BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $200

First and foremost, it’s fantastic to be back. I’m grateful to the management of The Saratogian and Raketech for allowing me to do this again, and I’m excited to get back into the swing of things during an exciting, history-making week in upstate New York.

If you’re new to this, a quick crash course: In addition to selections and analysis for every race, I’ve got a section where I can expound on money management and, hopefully, parlay my picks and thoughts into smart bets that make money. If the top-three picks are Handicapping 101, this is Handicapping 201. There’s no way to give picks and analysis that pleases everyone (thanks, horse racing Twitter!), but this way reaches wide groups of people with varying levels of experience, and it’s one that we’ve seen works over time.

For the summer meet, I’ll have a $1,000 bankroll to use over the 40-day schedule. I’m treating this as a separate endeavor and giving myself $200 over the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. Let’s see what we can do.

THURSDAY’S PLAYS: We’ll head to the eighth race, where I think #1 ROMANTIC CHARMER has a big chance to improve in his first turf start against a field that includes multiple horses coming off of long layoffs. I’ll key that one in $5 exactas above and below #6 FILM ACADEMY, #7 ALL GOOD HERE, and #9 MISSION HILL, and I’ll also have a $10 win bet on him. As a reminder, bets in turf races assume those events stay on they grass, and surface changes cancel all tickets.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Three Echoes, Race 2
Longshot: Romantic Charmer, Race 8

R1

Drunk On Sake
Bookworm
Caesar’s Ghost

#5 DRUNK ON SAKE (8-1): Didn’t do much running in his career debut, but he takes a significant drop at second asking, adds both Lasix and blinkers, and could improve going to the turf. His pedigree says he’ll like the lawn, and that may be enough against a suspect group; #6 BOOKWORM (7/5): Will be a significant favorite, but I have my doubts. This is a strong barn, but the outfit is 0-for-12 with first-out maiden claimers going back to mid-July of 2022, and seeing a $150,000 purchase debut for a $40,000 tag is a red flag; #12 CAESAR’S GHOST (9/2): Needs some luck to draw in off the AE list, but he ran reasonably well in three turf races against maiden special weight foes. The layoff is a concern, but anything close to his last-out performance at Kentucky Downs would give him a big shot.

R2

Three Echoes
Touchy
Classic of Course

#5 THREE ECHOES (5/2): Got a lot of experience in his debut, when he overcame considerable trouble to win at first asking. That’s not something 2-year-olds often do, and I think he’s very well-meant coming into the Tremont; #7 TOUCHY (2-1): Debuts for Wesley Ward, who’s one of the best first-out trainers in the game. His works are strong, and there’s every reason to think he’s well-meant, but given his pedigree, I wonder if he wants a bit longer than this 5 1/2-furlong trip; #8 CLASSIC OF COURSE (7/2): Led every step of the way in his debut at Gulfstream and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr. It’s unlikely another perfect trip will materialize here, but he certainly figures to be prominent from the start.

R3

Caldo Candy
Silver Satin
Land d’Oro

#2 CALDO CANDY (3-1): Has yet to run a truly bad race to this point and was a solid second at this level last time out downstate. That day’s winner came right back to win again, and the recent bullet drill over this surface is encouraging; #5 SILVER SATIN (5/2): Faces winners for the first time after graduating in a swiftly-run maiden race in April. He’s yet to run out of the exacta in three starts, and the step up in class may not be too much of a problem; #7 LAND D’ORO (4-1): Cuts back to seven furlongs after finishing second going a mile back in April. His lone win to date came at this distance, and the jockey switch to soon-to-be Hall of Fame rider Joel Rosario is a big one.

R4

Almostgone Rocket
Manama Gold
Becky’s Joker

#5 ALMOSTGONE ROCKET (6/5): Has been extremely impressive in two starts to date, including a first-level allowance score on Kentucky Oaks Day. Unlike many others in the Jersey Girl, she’s shown she doesn’t need the lead to run well, and she looms very, very large; #4 MANAMA GOLD (6-1): Went 3-for-3 in Dubai earlier this year, including a win in the Group 3 UAE Oaks. She hasn’t run since february, but her workouts are solid enough and she’s another that could be sitting just off of a very hot pace; #3 BECKY’S JOKER (8-1): Captured the Grade 3 Schuylerville last time out in her career unveiling, but went to the sidelines after a dud a few weeks later. She’s been working well for patient connections and could be another beneficiary of the likely race shape.

