BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,129.43

It’s tough to discuss what happened Sunday and Monday concisely, but I’ll do my best.

Connections with horses at Fair Hill, in Maryland, sent several runners to Saratoga and Monmouth for races on Sunday. They won four races with five entrants, and in multiple instances, these horses blew the doors off their competition at big prices. Back-to-back such winners at Monmouth, though, combined for a record-low daily double given the win prices involved. This means someone (or some group) absolutely, positively hammered that particular wager and, presumably, knew something the general public did not.

Horses from Fair Hill were set to run in races Monday at Presque Isle and Mountaineer, and a source told Pat Cummings of the National Thoroughbred Alliance that bookmakers overseas were potentially on the hook for a hefty sum. However, both runners scratched, and the Mountaineer runner was pulled from its race with 10 minutes to post (when that one was as prohibitive a betting favorite as you’ll see).

An investigation has begun, and as I write this Monday night, I’d wager this is far from over. It’s possible these trainers simply had horses ready to go at Fair Hill and made the most of it. However, the ultra-low double payout has me (and many others) concerned that what actually happened was far more nefarious. For many reasons, I’m skeptical we’ll know the full story in short order (remember, it took the federal government getting involved to make Jason Servis and Jorge Navarro go away), but I’m willing to bet we’ll hear some whoppers along the way.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: In attempting to connect on the Grand Slam, I struck out swinging. Twenty Six Black ran fourth, key horse Hard Circle ran third, and I dropped $38.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the second, where I’m hoping #2 JUNEAU runs back to an OK debut on the drop in for a tag. I’ll have a $20 win bet on that one, and I’ll also play a cold $5 double starting there that singles Juneau and likely third-race favorite #7 LOTS OF KISSES.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

Want to leave a tip? Click here to send it via Venmo!

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Juneau, Race 2
Longshot: Bankthemoneyhoney, Race 6

R1

Cyber Ninja
Philip My Dear
Feeling Festive

#4 CYBER NINJA (5/2): Nearly overcame significant issues last time out when a hard-luck second in the Jonathan Kiser. He should get some pace to close into in the Michael G. Walsh, and a similar type of effort would make him the one to beat in the Wednesday opener; #7 PHILIP MY DEAR (4-1): Interests me the most of the ones likely to go early on. He didn’t sit his desired trip last time at Colonial, where he was seventh of nine early on. He wants to be forward, and that trip led to a solid score two back in May; #3 FEELING FESTIVE (3-1): Is pretty lightly-raced, as this will be just his third start. He comes in off of a professional victory at Colonial, and while this feels like a jump in class, he could certainly have plenty of room to move forward.

R2

Juneau
Business Math
Dream About

#2 JUNEAU (5-1): Runs for a tag for the first time after a disappointing local debut. However, her two-back effort at Churchill wasn’t bad, and she gets a rider upgrade to Luis Saez for this event. If she can channel the mid-June form, she hits me as the one to beat (and we may get a decent price given the last-out clunker); #4 BUSINESS MATH (3-1): May not have cared for the slop in her unveiling, when she was fairly close early on before finishing sixth of seven. She’s another dropping in class, and she does so for a Hall of Fame trainer whose runners tend to get better with experience; #3 DREAM ABOUT (7/2): Debuts for Al Stall, who means business when he ships in. Her works two and three back look solid enough, and while this barn’s numbers with all first-time starters aren’t great (9%, per Brisnet), they’re much better with runners debuting for a tag (24%, per the same source).

R3

Lots of Kisses
R P Byrne
Key Actress

#7 LOTS OF KISSES (7/5): Had a lot of trouble last time out and was still only beaten just a half-length that day. It’s fair to assume she was best in that spot, and if she’s able to get a cleaner trip in this one, Wednesday is likely graduation day; #4 R P BYRNE (3-1): Was second in the race my top pick exits, but sat a much cleaner trip than that rival. She’s got some speed, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her on or near the lead early in her second start off the bench; #2 KEY ACTRESS (4-1): Goes to the barn of Linda Rice and comes back to the grass. She’s had quite a few chances, and her best races have come going two turns rather than one, but Rice is one of the best in the business with new acquisitions and, at a minimum, she’s another that should be forwardly-placed.

R4

Classic Time
Inexorable
Power Attack

#4 CLASSIC TIME (3-1): Takes a significant drop in class and got pretty good over the winter, when he won back-to-back races at Fair Grounds and Oaklawn. Even his fourh-place finish two back wasn’t bad, and if Norm Casse has him ready to go over a surface he won on back in 2024, he’ll be a major player; #5 INEXORABLE (5/2): Won at this distance three back at Keeneland and would benefit from a fast pace. I’m not sure whether or not he’ll get that setup, so his likely price hits me as a slight underlay, but this seven-time winner has back races that more than fit with this bunch; #2 POWER ATTACK (6-1): Hits me as the best of the rest and will look for his fourth win of the season here. He comes back to the dirt, gets Jose Ortiz, and won a very fast race earlier this year at Tampa (albeit against a weaker group).

R5

Adrian (MTO)
Brilliante
Artistic Success

#5 BRILLIANTE (4/5): Isn’t exactly exciting to bet after failing as an even-money favorite last time out, but at least she had excuses that day. She didn’t break well and rated behind a slow early pace. She gets one more chance here, especially considering that it’s not like she lines up against any world-beaters; #8 ARTISTIC SUCCESS (3-1): Feels like the main speed in here, which is always a good thing in two-turn races on the inner turf. She set a legitimate pace for the level last time out before finishing third, and she could have some room to move forward in her third start off the bench for Joe Sharp; #6 GREYJOY (6-1): Has collected minor awards in each of her last two starts at this level and looks competitive again here. This barn has been ice-cold from a win perspective, but five of its 11 runners (as of this writing) have hit the board, so it’s not like horses are running terribly.

R6

Southern Kiss (AE)
Bankthemoneyhoney
Miss Ma’am (AE)

#12 SOUTHERN KISS (3-1): Needs two scratches to run but feels like the one to beat if she draws in. Her debut over yielding going at Ellis Park was solid, as she rallied and led briefly before settling for second. Mark Casse’s enjoyed a great meet to this point, and I’m expecting a move forward if she goes; #4 BANKTHEMONEYHONEY (8-1): Is worth a look at a price in her unveiling. She’s a full sister to a debut winner, and her bottom-side pedigree includes the dams of graded stakes winner Celtic New Year and champion female turfer Perfect Sting, among others. Linda Rice trainees sometimes need a race to get going, but I think this one may be a runner; #14 MISS MA’AM (6-1): Needs even more luck than my top pick as far as drawing in is concerned, but she’s got some things going for her. She made up ground in her debut on dirt, then flashed speed in her first try on the grass. Cutting back to a sprint could be just what she wants.

