BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,966.75

If you’re a believer in betting on the best story, you’ll get a chance to put your money on one right away Friday. The opener is a 2-year-old race, and the very first horse in the program is Alyeska. She’s owned by Marylou Whitney Stables, who also bred this daughter of Vekoma, and she runs just a few days after the sudden, unexpected passing of Marylou’s husband, John Hendrickson.

Given some strong recent works and a top-class pedigree, I think Alyeska is live, and I’ve picked her second in the pick box. It wouldn’t be surprising if she takes plenty of sentimental money, and if she wins, that instantly becomes one of the best feel-good stories of the meet.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: A decision made by the stewards went my way, though I feel terrible for those who had Camera in yesterday’s seventh because she was almost certainly the best horse. Having said that, Headline Numbers got put up, and $31 in post-scratch bets returned $130.75 ($63 from the first double, $29 from the second double, and $38.75 from a Pick Three).

FRIDAY’S PLAY: Lone speed is very dangerous in turf marathons, and for that reason, I need to bet #6 BREES in the third. In addition to a $22 win bet, I’ll have $6 exactas using him on top of #1 BE LIKE CLINT and #8 HARRY HOOD and $3 “saver” exactas with those two on top of Brees.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Transactional, Race 8
Longshot: Rodriguez entry, Race 11

R1

Stunner
Alyeska
Ice Cream Boat

#8 STUNNER (5/2): Has been working up a storm ahead of her debut and draws a cushy outside post in the Friday opener. She fetched $190,000 at auction last year, and it sure seems like trainer Brad Cox has a good one on his hands here; #1 ALYESKA (9/2): Comes in off of a pair of very impressive four-furlong drills, and while she’s bred to possibly want a bit longer than this distance, she’s flashed plenty of potential. Given the Marylou Whitney silks and the recent passing of John Hendrickson, if this one wins, there won’t be many dry eyes in the house; #4 ICE CREAM BOAT (9/2): Is a half-sister to Grade 1-winning 2-year-old Chocolate Gelato and has been working steadily for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. I’m not crazy about Pletcher running two in here, but this one’s bred to be precocious and may be well-meant.

R2

Just Music
Punch the Clock
Enigmatic

#3 JUST MUSIC (5/2): Ran well to be second going two turns last time out and cuts back to the Wilson chute here. She was third in a surprisingly-strong off-the-turf race at this route two back, and she’s part of a strong one-two punch for trainer Linda Rice; #5 PUNCH THE CLOCK (8-1): Wired the field in her debut two back before trying turf last time. She’s got plenty of early speed, which is dangerous at this route, and Tyler Gaffalione sees fit to ride back; #7 ENIGMATIC (7/2): Is another cutting back for the Rice barn, but this one hits me as an underlay. She sat a dream trip up top setting slow fractions last time and was a distant third, five lengths behind my top pick. Maybe the cutback helps, but she shouldn’t be alone up front here.

R3

Paddington (MTO)
Brees
Be Like Clint

#6 BREES (4-1): Sure looks like the main early speed in this three-turn turf marathon, and that’s a very, very good place to be. He ran well to be second at this distance downstate, and Jose Lezcano sees fit to ride back here; #1 BE LIKE CLINT (3-1): Was a close-up third at this route last month and isn’t an awful favorite. I do, however, think he’s a tad better on all-weather, and I’m not sure he’ll get quite as much pace to run at. Add in that closers on the rail need a fair bit to go right, and I think he may be vulnerable; #8 HARRY HOOD (9/2): Has plenty of back class and missed by just a nose in this year’s Grade 2 Pan American at Gulfstream. His last few have been a bit disappointing, though, and I’m wondering if he prefers firmer footing than he’s likely to get here.

R4

Castle Chaos
Rocket Can
Power Seeker

#3 CASTLE CHAOS (3-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but ran well to be fourth in the Grade 1 Met Mile at this route two back and returns to it after a rough trip last time out. He’s got enough speed to sit close early and pounce, and while this isn’t a bad field, he’s been running against much better most of the past year; #1 ROCKET CAN (5/2): Was ninth in last year’s Kentucky Derby and exits a stakes-quality optional claimer last month. He’s definitely good enough to win, but the post position is a question mark since he’s not exactly a “speed” horse; #4 POWER SEEKER (4-1): Wired a field of optional claimers earlier this month and figures to be prominent early. I doubt he’ll sit such a perfect trip for the second start in a row, but he draws well and may be tough to run down if he gets comfortable.

R5

Roses for Debra
Dontlookbackatall
Future Is Now

#4 ROSES FOR DEBRA (6/5): Was probably ridden a bit too overconfidently in the Grade 2 Intercontinental, where she missed by a head as an odds-on favorite. She comes back in the Smart N Fancy as half of a very strong 1-2 punch for trainer Christophe Clement, and this is the one Irad Ortiz, Jr., chose to ride; #1 DONTLOOKBACKATALL (4-1): Doesn’t have a single bad race on her sheet and comes in on a three-race win streak. One of those victories was a score in the Grade 3 Caress, and she’s a major player (especially if her highly-regarded stablemate misfires); #7 FUTURE IS NOW (3-1): Upset my top pick in the Intercontinental and did all the dirty work in the Caress before settling for third. She’s got plenty of early speed and once again figures to be the one they’ll have to catch.