R5

In the End
Strictly Taboo
Heart of the Night

#6 IN THE END (9/2): Gets a tepid top pick in a turf sprint where I’m truly not in love with any runner. She, however, goes second off the bench and faces state-bred company for the first time, so there’s reason to believe she’ll move forward; #1 STRICTLY TABOO (3-1): Ran well at this level several times last year and gets reunited with Joel Rosario in her first try since October. Christophe Clement can get horses ready to run off the bench, and she’ll be a major player if she can overcome the inside draw; #9 HEART OF THE NIGHT (5-1): Comes east after starting her career in California and is another facing NY-breds for the first time. Her last two races weren’t anything to write home about, but her 2022 and early-2023 form is strong enough to merit consideration.

R6

Pletcher entry
She’s Wicked Smart
Silvology

PLETCHER ENTRY (6/5): Both #1 CHANTEUSE and #1A AUDACIOUS could win. It would appear they’ve worked in company the last few weeks, and they both draw top-class riders for their respective unveilings; #5 SHE’S WICKED SMART (4-1): Ran well when third in her debut last summer behind Just F Y I, who ultimately wound up becoming the top 2-year-old filly in the country. She’s been off more than nine months, but she’s worked steadily and has every right to be a good one; #2 SILVOLOGY (12-1): Has a very classy pedigree and fired a bullet drill downstate last week for a trainer that doesn’t often ask much of unraced horses. Most of the pedigree says she’d be a top-class turf horse, but she’s flashed enough potential to indicate she could factor in this dirt event at a price.

R7

Ways and Means
Miz Sense
Broderie

#7 WAYS AND MEANS (2/5): Exits the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, where she was fourth behind Thorpedo Anna and may have been going a bit longer than she wants to run. The cutback to a mile should suit her perfectly, she gets Lasix for the first time, and the class relief is a big, big plus; #4 MIZ SENSE (8-1): Won first time out at this route, which is a tricky thing to do, and hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since she lost Manny Franco at the start of the Grade 1 Spinaway. She comes back for Pletcher here, while adding Lasix and Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #6 BRODERIE (10-1): Won a pair of restricted races in Florida before shipping to Aqueduct and finishing second at this distance. That day’s winner, Midtown Lights, is a solid runner, and this one may sit an ideal stalking trip.

R8

Iron Man Ira (MTO)
Romantic Charmer
Film Academy

#1 ROMANTIC CHARMER (8-1): Tries turf for the first time, and his pedigree says he’ll love it. He’s by Mendelssohn, out of a Langfuhr mare, and he may not have to move forward much off of his dirt races to win this (his last-out Beyer Speed Figure of 72 is the highest number in the main body of the field); #6 FILM ACADEMY (7/2): Has been off four months but stretches out in his first start since January for very strong connections. He was third in his career debut last summer over this turf course, and he may be on or near the lead in a race without much early zip; #9 MISSION HILL (4-1): Is one of several comebackers, having not run since a so-so fourth at this route in late-August. He’s been gelded since that effort, and a logical move forward would put him right there if he’s ready to run.

R9

Long Neck Paula
French Horn
Aoraki

#9 LONG NECK PAULA (2-1): Cruised to an easy win in her debut over 10 rivals at Keeneland and draws a cushy outside post in the Astoria. Her recent local drill was solid enough, and when Wesley Ward gets young horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #3 FRENCH HORN (7/2): Wired the field in her debut over Woodbine’s synthetic track and sports a recent bullet drill that suggests dirt won’t be a problem here. Flavien Prat hops aboard this daughter of the mare Emma’s Encore, who gave H. Allen Jerkens his last Grade 1 win in the 2012 Prioress here at Saratoga; #2 AORAKI (5-1): Debuted with a win in a restricted race at Churchill Downs, but despite my concerns about what she beat, I have to admit she won the right way. The Steve Asmussen trainee showed some grit and passed others late, which isn’t the traditional winning trip for a first-time starter.

R10

Dai Vernon (MTO)
Siskany
The Grey Wizard

#12 SISKANY (1-1): Ships in for the Godolphin/Charles Appleby partnership, which has won some of America’s biggest turf races over the last few years. Also in tow is regular rider William Buick, who’s piloted this gelding to many of his 10 career wins (including last year’s renewal of this race, the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup); #11 THE GREY WIZARD (8-1): Goes third off the bench for Graham Motion and stepped forward when third in the Grade 3 Louisville last time out. He was second in this race a year ago and reunites with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez; #3 REALLY GOOD (15-1): Is one of several Mike Maker trainees in this field, and he comes in off of a win downstate. He won the Kent Stakes going long last year, and his plodding style may mean this two-mile distance is exactly what he wants.