BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $976.75

We’re 14 days into this year’s Saratoga meet, and for most public handicappers across sections with pick boxes, it’s been tough sledding. The rule of thumb I’ve always used is that you want to average three winners a day for 40 days, to get to 120 for the meet. Very few public handicappers are at that clip, and this is a very sharp bunch.

I say that as a prelude to a hat-tip. Wise Owl’s performance Sunday was outstanding. He nailed the first four winners cold and now has 44 through 14 days. It’s a heck of a start, especially at a time when a bunch of us (self included) have stumbled out of the blocks. Now, it’s time to play catchup.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Shesalittle Edgy won, but I had nothing with that one in exactas or doubles and dropped $30.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: As I type this, there’s rain in the forecast ahead of a turf-heavy card, which could render this meaningless (remember, surface changes void all action in this section). If the fifth stays on the turf, though, I have to bet #3 SERIOUS LADY, who’s bred to be a runner and may be a bit of a price. In addition to a $12 win bet, I’ll key her in $3 exactas above and below #5 MARVELOUS MADISON, #7 ADA MAY, and #9 CARA’S DREAMWEAVER.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Evvie Jets, Race 8
Longshot: Braca, Race 3

R1

Zarak the Brave
Kiyomori
Hold Hard

#3 ZARAK THE BRAVE (1-1): Depending on which PP’s you use, you may not see his recent resume. Brisnet and TwinSpires do not show his races from 2023 and 2024, which include a fourth-place finish at Cheltenham against some top-tier steeplechase horses in England and several stakes scores. Anything close to his European form would make him a handful in the Jonathan Kiser; #2 KIYOMORI (4-1): Turned a corner late last year and exits a third-place finish in a similar-level stakes race in his 2024 debut. Unlike many others in here, he’s shown he can win without Lasix, and the flexible running style also helps; #4 HOLD HARD (6-1): Has won two in a row and sure looks like a horse hitting peak form as a 5-year-old. The spot he exits is a salty one, as several horses that finished behind him came back to win at next asking.

R2

Certified Loverboy
Super Chief
Squire Creek

#2 CERTIFIED LOVERBOY (8/5): Took a massive step forward first off the claim for Linda Rice when he freaked by more than eight lengths in a starter allowance downstate. He comes back to the claiming ranks here, which is a bit of a concern, but his lone effort here was a win and he was second at this level two back; #4 SUPER CHIEF (9/2): Makes his first start on this circuit after what appears to be a private purchase since his last-out effort at Santa Anita. He chased The Chosen Vron two back in the Grade 3 San Carlos, and he has back races that would make him a player in here; #6 SQUIRE CREEK (2-1): Started his career 2-for-2, but has since gone 0-for-7, including several recent “speed and fade” efforts in Kentucky. I’m not sure he moves up going this seven-furlong route, and while his best race probably beats these, I’m not willing to swallow a short price thinking that happens.

R3

Irish Tenor
Braca
Egyptian Quest

#8 IRISH TENOR (2-1): Comes back to the turf and takes a slight drop in class for what’s probably a “now or never” situation. His lone turf effort came in a decent spot for the level downstate, and he’s got early speed in a sprint that otherwise seems pretty light on it; #3 BRACA (15-1): Merits a long look at a price getting on turf in his first start off the claim. He’s by Central Banker and out of an Artie Schiller mare, which is grass through and through, and his dirt races haven’t been bad. There’s a chance he’s getting to do what he wants, and he’ll be on all of my tickets; #7 EGYPTIAN QUEST (3-1): Came back running off the bench last time out when third in a maiden special weight event at Monmouth. I don’t know what he ran against that day, and he may need more pace than he’s likely to get, but it’s not illogical to think he responds to running for a tag for the first time.

R4

Toscano
Bob John Ray
Jaa Mode

#5 TOSCANO (3-1): Tries two turns for the first time, but he’s bred to love it and hasn’t done much wrong to this point. He followed up a first-out score at Hawthorne with a decent second here last month, and that day’s third-place finisher has since come back to clear this condition; #8 BOB JOHN RAY (5/2): Flattened out a bit in his first two-turn effort back in May, but has a right to improve given his relative inexperience and stamina-oriented pedigree. These connections must be respected, even given the outside draw and the short run into the first turn; #1 JAA MODE (9/2): Ships up from Parx first off the claim by a high-percentage barn and runs against state-bred competition. I’m not crazy about Parx form and how well it can travel, but he does have early speed and should be able to make the lead from the rail going into the first turn.