R6

Going for Glory
Inflammabelle
Focus Pocus

#6 GOING FOR GLORY (6-1): Is a tepid top pick in a mess of a maiden claimer solely because she’s the only horse that’s shown any interest in passing others late. She was second in a similar spot earlier this month and may have plenty of, to steal a phrase from a friend, “inexpensive velocity” in front of her; #2 INFLAMMABELLE (6-1): Didn’t break well in a turf experiment last time out and returns to the dirt here. Her two-back effort wasn’t bad, and I think she’s got more gate speed than her rivals, including one that hits me as a vulnerable favorite; #5 FOCUS POCUS (9/5): Drops in for a tag, but while she has excuses for her most recent effort, the two races before that saw her sit perfect trips and be reeled in. Perhaps the drop wakes her up, but this drop within the state-bred ranks isn’t as big as it is against open company, and I think she’ll be overbet.

R7

Yellow (MTO)
Rare Art
Leaner and Meaner

#8 RARE ART (3-1): Showed plenty in her debut, when she rallied from way back to finish third at a price. This barn has had a bunch of seconds and thirds at this stand, but improvement is logical here at second asking and she presents a great chance for the outfit to get off the duck; #10 LEANER AND MEANER (7/2): Debuts for Chad Brown and merits respect despite a less-than-ideal post position. This daughter of Munnings has a very strong female family, with a dam being a full to stakes winner Thrilled and a half to Grade 3-placed turfer Beside Herself; #4 WILD AND FREE (10-1): Is one of two Todd Pletcher trainees and has a right to improve after a wide trip in her debut. Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back, and she draws a more friendly post that could give her more of a shot.

R8

Transactional
Brigade Commander
Barnstorming

#12 TRANSACTIONAL (2-1): Takes a big drop into a restricted claimer for powerhouse connections and looms large as the one to beat. He likely needed his last-out clunker, which was his first try since late-2022, and I’m expecting a step forward against much weaker opposition than what he ran against last month; #3 BRIGADE COMMANDER (6-1): Is another dropping in class, and he’s going back to the turf for the first time since January. His 2023 races on the grass were solid, and he’s got plenty of tactical speed, which should help him; #7 BARNSTORMING (15-1): Crossed the wire first at a big price last time out, but was disqualified for interference near the wire. His form looks much better if you solely consider his turf races, though, so it’s not like the big effort was a total shock. A similar sort of effort gives him a big chance at a piece of this, and he may be a longshot once again.

R9

Forrest City
Edified
Classify

#3 FORREST CITY (6-1): Is one of several exiting a common race on July 27th, but unlike a few others, he had an excuse. That was his first try since November, and I’m banking on this Bill Mott trainee taking a step forward second off the bench in this wide-open sprint; #8 EDIFIED (5-1): Is one of only a few in here that’s shown an ability to close, and that should help him. He made up quite a bit of ground to be third last time out, and he’ll go third off the bench for Steve Asmussen here; #5 CLASSIFY (6-1): Ships up from Florida for Saffie Joseph, Jr., who’s enjoyed a lot of success at this stand. A mile was probably just a bit too far for him last time, and he’s been working well at Palm Meadows ahead of his trip to upstate New York.

R10

Idiomatic
Randomized
Raging Sea

#4 IDIOMATIC (6/5): Is a head away from winning eight in a row, and the defending champion of her division again looks imposing in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign. She’s gotten a few weird trips of late, but she’s been working up a storm across the street and is the one to beat if she fires her best shot; #5 RANDOMIZED (8/5): Upset my top pick in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps, although it’s fair to say she sat a dream trip on the lead through moderate fractions. I’m expecting my top pick to show some more interest and keep her honest, but if that one takes back, it’s not inconceivable to think this one proves tough to pass; #3 RAGING SEA (9/2): Has won four of her last five and exits a score in the Grade 2 Shuvee that was pretty impressive. This is a tougher field, no doubt, but she’s won three graded stakes in the past nine months and may be coming into career-best form.

R11

Rodriguez entry
Turriga
Delightful Dixie

RODRIGUEZ ENTRY (12-1): Both parts provide value in the right circumstances. If this stays on turf, #1 QUICK POWER NAP has a right to improve after losing all chance at the gate last time out. The addition of Flavien Prat is a big plus in what hits me as a wide-open turf sprint; #9 TURRIGA (6-1): Is another that’s had some gate issues in her last few starts. She was fifth in what hit me as a stronger race for the level last time out, and a repeat of her two-back effort could give her a big shot here; #5 DELIGHTFUL DIXIE (6-1): Won two in a row at Monmouth before a misfire up here last month. Here, she’s reunited with two-back winning rider Paco Lopez, and if she channels her Jersey form, I think she’s another that’s in with a chance (in a race where I’d advise multi-race exotics players to spread, spread, and spread some more).

R12

Strife
DeVaux entry
Silvology

#4 STRIFE (7/2): Was second behind a much-the-best winner here last time out and seems to run into a weaker group in the Friday finale. Joel Rosario rides back for Christophe Clement, and any sort of step forward from what she’s shown to date in her three-start career would make her strictly the one to beat; DEVAUX ENTRY (9/2): I prefer #1 TIME STONE, who hasn’t run since March but seems to be training well ahead of her return. That last-out effort was a solid second at Tampa Bay Downs, and she’s a contender if she’s ready to fire; #12 SILVOLOGY (12-1): Draws an absolutely terrible post but has a pedigree I simply cannot ignore. This daughter of Blame has run on dirt twice, but her bottom-side breeding says it’s turf she wants, and she did show plenty when making up a lot of ground in her unveiling two starts ago.