R7

Under the Moon
Lauren’s Time
In the Queue

#3 UNDER THE MOON (4-1): Has several strong works on her tab ahead of her debut in what hits me as a wide-open baby race for New York-breds. She wasn’t a big auction buy, but her bottom-side pedigree is strong, as her second dam won on debut and placed in multiple stakes races before throwing six winners; #6 LAUREN’S TIME (6-1): Sold for $150,000 at auction last summer and is bred to be precocious. Offspring of sire Yaupon have been running very well, and her dam was a five-time winner that placed in stakes races as a 2-year-old. Add in a few flashy drills for Chad Brown, and there’s plenty to like; #4 IN THE QUEUE (8-1): Showed some speed in her debut and has a right to improve here at a bit of a price. Her two drills since that race both look sharp, and the presence of jockey Luis Saez hints that she’ll be on or near the lead here as well. 

R8

Sailaway
Answered Prayers
Higher Force

#5 SAILAWAY (5-1): Goes from turf to dirt and takes a significant drop in class to run here. Her efforts two and three back going two turns on dirt were very solid, her lone start over this main track was a wire-to-wire score out of the Wilson chute, and she has enough speed to sit an ideal “stalk and pounce” trip; #1 ANSWERED PRAYERS (5/2): Has yet to run a bad race around two turns for Bill Mott and was most recently a close-up second in late-June at Churchill. The rail draw may not be ideal, and she’s a 3-year-old going up against older horses, but she’s also shown some ability and wouldn’t be a surprising winner; #3 HIGHER FORCE (10-1): Feels like the main early speed in this race, and some of her best races have come going two turns while on the lead. She won going a mile last time out downstate after adding blinkers, and while this is a tougher field, I think she could hang on for a piece of it at a price.

R9

Prairie Princess (MTO)
Mistborn
Gum

#9 MISTBORN (8/5): Will likely be a popular single to finish out the Wednesday program, and for good reason. She’s run up against several solid horses in her last two starts and was second last time out behind a runner that repeated at next asking against winners. I don’t love the Monmouth works, but this is a drop in class and she sure looks like the most logical winner; #5 GUN (9/2): Just missed two back at Laurel and had some trouble last time out when third against similar in her local debut. I’m not sure how much she really wants to win given some of her running lines, but she’s consistent and attracts Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez; #7 BOURBON MILK PUNCH (7/2): May be the controlling speed and has a chance if she can get back to her 2025 form for a trainer enjoying lots of success this summer. However, her two races this year leave quite a bit to be desired. Maybe the drop to this level wakes her up, but she’s now 0-for-11, so I’d hesitate to take too short of a price.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,167.43

At least once per Saratoga meet, I must vouch for a New York-specific wager that often gets lost in the shuffle. This is the Grand Slam, a four-race bet where one must pick at least one horse to run third or better in the first three legs before picking the winner of the fourth.

There are days where it’s not a great bet. However, on days where one has a strong opinion in the last leg and can comfortably use three horses or less in the first three legs (using more guarantees at least one losing ticket and isn’t a smart use of your wagering money), it’s worth taking a swing. If you can get to your single with multiple tickets live, you can often extract significant value out of that runner while stretching your bankroll across a four-race sequence.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Revenue Stream scratched, which means all of my action was cancelled.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: After what I said earlier, you know where I’m going. I do have a reasonably strong opinion in the 10th, where I like #8 HARD CIRCLE quite a bit. He’ll single $2 Grand Slam tickets that start in the seventh and go as follows: 1,5,7 with 2 with 2,3,6 with 8. In addition, I’ll have a $20 win bet on Hard Circle, too.

TOTAL WAGERED: $38.

Want to leave a tip? Click here to send it via Venmo!

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Twenty Six Black, Race 8
Longshot: Cararra, Race 3

R1

Frolicking
Poise
Glow of a Rose

#2 FROLICKING (9/5): Is one of a few in the Sunday opener coming in off a break, and she hasn’t run in nine months. However, that initial effort was very good, as she was a close-up second behind a horse that repeated at next asking. Her recent works hint that Brad Cox has her primed for her 3-year-old debut; #3 POISE (2-1): Has a pedigree that says she’ll get better with experience, and she’s improved in every start to date. She helped set a very fast pace last time out at Churchill, and she certainly seems likely to dictate terms here; #1 GLOW OF A ROSE (2-1): Was an 8/5 favorite in her debut at Keeneland last year and ran fine to be third of 11. We haven’t seen her since, and Wesley Ward hasn’t had a great meet to this point, but she gets Lasix for the first time and could be dangerous if she’s ready to go.

R2

Commitment Fund (MTO)
Pay the Piper
Quick Pick

#3 PAY THE PIPER (3-1): Came back running in his first start in four months last time out, as he rallied to be third at this route despite a wide trip. Blinkers come off in this spot, and any sort of a move forward from that effort would make her the one to beat; #4 QUICK PICK (5/2): Debuts for Will Walden and is bred to be a good one. He’s by Oscar Performance and has a bottom-side pedigree that includes a dam, second dam, and third dam that all won stakes races; #1 HOUSING MARKET (7/2): Makes his first start for Chad Brown and attracts Flavien Prat, which figures to attract plenty of attention. His European pedigree is solid, as his dam is kin to a pair of stakes winners, but I have to wonder why he spent so much time at Monmouth this spring. That’s not the red flag it was in the past, but it’s definitely a question mark.

R3

Royal Bobbie
Cararra
Karey

#3 ROYAL BOBBIE (2-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but that last win was over this track, and to be fair, she’s been running against much better horses. She drops in for a $25,000 tag here, half of what she ran for two back at Aqueduct, and I think she’s found her friends in this plater for non-winners of three; #6 CARARRA (6-1): Feels like the controlling speed in here beneath Ricardo Santana, Jr., and that’s always dangerous coming out of the chute. Like my top pick, she hasn’t won in a while, but also like my top pick, she’s spent most of the last two years going against better horses; #9 KAREY (8-1): Draws a pretty lousy post, though we did see a horse win from the 10-hole here Friday. She comes up in class after a win at this route last time out, and while that day’s runner-up flopped at next asking as a favorite, this spot doesn’t seem too much tougher than the one she exits.

