SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/16/23)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,083.25

The folks behind the Preakness Stakes are actively trying to move the second leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown. Predictably, this has drawn the usual firestorm of Triple Crown debate, with traditionalists going against those who believe the Preakness simply has to be moved to preserve the race’s viability.

My stance is different from…well, from that of pretty much anyone. I don’t think you change the races. I DO think you change the way horses are bred.

Thoroughbreds simply aren’t bred to run often anymore. They’re bred for whatever “brilliance” is, which nobody can define but apparently shows up a lot at 2-year-old sales where still-growing horses are asked to go all-out for an eighth of a mile over souped-up tracks. In many instances, that race, against nothing but a clock, is the most important one they’ll ever run.

I’ve talked to breeders who hate when I make this argument. I respect them, but I disagree. At a minimum, can’t we admit parts of the system are backwards and do something about it?

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: This one hurt. Lastchanceatglory ran well, but finished second behind my 9-1 third choice. As such, I dropped $50.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll go to the third race, where I’m betting the August 3rd event a few favorites exit is a weak one. I’ll try to beat those horses by using #2 TIMED OUT and #6 VITAEMI on top of $5 exactas that use those two, #1 SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN, and #7 ITS COLD IN DEHERE underneath.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Sunday: 3-for-10
Meet: 42-for-136

Best Bet: Showemyourheels, Race 9
Longshot: Vitaemi, Race 3

R1

Grab the Glory
Run for Your Honey
Bernietakescharge

#9 GRAB THE GLORY (5-1): Has disappointed in a few starts so far but gets another shot from me thanks to the added distance, which she’s bred to love. Her two turf starts to date weren’t that bad, and assuming this stays on the lawn, I think there’s plenty to like; #5 RUN FOR YOUR HONEY (9/2): Has shown more early speed than any other runner in this field and may make the lead by default. She’s run alright on both turf and dirt to this point and may be the one they have to catch; #2 BERNIETAKESCHARGE (6-1): Debuted with a decent third-place finish at a price earlier this month and has every right to improve at second asking. She showed an ability to rate, which isn’t easy for most first-time starters to do.

R2

Tres Chic
Dark Princess
Graceful

This is an absolutely horrible race where I have no strong opinion. #5 TRES CHIC (6-1) is a top pick solely because she’s had some excuses in her two races to date and comes in off of a few OK workouts. If you’re playing this race, go as deep as you can.

R3

Vitaemi
Timed Out
Suspended Campaign

#6 VITAEMI (9/2): Dueled through very fast fractions last time out in her local debut, and I don’t think she’ll have to work quite as hard to make the lead here. She’s proven at this distance and seems plenty talented enough to spring an upset; #2 TIMED OUT (7/2): Has run several solid races at Finger Lakes, comes in off of two bullet drills, and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., when that rider probably had a few options. Her lone recent run at this distance wasn’t bad, and she can win this on her best day; #1 SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN (6/5): Goes first off the claim for Linda Rice after a last-out win at this route. As I mentioned earlier, I simply don’t think that race was a great one, and at this one’s likely price, I’ll try to beat her.

R4

Shigeko (MTO)
World Traveler
Explosive Exchange

#5 WORLD TRAVELER (7/2): May benefit from the likely race shape as a closer going against many runners with early speed. The faster they go early on, the better this one’s chances figure to be; #3 EXPLOSIVE EXCHANGE (8-1): Is better than he showed last time out, when he may have bounced off of an impressive two-back score. Joel Rosario sees fit to ride, and if nothing else, he’ll be heard from out of the gate; #8 THREE GIRLS (6-1): Graduated against maiden claimers last time out and never looked like a loser on that occasion. She does take a step up in class here, but it’s not like this is the strongest race for the level and perhaps she’s in strong form.

R5

Chileno (MTO)
Unleash the Power
Shinsun

#10 UNLEASH THE POWER (3-1): Ran second behind My Sea Cottage last time out, and that one ran reasonably well in the Grade 1 Fourstardave last weekend. He’s been chasing far better horses than these of late, and this represents as good a chance as any for him to break the drought; #4 SHINSUN (4-1): Is a closer in a race with some speed signed on, which gives him a shot in what seems like a pretty wide-open event. He might have moved a bit too early last time, and he fits on speed figures; #5 FRONT MAN (6-1): Was a bit one-paced when fourth last time out, but won two back and has a history of running well on turf courses with some give in the ground. If the turf course is less than firm, I think he moves up considerably.

R6

Cupid’s Heart
Portage
Cuz Ur Pretty

#7 CUPID’S HEART (9/5): Ran a close-up second in a swiftly-run allowance race earlier in the meet, one where she was four lengths clear of the third-place finisher. The cutback to six furlongs may only help her, and I think she’s strictly the one to beat; #8 PORTAGE (7/2): Improved in her second start for Linda Rice to break her maiden in smart fashion. This isn’t an easy spot to face winners for the first time, but she draws a great post and could still be improving; #4 CUZ UR PRETTY (9/2): Ships in from Finger Lakes, where she’s won four of five lifetime starts and has done so in impressive fashion. This is certainly a class test, but she could prove to be fastest early and leave this field with something to do turning for home.

R7

South Street
Freeze Pop
Lucky Lucky Luke

#7 SOUTH STREET (even): Hasn’t won in quite a while and was a distant third last time out, but he drops in class significantly and that could wake him up. He’s won going two turns before, and his best effort almost certainly beats these; #3 FREEZE POP (4-1): Goes first off the claim for Robertino Diodoro, who’s been quiet this meet but can certainly move new acquisitions forward. He and my top pick are the only two horses in here to win going two turns on dirt, and that matters; #2 LUCKY LUCKY LUKE (7/2): Comes in off of a failed turf experiment last time out and returns to his preferred surface. His three-back win was very sharp, and perhaps he was just in too deep against allowance foes in his two-back try.

R8

Amanda’s Folly (MTO)
Orange Freeze
Smokie Eyes

#7 ORANGE FREEZE (5-1): Has stepped forward considerably in her last two starts, one of which was a win in a similar stakes race. She should get some speed to run at again here, and when this barn gets horses on the right path, they tend to stay there; #2 SMOKIE EYES (6-1): Has a record that looks far better if you toss her races at Belmont Park. Perhaps she hasn’t improved from two to three, but her two-turn races look sharp and she’d be a contender if she can get back to that form; #5 SILVER SKILLET (2-1): Comes in off of a win against older, but hits me as a bad favorite. That day’s runner-up is a money-burner that did so again last week, and while she fits on figures, I think she’s an underlay at her likely price.

R9

Marley’s Ghost (MTO)
Showemyourheels
Red Butterfly

#2 SHOWEMYOURHEELS (2-1): Hasn’t been seen since November, but has been training steadily ahead of her return and attracts Luis Saez. Her lone race over this turf course was a pretty good one, and she looms large if she’s ready to run; #4 RED BUTTERFLY (7/2): Has run well twice against similar company this year and was fourth behind a winner I think is a bit live earlier in the card. This barn has been cold this meet, but she fits on figures; BOND ENTRY (5-1): I prefer #1A PAUCILOQUENT, who needs a scratch to draw in. She’s shown an ability to close in her last several starts, and this barn’s horses are punching above their weight class at this stand.

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