BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $1,031.75
If you’re a pedigree nerd (a term I use with endearment, because I’m one, too!), you won’t want to miss Saturday’s seventh race. There are some 2-year-olds bred to be any kind in there, including the very first horse in the program. That’s Invictus, who’s by top sire Into Mischief and out of the freakishly-fast mare Serengeti Empress.
He won’t have it easy at first asking, though. Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown, and Steve Asmussen all saddle precocious-looking colts, and another top trainer, Bill Mott, runs two (including one with an experience edge). It’s a fascinating race to handicap, and if you’re a Pick Six player, it’s definitely not an easy start to that sequence!
FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Better Bet salvaged a rough day in the pick box by at least getting me a few bucks in the bankroll. Doubles and win bets involving Run Curtis Run fizzled, but $25 in bets returned $33.
SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll repeat the strategy I used Friday in Saturday’s fourth and fifth races. I like #7 BE THE BOSS and #1 HAVE YOU HEARD quite a bit in each event. I’ll have $10 win bets on both runners, and I’ll link them in a $5 double. Given their respective prices, one win would mean a very good day, while back-to-back wins would make for a really nice score.
TOTAL WAGERED: $25.
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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Scarlet Poppy, Race 8
Longshot: Time Song, Race 9
R1
West Beach
Atomic Age
Seattle Road
#7 WEST BEACH (5/2): Is a very logical favorite in the Saturday lid-lifter and has an experience edge over most of his opponents in this spot. It’s good experience, too, as he was a solid second going shorter downstate and is bred to love this two-turn route of ground; #3 ATOMIC AGE (7/2): Is by Justify and hails from a precocious female family. His dam was stakes-placed at two, his second dam was a Grade 3 winner as a 2-year-old, and his third dam also threw top sire Constitution. Simply put, he’s got every reason to be a runner; #6 SEATTLE ROAD (15-1): Merits a long look at a price given his pedigree, one that says this two-turn route will not be a problem. This son of Quality Road is out of a Tapit mare that placed in a Grade 3 event, and Tom Amoss knows how to win with first-time starters.
R2
Tinebar
Iron Man Ira
Sorority Prank
#5 TINEBAR (3-1): Showed a bit of early speed in his debut, which came going a mile downstate. That’s not an easy ask of a first-time starter, even for offspring of Arrogate that should get a distance of ground. His recent workouts include a pair of bullet drills, and I’m expecting a significant step forward; #3 IRON MAN IRA (9/5): Makes sense as a favorite given his two and three-back efforts, which were both solid. The last-out clunker as an odds-on favorite, however, gives me some cause for concern, even though Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back; #7 SORORITY PRANK (6-1): Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment and figures to be prominent early. Dylan Davis is riding as well as anyone in upstate New York right now, and the draw near the outside of this field should give horse and rider an opportunity at an ideal trip.
R3
Kantarmaci entry
Master of Arms
Natural Harbor
KANTARMACI ENTRY (3-1): I prefer #1A AMUNDSON, although #1 MARKET ALERT doesn’t seem terribly-meant. Amundson, though, has won three in a row and loves this Saratoga surface. His stalking style should suit him perfectly and give him first run going into the far turn; #7 MASTER OF ARMS (9/2): Ships in from Churchill and seems to run pretty much the same race every time out. He’s broken a bit slow in his last few starts, which have come against starter allowance foes. A clean start would give him a big chance; #4 NATURAL HARBOR (6-1): Comes north from Parx and is another taking a bit of a drop in class. He has tactical speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which is a trait I value in a race with lots of zip in the field.
R4
Be the Boss
Speak Easy
Edified
#7 BE THE BOSS (5-1): Comes in off a three-month freshening for Mike Maker, whose barn is heating up. The recent bullet drill jumps off the page, and as a stalker/closer in a race with plenty of early speed, he should benefit from the likely race shape as much as any runner in here; #5 SPEAK EASY (1-1): Will almost certainly be a heavy favorite, but I have some doubts. He was scratched prior to the Fountain of Youth earlier this year and hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since. Maybe he’s so talented it doesn’t matter, but this sure seems far shorter than he wants, and he’s not going up against a bad group, either; #8 EDIFIED (15-1): Goes second off the bench for Steve Asmussen and almost certainly needed his 2024 debut last month. That was his first try since October, and he rushed into contention after a less-than-ideal start. Logical improvement here would give him a shot to hit the board at a price.
R5
Have You Heard
Who’s the King
Pando
#1 HAVE YOU HEARD (6-1): May have just been a dirt router all along. He’s won two of three starts since being claimed by Mike Maker back in March, including a last-out score at Colonial in an off-the-turf event. I think he’s doing what he wants now, and that he may still have further room to grow; #4 WHO’S THE KING (5/2): Exits a second-place finish at Churchill where he hit the front in the stretch and was reeled in. His early speed is a plus, and this barn merits respect, but the nine-furlong distance seems like it may be a hair too far; #7 PANDO (12-1): Is a plodding-type who should appreciate the stretchout in distance here. Jose Ortiz takes the call, and he should have this gelding fairly close to a reasonable pace early on.
