BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,058.25

My apologies for a bonkers schedule of posting content this week. I’ve been reeling ever since my travel misadventures earlier in the week (which brought out some members of the “Andrew posted it, so it’s a cardinal sin” club on Twitter), and I’ve been trying to get my body and mind back to normal ever since.

I’m anticipating returning to such a schedule with Wednesday’s content. By then, I also sincerely hope whoever is doing a rain dance in upstate New York decides to stop.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: The 11th was taken off the turf, which cancelled my late Pick Four ticket.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth, where I’m not at all sold on morning line favorite #1 CATHERINE WHEEL. I’ll play exactas going against that one. My $4 plays use #3 MOST OF ALL and #5 CANDIED on top of those two, #6 MUNNY ROCKETTE, and #10 ELLA ELIZABETH underneath.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Saturday: 5-for-11
Meet: 54-for-176

Best Bet: Chalky Cat, Race 10
Longshot: Most of All, Race 5

R1

Serpe entry
Red Hot Chick
My Lion

SERPE ENTRY (5-1): Both #1 FAST KIMMIE and #1A MISCREANT can win this. The former has plenty of back class and drops down after two races that weren’t bad, while the latter comes back to turf and has a big shot if she draws in off the AE list; #8 RED HOT CHICK (10-1): Was one-paced last time out in her first try against winners, but that was a fairly fast race for the level. This is probably the right spot for her, and she seems like a contender at a bit of a price; #3 MY LION (7/2): Is a European shipper getting Lasix for the first time, which always gets my attention. She hadn’t been running in the classiest of races overseas, but it’s also not as though she has to be much in order to win her first stateside start.

R2

Alpine Queen
Sue Ellen Mishkin
Backed by Gold

#4 ALPINE QUEEN (2-1): Is one of several class-droppers in this spot, but gets my attention because she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well. The rider switch to Luis Saez is a big one, and it helps she ran big to win here a season ago; #5 SUE ELLEN MISHKIN (3-1): Comes in after tiring against a pair of starter allowance fields, and this is a significantly easier spot. She definitely wants to be on the lead, which could be an issue with so much other zip signed on, but she’s also got every right to wake up on the class drop; #2 BACKED BY GOLD (8-1): Hasn’t shown much in her last few starts, but she might be the only closer in this race. She does have form from 2022 that’s not bad, and I think she’s a threat to clunk up for a piece of it.

R3

Ok Honey (MTO)
Aziza
Tass

#1 AZIZA (3-1): Won two in a row before an off-the-turf clunker at Laurel last time out. She gets back to her preferred surface in this spot, Flavien Prat hops back aboard, and she should be prominent from the jump; #3 TASS (5/2): Found some strong form last year when she won a stakes race at Colonial Downs, and her best race would beat these. She was third against similar without much of an excuse last time, though, and Luis Saez opts to ride another runner; #6 CAFE FLEUR (2-1): Came off a long layoff to run second last time out. These connections merit respect, but the likely pace scenario is a concern for this one-run closer, and she didn’t beat much two back before going to the sidelines.

R4

Amidst Waves
She’s Fire
Gram

#3 AMIDST WAVES (8/5): Comes in off of two wins in a row, including one in the Colleen at Monmouth. This barn is red hot at the moment, and any further progression would make the likely favorite tough in the Bolton Landing; #5 SHE’S FIRE (4-1): Won nicely two starts back before not getting her desired trip in the Colleen. A repeat of the two-back effort would give her a genuine shot, and we may get a slightly-bigger price given the last-out clunker; #4 GRAM (7/2): Overcame some trouble to win her local debut last time out. This is a much tougher group, to be sure, but Joel Rosario rides back for Christophe Clement and she should be moving the right way late.