R4

Capt Fluff N Stuff
Main Thing
Just Classic

#7 CAPT FLUFF N STUFF (9/2): Was claimed by Danny Gargan last time out and has since turned in three pretty strong works at the Spa. He drops in class a bit for this one, and I think he’s the main speed in a race that doesn’t have that much of it signed on elsewhere. All of that makes him tough here; #2 MAIN THING (7/2): Debuts for an astute outfit and may not have to be great to earn the diploma at first asking. The last two workouts look solid, though it’s fair to wonder why this $85,000 auction purchase is debuting for a $40,000 tag two years later; #6 JUST CLASSIC (2-1): Wouldn’t be a shock, but hits me as a very vulnerable favorite. We haven’t seen him in over a year, when he ran against stakes foes in Texas. He comes back here for a $35,000 claiming price, and it’s not like his numbers tower over those he runs against in this spot. Given his likely price, I’ll try to beat him.

R5

All Star Leigh
Beach Life (AE)
Deuce Dancer

#8 ALL STAR LEIGH (5/2): Ran very well to be second in her debut behind an impressive winner. This isn’t a barn known for first-out success. It’s a patient operation, and it’s fair to assume she’ll improve quite a bit here. If she does, look out; #14 BEACH LIFE (5-1): Set a very fast pace in the race my top pick exits before fading to finish fourth. She needs a few scratches to draw in, but if she does, she and Irad Ortiz, Jr., may be the ones to catch turning into the stretch; #9 DEUCE DANCER (9/2): Debuts off a very fast gate work on August 1st, and there are reasons to believe she’s a good one. She’s kin to, among others, a turfer named Smooth Breeze that won at first asking and placed in a few stakes races. This is another barn whose runners tend to improve with seasoning, but there are some reasons to be bullish.

R6

Paul’s Recovery (MTO)
Vintage Vino
Capricious Outcome

#11 VINTAGE VINO (5-1): Doesn’t draw well in this two-turn event on the inner turf, but he’s a closer in a race with plenty of early speed signed on. Unlike others, he’s shown an ability to pass others late, and if they go very fast early on, that could come in handy; #1 CAPRICIOUS OUTCOME (5/2): Looked home and cooled out on the drop in class last time out, but he nearly got caught. He was 3/5 against a field that looked overmatched that day, and this is his first try against winners. It’s not the strongest group, for sure, but I can’t advise taking a short price given that performance; #10 I CAN SEE THAT (10-1): Is protected from being claimed, which is one of my favorite handicapping angles in a spot like this. He was third at this level before going to the sidelines nine months ago, and this is a barn that does some of its best work with horses that have been on the sidelines for a while.

R7

Lil Tipsy
Rose to Roches
Immaculate Moon

#7 LIL TIPSY (3-1): Is a proven closer that made up ground last time out despite being very, very wide. She’s run several races that would make her a major player in here, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be; #5 ROSE TO RICHES (3-1): Takes a slight class drop into this high-priced maiden claimer and was fourth in the race my top pick exits. That was this one’s first start in almost 11 months, so she’s got a right to improve, but the logical question to ask is, if she’s better now, why the drop in class and the claiming tag?; #1 IMMACULATE MOON (5/2): Runs for the first time since late-August. She was fourth in what looked like a live baby race in her debut, but her second start was a real disappointment and we haven’t seen her since. She’s been working consistently since May, though, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., doesn’t hurt.

R8

Twenty Six Black
John the Beer Man
Determined Kingdom

#2 TWENTY SIX BLACK (5/2): Ran very, very well to win the Harvey Pack here last month and is a logical favorite in the Grade 2 Troy. Unlike most of his rivals, he doesn’t need the lead in order to run well, and he could be in an ideal position to mow them all down in the stretch; #6 JOHN THE BEER MAN (7/2): Won two in a row before finishing a close-up third in the Grade 1 Jaipur on the Belmont undercard. He’s run some big races since returning to the track earlier this year, and while he may not be alone up front early on, he’s the one I like most of the likely pace-setters; #9 DETERMINED KINGDOM (15-1): Shipped to Colonial to win a minor stakes race last time out, and he did so on the lead. I’m not convinced that’s his best game, as he stalked and pounced to take a stakes-caliber optional claimer two back at this route. If he’s able to stalk again here, he could be right there when the real running starts (and at a pretty generous price, to boot).

R9

Mo for the King
Max Money
Onebigbeautfulbill

#2 MO FOR THE KING (5/2): Finished a good third in a similar spot last time out, and that day’s winner came back to win again on Friday. He’s shown he likes it here, and Flavien Prat chooses to ride back when he likely had several appealing options; #6 MAX MONEY (4-1): Has run two big races on Lasix compared to some real clunkers off of it, and he’s able to run with it here after a sharp score going a mile. He cuts back to a seven-panel trip here, and he graduated three back with a three-length win at this distance downstate; #3 ONEBIGBEAUTFULBILL (7/2): Rallied from last to first to get the money here last month and faces winners for the first time. This is a pretty strong race for the level, and Prat going elsewhere isn’t ideal, but it’s also possible he steps forward at second asking, and it’s not like having Irad in the irons is a bad thing.

R10

Sequential (MTO)
Hard Circle
Ciao Chuck

#8 HARD CIRCLE (9/2): Hit the front in the stretch last time out, only to be reeled in by Highlands Way. That one came back and ran very well a few days ago, which bodes well for this one’s chances. Prat hops aboard for Mike Maker, and I’m expecting him to sit an ideal stalking trip; #5 CIAO CHUCK (7/2): Put forth a strong effort two back over an ultra-firm turf course, when he was third beaten a neck against similar company. He was very wide behind a loose-on-the-lead winner last time out, so I don’t have much of a problem excusing that clunker; #1 THE PADDOCK PASTOR (8-1): Gets a very rare inside draw, as he’s had a lot of trouble saving ground of late. His last-out effort wasn’t a good one, but his efforts two and three back were solid, he gets Jose Ortiz, and he may be able to take a shorter way around the racetrack from the 1-hole.

R11

Shirl’s Soul Town
Bosun
Ortley Avenue

#6 SHIRL’S SOUL TOWN (9/2): Overcame some trouble to spring a 13-1 upset in his debut last time out. It took a while for him to get to the races, but this Charles Fipke homebred with a fantastic bottom-side pedigree may have a very bright future, and I think it’s likely he improves here; #9 BOSUN (7/2): Has done some of his best running at Saratoga and was a good second here last time out in his first try since late-January. He won twice at this route a season ago, and Jose Ortiz has been aboard for two of his three lifetime victories; #10 ORTLEY AVENUE (6-1): Has been off a year and returns for George Weaver. He ran well in some pretty big spots last year, including a second in the Grade 3 Quick Call at this route. If he’s ready and is able to flash his early speed, he may be the one they have to catch.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,167.43

The Whitney may be Saturday’s main event, and given the cast of characters assembled for the race, that’s justifiable. However, underselling the Fourstardave, and the Saratoga legend it honors, would be a mistake.