R6
Skelly
Baby Yoda
Nakatomi
#6 SKELLY (6/5): Was run down as a big favorite last time, but it helps that that day’s winner came right back to win again at next asking. The outside draw is a big plus, and I think he’ll be the one to catch in the Grade 1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt; #4 BABY YODA (7/2): Never looked like a loser in the Grade 2 True North, which he won by six lengths during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. There’s no denying his love of the Saratoga main track, but this does seem like a stronger field; #1 NAKATOMI (5/2): Is a consistent, hard-knocking sort that exits a third-place finish in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. He’s been working steadily at Keeneland ahead of his return, and he should do his best running late beneath Tyler Gaffalione.
R7
Noble Confessor
Tharhom
Chancer McPatrick
#6 NOBLE CONFESSOR (6-1): Sports several flashy drills ahead of his debut in this wide-open baby race. This son of Quality Road boasts a classy female family, including a dam that’s kin to a pair of stakes winners, and we all know how good Todd Pletcher is with first-time starters; #9 THARHOM (4-1): Hammered for $650,000 earlier this year, a massive number considering sire Global Campaign’s modest $12,500 stud fee. His dam is a full sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Yesbyjimminy, and some of the workouts show that he may have plenty of talent; #4 CHANCER MCPATRICK (4-1): Sold for $725,000 in Florida despite a just-OK pedigree, so he must’ve knocked some socks off during his “breeze” at that sale. The most recent work hints that trainer Chad Brown has him on the right track ahead of his debut, and the presence of Flavien Prat is a plus.
R8
Scarlet Poppy
Lamorna
Aunt Nona
#1 SCARLET POPPY (2-1): Responded to cutting back in distance last time out with a good second downstate. There isn’t much other early speed in the race, and the last two works hint that trainer Wesley Ward has tightened the screws on this filly; #7 LAMORNA (9/2): Probably needed his last-out clunker, which was his first start since a near-miss in October of last year. She’s found trouble in most of her outings to date, but she’s also shown a strong late kick and would benefit from a faster-than-expected pace; #5 AUNT NONA (10-1): Didn’t run badly in her debut, especially considering trainer John Kimmel’s horses tend to need a race to get going. She wasn’t too far behind my top selection that day, and a move forward would put her right there at a price.
R9
Pirate (MTO)
Time Song
West Hollywood
#4 TIME SONG (10-1): Was third in a swiftly-run race during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, which came during a time of uncertainty for this barn. The situation’s a bit more stable now, and this field doesn’t seem quite as strong as the one he ran against last month; #8 WEST HOLLYWOOD (4-1): Romped in his American debut two back before being reeled in and settling for second in his first try against winners. Early speed isn’t a bad thing to have on the inner turf, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him dictate terms from the jump beneath Flavien Prat; #12 RISK TOLERANCE (3-1): Did nothing wrong in his debut, when he rallied to graduate at first asking. The far-outside draw is a big problem, and the likely price against a good group hits me as way too short, but he’s got plenty of potential and runs for a barn that merits respect.
R10
Fierceness
Sierra Leone
Gould’s Gold
#6 FIERCENESS (9/5): Gets another shot from me in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy after an absolute dud in the Kentucky Derby. His inconsistency is a problem, but when he’s good, he’s outstanding, and the outside draw in this short field should be a boon to his chances; #1 SIERRA LEONE (1-1): Certainly has the ability to win this, but he also creates his own trouble with regularity and is a closer that draws the rail. I won’t be stunned if he breaks through, but at his likely short price, I simply can’t endorse him on top; #5 GOULD’S GOLD (15-1): Definitely needs to improve on speed figures, but he’s a closer in a race full of early speed. The faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he clunks up for a piece of it at a big price.
R11
Hagrid’s Flame (MTO)
Ez Roll
Teta’s Trotter
#9 EZ ROLL (6-1): Has been competitive at this level in his last two starts and gets a massive rider switch to Frankie Dettori. He’s never run a bad race since being switched to the turf last fall, and I expect him to be flying late; #3 TETA’S TROTTER (15-1): Won at first asking for trainer David Donk, whose first-time starters often need some time. The last-out clunker was disappointing, but he’s got a win over this turf course and attracts John Velazquez for this event; #1 CLEAR CONSCIENCE (4-1): Exits a strong second in a two-turn turf route downstate, and his best efforts have come over similar configurations. Javier Castellano rides back, which is very encouraging, and he may have enough speed to hold early position along the rail.
R12
Summer Whirl
North End Lady
Autumn
#4 SUMMER WHIRL (5/2): Charged late last time out as a 3/2 betting favorite and was beaten just a neck. Her lone outing before that saw her run third in a local turf sprint, and that day’s winner came right back to win again at next asking; #10 NORTH END LADY (5-1): Showed some speed in both of her last two starts, both second-place finishes. Her try on June 8th included her working with an outside post, which she’ll need to do again here, but any trip where she can save some ground moves her up; #5 AUTUMN (6-1): Went to the front early on last time out and settled for third, being beaten less than a length. Her last three turf tries have all been solid, and she’s got plenty of versatility that could come in handy in a wide-open Saturday finale.
Andrew Champagne 