R5

Candied
Most of All
Munny Rockette

#5 CANDIED (7/2): Debuts for Todd Pletcher off of a string of exceptional gate works. The big field may ensure we get a bettable price, and I think this daughter of Candy Ride is an exciting prospect; #3 MOST OF ALL (10-1): Makes her first start for Bill Mott and also has some strong drills from the gate to her credit. Mott runs two here, and while my third choice will get plenty of attention at the windows, this one may be the better value; #6 MUNNY ROCKETTE (6-1): Hammered for a cool million earlier this year at the OBS sale and merits respect based on her work there. The work tab looks fine, and she’s got every right to be a runner.

R6

Classy Mischief (MTO)
Memorialize
Snow Dance

#7 MEMORIALIZE (4-1): Had a very eventful debut at Colonial Downs last month, as she had major equipment trouble after a horrible start. Somehow, she rallied for second, and it’s safe to assume she got a lot out of that initial start; #10 SNOW DANCE (6-1): Ran well to be a close-up third in her debut at this route earlier in the meet. The outside draw isn’t ideal, but Lezcano rides back and she’s eligible to move forward with a start under her belt; #8 LAMORNA (7/2): Started slowly in her debut going shorter, but did kick on late to be beaten less than two lengths. Her pedigree says two turns won’t be much of a problem, and the recent bullet drill says she’s doing well at the moment.

R7

Mount Up
Chileno
Pledgeofallegiance

#4 MOUNT UP (8-1): Ran second at this route last time out against similar, but was wide that day and lost a fair bit of ground. Irad sees fit to ride back for Pletcher, and I’d be pretty surprised if we got the morning line price come post time; #10 CHILENO (8-1): Won a starter allowance at this route not long ago for his first win in more than a year. This is probably a tougher group, but the Wilson chute is a tricky route and there’s every chance he’s touting himself as a “horse for course;” #3 PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE (6-1): Was fourth in the slop going longer early in the meet. This is probably a better distance for him, and his wins two and three back were both pretty sharp.

R8

Magico
Digitize
Black Rain

#2 MAGICO (3-1): Ran second in his debut, which came over an off track at Belmont Park. He was nearly 10 lengths clear of that day’s third-place finisher and seems to be training well up here ahead of his second career start; #7 DIGITIZE (5/2): Is the other half of a solid 1-2 punch for trainer Chad Brown. He’s run okay a few times, but the three-month layoff is a concern, and while Monmouth Park works aren’t as much of a disqualifying factor for this barn as they used to be, it’s still worth noting he’s been down there, not up here, for quite a while; #9 BLACK RAIN (9/2): Makes his first start for Todd Pletcher, who’s enlisted Irad to ride. It’s not easy to debut going seven furlongs, so that’s a question mark, but the pedigree and works are solid and he does draw well.

R9

Gate Runner (MTO)
Java Buzz
Forwardly

#9 JAVA BUZZ (7/2): Makes the most sense to me in what seems like a puzzling race. I’m tossing the last-out effort, as five furlongs is just way shorter than he wants to go. Anything close to his prior races going a mile would give him a big shot; #10 FORWARDLY (5-1): Almost certainly needed his last-out effort, which doubled as his first start since December. He takes a significant class drop to run here and may be talented enough to overcome the far-outside draw; #3 QUALITY G (3-1): Has found trouble in each of his last several starts and possesses enough talent to boast a few placings in stakes races. Having said that, he’s far from an easy horse to handle, seems to put himself in weird spots, and hits me as an underlay at his likely price.

R10

Chalky Cat
Mudville Nine
Under the Knife

#9 CHALKY CAT (5/2): Hasn’t run horribly against maiden special weight foes and drops in for a tag in the Sunday finale. This certainly seems like a weaker group than the ones he’s been going against, and he looks like a formidable favorite; #10 MUDVILLE NINE (4-1): Led for most of the way last time out going a bit longer and gets a cutback in distance he should appreciate here. The outside draw should help him, and the lone work since that effort wasn’t a bad one; #5 UNDER THE KNIFE (5-1): Showed speed in an off-the-turf event last time out before fading to finish third. Irad gets on for this one, and at a minimum, he should be able to be a pace factor here.