BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $926
A heads-up for this coming week, folks: Starting Wednesday night, I’m going to be in Denver with my fiancée on a quick vacation. I’ll still have all my stuff in, with the caveat that the print version of my bankroll section may not have my up-to-date total in there.
As a reminder, you can check out all of my content on AndrewChampagne.com. I’ll have bankroll totals updated there each night, but that might be after The Pink Sheet goes to the printers, and I don’t want to leave my editor in a lurch!
SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Tidal Forces ran absolutely gigantic in the ninth and finished second at 30-1. Unfortunately, I didn’t have the winner in my exacta plays. Despite some sharp handicapping on my part, I dropped $28.
SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to take a small swing against #3 PROVE WORTHY in the eighth. Perhaps he makes me look silly, but I’m wondering why he’s in this restricted claiming race given some of his past form. I’ll bet against him in $5 doubles that use #2 SOUTH STREET, #5 MAGIA NERA, #7 UNSTABLE PRINCE, and #9 PHILHARMONIC in the eighth and single #6 STAR OF MYSTERY in the ninth.
TOTAL WAGERED: $20.
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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Itza Mirrakle, Race 5
Longshot: Philharmonic, Race 8
R1
Kimchi Cat
La Cara
Bossy Pants
#1 KIMCHI CAT (3-1): Was one-paced in her debut, where she chased a runner that went on to compete in the Schuylerville on opening day. She’s got an experience edge over some of this field, and I’m expecting a step forward at second asking; #8 LA CARA (2-1): Dueled through fast fractions last time out at Churchill and settled for second. Based on that effort, she can win, though I’ve got questions about the lack of a published work since that race and the fact that this barn also saddles #5 SHE’S A GAMER (12-1); #6 BOSSY PANTS (5-1): Ran like a horse that needed her unveiling last time out. This barn’s first-time starters often need a race to get going, and the slow break certainly didn’t help matters.
R2
Rice entry
Screaming Uncle
Tivy
RICE ENTRY (7/5): Is a “hold my nose” pick in a starter allowance where I’m truly not in love with any betting interest. However, #1 RIDER’S SPECIAL was an impressive winner last time out, and #1A BLOWN COVER flashed talent late last year and could rediscover it with the recent barn switch; #3 SCREAMING UNCLE (10-1): Won two in a row against weaker groups before salvaging third after a terrible start last time out. He had to rally from last, and that’s not this one’s desired trip; #4 TIVY (8/5): Figures to take a bunch of betting money, but I’m against him here. He’s a dream to own, with 14 in-the-money finishes in 17 career starts, but with only one win on his sheet (and none since early-2023), I simply cannot back him on top.
R3
Boss Tweed (MTO)
Russi
Saratoga Banker
#2 RUSSI (2-1): Exits a very classy race for the level that has produced several next-out winners. He was a good second that day, and he returns to the route where he broke his maiden late last summer; #8 SARATOGA BANKER (10-1): Returns to the turf, which he’s only tried once before. Given the turf-heavy pedigree, I find that a bit odd, but these are Finger Lakes-based connections and there’s no grass course there. Given that one prior turf effort and the ability of these connections to pop at a price, I think there’s value here; #6 TWISTED FILIGREE (9/2): Has been off more than a year, but ran two strong races before going to the sidelines and is a contender if he’s ready to run. He’s been gelded since his last race, and this is a barn that knows how to win with horses on the comeback trail.
R4
Signal From Noise
Jacobson entry
Mighty Madison
#2 SIGNAL FROM NOISE (6/5): Came back running in her first start since last summer, when she was a close-up second downstate. That day’s third-place finisher came back to win on opening day, and I’m expecting a sharper performance here second off the bench for Chad Brown; JACOBSON ENTRY: I prefer #1 MOSIENKO (4-1), a classy sort with 11 wins in 45 career starts. She’s won three times here at the Spa, boasts three wins at this distance, and merits plenty of respect; #6 MIGHTY MADISON (8/5): Ran a career-best race last time out, when she stalked, pounced, and held sway through the stretch at Churchill Downs. A similar type of effort gives her a shot, but it’s fair to wonder if her Kentucky form will travel, and this sure seems like a much tougher group than the one she beat last time.
