BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,901

Saturday is Alabama Day at Saratoga, and it’s one of my favorite cards of the year. I’m a sucker for races contested at the classic 1 1/4-mile distance. We don’t breed horses that go that far anymore, so seeing the cream of the crop do that in front of tens of thousands of people excites me.

Thorpedo Anna running in the Travers hurts this race’s star power, but it also does a big, big favor. That filly would be 1/5 in the Alabama, and justifiably so. Because she’s running elsewhere, it’s a much better race for handicapping and betting, especially if you don’t love 7/5 morning line favorite Candied (and I don’t).

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: I was able to write this up early because my two key plays both scratched.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: This comes with a note that, if deadline times weren’t an issue, I’d be playing the Alabama (specifically #3 POWER SQUEEZE). However, to make things easier on the folks working to put The Pink Sheet together, my play comes in the fifth. 5/2 isn’t an exciting price on #7 MACAW, but I think that one is far and away the most likely winner. I’ll have a $30 win ticket on that one, plus $4 exactas using him on top of #4 SALACIOUS and #9 RAMESSES. In addition, I’ll single Macaw in $4 doubles that start in the fifth and end with #6 BETTRLUCKYTHANGOOD, #7 LET’S GO BIG BLUE, and #8 AGENT CREED.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Macaw, Race 5
Longshot: Spaliday, Race 9

R1

Jonathan’s Way
West Point entry
McHale

#6 JONATHAN’S WAY (4-1): Debuts for Phil Bauer, whose horses have been very live to this point in the meet. This son of Vekoma is out of a mare who won first time out and added a stakes win later in her 2-year-old campaign. If he runs to a few of his workouts, he’ll be dangerous; WEST POINT ENTRY (7/5): The money will likely go to #1 SANSONE, a son of blue hen mare Diva Delite. That makes him a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Midnight Bisou, as well as stakes winners Verifying and Stage Left. My only hesitation here is that this looks like a fantastic two-turn prospect, not necessarily like a horse that has to win first time out; #4 MCHALE (6-1): Sold for $220,000 earlier this year, and while this barn’s first-time starters usually need a race, there are some solid drills on his tab. John Velazquez sees fit to ride, and that might be a clue.

R2

Brown entry
Royal’s Pride
Concord Green

#1 ASBURY PARK (5-1): Comes stateside after being purchased in the UK last year and has every right to be a turf monster. He’s by Frankel, out of a Street Cry mare, and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., in his unveiling for top trainer Chad Brown; #7 ROYAL’S PRIDE (8-1): Boasts one of the best pedigrees you’ll ever see. This son of Dubawi is out of a daughter of Hall of Famer Royal Delta, who herself is a daughter of Delta Princess, a stakes-winning turfer that threw two Grade 1 winners on the grass; #5 CONCORD GREEN (8-1): Debuts for Shug McGaughey and is another that has a right to be a very strong turf horse. He’s a son of War Front and kin to Grade 3 winner Scarlett Sky, and red-hot rider Dylan Davis will be in the irons.

R3

Nic’s Style
Bandita
Benedetta

#4 NIC’S STYLE (9/5): Hasn’t run in eight months but has done nothing wrong to this point, with two runaway wins in as many starts. She’s been working steadily for Bill Mott ahead of her return, and a few of her drills are very, very strong; #2 BANDITA (6/5): Has run just once, and it was in January of 2023. It was an electric performance, to be sure, and if she’s ready to run, she could easily win, but these are too many “ifs” to take given her likely price; #1 BENEDETTA (10-1): Had every right to need her last-out effort given that it was her first start since September. Her prior connections ran her in some tough spots a season ago, and she was second behind the classy Dreamfyre in the Grade 3 Sorrento at Del Mar.

R4

Hue
Turf Rocket
Beach Cruiser

#5 HUE (3-1): Has run in two off-the-turf races to date and has a pedigree saying grass is absolutely what she wants. Her last-out win was a sharp effort, and while she faces fellow winners for the first time, it’s not like there are any monsters here; #7 TURF ROCKET (5-1): Stayed in an off-the-turf race less than two weeks ago and ran reasonably well to be third that day. She gets back on turf and cuts back to a sprint, both of which should help her as she searches for her first win since March; #1 BEACH CRUISER (10-1): Runs for a tag for the first time, and that could be the class drop she wants. The field she ran against last time out was a very tough one, and I’m expecting a step forward at a bit of a price.

R5

Macaw
Salacious
Ramesses

#7 MACAW (5/2): Takes a monstrous class drop in his first start for Linda Rice. His last-out effort was a clunker, but that came for a claiming tag five times higher than the one he runs for today. There also isn’t much other early speed in here, and I think this one will be very tough to run down; #4 SALACIOUS (4-1): Was stuck wide in a race out of the Wilson chute last time out, and that’s not a recipe for success. He’s another that takes a significant drop, and the better draw second off the bench could yield a better result; #9 RAMESSES (5-1): Ships up for Saffie Joseph, who has done very, very well at the Spa so far this summer. The outside draw is far from ideal, but the recent uptick in his workouts shows he could be sitting on a big effort.

