SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, And Bankroll For August 21st, 2024

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,852

If you’re a fan of racing at Saratoga, you owe plenty to the Whitney family. As prominent as they’ve been over the years, much of their best work has been behind the scenes, supporting backstretch workers and providing valuable resources to the backbone of the racing industry.

John Hendrickson, Marylou Whitney’s husband, passed away suddenly earlier this week. He was just 59 years old. In addition to his other contributions to the industry, he was the chairman of the board of the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame, an organization where I proudly serve as an annual voter.

This industry has plenty of people who have probably sprained their shoulders patting themselves on the back. I should know, given that I’ve gotten a year-plus of clout out of picking Lord Miles in the Wood. On a serious note, though, John and Marylou gave back selflessly when they didn’t have to, and racing’s much, much better for it.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: My action was cancelled when the Bolton Landing was moved off the turf.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I have two strong opinions pretty close to one another, and I’ll lean on them both. I’ll have $20 win tickets on #3 ICE ROAD in the fifth and #2 RUNNIN’ RAY in the seventh, and I’ll have a $2 Pick Three singling both that uses #1 BRYANT AND COOPER, #4 PLAYFUL LASS, #6 NATIONAL ARCHIVE, #8 MARVELOUS MADISON, and #9 LOOKIN TO ROCK.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Runnin’ Ray, Race 7
Longshot: Street Rod, Race 8

R1

Vintage Vino
Protective
Brown entry

#5 VINTAGE VINO (7/2): Closed with a rush to be second beaten less than a length last time out in a race several rivals also exit. That race’s pace was far from fast, and he was one of only a few doing any real running late. If this stays on turf, I think he’s the one to beat; #4 PROTECTIVE (8/5): May have been entered here in the event this race comes off the turf. He ran in a few big spots earlier this season, but had no excuses when back against maidens last time out and is approaching “now or never” territory; BROWN ENTRY (5/2): Some may prefer #1 FACTOR ANALYSIS, but I like #1A TAKE YOUR SEATS more. He had no shot last time out given the glacially-slow pace in front of him. He gets both blinkers and Flavien Prat here, and I think he could move forward (although the likely price still hits me as a bit too short).

R2

Sacrosanct
Bold Fortune
Joker On Fire

#9 SACROSANCT (7/2): Debuts for Brad Cox after hammering for $260,000 at a 2-year-old sale this past spring. Thats a big number considering sire Honest Mischief’s modest $6,500 stud fee, and the steady stream of solid workouts indicates he’s ready to run; #7 BOLD FORTUNE (4-1): Makes his first start for George Weaver and is a full brother to Walk With Me, a first-out winner that added a stakes placing later in her campaign. He’s another with a few good works, and Dylan Davis is riding as well as anyone in the jockey’s room; #8 JOKER ON FIRE (5-1): Has an experience edge over most of this field and showed a bit of speed in his unveiling. He’s worked well twice since then and has every right to step forward at second asking.

R3

Kuchar (MTO)
Foreign Relations
Cathkin Peak

#3 FOREIGN RELATIONS (5/2): Sure looks like the lone early speed in the John’s Call, and given the way that usually works in turf marathons, that’s a very powerful asset. He’s got plenty of back class, having won last year’s Grade 3 Louisville at Churchill Downs, and I think he’s a legitimate wire-to-wire threat; #6 CATHKIN PEAK (2-1): Was claimed by Mike Maker last time out, and this barn has a record of turning around older horses whose careers have sputtered a bit. He has races from 2022 and 2023 that would absolutely make him a major player in here, provided he finds that form; #5 WINNING SPIRIT (12-1): May have needed his U.S. debut given the layoff of almost 10 months that preceded it. Form in Italy and Germany isn’t quite as impressive as races run elsewhere in Europe, but he’s shown he can go long on the turf and he’s certainly better than what he showed last time out.

R4

Jacobson entry
Accidental Hero
Roman Empire

JACOBSON ENTRY (2-1): I’m high on #1 SIX PERCENT, who clearly detested the Wilson chute last time out (many handicappers can relate). He comes back to a route where he thumped $32,000 claimers two back, and there sure seems to be plenty of speed signed on to set things up for his late kick; #5 ACCIDENTAL HERO (8/5): Didn’t have a great start last time out and was one-paced behind a winner that went early and never came back to the field. He adds blinkers and has enough early speed to sit close and get first run turning for home; #7 ROMAN EMPIRE (10-1): Ships up from Parx, which gives me some pause because Parx form doesn’t always travel to NYRA tracks. However, this is a sharp barn that doesn’t ship for the sake of shipping, and former Parx stalwart Kendrick Carmouche being in the irons is noteworthy.