R5
Itza Mirrakle
Trulli Warrior
Military Road
#3 ITZA MIRRAKLE (4-1): Debuted with a strong second here last month going seven furlongs, which isn’t a small ask for a first-time starter. His pedigree says he’ll relish stretching out to two turns, and trainer Tom Morley’s horses often improve with experience. Given that he also figures to get plenty of pace to chase, I think he’s live at a solid price; #6 TRULLI WARRIOR (6-1): Is one of two in here for Todd Pletcher, and this is the one I prefer. The recent workouts suggest he learned quite a bit from his unveiling, and this is another one whose pedigree screams “wants to go long”; #1 MILITARY ROAD (9/5): Is one of two who figure to take most of the betting money, but I’m not sold. I thought he sat an ideal trip last time out. He was run down that day, and there’s some other early speed in here, too. At his likely price, I simply can’t endorse him on top.
R6
DeVaux entry
Strife
Appellate
DEVAUX ENTRY (2-1): Both #1 PISCIOTTA and #1A DEEP SATIN could win. The former endured a nightmare trip in her debut this spring at Keeneland, while the latter has finished second twice in as many starts to date; #8 STRIFE (4-1): Is another with two seconds in two starts, with the most recent one coming at Aqueduct. Joel Rosario rides back for Christophe Clement, and she should be up close early on; #3 APPELLATE (12-1): Is an example of one of my favorite handicapping angles, the “toss two” play. It’s safe to assume something went wrong in the Grade 2 Jessamine because we didn’t see her again until June, where she was a non-factor in a race she needed off the bench. A return to last summer’s form beneath Frankie Dettori gives her a chance at a big price.
R7
Truly Quality
Crabs N Beer
Mondego
#2 TRULY QUALITY (5/2): Has shown an affinity for marathon distances, having most recently thumped an overmatched bunch at this distance downstate. The 96 Beyer Speed Figure he earned in that race is hands down the top last-out figure in this field, and he looks tough; #10 CRABS N BEER (8-1): Ran very well when second in the Grade 3 Dinner Party over a boggy turf course at Pimlico. He’s turned into quite the consistent turfer, and he’ll be a contender if he handles the additional distance here; #8 MONDEGO (4-1): Came back running off of a six-month layoff to finish a close-up third after doing most of the dirty work up front. He spent most of last year running against better horses, and most notably ran third in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby (where he was beaten just a length by Far Bridge).
R8
Philharmonic
Prove Worthy
Unstable Prince
#9 PHILHARMONIC (15-1): Saw something click last time out, when he crushed a field of lower-level claimers at Churchill Downs. The Wilson chute is a strange beast, but I generally prefer two-turn horses cutting back to one-turn horses stretching out, and this one’s record looks far better if you toss the career debut on turf and three clunkers at Oaklawn; #3 PROVE WORTHY (6/5): Wouldn’t be a gigantic shock given the massive class drop. Just two starts ago, he ran third in a stakes-quality optional claimer at Churchill Downs. Based on form, he’s supposed to win, but if he’s this good, why is he running for a $25,000 tag?; #7 UNSTABLE PRINCE (15-1): Is one of two in here for David Jacobson, and while he hasn’t won in a while, a few recent efforts are solid enough. The faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be.
R9
Star of Mystery
Fandom
American Rascal
#6 STAR OF MYSTERY (4/5): Scratched from Friday’s Coronation Cup to run here, and she looks like a massive favorite in the Grade 3 Quick Call. This filly was last seen running third behind older males in the Grade 1 Jaipur, and while this isn’t a bad group of 3-year-olds, it’s a substantial class drop; #3 FANDOM (9/2): Has run just three times, but he’s 2-for-2 in the U.S., with his lone defeat coming last year at Royal Ascot. He showed a new dimension last time out, when he rated and rallied to win the Palisades at Keeneland; #7 AMERICAN RASCAL (20-1): Is bred in the purple, being by Curlin and out of the freakish mare Lady Aurelia. This will be his turf debut, but he’s bred up and down to handle it, has several strong local drills, and will be a horse I’ll have in exotics, since he’ll likely be a pretty big price.
R10
Flying P entry
Billy’s Got Issues
St. Joe Louis
#1 LA MAQUINA (8-1): Flashed speed in his return off of a two-year layoff last time out before fading to finish sixth. He almost certainly needed the race that day, and I’m expecting significant improvement with a front-running trip that tends to work out well on the inner turf; #10 BILLY’S GOT ISSUES (6-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but the blinkers go on second off the bench for trainer Ray Handal. The post position is a problem, but he did everything but win last time out at Monmouth and he ran reasonably well here a season ago; #14 ST. JOE LOUIS (7/2): Simply does not win, with just one triumph in 19 career starts. He does, however, hit the board with regularity, and he’ll be a threat to do so once again if he draws in off of the AE list.
Andrew Champagne 