SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, And Bankroll For August 15th, 2024

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,933

NYRA aired a feature on the Davis family as part of its Wednesday broadcast. It’s a bit older, but it’s one of my favorites. I grew up watching Robbie “On The Rail” ride across the New York circuit, and seeing his kids ride at a high level is pretty cool (especially since one of them, Dylan, has taken one of the biggest steps forward by a jockey in recent memory).

Back when I worked for HRTV (prior to its acquisition by the network now known as FanDuel TV), the ace production team put together an episode of “Inside Information” focusing on the family. This was quite a while ago, but it still holds up well. It’s on the Stronach Group’s Vimeo channel, and if you’ve got a half-hour, it’s well worth a watch.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Revalita didn’t start well in the eighth and had too much to do. One of my “underneath” horses won, but Revalita could only salvage third, and I dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: Let’s go to the sixth, a 2-year-old race I find fascinating. I’ll key #6 CHELSEY’S CHOICE and #9 DR GLICK on top of $4 exactas that use those two, #4 COMPETITIVE MARKET, and #10 WONDERLAND underneath, and I’ll use my top picks in an additional $2 exacta box. Finally, I’ll kick off $3 doubles with those two and finish them with #1 EZ ROLL and #4 COURTLY BANKER in the seventh (the Rick Violette).

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Donegal Forever, Race 8
Longshot: Charles J, Race 9

R1

Keepinitreal
Vibrant Express
Man of Mischief

#9 KEEPINITREAL (4-1): Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open Thursday opener. This son of City of Light is out of a mare that was a 2-year-old stakes winner, and the steady string of workouts for Chad Brown hint that this colt could be ready to go; #8 VIBRANT EXPRESS (3-1): Is a son of Vekoma, whose first batch of offspring has been very, very impressive to this point. His bottom-side pedigree isn’t too shabby, either, as his stakes-winning dam has thrown no less than seven winners to date; #3 MAN OF MISCHIEF (5/2): Debuted earlier this summer and was a solid second, beating that day’s third-place finisher by nearly 10 lengths. This barn’s first-time starters sometimes need a race to get going, and improvement is logical at second asking (though this spot seems a bit tougher than the one he exits).

R2

Dubb entry
Chess Master
D’Angelo entry

DUBB ENTRY (7/5): Is a rare three-horse entry, and no horse in the trio would be a shock. I most prefer #2X HIGH FRONT, who takes a massive drop in class to run against $32,000 claimers and won a stakes race sprinting on turf last summer; #7 CHESS MASTER (3-1): Hasn’t run since October but is a major player if he’s ready to go. He contested last year’s Harvey Pack at this route of ground, which came after a win at this level last August; #3 RITHM NIC (5-1): Was claimed last time out after wiring a field of turf sprinters in his local debut. Jose D’Angelo does strong work with new acquisitions, and he sure looks like one of the main speeds in this spot (a stronger one, though, than the one he comes out of).

R3

Repole entry
Ignite the Light
Prairie Dunes

REPOLE ENTRY (2/5): Boasts two major players, though I prefer #1 PENTATHLON after the draw. That one gets a cushy inside draw coming out of the Wilson chute, exits a hard-luck second downstate, and was third two starts ago in what’s turned out to be a key race; #6 IGNITE THE LIGHT (10-1): Makes his first start in nearly six months but sports several flashy drills ahead of his return. This isn’t a barn that works its horses very fast, and the presence of Frankie Dettori doesn’t hurt, either; #4 PRAIRIE DUNES (8-1): Has had his share of issues, with just two starts since January of 2023. However, it can be argued his best race came here in his debut, when he was a fast-closing second behind a highly-regarded winner.

R4

Classic Mark
He’s Got This
Allaboutthemoney

#2 CLASSIC MARK (5/2): Was one of several horses eliminated at the start last time out (why the stewards didn’t take a look at that remains a mystery). He was claimed by Joe Sharp that day and gets a big switch to jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who will likely be gunning this one to the front from his inside post; #7 HE’S GOT THIS (3-1): Takes a big drop first off the claim for Mike Maker and may have been my top pick with a better post. His two-turn form is a plus given the quirky configuration of this route, and a repeat of his winning effort two starts ago would give him a big shot; #6 ALLABOUTTHEMONEY (4-1): Was second in the same race my top pick exits, though he undoubtedly got a bit lucky with several prime contenders being compromised at the start. He hasn’t won in a while, but would benefit from another rival going with my top selection early.