The most unbreakable record in sports isn’t Cy Young’s 511 pitching wins, Bill Russell’s 11 NBA titles, or Wayne Gretzky’s 2,857 points. It’s Fourstardave’s eight consecutive years with a win at Saratoga. Simply put, horses are not bred to run that long anymore, and the ones with the talent to win eight races at Saratoga are retired to stud long before they get the chance to do so.

Fourstardave wasn’t the fastest horse, or the most brilliant horse, or the most accomplished horse (in fact, his full brother, Fourstars Allstar, may have been better, as he claimed the prestigious Irish 2,000 Guineas). However, he’s an icon in upstate New York, and for good reason. It’s immensely satisfying that the race named after him has ascended to Grade 1 status over the years, and Saturday’s renewal has drawn a very solid group.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Unlike her last start, Midtown Mischief had no excuse in the second race. Like her last start, though, she ran third. I dropped $38.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: Given his pedigree, I’m very excited to see #7 REVENUE STREAM debut in today’s eighth race. I’ll have $20 to win on him, and I’ll also use him as a single to finish off a $2 Pick Three that starts in the sixth. That ticket goes as follows: 3 with 1,4,5,6,7,10 with 7.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32.

Want to leave a tip? Click here to send it via Venmo!

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Revenue Stream, Race 8
Longshot: Capitol Hill, Race 10

R1

Gaudreau
Star Salute
Hemingway

#7 GAUDREAU (7/2): Is one of several good-looking firsters in the Saturday opener, and this is the recipient of a tepid nod in a wide-open event. A $220,000 auction purchase, he’s got several strong gate works, and this son of Nyquist boasts both a superb female family and jockey Flavien Prat, who likely had several options; #5 STAR SALUTE (5-1): Hammered for $550,000 at Keeneland last year and is another bred to be a good one. He’s kin to top-notch sprinter Dr. Venkman, and in addition to his production dam, his second dam also threw a pair of other stakes winners, too; #8 HEMINGWAY (9/2): Debuts for Brad Cox and draws favorably, with most of this field to his inside. Some of his works look pretty good, and if there’s hesitation here, it’s only because I think he’ll want even longer than this 6 1/2-furlong distance.

R2

Code of Arms
Mystrix
Implied Open

#9 CODE OF ARMS (6-1): Sold for $625,000 last September, and I’d be pleasantly surprised if we got the morning line price on him. He’s by Not This Time, his dam won multiple stakes races, he draws well, and he boasts several stellar gate drills on his tab. I think he’s very well-meant in his unveiling; #8 MYSTRIX (7/2): Has been working very, very well for Danny Gargan, whose barn is due to get going at the meet. There’s not a ton of pedigree here, but he sold for $600,000 at auction as a yearling, so clearly these connections saw a lot of potential; #10 IMPLIED OPEN (6-1): Debuts for Will Walden off of some strong moves at Churchill Downs, and he’s got a right to be precocious. His dam was a debut winner, and she’s kin to six winners from six other foals to race out of the multiple stakes-winning second dam.

R3

Instant Replay
Vibe
Classicist

#7 INSTANT REPLAY (5-1): Has won six of 12 starts, and he’s shown he’s much, much better when he’s able to run with Lasix. He gets that here, he’s a multiple stakes winner going two turns, and Prat sees fit to ride; #4 VIBE (5/2): Was pulled up in the Grade 1 Met Mile, which he entered off of three wins in a row. On speed figures, he’s a major player, and I won’t be stunned if he wins, but this is his first time going two turns and he’s not going against a soft group. As the great Harvey Pack said, “never bet a horse, as the favorite, doing something it’s never done before;” #5 CLASSICIST (8-1): Is another getting back on Lasix when proven to run better with it. The “other Pletcher” has won three of four starts on that medication and attracts John Velazquez off of a last-out bullet drill that was fastest of 131 moves at the distance that day.

R4

Hidden Rose (MTO)
Carmensita
Scratch It

#5 CARMENSITA (5-1): Was third in her U.S. debut two back before trying much tougher in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks (as an Argentinian-bred, she’s since turned four years old, per Brisnet). This feels like a much softer spot, and she gets to run with Lasix third off the bench for a barn that’s been going very, very well; #6 SCRATCH IT (6-1): Ran fifth in a chaotic renewal of the Wild Applause, and given what happened that day, I have no issue drawing a line through that race. She’s placed in multiple stakes races, and her two-back win in Indiana was quite good; #1 CONSUMER SENTIMENT (2-1): Is a pretty heavy favorite on the morning line, but I just can’t back a horse that hasn’t run since May of 2025. Her maiden-breaking win at Aqueduct was sharp, but she may have to run back to that race to contend here, and given the long break, that’s no cinch (even for powerhouse connections).

R5

Pretty Boy Miah
Tagermeen
Rock Music

#6 PRETTY BOY MIAH (2-1): Cuts back to seven furlongs here, and that’s probably his best game. He was third behind a well-meant winner last time out, and his efforts three and four back going one turn downstate were probably the best races he’s run to date; #7 TAGERMEEN (3-1): Came back running off the bench last time out, when he broke the maiden in the slop at Churchill. He competed against some real heavyweights as a 2-year-old, including Ted Noffey and Englishman, and Steve Asmussen trainees getting better with age and experience is far from uncommon; #2 ROCK MUSIC (6-1): Has had some gate issues but gets Irad Ortiz, Jr., off of a race that wasn’t bad. He was fourth in a pretty fast event for the level, and he showed a new dimension that day to make up some ground.

R6

Red Poppy
Summer Starlet
Aerial Affair

#3 RED POPPY (5/2): Has been a major “buzz” horse after hammering for $900,000 earlier this year and working like a real runner. The tag team of Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr., will move plenty of money, and indications are that she could be a special filly; #9 SUMMER STARLET (6-1): Debuts for Steve Asmussen after some strong drills of her own, and she’s bred to be a good one. This daughter of City of Light is out of a mare whose two prior foals to race are winners, and her female family includes the dam of, among others, multiple Grade 2 winner Fed Biz; #6 AERIAL AFFAIR (5-1): Was green in her debut, but that’s something we’ve seen from some offspring of the great Flightline, whose first 2-year-olds are running this year. She’s certainly eligible to move forward at second asking, and she’s another with workouts that indicate she has talent.

R7

Castle Chaos (MTO)
Kravitz
Il Siciliano

#7 KRAVITZ (8-1): Is a tepid top pick in a turf marathon where I don’t have a strong opinion. He comes back to the optional claiming ranks after two tries against stakes foes. It’s his first try at a distance like this, but he’s bred to love it, and at a minimum he’s run OK against some nice grass horses; #10 IL SICILIANO (6-1): Is another getting class relief in here, and he’s proven going long on Lasix. He’s a deep closer that may need a lot to go right (especially on an inner turf course that tends to favor front-runners), but he’s got back races that would make him a major player; #5 IRON SIGHT (4-1): Earned the diploma last time out in his first try since August. He’s definitely got potential to move forward second off the bench, but it’s worth noting he’s had some issues at the start in all of his prior outings, and given these connections, we may not get much value here.