R5

Serious Lady
Marvelous Madison
Ada May

#3 SERIOUS LADY (8-1): Boasts a solid work tab for a trainer who can pop at a price with first-out turfers. She also has a very interesting pedigree, being kin to Grade 3-winning grass horse Neecie Marie and having a dam who’s kin to both Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike and Grade 2-winning 2-year-old Llanarmon; #5 MARVELOUS MADISON (7/2): Will take plenty of money based on the connections and is another with plenty of pedigree. Her dam has thrown five winners, including a couple of stakes horses, and her second dam, stakes winner Jesse’s Justice, is a half to stakes-winning turfer Willard Straight; #7 ADA MAY (12-1): Possesses a distance-heavy pedigree, being by Candy Ride and out of a Pioneerof the Nile mare. The dam’s two prior foals to race are winners, and the two-back bullet drill from the gate over the Oklahoma track is interesting.

R6

Melle Mel (MTO)
Mean Eileen
Episode

#11 MEAN EILEEN (7/2): Needs a scratch to draw in but merits lots of respect if she does. She sold for the maximum allowed under this condition earlier this year, and she’s been training very well on multiple surfaces ahead of her unveiling; #4 EPISODE (6-1): Has an experience edge over most of this field, and you can draw a line through her last-out effort. She was never comfortable and bolted on the turn that day. Her prior two efforts over synthetic tracks were fairly sharp, and I think she’ll improve on the grass; #10 MASCARA (4-1): Debuts for Wesley Ward, whose first-time starters always merit a second look. This daughter of Caravaggio doesn’t appear to catch the toughest group for this level, and if she’s ready to go right away, she may not have to be much to graduate at first asking.

R7

Hatch
Daddy Knows
Nottoway

#9 HATCH (5/2): Goes first off the claim for Rob Atras in this $10,000 claimer, a race I truly wish was not in the Saratoga condition book. The trainer change here is a big one, and he was competitive against several higher-level groups in each of his last two outings; #6 DADDY KNOWS (8-1): Has hit the board in each of his last five starts and cuts back from a mile to seven furlongs here. He has two wins at the distance and multiple strong efforts at the Spa, and it sure seems like he’ll be prominent early at a bit of a price; #8 NOTTOWAY (15-1): Ships in from Finger Lakes, which is always a trip that gets my attention. This 15-time winner has tactical speed, boasts two wins at this tricky distance, and generally runs the same type of race every time out.

R8

Evvie Jets
Mouffy
Five Towns

#9 EVVIE JETS (7/2): Didn’t have the best of trips in the Grade 1 Diana and gets significant class relief in the De La Rose, where she attracts top turf rider Flavien Prat. Two starts ago, she was beaten less than a length in the Grade 1 Just A Game at this route, and anything close to that effort would make her very, very imposing here; #6 MOUFFY (9/2): Rallied from last to first to win the Perfect Sting downstate despite an awkward break. She’s run well against graded stakes company multiple times, and the continued presence of Frankie Dettori is a big plus; #1 FIVE TOWNS (30-1): Was a distant second in the Grade 3 Gallorette at Pimlico behind Fluffy Socks, who was much the best over a boggy turf course. She won two and three back with solid speed figures, and while a win seems like a big ask, I think she’s sitting on a strong effort at a big price.

R9

Bold Ambition
Always Be Smart
Confabulation

#5 BOLD AMBITION (7/2): Comes in off of two near-misses against decent groups and draws inside of most other speed horses in the Wednesday nightcap. That’s a great spot to be in coming out of the Wilson chute, and the addition of blinkers sure hints that he’ll be sent hard out of the gate; #8 ALWAYS BE SMART (8-1): Gets a massive trainer switch to Linda Rice after running second at this route earlier in the meet. I’m not crazy about the draw or his history of gate issues, but there’s plenty of speed in here, he’s shown a solid closing kick, and he’d benefit from a pace meltdown; #3 CONFABULATION (6-1): Is a puzzling first-time starter who will take money solely because of his barn. I’m not crazy about a $425,000 auction purchase debuting nearly three years later for a $75,000 tag. However, he’s been working well at both Monmouth and Saratoga, and it’s not like he’d need to be a world-beater to best this bunch.