R5

Call Bob
Very Stormy
Concorde Spirit

#7 CALL BOB (7/2): Looked home and cooled out last time out, but was run down by a super-impressive first-time starter who closed against a bias. This sprint doesn’t seem heavy on early zip, and the outside draw means jockey Jaime Torres could have plenty of options out of the gate; #8 VERY STORMY (8-1): Was a close-up second last time out in a race where the third-place finisher was well back. This is a step up in class out of the maiden claiming ranks, but he seems to be going the right way, and the same can be said for jockey Luis Saez; #6 CONCORDE SPIRIT (5/2): Rallied a bit in his debut to be third for a barn whose first-time starters aren’t always fully-cranked. I’m expecting a step forward in his second career start, although such improvement might be needed in a reasonably strong race for the level.

R6

Dr Glick
Chelsey’s Choice
Wonderland

#9 DR GLICK (4-1): Is one of two debuting runners from the Chad Brown barn, and this is the filly I prefer. Flavien Prat lands here, both sides of her pedigree seem to indicate she’s got potential, and a few of her workouts hint that, too; #6 CHELSEY’S CHOICE (10-1): Merits a long look at a price given a world-class turf pedigree. This daughter of American Pharoah is out of a War Front mare, and her bottom-side breeding includes a third dam that threw two Group 1 winners overseas; #10 WONDERLAND (7/2): Draws a terrible post for her debut, but this barn has been winning a ton here and first-call rider Jose Ortiz has the mount. She sold for $385,000 at the OBS sale earlier this year, and if nothing else, it sure looks like two turns on turf is what she wants.

R7

Doc Sullivan (MTO)
Courtly Banker
Ez Roll

#4 COURTLY BANKER (4-1): Is a maiden in a stakes race, but he ran well to be second at this level last time out, and that day’s runaway winner skips this spot. John Velazquez rides back, and he’s got enough tactical speed to sit an ideal trip in the Rick Violette; #1 EZ ROLL (12-1): Has a record that looks much better if you draw a line through his last-out clunker. Forgive that effort, and you’ve got a horse that’s shown some talent, gets Luis Saez, and looks like an overlay at or near his morning line price; #3 INSTAMATIC (7/2): Stretches out to two turns after back-to-back scores downstate going much shorter. I don’t know if two turns is truly what he wants, but his two recent victories have been professional and he doesn’t have to move forward much to be a player.

R8

Donegal Forever
Cooke Creek
Classic Catch

#2 DONEGAL FOREVER (2-1): Has a record that looks much, much better if you toss his two efforts run without Lasix. Do that, and you have a horse with three wins in four starts (the lone defeat came when he chased eventual Whitney winner Arthur’s Ride). I think he sits an ideal trip and gets first run turning for home; #3 COOKE CREEK (9/5): Has won two in a row, including an impressive score first off the claim for new trainer Mike Maker. This is probably a stronger group, and the potential for a bounce off of a much-improved effort is there, but further improvement would make him a handful; #6 CLASSIC CATCH (4-1): Is a deep closer and would benefit from a pace meltdown. Such a scenario isn’t impossible here, in a race with several runners who appear to need the lead, and he may be the one they have to hold off late.

R9

Accidental Bid (MTO)
Charles J
New York Scrappy

#8 CHARLES J (8-1): Gets Lasix and Frankie Dettori in this spot, and I think he’s got plenty of potential to improve. He pressed a solid pace two back and should get a much friendlier trip in here. A step forward from that race gives him a chance at a square price; #7 NEW YORK SCRAPPY (9/2): Goes back to the turf after a disappointing effort last time out. He dueled through a very fast opening quarter-mile that day, and more distance plus a surface switch could put him in a much better position; #6 KID KREESA (6-1): Did everything but win last time out, when he led for all but the last stride at odds of 31-1. It was a painful defeat if you needed him (like me…), and he shows up here looking like a major pace factor.

R10

Majestic Return (MTO)
Strictly Taboo
Risk Threshold

#4 STRICTLY TABOO (6-1): Is certainly a “horse for the course,” with two wins in as many starts at this route since coming back off the bench. I loved her in a spot last week that was cancelled, and while this seems like a tougher group of opponents, it certainly seems like she’s thriving; #10 RISK THRESHOLD (7/2): Earned the diploma last time out and looks like a possible “speed of the speed” type. She’s run well in all three starts to date, and Joel Rosario landing here (instead of on my top pick) seems notable; #9 RILEY JEAN (8-1): Ran well a few weeks ago when she closed to finish second beaten less than a length. She’s turned a corner since coming up north, and while I think she’s a bit better on synthetic, she’d benefit from a battle up front and should be going the right way late.

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