R8

Revenue Stream
And the Runner Is
Oscar

#7 REVENUE STREAM (4-1): Possesses one of the best turf pedigrees on the grounds for a trainer that’s unveiled some monsters with similar stock. His third dam was the dam of champion marathoner Kyprios, as well as two Group 1 winners and a multiple graded stakes winner. If he runs to his pedigree, he could be an outstanding prospect; #12 AND THE RUNNER IS (7/2): Ran well in his debut, when he was second in a similar race last month. That experience edge is a plus, but the far-outside post is a genuine concern. He’ll need to find a way to save ground, and if he doesn’t, this could be an uphill battle; #4 OSCAR (10-1): Is worth a look at a price for a barn that does well with first-time starters. He’s kin to 2-year-old stakes winner Meringue, who’s done her best work on the lawn, and given the presence of sire Oscar Performance, he figures to be a very good turfer, too.

R9

On Time Girl
Sippin Pretty
Explora

#6 ON TIME GIRL (7/2): Is ultra-consistent and has two graded stakes wins at this seven-furlong distance coming into the Grade 1 Test. She was second behind the likely favorite last time out, but she bled that day, while the winner couldn’t have possibly sat a better trip. I think this one has a big chance to turn the tables; #3 SIPPIN PRETTY (6-1): Ran very, very well to win a loaded renewal of the Grade 3 Victory Ride last month. She was a big price that day, and you’ll have to stomach a shorter one here, but she pressed a solid pace that day and won as considerably the best horse in that event; #7 EXPLORA (5/2): Was an easy winner of the Leslie’s Lady, though, as mentioned, she couldn’t have had it much easier. She’s clearly talented, and Bob Baffert means business whenever he ships, but I think she sees pressure up front here. She may need to be at her absolute best to beat these, and that’s not a lock.

R10

Lagynos
Deterministic
Capitol Hill

#7 LAGYNOS (5-1): Comes into the Grade 1 Fourstardave on a five-race win streak and has blossomed into one of the country’s top turf horses. I like that he doesn’t need the lead in order to run well, and he should certainly get a pace to close into. It doesn’t hurt that we may get a bettable price; #5 DETERMINISTIC (2-1): Is another on a five-race run of victories, and one of those was a win in this race a year ago. I expect him to sit a stalking trip just off the pace, and that may mean he’s the one they have to keep up with turning for home; #6 CAPITOL HILL (10-1): Is this race’s lone true closer, and given the abundance of early speed signed on, that means I have to use him. He didn’t get his ideal setup in the Grade 3 Kelso last time, but I think he gets it today. Maybe that’s not good enough to get him a win, but it could certainly get him a piece of it at a price.

R11

West End Kid
Remember Mamba
Title Role

#10 WEST END KID (7/2): Was a hard-luck loser in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby, and I think he’s got what it takes to turn the tables in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby. He’s bred to improve with added distance, which he gets here, and he should also have some pace to chase. Add in Flavien Prat, and I think there’s quite a bit to like; #3 REMEMBER MAMBA (3-1): Was beaten a neck in the Belmont Derby and certainly didn’t have it easy rating behind a pretty slow pace. Like my top pick, he figures to benefit from a more closer-friendly race shape, and ignore this trainer/jockey duo in big races for 3-year-olds at your own peril; #4 TITLE ROLE (9/2): Pulled off a mild upset when he got his nose down over my top pick last time. He could conceivably win again, but I’m not sure more distance is what he wants, and he may have to go a bit faster early to get his desired spot.

R12

Magnitude
Baeza
Sovereignty

#1 MAGNITUDE (9/5): Comes into the Grade 1 Whitney off of four straight wins, including an excellent score over several of these in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster. Asmussen has seen him blossom as a 4-year-old, the back-to-back bullet drills indicate he’s thriving lately, and I think he’ll be tough to beat; #8 BAEZA (7/2): Seems to go out of his way to find trouble, but there’s no doubting his talent. He was second behind my top pick in the Foster, and this race may have some more early speed signed on to set up for his vicious late kick. If he gets the clean trip that constantly seems to elude him, I could easily see him springing the upset; #6 SOVEREIGNTY (3-1): Won some of the biggest races in the country last year and wasn’t awful when second in his comeback in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap, but his misfire in the Foster was a bit alarming. Perhaps he just had a bad day, or perhaps he hasn’t moved forward from that 3-year-old campaign. There’s quite a bit at stake for this one here, and he may need to run a career-best race to find the winner’s circle.

R13

Helen’s Revenge
Battis Grove
Feminism

#3 HELEN’S REVENGE (6-1): Won three in a row earlier this year before finishing a fast-closing third here in June. The rider switch to Prat is a huge one, he’s 2-for-2 at this seven-furlong distance, and she should get plenty of pace to rate behind before making her run; #8 BATTIS GROVE (3-1): Broke her maiden with ease two back, but faded to third last time out after pressing a hot pace at Ellis Park. It’s possible she “bounced” a bit off of the late-May effort at Churchill, and if she gets back to that form, she could be the speed of the speed; #2 FEMINISM (2-1): Graduated first time out at Oaklawn and has since run into some fast horses. Her speed figures make her a player, and maybe she’s got more room to grow, but I’m not sure more distance is what she wants, and she shouldn’t be alone up front. At her likely price, I’ll take a mild stand against her.

R14

Complex Agenda
Capital Partner
Versailles Road

#7 COMPLEX AGENDA (9/2): Looks like the main speed in the Saturday nightcap, which, much like this 14-race card, is a marathon (one that, in this case, will go off just before 8 pm Eastern time). He was a competitive fourth going 12 furlongs last time out, and he helped set a legitimate pace that day. Between the slight cutback and the possibility he won’t need to go so fast early on, I think he’s live; #2 CAPITAL PARTNER (7/2): Stretches out to three turns and has a pedigree that says he should love such a journey. The Brown/Prat tag team merits plenty of respect, and he’s certainly eligible to move forward in his second start following a break of more than eight months; #4 VERSAILLES ROAD (5-1): Sat a weird trip last time in the same race my top pick exits. He was third that day, and he broke his maiden two back at this distance downstate. On figures, the last-out effort was a significant step forward, but if he can repeat it, he’ll be right there after 1 3/8 miles.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,205.43

It’s Hall of Fame Day, and I’m proud to have had a ballot for that institution for the last several years. As pleased as I am to see certain horses and horsepeople be enshrined, though, I’ll use this space to lobby for two horses that have been on the ballot the last few years and not gotten voted in.

