BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,128.50

In lieu of something timely and witty (since I’ll be in Colorado through Monday), my bankroll section will focus much more on ticket construction advice.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: It was a “good news, bad news” situation. The good news is Hue, my best bet of the day, won at 9/5. The bad news is, due to the surface switch, my action in this section was cancelled. There’s no change to my bankroll, and we press on!

THURSDAY’S PLAY: My strongest opinion today is that #5 THE BIG TORPEDO is a vulnerable favorite in the fourth. Yes, he won impressively last time out, but I think there’s a chance he’s not the same horse going two turns. At her likely price, I need to try to beat him.

I’ll use #4 FIDELIGHTCAYUT, a colt with a win going two turns who gets back to his desired route, and #6 CABLE READY, whose last race is a total throwout, on top of $3 exactas that use those two, #1 SIX FORTYFIVE, and The Big Torpedo underneath. I’ll also box my top two in additional $2 combinations.

TOTAL WAGERED: $22.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Iridescent, Race 5
Longshot: Destiny Star, Race 9

R1

Smokin’ Hot Kitty
Cinderella’s Cause
Racing Colors

#3 SMOKIN’ HOT KITTY (9/5): Has won three of her last four outings, with the lone misfire coming in a turf race downstate. The stretchout to two turns is notable, but she does have a two-turn win on grass last summer, so it’s not a total unknown; #6 CINDERELLA’S CAUSE (8/5): Earned a career-best 82 Beyer Speed Figure last time out in her first start off the claim for Linda Rice. She’s won seven of 33 career starts, generally runs the same race every time out, and could sit an ideal stalking trip; #1 RACING COLORS (9/2): Stretches out to two turns and would benefit from a pace meltdown. There is some speed signed on, and while she has to improve to win this, she should be going the right way late in the Thursday lid-lifter.

R2

Rice entry
Six Pack Senorita
Dolce Sera

RICE ENTRY (8/5): Both #1 SHE’S ALWAYS ROSIE and #1A FIRST CLASS CAT could win this. Both runners are coming off of wins for a barn that tends to keep horses on the right track. The former is a threat to wire the field, while the latter should be running well late; #8 SIX PACK SENORITA (6-1): Was a one-paced fourth downstate at this level, though did show some late interest in battling for second behind a much-the-best winner. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back, which bodes well; #5 DOLCE SERA (15-1): Is a deep closer exiting a win at Aqueduct and would be the beneficiary of a pace meltdown. Many in here want to be on or near the lead, and that means this one could clunk up for a piece of it at a big price.

R3

Tipsy Runner
Supers Lucky Lady
Bella Voce

#9 TIPSY RUNNER (5/2): Takes a big drop for an aggressive barn and looms large. Two starts ago, she ran against stakes company at Churchill Downs. Here, she’s going up against restricted $40,000 claimers, and she seems like the class of the field; #2 SUPERS LUCKY LADY (3-1): May have needed her last start, which came after a six-month layoff. The other turf sprint on her sheet was a first-out win downstate, and the lone poor effort to date came in a dirt race right before the long break; #1 BELLA VOCE (10-1): Is a value play for me based off of pedigree that hints she’ll like the turf. Her last-out score at Finger Lakes was sharp, and these connections have already popped at a price at this stand.

R4

Fidelightcayut
Cable Ready
The Big Torpedo

#4 FIDELIGHTCAYUT (7/2): Stretches back out to two turns, and that seems like his preferred trip. He was a hard-luck third two back in the Jersey Derby at Monmouth against open company. He runs against state-breds here, and a repeat of that two-back effort would give him a big chance; #6 CABLE READY (8-1): Lost all chance at the break last time out, so draw a line straight through that effort. Two back, he was fourth in the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge against much better horses, so we know his best race puts him right there; #5 THE BIG TORPEDO (4/5): Was impressive going six furlongs last time out, and a repeat performance would make him a formidable favorite. The question is, can he replicate that effort going two turns? Given the quality of this field, he may need to do that, and his likely price is tough to swallow on what otherwise hits me as a chalk-heavy program.

