a nose and may have been compromised by a rough start. Irad sees fit to ride back, and a step forward with experience probably gets the job done; #7 CUMBERLAND (6-1): Was vanned off after a clunker last time out at Belmont, so I have no problem drawing a line through that race. He adds blinkers for George Weaver, and his races earlier this year at Gulfstream were solid; #5 AMERICAN KNOW HOW (5-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits and showed significant improvement that day at odds of 24-1. Whether or not that was a fluke remains to be seen, but he’s a contender if he can replicate that effort.

R5

Paddington (MTO)
Operation Torch
Brown entry

#4 OPERATION TORCH (6/5): Was second behind Program Trading last time out, and that one came right back to win a stakes race earlier this summer. This field seems significantly weaker than that one, and he seems tough to go against assuming this stays on turf; BROWN ENTRY (2-1): #1A ACTIVIST INVESTING hasn’t run since October, but gets Lasix for the first time and has been working consistently for one of the top barns on the circuit. He’s a contender if he’s ready to run; #3 OUR DREAM RYE’D (12-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while but has also been running against some very good horses. Add in that he’s been gelded since his last start, and I think he could get a piece of this at a big price.

R6

Echo Lake
Zadorsky
Lady Prospect

#5 ECHO LAKE (4-1): Debuts for Chad Brown off of a few strong four-furlong drills. Of the three foals to race out of this dam, two are winners, and the dam herself is kin to graded stakes-placed mare Divine Elegance; #2 ZADORSKY (5/2): Has an experience edge over this group and comes in off of two races at Ellis Park. How that form will translate to Saratoga is tricky to guess, but the July 28th work hints she can handle this surface; #9 LADY PROSPECT (6-1): Comes from a barn with less-than-impressive first-out numbers, but she’s been working well and attracts Luis Saez, who may have had a few options in here. There’s some class in her female family, and she draws well for her unveiling here.

R7

Vittorio
Guntown
Khozeiress

#1 VITTORIO (7/5): Hasn’t won in quite a while but merits a reluctant top pick in a puzzling optional claimer. Irad hopping on is always a notable rider switch, and that two-back race at this distance was a swiftly-run event where the winner came right back to win again; #2 GUNTOWN (3-1): Improved first off the claim for Linda Rice when second out of the Wilson chute and cuts back in distance here. He’s hit the board in both of his prior seven-furlong starts and should be running well late; #3 KHOZEIHERESS (8-1): Has done good work at Gulfstream, where he hasn’t been worse than third in six career starts. That includes a hard-luck second in the Carry Back last time out, and while this is a much different surface, he’s a contender if he brings his form with him.

R8

Magic Tap
Dreamlike
Film Star

#7 MAGIC TAP (5/2): Lost a photo last time out at Ellis Park when he ran into Tapit’s Conquest, who’s a talented runner at his best. His two-back win was excellent, and I really love this Asmussen work pattern when it pops up. I see a two-back bullet and a last-out maintenance work, which to me hints this barn has him where they want him; #3 DREAMLIKE (3-1): Romped over maidens last time out after finishing third behind Lord Miles in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. I don’t think he beat a ton that day, though the runner-up did win Friday, and my guess is he’ll be the one that goes favored, not my top pick; #5 FILM STAR (4-1): Has run second on four straight occasions, including once here going a bit longer. He fits on speed figures and does have an experience edge over the two likely favorites.

R9

He’smyhoneybadger
Willy Boi
Shooters Shoot

#7 HE’SMYHONEYBADGER (5-1): Has a last-out effort that hits me as a total throw-out. It was such a stark departure from the form he showed two and three back, and if he can get back to that type of effort here, I think he’ll be a tough customer; #2 WILLY BOI (9/2): Gets significant class relief after spending most of the past two years going against much better horses. He was third in last year’s Grade 1 Vanderbilt behind Jackie’s Warrior, and he’s shown he enjoys this tricky seven-furlong distance; #6 SHOOTERS SHOOT (7/2): Goes third off the layoff and gets some class relief after running into several stakes-caliber sprinters last time out. He hasn’t won in quite a while, but like many in here, he’s been running against classy horses and has placed in a few stakes races himself.

R10

Uncashed
Gaslight Dancer
No Nay Hudson

#4 UNCASHED (3-1): Has reeled off four wins in a row, including one in an off-the-turf stakes race here earlier this summer. The bottom side of his pedigree has plenty of turf, and when Larry Rivelli gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #2 GASLIGHT DANCER (5-1): May have bounced last time out off of a two-back stakes score at Keeneland. His record looks considerably better if you toss his race on Breeders’ Cup day last year, which was probably just too far for him; #5 NO NAY HUDSON (6-1): Broke a long drought last time out at Churchill and comes into the Mahony off of a four-furlong bullet drill over the Oklahoma’s turf course. He showed a new dimension in that recent score, which should give his rider plenty of options here.