Lady Eli won Grade 1 races at ages two, three, four, and five. She won one Breeders’ Cup race and overcame a near-fatal case of laminitis before almost winning another one. Based on credentials and her story, she should be in.

Game On Dude, meanwhile, may have no-showed in several Breeders’ Cup events, but he won eight Grade 1 races, including what may go down as the last Santa Anita Handicap that truly meant something (when he beat Mucho Macho Man and Will Take Charge). If you say you value longevity but don’t vote for a horse that did as much as Game On Dude, that hits me as hypocritical.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: My exacta plays ran 3-4 and 2-3 in the third and sixth races. After scratches, I dropped $16.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I wish I could play #1 TOUCH OF FIRE in the ninth, but that may be a hair late for my editors. Instead, I’ll focus on the second race, where, assuming we stay on the turf, I really like #2 MIDTOWN MISCHIEF (who got a terrible trip last time out). In addition to a $20 win bet on that one, she’s a single in the early Pick Four starting in that race. That 50-cent ticket goes as follows: 2 with 4,5,6,8,9,10 with 2,3,7 with 1,4.

TOTAL WAGERED: $38.

Want to leave a tip? Click here to send it via Venmo!

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Touch of Fire, Race 9
Longshot: Ed Charles, Race 6

R1

Dia Por Dia
Call Me Jal
Margarita Molly

#8 DIA POR DIA (7/2): Hasn’t run since January, but she comes back at what’s probably the right level. Her first-out win was a solid effort, her works downstate look solid enough, and Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride in the Friday opener; #7 CALL ME JAL (8-1): Has a habit of finding trouble, but when she got a clean trip two back, she got the money. The post towards the outside of the field should help her, and she takes a considerable class drop after running against much better last time out; #2 MARGARITA MOLLY (3-1): Is the morning line favorite, but I’m not sold. She does cut back, which helps, but I thought she had an ideal trip last time out and couldn’t get the job done. She could win, but given her likely short price after failing to capitalize on that perfect journey, I want others on top.

R2

Raised (MTO)
Midtown Mischief
Froghollowsummer

#2 MIDTOWN MISCHIEF (5/2): Got floated way, way wide turning for home last time out as a 2-1 favorite. Maybe she wouldn’t have beaten the well-meant winner that day, but she certainly would’ve finished much closer. Flavien Prat hops aboard for Mike Maker, and if she gets a less-eventful trip, she’ll be tough; #7 FROGHOLLOWSUMMER (10-1): Is 0-for-11, which is a lot of chances, but she had a weird trip last time out. She wants to be forward, but sat seventh of 12 before finishing third at a big price. If you only consider her races at Saratoga, her form looks much better, and the rider switch to Tyler Gaffalione is a big one; #1 MIDNIGHT BLUE (6-1): Wasn’t bad two back in her lone turf start to date, and her second-place finish in the slop back in May was also a decent effort. Luis Saez hops on, and combined with the rail draw, we may see her pretty close up early on.

R3

Coach Ryan
Emotionlyavailble
Maximum Heat

#8 COACH RYAN (3-1): Came back running off the bench for powerhouse connections last time out, as he was beaten just a half-length in his first try since October. Closers can have it tough on the inner, but any sort of progression second off the bench would make him a handful; #6 EMOTIONLYAVAILBLE (5-1): Is a nightmare for grammar freaks and had a nightmare trip last time out. Still, he was second that day despite a slow break and racing very greenly. He’s another fairly-inexperienced runner whose best days could be in front of him; #10 MAXIMUM HEAT (5-1): Ran fifth in the race my top pick exits, and that was this one’s debut. Linda Rice trainees often improve second time out, and Jose Ortiz rides back when he probably had a few options. The question is, will he get enough pace to set up for him here?

R4

Party in the Army
Anyway
Long Pour

#7 PARTY IN THE ARMY (4-1): Won two in a row downstate before finishing third in the swiftly-run Mike Lee here in early-June. Lasix goes back on, which could move him forward, and while there is other speed in here, he’s also shown he doesn’t necessarily need to be in front in order to run well; #3 ANYWAY (3-1): Has done very little wrong sprinting and comes in off of a solid, professional score against first-level allowance foes. I’m not sure what he beat that day, but toss the one-mile races downstate and you have a horse that’s 3-for-4 with a second, and perhaps he’s getting better in the back half of his 3-year-old season; #2 LONG POUR (5/2): Took advantage of a picture-perfect trip to win for the first time in a while here last time out. He’s done his best running at Saratoga, which helps him, but he’s also shown he may need the lead to run his best race. Given the speed horses elsewhere in the field, he may have it tougher out of the gate on Friday.

R5

Ez Roll
Papa Yo
Googol Joke

#4 EZ ROLL (1-1): Will likely be a very heavy favorite exiting a live event at this level and distance. That day’s winner and third-place finisher have both come back to win, and Ray Handal seems to have this one in top form, with three wins and six top-three finishes in as many starts this year; #1 PAPA YO (4-1): Looms the main danger shipping in for Linda Rice. He ran against some strong fields at Oaklawn over the winter and spring, and as an eight-time winner, he carries plenty of back form for a barn that’s dangerous with new acquisitions like this; #3 GOOGOL JOKE (8-1): Stretches back out to two turns, but his lone recent win came going a two-turn mile in February. His last two outings haven’t been great, but he’ll almost certainly be on or near the lead early, and perhaps he can hang on for a piece of it at a bit of a price.

R6

Silverus
Ed Charles
City of Rome

#12 SILVERUS (3-1): Draws an outside post in his debut for the dangerous George Weaver barn and boasts a number of very strong drills. Hall of Famer John Velazquez sees fit to ride this son of City of Light, and if he runs to his workouts, he could be a very nice horse; #7 ED CHARLES (8-1): Broke terribly in his debut last month, but rallied to finish fourth despite the trouble. The race didn’t come back incredibly strong on speed figures, but improvement is logical at second asking, especially with a cleaner start; #10 CITY OF ROME (5-1): Will be unveiled by Eddie Kenneally, who ships this son of Army Mule in for his first start. His last two works at Churchill look pretty good, and he’s another first-time starter with most of the field inside of him, which could make life a bit easier out of the gate.