R5

Ice Road
More Vino
Midnight Express

#3 ICE ROAD (6-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, and I usually hate betting horses like this unless I have a very good reason. That good reason, however, comes in the form of a switch to Luis Saez and a favorable draw coming out of the Wilson chute against what hits me as an underwhelming favorite; #5 MORE VINO (9/5): Will likely be a very heavy chalk, and it’s possible he steamrolls this group, but I’ve got some doubts. His two races to date aren’t THAT fast, he’s a 3-year-old going against older horses, and while these are aggressive connections, a $400,000 auction purchase running for a $16,000 tag in his third career start doesn’t exactly exude confidence at a very short price; #8 MIDNIGHT EXPRESS (8-1): Does not draw well in this event but is one of only a few horses that’s shown any interest in passing others late. His second last time out at this level was fine, and if there’s a pace meltdown, he’s the one who stands to benefit.

R6

Cha Cha Wren (MTO)
Playful Lass
Marvelous Madison

#4 PLAYFUL LASS (10-1): Made a big middle move in her debut, which came in an off-the-turf race last month, and I think she’ll be a factor here at a price. Her dam was stakes-placed going long on the turf, we know she’s got some dirt form, and Luis Saez rides back for Mike Maker; #8 MARVELOUS MADISON (4-1): Is one of two Chad Brown debutantes in here, and despite being a bigger price, this is the one I prefer. Her workouts are a bit quicker, and her stakes-placed dam has thrown five winners to date, including a few stakes runners; #1 BRYANT AND COOPER (3-1): Is the Brown runner that will likely attract attention. She’s a full sister to stakes winner Marvelous Maude and Flavien Prat sees fit to ride, but the rail draw makes me a bit nervous and she hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire in the mornings.

R7

Runnin’ Ray
Complete Agenda
St Andrews

#2 RUNNIN’ RAY (7/2): Has clearly had his issues over the years given all the layoff lines, but his usual race would make him very tough in here. His effort two back at Churchill was very good, as he ran second behind a stakes-caliber winner. The class drop should help him, and the 7/2 morning line hits me as an overlay on a horse I’m singling in multi-race exotics; #8 COMPLETE AGENDA (5-1): Was put up after a lengthy inquiry last time out, and while he did check, I don’t think he was the best horse that day. He’s got enough back form that tells me he can run well here, but I’m curious about the drop in class off of a win over starter allowance foes. These connections probably could’ve found a similar starter allowance spot, so why risk losing the horse?; #6 ST ANDREWS (6-1): Probably went a bit too far last time, and the slight cutback in distance should help him. There’s some speed in this race, and his best chance is probably laying back and making one big late run.

R8

On the Hill (MTO)
Street Rod
Twisted Filigree

#3 STREET ROD (12-1): Has run just twice to date and has been on the shelf since January, but his last-out effort saw him beat maidens in an open race at Gulfstream Park’s championship meet. He goes against winners for the first time, but this is a state-bred race, which means the waters aren’t quite as deep, and the price is certainly right; #4 TWISTED FILIGREE (5-1): Ran very well to be a close-up second last time out in his first start since June of 2023. He gets Lasix for the first time in this spot, he’ll likely be prominent from the jump, and he’ll have every chance to improve second off the bench; #9 BIG PRANKSTER (7/2): Is the morning line favorite and isn’t completely illogical, but he may need to step up here. His best races have come on dirt, not turf, and if this stays on its intended surface, the morning line price hits me as an underlay.

R9

Tapwrits Temper (MTO)
Shoot the Waves
Salvation

#2 SHOOT THE WAVES (8-1): Lost all chance at the start in his debut and has a major chance to improve at second asking going two turns. He’s bred to want every bit of this distance, and he adds both blinkers and Luis Saez, which may signal an intent to be on or near the lead from the jump; #8 SALVATION (10-1): Debuts for Linda Rice, whose first-time starters often need a race. However, he’s bred to love the turf, as his female family includes a third dam that threw Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner New Money Honey; #7 VAMONOS VAMONOS (8-1): Was a distant fourth in an off-the-turf race last time and may get his desired surface here. Frankie Dettori rides back, and this colt ran a bit wide out of the Wilson chute, which is rarely a winning trip.

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