BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $2,048

My fiancee doesn’t like it when I say this, but she’s a saint. She’s a fifth-grade teacher at a public elementary school near Oakland, which means that, yes, she has to deal with 30 10-year-olds every day, then deal with me.

I say this because, as the school year starts, she’s in need of some help and has started a Donors Choose project. I will always gladly share word of any drives or efforts she’s got going on, especially during the one time of year where my content reaches a pretty wide audience.

You can donate by clicking this link. If you’ve hit for a nice chunk of change recently and are looking for a good cause to support, I can assure you this checks that box.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Said fiancee got a show at a suburban ice cream shop, where we watched May Day Ready and Frankie Dettori take the seventh at odds of 25-1 (my enthusiastic response, she jokes, means we’re now banned from the property). A $20 win bet and $5 exacta both cashed, returning $1,153.75 on a $36 investment. I’m pretty sure that’s a Pink Sheet bankroll record.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: We’ll head to the fourth, where I’m against #5 UNIT ECONOMICS and will bet against the favorite accordingly. First, I’ll play $4 exactas using #2 VICTORS VALIANT and #6 BARRAGE on top of those two, #1 ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA, and Unit Economics. I’ll box my top two horses in additional $2 exactas, and those two will finish off a $2 Pick Three that starts in the second. That ticket goes as follows: 8 with 1,2,3 with 2,6.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Neuschwanstein, Race 7
Longshot: Victors Valiant, Race 4

R1

Zarak the Brave
Kiyomori
Hold Hard

#2 ZARAK THE BRAVE (1-1): Depending on which PP’s you use, you may not see his recent resume. Brisnet and TwinSpires do not show his races from 2023 and 2024, which include a fourth-place finish at Cheltenham against some top-tier steeplechase horses in England. Anything close to his European form would make him a handful in the Jonathan Kiser, assuming they finally get to run it Wednesday after several postponements; #3 KIYOMORI (4-1): Turned a corner late last year and exits a third-place finish in a similar-level stakes race in his 2024 debut. Unlike many others in here, he’s shown he can win without Lasix, and the flexible running style also helps; #1 HOLD HARD (5-1): Has won two in a row and sure looks like a horse hitting peak form as a 5-year-old. The spot he exits is a salty one, as several horses that finished behind him came back to win at next asking.

R2

Will Not Be Swayed
Tiz Purple
Royal Princess

#8 WILL NOT BE SWAYED (8/5): Did everything but win last time, when she fell a neck short to a promising filly and finished 14 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. She may not need to move forward at all to beat these, and if she does take a step forward, look out; #7 TIZ PURPLE (4-1): Ships up from Monmouth after running a solid second in her unveiling. She made up some ground late, which isn’t easy to do in a five-furlong race, and the presence of Tyler Gaffalione is notable; #6 ROYAL PRINCESS (6-1): Debuts for a barn connecting with 22% of first-time starters, and she’s posted some solid drills at Laurel ahead of her unveiling. Her female family’s a pretty classy one, and she could be live in her debut at a bit of a price.

R3

Dillinger
Own the Field
Master of Arms

#3 DILLINGER (6-1): Blew the doors off a field of claimers last time out, when he drew away powerfully to win by more than eight lengths. On paper, this is a step up, but it’s far from the strongest starter allowance we’ll see at the meet, and it sure seems like he loves it here; #1 OWN THE FIELD (2-1): Has been competitive here twice this summer and cuts back to seven furlongs after a race out of the chute where he didn’t save any ground. That’s not the desired trip at that route, and while he hasn’t won in a while, he’s got potential to move forward and he’s not a terrible favorite; #2 MASTER OF ARMS (9/2): Ships in after a few unsuccessful tries at Churchill and has shown plenty of early zip in the past. I’m not convinced he wants seven furlongs, but he should be forwardly-placed and may be the one they have to catch.

R4

Classic Legacy (MTO)
Victors Valiant
Barrage

#2 VICTORS VALIANT (8-1): Hasn’t run a bad one in three starts on this circuit and was a good second last time out in a race that hits me as a stronger one than this heat. His two-back win here was a good one, and he retains the services of top jock Flavien Prat (side note: Go Blue!); #6 BARRAGE (5-1): Goes back to Ray Handal’s barn after a downstate effort that was too bad to be true. He’s shown plenty of early zip, which is a great thing to have on the inner turf, and he’s run very well over this turf course in the past; #5 UNIT ECONOMICS (6/5): Merits respect based on the connections, but while he’s got a shot, the likely price hits me as a considerably underlay. He’s had some gate issues in the past, and while his turn of foot is a good one, this field is nothing to sneeze at. At his price, I’ll try to beat him.