R5

Iridescent
Cool Operator
Stingy

#7 IRIDESCENT (5/2): Makes his first start for Brad Cox, who doesn’t claim many horses but has a staggering success rate with new acquisitions. He’s run against stakes-quality horses in the past, and his early-2024 form seems miles ahead of anything his opponents have done; #4 COOL OPERATOR (9/2): Cuts back to one turn after nine furlongs proved to be beyond his scope. His two and three-back wins were sharp, and getting back to that form for top-notch connections isn’t out of the question; #1 STINGY (10-1): Stepped up in class last time out at Churchill and ran a solid second. Another step up is probably necessary in order to contend here, but this could be a 3-year-old finding his best form with experience.

R6

Brindi
Will Reign
Moon Gate

#10 BRINDI (7/2): Debuts for Christophe Clement and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., which seems like a clue. She’s a full sister to a debut winner, and this daughter of 2-year-old Group 1 winner No Nay Never has every right to be precocious; #5 WILL REIGN (6-1): Debuts for Mark Casse and has been working well ahead of her unveiling. She’s by War of Will and out of a mare who won a stakes race as a 2-year-old, so she’s another that could be ready to fire right away; #9 MOON GATE (4-1): Debuted with a solid third downstate and could take a step forward at second asking. She hit the front in the stretch before fading, so perhaps the slight cutback in distance will help her.

R7

Own the Field
Principe d’Oro
Two for Charging

#6 OWN THE FIELD (4-1): Gets a tepid top pick in a race that hit me as a wide-open event. He was a good second here going a bit shorter last month and was unlucky not to win at this distance at Oaklawn in April. Luis Saez rides back for Mike Maker, and both of those stalwarts are due to get going; #2 PRINCIPE D’ORO (8-1): Was close to a fast pace at Aqueduct a few weeks ago, but managed to hang on for third in his second start off the claim. Inside speed is often sharp out of the Wilson chute, and this one could get ideal positioning out of the gate; #10 TWO FOR CHARGING (8-1): Found the winner’s circle for the first time in nearly two years against restricted claimers and steps back up in class here. The added distance shouldn’t be an issue, at least, and Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back when he likely had several options.

R8

Rainingatthebeach (MTO)
Highway Harmony
Surprenant Cocca

#7 HIGHWAY HARMONY (4-1): Drops in for a tag after a few competitive tries against state-bred allowance foes and retains the riding services of Irad Ortiz, Jr. Her early speed could be an asset on the inner turf course, and she may be the one they have to catch turning for home; #9 SURPRENANT COCCA (9/2): Is another dropping into a claiming race after tries against higher-level foes. This one goes third off the bench for Graham Motion and could move forward if she overcomes her tendency to find trouble; #8 MISS PRETENDER (7/2): Earned the diploma against maiden special weight rivals at Parx last month and tries winners here. Trainer Chad Brown merits respect, but neither of her races came back fast on speed figures, and Brown’s Monmouth shippers have sometimes been overbet over the years.

R9

Regulatory Risk (MTO)
Expatriate
Destiny Star

#4 EXPATRIATE (8-1): Was pulled up in the Hilltop at Pimlico last time out, but judging by the consistent work tab downstate, she’s no worse for wear. Her debut win at Gulfstream was sharp, and she’s got a big chance if she runs back to that form; #3 DESTINY STAR (12-1): Gets back on Lasix after three tries against stakes foes in which she could not receive treatment. She’s 2-for-2 with Lasix applied, and Luis Saez getting on a speed horse is always intriguing; #9 MIXOLOGIST (4-1): Stormed home to win her debut after racing far behind in the early stages. It was visually impressive, to be sure, and it helps that the runner-up came back to win over the weekend.

R10

Braca
Saka Shocka
Hey Toby

#10 BRACA (8-1): Ran pretty well in his first start since early-January, when he was a best-of-the-rest second at Aqueduct. He gets a cushy outside draw in the Thursday finale, and the rider switch to Tyler Gaffalione is a big one (especially since he doesn’t ride for this small outfit often); #6 SAKE SHOCKA (4-1): Hasn’t done much running in three starts to date and drops in for a tag. The two recent local workouts, however, look pretty sharp, and there’s a chance he comes to life over this surface against a weaker group; #3 HEY TOBY (3-1): Was pulled up last time out, but seems to have come back fine judging by a series of strong local workouts. He seems like the main early speed and could lead this group a long way.