R7

Remi’s Moon
New York Scrappy
Money Makes Money

#7 REMI’S MOON (6-1): Switched to the turf after being claimed by Joe Sharp and has gotten a pair of strange trips. He ran a fast-closing fourth going short downstate before pressing a solid pace in a race won by Highlands Way, who’s gotten pretty good. I think sprinting is what he wants, and that he’s live providing he avoids trouble; #1 NEW YORK SCRAPPY (7/2): Has won three in a row coming up the class ladder and ventures outside of New York-bred competition for this one. That’s not a small hurdle, but Flavien Prat rides back after guiding him to the last-out victory on dirt, and he’s certainly in form; #4 MONEY MAKES MONEY (5/2): Comes east for a barn that’s hit at a high percentage all over the place and doesn’t ship in for frequent-flyer miles. He’s run well in California, and if that form comes east, he’ll have a chance. The question is, what’s he really been running against? This is a good field for the level, and the 5/2 price hits me as an underlay.

R8

Shangrala Road
The Obliterator
Mirage

#9 SHANGRALA ROAD (3-1): Is as tepid a top pick as I’ll ever give out in a mess of a race out of the Wilson chute. Most of the contenders draw tough outside posts, and this one is no exception. He comes back to the dirt here, he’s shown he can get the one-mile trip, and I’m hoping he can somehow save ground; #7 THE OBLITERATOR (8-1): Doesn’t draw a great post, but didn’t totally lose the race at the draw, either. He’s run some OK races at this distance in the past, and he’s got some versatility in his running style, too; #8 MIRAGE (5/2): Goes first off the claim for an astute barn after running second here going longer a few weeks ago. He did show some tactical speed earlier this year, but he’ll have work to do to clear so many runners to his inside (seriously, folks, if you’re playing multi-race exotics, go as deep as you can).

R9

Touch of Fire
Glavine
Immortalised

#1 TOUCH OF FIRE (5/2): Looks like the lone early speed in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame, and in two-turn routes on the inner, that’s very, very dangerous. He ran well when fourth in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby last month, and this race, while a solid one, hits me as a considerable class drop. If he gets comfortable, I don’t think he gets caught; #5 GLAVINE (7/2): Rated in the Saranac, where he was one of a few that came running late. He was third that day, and he could improve if he’s more forwardly-placed given the likely race shape; #7 IMMORTALISED (8-1): Reeled off three wins in a row at Gulfstream earlier this year and has been competitive elsewhere in his last two outings. He doesn’t seem as fast as my top pick, but of the others in this field, he’s the one most likely to be sitting just behind him when the real running starts.

R10

Faithful Departed
Fitz Right
Consensus View

#6 FAITHFUL DEPARTED (9/5): Seems to be continuously improving ahead of the Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks. She won two in a row before finishing second behind a loose-on-the-lead winner in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks, and she almost certainly had way too much to do that day; #2 FITZ RIGHT (5/2): Won three in a row before finishing third in the Belmont Oaks and is one of three Chad Brown trainees in this field. Her running style hints that the added distance she gets here won’t be a problem, and Flavien Prat has gotten to know her very, very well; #8 CONSENSUS VIEW (8-1): Is a fascinating entrant that bucks a lot of Brown’s usual patterns. He enters her in this ambitious spot off of a maiden win without trying allowance company. The Monmouth work tab usually gives me pause, but the debut was impressive enough to keep Manny Franco hanging around, and it’s not often a Brown trainee offers this much value.

R11

Coquito
Mursal
Despo’s Dream

#5 COQUITO (3-1): Didn’t run well last time out against a better group, but she cuts back to seven furlongs first off the claim for Joe Sharp in the Friday nightcap. She’s knocked heads with several of these in the past, she’s got three top-two finishes in four local starts, and she could sit an ideal trip just off the speed; #8 MURSAL (2-1): Has won three of her last four starts and comes back pretty quickly for Linda Rice, which is often a sign of confidence. She’s certainly talented enough to win again here, but she hasn’t shown the same effectiveness at seven panels that she’s shown at six, and that’s a concern; #10 DESPO’S DREAM (5/2): Has won two of four starts at the Spa and is a two-time winner at this distance. She’s another that can win this on her best day, but this barn has been ice-cold to start the meet and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., while encouraging, may mean we don’t get much of a price.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,221.43

Dominoes continued to fall on Wednesday, as it was announced the Preakness will move back eight days and be contested on the fourth Sunday in May. This, of course, came two days after the announcement of a new six-race series that excluded the second leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown.

I don’t like the move, but it was inevitable. Horses simply aren’t bred to run twice in two weeks anymore. I would have preferred a solution involving radical changes to the breeding industry, but this would require short-term sacrifices on the part of businesses currently making money hand over fist, so those changes are probably never coming (even if the status quo is currently doing far more harm than good).

My two-part question: Is an additional week enough time to preserve the Preakness as a “next step” for most Kentucky Derby runners, and will that move be enough to hold the modern Triple Crown together given the six-race series that now serves as competition? I hope the answers are positive ones, but we won’t know for sure until next May.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Noble Glow ran well in the third, but finished second behind well-bred, well-meant firster Maria Louise. I dropped $20.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll have a pair of exacta plays focusing on races that, I think, could provide some value. In the third, I’ll play a $2 exacta box using #1 CHRIS’S SONG, #8 KINGS LANDYN, and #10 OURS TO START, and in the sixth, I’ll play a $2 exacta box using #1 DOTSY, #7 CAPODUST, and #10 CODY’S APPROVAL.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

Want to leave a tip? Click here to send it via Venmo!

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Starship Titan, Race 8
Longshot: Dotsy, Race 6

R1

Interlock Empire
Golden Symphony
Expensive Cut

#3 INTERLOCK EMPIRE (7/5): Comes in for hyper-aggressive connections and takes a monstrous drop in class. For other owners or trainers, I’d see that drop as a red flag, but with this operation, it’s not, and if he’s anywhere close to the horse we’ve seen multiple times this year, he’ll be very tough; #4 GOLDEN SYMPHONY (3-1): Stretches out to the Wilson chute and comes in for a tag after two tries against starter allowance foes. He didn’t run well last time, but he also didn’t sit his desired trip and should be more forward in the Thursday lid-lifter; #2 EXPENSIVE CUT (5-1): Hasn’t won in quite a long time, but is inside-drawn speed coming out of the chute for a trainer whose horses have been live this summer. If he’s allowed to get comfortable up front while dictating terms, he could easily hang on for a piece of this.

R2

Zack the Grey (MTO)
Monaco Crown
Al Mowashaah

#2 MONACO CROWN (5-1): Had some trouble in his debut at Colonial, which came against open company over yielding going. Blinkers go on and he gets to run against New York-breds, and while this two-turn trip is an unknown, that can be said about all of the others in this spot, too; #5 AL MOWASHAAH (5/2): Was bet in his debut downstate but faded after contesting the pace. There’s some turf on the bottom of his pedigree, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., for trainer Brad Cox may indicate that he has more to offer than he showed first time out; #7 PAREA (10-1): Didn’t do much running in his unveiling, but he stretches out and goes to the grass. His pedigree (by Speaker’s Corner, out of a Tapit mare) says he may want both of those moves, and Flavien Prat and Mike Maker do excellent work together.

