BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $954.75

In conversation with a friend the other day, I mentioned that the lasting influence of Maximum Security’s 2019 Kentucky Derby disqualification has nothing to do with that race itself. Instead, it spotlighted that racing has no single, solid, concrete answer to the question, “what is a foul that merits disqualification?”

This was more than five years ago, and nothing has changed in that regard. If you ask that question to racing officials from four different jurisdictions within the United States, it’s possible you get four different answers.

The job of a steward isn’t an easy one. Very few decisions are black and white, and whatever action gets taken is going to tick somebody off. Having said that, the lack of consistency, at times, is baffling and would never be accepted in any other major sport.

What is a foul that merits disqualification? After the events of Thursday’s seventh race, I remain in search of an answer.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: I had the right idea going against a vulnerable favorite in the eighth, but used the wrong closer. Six Percent was nowhere close, and I dropped $22.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’m coming out swinging with plays in the opener, as #4 TWO SHARP sure looks just that. I’ll have a $15 win bet on her, and I’ll player her on top of a $5 cold exacta that uses #1 SHE’S WICKED SMART underneath. In addition, she’s a single in $5 doubles that finish with #1 TRIUMPHANT ROAD/#1A PAXSATIONAL, #5 HURRICANE EXPRESS, and #6 SIX KINGS.

TOTAL WAGERED: $35.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Cinderella’s Dream, Race 8
Longshot: Gallant Greta, Race 10

R1

Two Sharp
She’s Wicked Smart
Stellify

#4 TWO SHARP (7/5): Ran well to be second in her debut despite being rushed up into contention after a slow start. She’s worked very well since that initial outing, and logical improvement would make her very tough in the Friday opener; #1 SHE’S WICKED SMART (12-1): Had every right to need her last-out clunker given that it was her first race since August. The lone prior effort was a solid third in her debut, a race won by eventual champion Just F Y I; #6 STELLIFY (5/2): Makes her debut in this spot and has every right to be a runner. This daughter of Justify has been working steadily for Brad Cox and draws a cushy outside post, which could come in handy.

R2

Six Kings
Hurricane Express
Barker entry

#6 SIX KINGS (9/2): Goes to the turf in his first start for Joe Sharp, and he’s bred to love the lawn. His dam is a half-sister to Film Maker, one of the best turf distaffers on the circuit in her day, and this is also his first start off the geld and first start against maiden claimers; #5 HURRICANE EXPRESS (4-1): Hasn’t run since February and comes back for a tag. These are aggressive connections, so that’s not necessarily a disqualifying move. He did have an excuse in his debut, when he didn’t break all that well going two turns first time out; BARKER ENTRY (10-1): I prefer #1A PAXSATIONAL, who showed speed in his last outing. That was his first start in 11 months, and the pace he set was a solid one. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him up top early, and if he’s a bit sharper, he may be the one they have to catch late.

R3

Perform
Power Seeker
Costa Terra

#1 PERFORM (5/2): Was caught wide all around the track last time out and was only beaten less than a length. The inside draw should help him considerably, and he’s got enough speed to claim a prime spot going into the first turn; #6 POWER SEEKER (3-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but his second-place finish last time out was a solid effort in his first two-turn outing. Given his pedigree, I’m surprised it took the connections so long to stretch him out, and he may be doing what he wants; #3 COSTA TERRA (4-1): Has hit the board in four of five local starts and will be doing his best running late. There’s some speed in this event, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., inspires some confidence.

R4

Athena Beach
Gone and Forgotten
Tricky Temper

#1 ATHENA BEACH (7/2): Is one of several win-types in here and merits a tepid top pick in a wide-open event. The cutback to six furlongs should help her, and while she misfired here twice last year, one effort was going two turns, and another came right before a very long layoff (so it’s safe to assume something went wrong); #2 GONE AND FORGOTTEN (5/2): Hasn’t won in quite a while but boasts several strong efforts in a row coming into this event. Most recently, she ran second in a similar spot at Aqueduct, and Frankie Dettori getting the mount is interesting; #3 TRICKY TEMPER (8/5): Has had some gate issues in both of her local starts this year. If she channels her 2023 form, she’s got a chance, but I can’t swallow her likely short price on a significant “if,” so I’m against her.

