BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $1,006.75
One of my favorite horses in training returns to the track Sunday. That’s Nobals, and yes, he’s a gelding.
Nobals was the key to a very successful Breeders’ Cup last year. I spent the day at the OTB near the Alameda County Fairgrounds in Pleasanton (my adopted home track here in Northern California). It was a chalky day, for the most part, but Nobals put a jolt into the proceedings by winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at double-digit odds.
As an aside, you haven’t lived until you’ve been part of a grown mob screaming, “COME ON, NOBALS!!!” As a further aside, based on Larry Collmus’s call of that race, we can all agree the people insisting it was pronounced “nobles” were lying through their teeth, right?
SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Neither of my spot plays fired. I dropped $25.
SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus my action on my best bet of the program. That’s #6 SHESALITTLE EDGY, and I’ll try to extract some value with $10 exactas using her on top of #2 RIBOT’S VALENTINE and #4 GOLDCREST. In addition, she’ll finish off $5 doubles that start in the second, with #1 TRY IT AGAIN and #5 GOLDEN DAGGER.
TOTAL WAGERED: $30.
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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Shesalittle Edgy, Race 3
Longshot: Two Turntables, Race 6
R1
My Shot
Reliable Source
Donor Advised
#2 MY SHOT (3-1): Makes her debut here after a string of very sharp workouts in Kentucky. This daughter of Constitution sold for $240,000 as a yearling, and Tom Amoss has enjoyed plenty of success at this meet already; #4 RELIABLE SOURCE (5/2): Has an experience edge over most of this group and ran a solid second in her unveiling last month. She rallied from ninth of 11 in that event and attracts Flavien Prat for career start number two; #6 DONOR ADVISED (9/5): Debuts for Chad Brown and has a right to be a good one. She’s a daughter of top sire Gun Runner and sold for $325,000 at last year’s Keeneland sale. The hesitation here is because of the likely short price and the workouts, which are solid but don’t appear spectacular.
R2
Golden Dagger
Try It Again
George’s Vice
#5 GOLDEN DAGGER (4-1): Is a tepid top pick in a claiming race where I don’t have much of an opinion. However, she drops down in class and seems like the lone closer in a race full of low-quality early speed. The question is, can she replicate her turf and synthetic form on dirt?; #1 TRY IT AGAIN (7/2): Hasn’t won in quite a while but exits a decent second at this level and distance downstate. This barn is on a cold streak to start the meet, but this is another that’s at least shown some interest in passing others late; #2 GEORGE’S VICE (5/2): Drops in class from the state-bred allowance ranks and has shown plenty of early zip. Her last two starts against claimers have been wins, though you have to go back to 2023 to find them.
R3
Shesalittle Edgy
Goldcrest
Ribot’s Valentine
#6 SHESALITTLE EDGY (8/5): Drops down in class for this event after being competitive for twice this tag two starts ago. The runaway winner from her last-out effort came back to win again, and this seems like a much softer spot; #4 GOLDCREST (5-1): Gets a big rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., in her debut on this circuit. Most recently, she was a close-up third going a bit longer at Monmouth Park, and she was a runaway winner at this distance two back at Gulfstream (albeit against weaker foes); #2 RIBOT’S VALENTINE (8-1): Comes back to dirt and drops in for a tag after two unsuccessful turf tries downstate. Her lone start at this distance was a win, and she’s a candidate to improve at a bit of a price.
R4
First Class Cat (MTO)
Delightful Dixie
Linarite
#4 DELIGHTFUL DIXIE (9/2): Is 2-for-2 since coming off the bench last month and gets a class test here. However, she’s a speed horse that attracts Luis Saez, one of the top gate riders in the game, and I think she’ll be the one to catch; #2 LINARITE (9/2): Hasn’t won in more than a year but likes this route and came up just short last time out. If the pace is faster than I anticipate, this is the mare that should be the prime beneficiary; #6 FANCYPANTS JULIANA (7/2): Is the stablemate of my second choice, and she probably has a bit more early speed than that one. However, she’s got a history of finding trouble, and she’ll likely be a shorter price than her barn buddy given the presence of Flavien Prat. She’s not impossible, but given the relative lack of value, I’ll look elsewhere.