R6

Mighty Atlas (MTO)
Let’s Go Big Blue
Agent Creed

#7 LET’S GO BIG BLUE (4-1): Has never run a bad race here and exits a decent second in a race several of these runners come out of. That day’s winner was much the best and isn’t in this spot. Given his consistency here, I think this gelding owned by former Giants head coach Bill Parcells is the one to beat; #8 AGENT CREED (5-1): Runs against state-breds for the first time since last year, and he did fairly well in those races. This is his second start off a brief freshening, and he has enough tactical speed to sit an ideal stalking trip just off the pace; #6 BETTRLUCKYTHANGOOD (9/2): May have been compromised by some trouble last time out, when he was fourth after back-to-back wins downstate. He’d benefit from a battle up front, and he might be good enough to win this with the clean trip he didn’t get a few weeks ago.

R7

Final Turn entry (MTO)
Dripping Gold
Freedom Trail

#7 DRIPPING GOLD (6-1): Hasn’t won in a while but gets Frankie Dettori and has shown ample tactical speed in the past. This race seems light on that elsewhere, and he ran well to be fourth at this distance two starts ago over Aqueduct’s similarly-configured turf course; #4 FREEDOM TRAIL (7/2): Makes his first start since November and ran in some big races a season ago. He chased the likes of Integration and Mo Stash, and he’s a major player in here provided he’s ready to run; #8 MONDEGO (5-1): May prefer the turf course at Belmont, as he hasn’t won since his last outing there more than a year ago. However, he also looks like the main speed in here and exits a stakes-quality optional claiming event going a bit longer several weeks ago.

R8

Donegal Surges
Bank Frenzy
Timeout

#9 DONEGAL SURGES (3-1): Was a best-of-the-rest second in the Commentator last time out and drops into first-level allowance company here. He’s allowed to run on Lasix, which is another plus, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., hops aboard for Hall of Fame conditioner Todd Pletcher; #4 BANK FRENZY (6-1): Has a lot of early speed and runs for a barn that’s definitely heated up over the last week or two. His lone two-turn start saw him race well clear throughout and win by five lengths. I don’t think he’ll get that type of trip here, but he does hit me as the one they’ll have to catch; #10 TIMEOUT (5/2): Ran third in the Curlin last month and comes back into the allowance ranks here. He’s certainly got potential to improve, but I haven’t been overly impressed, figures-wise, and he’ll likely need to fire a career-best shot against a field that came up pretty tough for the level.

R9

Manama Gold (MTO)
She Feels Pretty
Spaliday

#7 SHE FEELS PRETTY (2-1): Didn’t kick on in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks, but that distance was probably a bit too far. She hits me as a miler, and the distance of the Grade 2 Lake Placid should be far more suitable. A return to the form we saw as a 2-year-old would make her a formidable favorite; #5 SPALIDAY (12-1): Won an ungraded stakes race last time out and gets Frankie Dettori in this spot. She’s yet to run a truly bad race, and there seems to be enough pace signed on to give this one-run closer a chance at a big piece of this; #9 PROCTOR STREET (8-1): Is another deep closer, and she’s making just her third career start here. Most recently, she rallied from last to take her first try against winners, and I think there’s a chance she’s still got more room to improve given her relative inexperience.

R10

Power Squeeze
Candied
Chatalas

#3 POWER SQUEEZE (9/2): Is a filly I’ve respected for quite a while, and her form looks much better if you draw a line through the Kentucky Oaks. That was contested over a muddy track she clearly hated. Her pedigree says the 10-furlong distance of the Grade 1 Alabama hits her right between the eyes, and her likely price provides some value; #7 CANDIED (7/5): Is a logical favorite after her second-place finish in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks behind Thorpedo Anna. I’m not 100% sure this distance is quite what she wants, but she’s got enough tactical speed to sit close to the pace and get first run turning for home; #2 CHATALAS (8-1): Ships in after a score in the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks and hits me as the main speed. Her pedigree says she should be able to stretch out, and there’s always a chance a frontrunner gets comfortable up top and forgets to stop.

R11

Yo Daddy
Who’s the King
Smile Mon

#3 YO DADDY (3-1): Has run second a lot lately, but one of those efforts was at this route and saw him earn some big figures. Blinkers go on this Linda Rice trainee, which hint that he’ll be up a bit closer in this spot, and he’s got the ability to break through; #4 WHO’S THE KING (6-1): Disappointed as the 9/5 favorite last time out, but he didn’t have a great trip that day and the final margin of defeat may be inflated as a result. Cutting back to a mile makes a lot of sense, and we may get some value here thanks to an excusable last-out clunker; #1 SMILE MON (12-1): Has legitimate stamina questions, but we know inside speed is very, very good out of the Wilson chute. He’s shown plenty of zip in his prior outings, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he holds on for a share at a price.

R12

Beautiful Thief
Heart of the Night
Naughty Destiny

#5 BEAUTIFUL THIEF (8/5): Hit the front in her unveiling back in June, which came in a race several runners in here exit, but faded to finish fourth. She contested a fast pace that day, and I’m anticipating her being much sharper at second asking for a barn that’s due to start turning second-place finishes into wins; #3 HEART OF THE NIGHT (2-1): Has hit the board twice at this route, including a third-place finish last month. She’s got the ability to win, but I’m concerned that she’s never once passed a horse in a race’s late stages. Given the 0-for-6 record, this seems like a “now or never” spot; #6 NAUGHTY DESTINY (6-1): Tried stakes company last time out and returns to the maiden ranks, which means she can run with Lasix. Her two-back effort saw her run a decent third downstate, and she may not need to move forward much to have a say in the outcome.