R5

Fantasy Performer
Luna Love
Pay the Bills

#8 FANTASY PERFORMER (6-1): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees here, but while she’s the bigger price, I think she’s the most live one. She didn’t break well in her lone prior start, so there was an excuse there, and she comes back with Lasix, blinkers, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., in a race where there are no world-beaters; #3 LUNA LOVE (10-1): Comes back to the turf after a distant fifth in an off-the-turf race a few weeks ago. Her two-back effort against similar at Gulfstream wasn’t bad, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she steps forward at a price; #7 PAY THE BILLS (5/2): Is the Brown trainee many will bet, but I’m not 100% sold. She was one-paced in her unveiling in June, her recent workouts are slow, and this is a $200,000 auction purchase in for a $40,000 tag.

R6

Own the Field (MTO)
Emirates Road
Gilded Craken

#10 EMIRATES ROAD (6-1): Runs first off the claim for Brad Cox, who doesn’t claim many runners but boasts a stellar record with new acquisitions. His two-back effort at Pimlico was excellent, and while the outside draw isn’t ideal, I’m expecting a big effort (and certainly an improvement over his last-out clunker); #1 GILDED CRAKEN (5-1): May have been a bit too far back last time out, but still salvaged a solid second against similar company. Luis Saez sees fit to ride back, and I expect him to be much more forwardly-placed in this event; #8 FAIR HAIRED BOY (20-1): Has a lot of back form, albeit from several years ago, and his last-out effort at Parx shows he may have some gas left in the tank. He does need a pace to run at, but if he gets one, I’m expecting him to rally for a piece of this.

R7

Maggie T
Santagata
Carol T

#6 MAGGIE T (7/2): Hasn’t missed the exacta in her last four starts and looks like one of the main speed horses in a seven-furlong event that’s a bit light on it. She doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well, which helps, and she’s been competitive in all four prior outings at this distance; #3 SANTAGATA (9/2): Took a big step forward at second asking to dust maiden special weight foes and tries winners for the first time. That’s not a small step up in class, but given her relative inexperience, she’s got plenty of room to move forward for a solid outfit; #7 CAROL T (4-1): Showed a bit more early speed last time out, when she was third downstate and may have moved a hair too soon. Her best game may be sitting way back and making one run, and she sure looks like a different horse since the addition of Lasix three starts ago.

R8

Cinderella’s Dream
Segesta
Greenfinch

#1 CINDERELLA’S DREAM (6/5): Has a price that’s tough to swallow in the Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks, but she couldn’t have been much more impressive in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks. She rated off of a moderate pace and gobbled up ground late. William Buick’s traveled across the pond for this one, and that’s often a clue that a Charles Appleby runner is sitting on a big one; #6 SEGESTA (7/2): Did a lot of the dirty work up front in the Belmont Oaks and had to settle for second. The presence of #4 MACANGA may make life a bit difficult for her, but I expect this one to be in front when they turn for home; #5 GREENFINCH (9/2): Comes over to the U.S. for Aidan O’Brien, who’s brought all-world jockey Ryan Moore in for the mount. She hasn’t quite run up against top-tier competition in Europe yet, but these connections are no strangers to success on American soil.

R9

Neat
Army Officer
Buttercream Babe

#4 NEAT (5/2): Has won five of eight lifetime starts, including a pair of graded stakes races, and he’s a logical favorite in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame. I’m expecting him to be up close early on, and unlike many of his rivals, he’s shown he can run a top-class race without Lasix in his system; #8 ARMY OFFICER (7/2): Steps up in class, but does so after a sharp win in an optional claimer at this route back in June. Frankie Dettori rides back for Brad Cox, and he’s a contender if horse and rider can work out a trip from a tricky post; #2 BUTTERCREAM BABE (8-1): Faces the boys in this spot, which seems a bit ambitious on paper, but there aren’t any monsters in this spot and she fits on speed figures. Her two-back win at this route was a good one, and she exits a solid second in a stakes race at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

R10

Geopolitics
Gallant Greta
Blue Suede Sue

#9 GEOPOLITICS (7/5): Will be a very heavy favorite in a race that hits me as a “now or never” spot. She’s had four near-misses in as many starts, but draws favorably, looks like the speed of the speed, and could prove very tough to run down; #8 GALLANT GRETA (12-1): Makes her first start in this spot off of a big five-furlong gate drill here last week. That’s not the only sharp work on her tab, she’s kin to four winners, and her female family has produced, among others, multiple Grade 1 winner and top-tier broodmare Take Charge Lady; #2 BLUE SUEDE SUE (6-1): Is another first-time starter with a solid series of drills ahead of her unveiling. This barn hasn’t gotten going yet at this stand, but it’s enlisted first-call rider Luis Saez, who should have this filly up close early on.