R5
Regulatory Risk
Sedona
Crushed Ice
#4 REGULATORY RISK (9/5): Takes a big drop in class after running into Thorpedo Anna twice in a row. She was third in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks two back, and she gets Lasix for the first time, which could move her forward further against first-level allowance foes; #7 SEDONA (2-1): Just missed last time out after sitting a few lengths behind a moderate early pace. She’s bred to get better with experience, and there should be some pace for her to chase; #1 CRUSHED ICE (12-1): Has won three in a row on her way up the class ladder and has the early zip to take advantage of the inside draw. This is a much, much tougher group, but she’s certainly on the improve and could lead them a long way at a price.
R6
Opulent Restraint
Two Turntables
Coral Sea
#3 OPULENT RESTRAINT (2-1): Is one of the best-bred 2-year-olds on the grounds, from a turf standpoint. This daughter of Dubawi is out of Significant Form, who won several graded stakes races, and she’s been working steadily for Chad Brown ahead of her unveiling; #8 TWO TURNTABLES (15-1): Didn’t do much running in her debut, but that was on dirt. This daughter of Street Boss and an Empire Maker mare gets to go two turns on turf, which is what she’s bred to do, and Mike Maker trainees sometimes need a race or two to get going; #9 CORAL SEA (6-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher and may be talented enough to overcome the outside post. This daughter of Kingman has a classy female family dating back to third dam Win McCool, a graded stakes winner.
R7
Rivelli entry
Boat’s a Rockin
No Nay Hudson
RIVELLI ENTRY (4/5): #1 NOBALS makes his 2024 debut off a long layoff. The last time we saw him was when he won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, and while this is a very strong group for the level, he’ll be tough to beat if he’s ready to roll; #7 BOAT’S A ROCKIN (10-1): Wired a solid group at this route two starts ago and probably went just a bit too long last time out. He’s a distance specialist through and through, and I expect him to be prominent early; #8 NO NAY HUDSON (6-1): Hasn’t raced since December but is yet another runner with plenty of back class. The recent local drills are very sharp, and Wesley Ward knows how to get horses ready off of long breaks.
R8
Devil’s Cay
For Some Reason
Quick Hammer
#2 DEVIL’S CAY (7/2): Has been running against much better on turf and comes back to the dirt here. His races against similar earlier this year at Aqueduct were solid, and Flavien Prat lands here when he probably had several options; #4 FOR SOME REASON (4-1): Takes a big drop in class for ultra-aggressive connections. His most recent drill was a sharp one here at Saratoga, and I think there’s a chance he just didn’t like Churchill. Gulfstream is a quirky surface, but he showed talent there and has a big chance if he can channel that form; #5 QUICK HAMMER (5-1): Was an impressive wire-to-wire winner two back before tiring as an odds-on favorite last time out. He seems like the main speed in here, and if this track is kind to early zip, he could get comfortable out of the gate beneath Irad Ortiz, Jr.
R9
Silver Knott
Ohana Honor
Soldier Rising
#2 SILVER KNOTT (4/5): Has won back-to-back Grade 2 events since the switch to Flavien Prat and looms large in the Grade 2 Bowling Green. Simply put, anything close to what we’ve seen from him this season would make him very, very hard to beat, and his status as a likely odds-on favorite reflects that; #1 OHANA HONOR (7/2): Exits a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Manhattan, which was won by Measured Time in very impressive fashion. He chased my top pick two back, and while it sure seems like he’s a little better with Lasix, he’s got what it takes to get a big piece of this; #5 SOLDIER RISING (4-1): Hasn’t run since November and hasn’t won since 2022, but has shown a strong closing kick and was second in three Grade 1 events a season ago. There does seem to be some speed signed on; the question is, is he ready to go off of such a long break? Given the quality of my top choice, he may have to be.
R10
Wine Responsibly (MTO)
Miracle Mike
Laurel Valley
#3 MIRACLE MIKE (5-1): Didn’t get his desired trip last time out and still ran a very big race. He was third that day after being on the lead, and nothing about his prior form says that’s what he wants to do. His lone prior turf race this year was a win, and I think he’s well-meant in the Sunday nightcap; #2 LAUREL VALLEY (9/5): Would be far from shocking and is a likely heavy favorite. However, he’s had favorable setups in each of his last two starts and hasn’t gotten the job done. It’s logical to ask what changes here, especially given the relative lack of value; #7 SLAPINTHEFACE (3-1): May have needed his last race, which came off a very long break and only saw him be beaten a few lengths. Improvement is logical second off the bench, and he should be moving the right way late.
Andrew Champagne 