R3

Ours to Start
Kings Landyn
Chris’s Song

#10 OURS TO START (10-1): Is a tepid top pick in a mess of a maiden claimer. There just isn’t much talent on the part of those that have run before. With that, I’ll take a shot with a first-time starter for astute trainer George Weaver, and this one has a few workouts that indicate he might have a bit of ability; #8 KINGS LANDYN (8-1): Appeals to me most of the ones that have run before. He showed a bit of an ability to rate first time out when he was third behind a next-out winner in June. Given the abundance of early speed and lack of stamina on offer elsewhere, I find him intriguing; #1 CHRIS’S SONG (9/2): Has run fairly well twice at similar levels downstate and presents an inside speed option. Ricardo Santana, Jr., has gotten to know him a bit over those two outings, and this is one of two contenders trained by Linda Rice.

R4

Irish Jackson
City Blocks
Jackie the Joker

#7 IRISH JACKSON (6-1): Looks like the lone closer in a race full of early speed, and she got a good confidence-builder last time out at Finger Lakes. She may not have beaten a lot that day, but she’s run well at this level on this circuit in the past, and the faster they go early on, the better her chances figure to be; #3 CITY BLOCKS (5-1): Loves Saratoga, with two wins and a second in three local starts, and comes back to what’s probably the right level. The two-back work was a very good one, and if she’s the horse we saw here last summer, she’ll have a big chance; #1 JACKIE THE JOKER (9/2): Was a very heavy favorite last time out and folded after helping to set the pace. She drops to the right level and certainly has a chance, but she may have her hands full up front early on with how many of her rivals will also want to be forward.

R5

Speightful Storm (MTO)
High Leverage
Mykonos

#2 HIGH LEVERAGE (3-1): Drops back down into the maiden claiming ranks and cuts back in distance after probably going too far last time. His two-back effort against similar downstate saw him do everything but win, and the return to these conditions with Irad Ortiz, Jr., aboard could be what he needs to graduate; #11 MYKONOS (9/2): Completes a 1-2 punch for this owner, whose colors also grace my top pick. He had an eventful trip last time, but still managed to rally for third despite being much further off the pace than usual. Prat riding back is a plus; #8 EYE ON THE BALL (5-1): Led in the stretch last time out before settling for second, being beaten just a neck. This one has some tactical speed, which should help, although he did sit a dream trip that day and couldn’t quite get the job done.

R6

Cody’s Approval
Capodust
Dotsy

#10 CODY’S APPROVAL (8-1): Took money at first asking on the turf and chased a fast pace before fading to run last. Between her experience edge and possibly not caring for turf, there are some reasons to believe she’ll improve here, and we may get a price given the last-out clunker; #7 CAPODUST (5/2): Debuts for powerhouse connections and has a right to be precocious, being by the speedy Nashville. Some of her workouts are sharp, including a recent four-furlong gate drill, and it wouldn’t be surprising if she was ready to run right away; #1 DOTSY (20-1): Is a big price for a small barn that does most of its work at Finger Lakes. However, she’s worked well, is kin to six multiple winners, and has a second dam that also threw graded stakes winner Voodoo, among others. The rail draw can be tricky, but she also could be a runner.

R7

Fort Nelson (MTO)
Risk Tolerance
Siyouincanada

#6 RISK TOLERANCE (1-1): Ran second in a very classy optional claiming event last time out, and while he’s been away since then, he’s also shown he runs well fresh. That three-month layoff isn’t the red flag it used to be, and if he runs back to his last-out effort, he’ll be the one to beat; #4 SIYOUINCANADA (7/2): Wired the field in his debut before finding stakes foes a bit too tough in the Saranac. He set a pretty fast pace that day, and he may not have to go so quickly early on to sit his desired trip (being able to run with Lasix again doesn’t hurt, either); #5 HIGHLANDS WAY (10-1): Came from way back to earn his second win in a row last time out. The inner turf is sometimes unkind to deep closers, but this one may be rapidly improving for Todd Pletcher. If he gets a pace to run at, perhaps he’ll be heard from late at a bit of a price.

R8

Alan Turing (MTO)
Starship Titan
A Bourbon for Toby

#2 STARSHIP TITAN (5/2): Came off a long break running and nearly got there when second behind a perfect-trip winner. That was this gelding’s first try in nine months, and any sort of improvement would make him a very formidable favorite; #9 A BOURBON FOR TOBY (7/2): Takes a class drop after running against much better in his last two outings. His two-back effort, where he ran second behind the talented Fort Washington in the Grade 3 Dinner Party, was outstanding, and that day’s rider, Irad Ortiz, Jr., is back aboard here; #5 SLAPINTHEFACE (15-1): May have needed his effort last time out, which was his first race since late-October. He won two in a row late last year before going to the sidelines, and one of them was a $200,000 stakes race. A logical step forward second off the bench gives him a chance at a minor award at a big price.

R9

Sacrosanct
Doc Sullivan
El Grande O

#6 SACROSANCT (4-1): Stretches back out to seven furlongs for the John Morrissey and is a tepid top pick in a fantastic race for the level. He’s wheeled back pretty quickly after running third in a stakes-quality optional claimer, and that race was against open company. He goes against state-breds here and has a big chance; #10 DOC SULLIVAN (7/2): Won this event a year ago (in one of my toughest beats of the season; I needed The Wine Steward badly…) and is a candidate to do it again. He hasn’t run since late-March, but he’s proven at this level, gets Irad Ortiz, Jr., and may be the one they have to hold off late; #3 EL GRANDE O (6-1): Won a swiftly-run allowance race on closing day at Aqueduct and steps back up into stakes company. Running without Lasix is a question mark, but there’s no doubt he’s a very fast horse on his best day.

R10

San Antonio Sara (MTO)
Intothewilderness
Chaumet

#8 INTOTHEWILDERNESS (7/2): Closed in a race with very little pace and fell less than a length short. She adds Lasix in the Thursday nightcap, should get some more pace to run at, and could be sitting on a career-best effort third off the bench; #1 CHAUMET (6-1): Drops in for a tag for the first time and didn’t run terribly against straight maidens on Independence Day. These shallower waters could be what she needs, and she may have further potential to move forward; #10 SKY LOW LOW (6-1): Fell a neck short at a price last time out and has run her two best races over this turf course. She’s 0-for-12 and draws a tricky outside post, so there are things for her to overcome, but she can’t be discounted.