R5

All That Magic
Sunday Shoes
Speedy Traveler

#2 ALL THAT MAGIC (5/2): Has ample back class and gets Lasix dropping back into the allowance/optional claiming ranks. She’s clearly a far better horse with that in her system, and a return to her 2023 form (which helped her win six times that year) would make her the one to beat; #1 SUNDAY SHOES (5-1): Has won a stakes race on synthetic and exits a failed try in the Grade 3 Whimsical at Woodbine. Her two-back turf drill was very sharp, and the Wesley Ward/Flavien Prat combination isn’t one to ignore; #6 SPEEDY TRAVELER (6-1): Won three in a row at Fair Grounds earlier this year and is set to try turf for the first time. There’s a chance she’s the speed of the speed, and honestly, I partially need to use her just in case this race comes off the grass.

R6

Moonlit Weekend
Grammy Girl
La Vita Sofia

#1 MOONLIT WEEKEND (6-1): Is a tepid top pick in a race where I truly lack a strong opinion. She draws favorably in this race out of the Wilson chute, though, and the significant rider change to Jose Ortiz should move her forward; too; #8 GRAMMY GIRL (4-1): Takes a significant drop after chasing $50,000 claimers downstate last time out. That race’s distance may have been a bit short for her, and while the outside draw isn’t ideal, she could certainly improve getting back to a longer trip against weaker competition; #4 LA VITA SOFIA (9/2): Hasn’t won in a while, but is another dropping in class, and she cuts back from a two-turn route against starter allowance foes. Her lone career win came at this distance, and the Rudy Rodriguez barn is starting to heat up after a rough start to the meet.

R7

Neuschwanstein
Unclecharliesgift
Stormquist

#11 NEUSCHWANSTEIN (3-1): Showed speed last time out in his first start off a five-month break and ships up to run here for a tag. Toss the race right before the layoff, and his form looks considerably better. Add in the potential to improve second off the bench, and he looks pretty imposing; #8 UNCLECHARLIESGIFT (8-1): Has had gate issues, but responded to the drop last time out by rallying to be third behind Dillinger (who I like a lot earlier in the day). I worry he’ll have too much to do late, but in a race with a fair amount of cheap speed, I do think he’ll get the setup he wants; #4 STORMQUIST (10-1): Makes his first start off the claim after setting a very, very fast pace for the level last time out. Several of his early-2024 efforts were pretty sharp, and he’s shown an ability to stalk and pounce, which could prove helpful.

R8

Bustin Bay
Smokin’ Hot Kitty
Sterling Silver

#5 BUSTIN BAY (8-1): Stretches back out to a route in the Johnstone Mile after going way too short last time out. She’s an honest, hard-trying mare who won’t have an issue with this distance, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., is certainly a plus; #3 SMOKIN’ HOT KITTY (7/2): Seems like the main speed in here, which is always dangerous coming out of the Wilson chute. She’s won four of her last five starts, with the lone misfire being a turf experiment, and if she gets comfortable early, she could prove tough to catch; #2 STERLING SILVER (7/5): Certainly has plenty of back class, but I have serious doubts (especially at her likely short price). There’s nothing saying she wants to go a mile, she may need far more pace than she’s likely to get, and there’s also a chance we may have seen the best of her at this point.

R9

Bearings (MTO)
St. Elias entry
Riverwalk

ST. ELIAS ENTRY (1-1): I prefer #1A ADVENTUROUS SPIRIT, who looks every bit like the one to beat in the Wednesday finale. He’s been competitive against maiden special weight foes at multiple tracks, and this field seems like a weak one for the maiden claiming level; #6 RIVERWALK (4-1): Probably never had a chance last time out, when he raced very wide throughout at Aqueduct. His draw is a bit better here, and he’s a contender if he can run back to a few of his Gulfstream races from earlier this season; #2 PUJOL (15-1): Was third in a similar race early in the meet and was very, very far behind early on in that event. His two Saratoga races are easily the best ones he’s ever run, and I think he’s got a shot to hit the board at a price.