BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $2,048

Having to handicap for weather is a fact of life at Saratoga. I’ve joked that, at times, one needs to handicap turf races at least three different ways (for firm turf, wet turf, and the main track). This year’s meet, though, has been as draining as any I can remember.

A pair of turf races will be moved to Sunday’s card. To be honest, I can’t see a scenario where they run on the grass at all on Saturday, which affects two other stakes races (the Troy and the Galway). With that in mind, most of my handicapping assumes turf races will be run on the main track. I can’t go against Cogburn or Star of Mystery if they run, but given the weather and likely track conditions, I don’t think those scenarios are likely.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: My action was cancelled for a second straight day when races were moved off the turf in the middle of the card.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: My action comes very, very early, and focuses on my best bet of the day. That’s #4 AVIATOR GUI in the opener. I’ll have a $20 win ticket on that one, to go along with $5 exactas keying him on top of #1 INNOVATOR and #6 NANTZ. Finally, I’ll play a cold $10 double using Aviator Gui with #1 HURRICANE NELSON in the second.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Aviator Gui, Race 1
Longshot: Showcase, Race 8

R1

Aviator Gui
Innovator
Nantz

#4 AVIATOR GUI (3-1): Is bred to be any kind and debuts after a series of strong workouts. This son of Uncle Mo has a dam who’s kin to Hall of Famer Gun Runner, and while seven furlongs is a tough distance to debut at, a lot says he’s talented enough to do it; #1 INNOVATOR (2-1): Stepped up at second asking to run a strong second going a bit shorter. He’s got an experience edge over his opponents here, and of the ones that have run before, he’s clearly got the best prior effort; #6 NANTZ (5-1): Makes his first start for Todd Pletcher and is another with a world-class pedigree. His dam was a very classy sprinter, and he hammered for $600,000 at Keeneland last year (likely after whinnying, “hello, friends,” as he entered the sales ring).

R2

Hurricane Nelson
Banned for Life
Wajda

#1 HURRICANE NELSON (1-1): Has hit the board in all four prior tries, including two efforts over this track. One of them was a strong last-out effort, which came off a very long layoff, and any sort of a step forward would make him very, very tough to beat; #4 BANNED FOR LIFE (9/2): Responded to the cutback in distance with a solid third last time out, and he’s got plenty of experience over wet tracks. Luis Saez hops aboard, and he’s beginning to heat up after a very slow start to the summer; #3 WAJDA (6-1): Hasn’t run since November, but gets Lasix, the ultimate equipment change (being gelded), and Flavien Prat for his return. They saw fit to pay $425,000 for him at last year’s OBS sale, and these are aggressive connections that wouldn’t hesitate to drop him in for a tag if he wasn’t doing well.

R3

The Bullion Bomber
Secret Rules
Disco Deano

#3 THE BULLION BOMBER (7/2): Is protected from being claimed in his first try off the bench, which is enough for me to give him a tepid nod in a wide-open event. Protection often indicates connections are high on a horse and don’t want to lose it He’s shown plenty of early zip in the past and Irad Ortiz, Jr., hops aboard; #4 SECRET RULES (9/5): Is one of two in here for Linda Rice and has run some of his better races in the mud. His best form could win this, but Rice’s class-droppers are often overbet, and if he’s so well-meant, why is #2 ZEEBEAR also running for this barn?; #5 DISCO DEANO (5-1): Pulled off a 35-1 shocker here last time out and comes back at a slightly higher level. He’s won two of six starts over wet tracks and showed last time that he could stalk a hot pace, which may materialize in here.

R4

Miss Fashionista
Magic Eight Ball
Mim

This is the first carded turf race, and my usual method of analysis doesn’t work for races that are probably being moved to the main track. Of the ones in here, #9 MISS FASHIONISTA (6-1) has the most dirt form. I’m not crazy about the possible post coming out of the Wilson chute, but she takes a big drop in class and her winter form at Aqueduct would be enough to get the money.

R5

Spiritual Lady
Devil Blue Dress
Grab the Glory

#7 SPIRITUAL LADY (5/2): Takes a big class drop to run here and is one of only a few that’s shown any interest in passing others late. Her lone career win to date was over a sloppy track at Keeneland, and Tyler Gaffalione (her pilot that day) sees fit to hop back aboard; #5 DEVIL BLUE DRESS (2-1): Is another going way down the class ladder. She’s shown speed and faded against higher-quality groups, and she’s bred to love a wet track (being by Into Mischief and out of a Distorted Humor mare); #6 GRAB THE GLORY (5-1): Freaked in her lone start over a wet track, when she won by seven lengths in March at Aqueduct. She’s yet to duplicate that effort in two subsequent starts, but perhaps the deluge that’s hit Saratoga will move her forward.

R6: POSTPONED

R7

The Boondocker (MTO)
Royal Presence
Clock Tower (AE)

If this comes off the turf, I’m intrigued by main-track-only runner #12 THE BOONDOCKER (8-1). He sold for $325,000 at the OBS sale despite a pretty underwhelming pedigree, which meant his “breeze” (I can’t call it that without some sarcasm considering how much horses are asked for in these works) must’ve been impressive.

R8

Showcase
First Resort
Touchy

#2 SHOWCASE (6-1): Did a lot right in his debut, when he drew away powerfully to win by nearly eight lengths. He’s been working consistently since then, and the tag team of Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr., looks like it holds a strong hand in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special; #4 FIRST RESORT (7/2): Splashed home to win his debut at Ellis Park over a muddy track for a barn whose horses often need some time to get going. Flavien Prat’s been enlisted to ride, and while I’m not sure what he beat in his debut, this one sure seems to merit respect; #5 TOUCHY (5/2): Debuted in the Tremont back in June and did a lot of the dirty work up front before being passed late. He could win if he moves forward, but this isn’t a bad group, and given the way he ran last time out, I’m not sure if the extra furlong helps him.

R9

Cogburn
Witty
Disarmed (MTO)

If #4 COGBURN (1/2) runs, I can’t bet against him, regardless of the surface. If he doesn’t, I’ll go with #1 WITTY (12-1), who’s finished in the top two in nine of 13 career dirt starts. I wish I could expound more, but there’s simply not much I can say given the weather providing so many unknowns here.

R10: POSTPONED

R11

Printrack
Poppy’s Pride
Dot’s Dollar

#6 PRINTRACK (2-1): Went way too fast early on last time in a race that wound up falling apart late. I think this field is a bit weaker than the one he beat last time, and he’s shown an off track won’t hurt him, either; #1 POPPY’S PRIDE (5-1): Gets a big rider switch to Dylan Davis, who’s taken a massive step forward at this stand. He’s got the speed to be able to use the inside draw to his advantage, and this is another that’s got some very fast early fractions on his sheet; #4 DOT’S DOLLAR (9/2): Ran too poorly to be true last time out, where it seems like he wasn’t persevered with by jockey Flavien Prat. Prat rides back, which is a good sign, and like last time, it certainly seems as though he’ll have plenty of pace to chase.

R12

Star of Mystery
Halina’s Forte (MTO)
Value Area (MTO)

Similar to Cogburn, if #5 STAR OF MYSTERY (2/5) runs, she’ll be very imposing, but it’s highly likely this race moves to the dirt. If so, the first two main-track-only horses, #10 HALINA’S FORTE (2-1) and #11 VALUE AREA (9/2), look tough. Hopefully we’ll be back on the turf Sunday!