BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,926.75

Saturday is Travers Day at Saratoga. I usually reserve this space for some sort of important message, and this year is no different.

I want to extend shoutouts to everyone who participated in Friday’s dunk tank festivities to benefit the Backstretch Employee Service Team. That organization does outstanding work to benefit employees who constitute the backbone of the horse racing industry. BEST offers healthcare clinics, as well as counseling, translation, and transportation services for those who need them, and seeing so many people support yesterday’s fundraiser was really, really cool.

To learn more, visit their website at bestbackstretch.org. If you have a good Travers Day and you’re looking for a way to give back, a donation would certainly check that box.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Brees lost all chance at the start of the third, and I dropped $40.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: Most of my action comes in the 12th, the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens. I respect #8 BOOK’EM DANNO, but #5 PRINCE OF MONACO is a big lean for me. I’ll have a $30 win bet on that one, and I’ll single him to end $5 doubles that start with #4 BABY YODA and #8 CAGLIOSTRO in the 11th (the Grade 1 Forego). In addition, I’ll have $10 win bets on Baby Yoda and fifth-race top pick #9 TWENTY SIX BLACK.

TOTAL WAGERED: $60.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Prince of Monaco, Race 12
Longshot: Baby Yoda, Race 11

R1

Geopolitics
Calling an Audible
Steal the Rhythm

#8 GEOPOLITICS (4/5): Is truly in a now-or-never situation in the Saturday opener, where she’ll almost certainly be a heavy favorite for the sixth time in as many starts. The addition of blinkers, however, has been known to move “pack animals” forward, and that combined with a cushy outside draw against a soft group means I think she’s tough to go against; #1 CALLING AN AUDIBLE (5-1): Has been off four months but has been running well at this level for quite a while. The rider change to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a big one, and she’s the only one in here that’s shown she can pass others late; #4 STEAL THE RHYTHM (10-1): Debuts for H. James Bond, whose first-time starters usually need a race. However, there are some solid works on her tab, and it’s not like she’d need to be a superhorse to grab a check in her unveiling.

R2

Spirit Prince
Green Light
Main Beach

#4 SPIRIT PRINCE (9/2): Has yet to run a bad race through seven lifetime starts and was last seen running a close-up third in the Kent Stakes at Delaware Park. That was going significantly longer than this event, and the cutback in distance should suit this stalking-type (who goes out for connections that have already won several races this week); #5 GREEN LIGHT (2-1): Drops out of stakes company after two minor awards in ungraded races in Kentucky. His three-back effort was smashing, and while I don’t think he beat much that day over a quirky turf course, the renewed application of Lasix should certainly move him forward; #6 MAIN BEACH (8-1): Came flying late last time out in his first try against winners and was beaten just a length by a solid horse in West Hollywood. Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back for Chad Brown, and he may have some room to improve given his relative inexperience.

R3

Strapped (MTO)
Topic Changer
Front Man

#3 TOPIC CHANGER (7/2): Stretches back out to a three-turn distance third off the bench for Mike Maker, whose barn is on fire at the moment. He’s no stranger to going long thanks to several races over fences, and while others in this field may have distance limitations, the 11-furlong trip should pose no problem for this 5-year-old gelding; #5 FRONT MAN (5-1): Hasn’t won in more than a year, but he’s one I think will enjoy the longer journey. His pedigree is all-distance, and while he’s shown a solid turn of foot several times, he’s also shown an ability to be a grinding-type, too, which could help him; #1 LORD FLINTSHIRE (3-1): Is impossible to endorse on top, with just one win in 24 career outings. However, he’s proven to be a fun horse to own, with eight seconds and three thirds, and one of those seconds came going even longer than this route last June at Laurel.

R4

Can’t Hush This
Jace’s Road
Strava

#6 CAN’T HUSH THIS (5/2): Gets a tepid nod in a race out of the Wilson chute, largely due to a strong effort last time out. He was second at Ellis Park last time out, and while Ellis form doesn’t always travel, that track’s one-mile route is run in a similar style to Saratoga’s, and that might help him; #5 JACE’S ROAD (7/2): Makes his first start since the 2023 Kentucky Derby, where he was outclassed by the likes of Mage and Two Phil’s. The long layoff is obviously a concern, but Brad Cox does well with horses coming back off of extended breaks, and first-time Lasix is a big equipment change; #1 STRAVA (6-1): Ran too poorly to be true on the Kentucky Derby undercard and gets Lasix in his return to the optional claiming ranks. The rail draw may not be ideal, but three of his five wins are at this distance and he does have some tactical speed.

R5

Excellent Timing (MTO)
Twenty Six Black
Mischievous Angel

#9 TWENTY SIX BLACK (8-1): Has run well at this route multiple times and comes in off of a sharp, last-to-first score against first-level allowance foes. This may be a tougher group, but he was a close-up second behind Mansa Musa two back, and that one returned to run second in the Grade 3 Quick Call; #7 MISCHIEVOUS ANGEL (9/2): Has two wins and a second in three turf sprints to date and was most recently third in a stakes-caliber optional claimer during Belmont week. This barn hasn’t gotten going at this stand, but Flavien Prat rides back when he likely had several options, and I think this one’s a contender; LIVE OAK ENTRY (7/5): Neither #1 BIZ BIZ BUZZ or #1A BRING THEBAND HOME would be stunning, but the morning line prices are definitely underlays. The former hasn’t won in more than a year, the latter has two turf races over a vastly different turf course than this one, and at this entry’s likely price, I’m going elsewhere and searching for value.

R6

Hands of Time
Thunder Roll
States’ Rights

#4 HANDS OF TIME (5/2): Ran well in his debut, when he made up some ground despite a wide trip. He’s worked consistently since then, and I’m expecting an improved performance at second asking for patient connections; #8 THUNDER ROLL (6-1): Showed some speed in his debut going shorter on dirt, but going long on turf is what his pedigree says he wants. He gets wheeled back pretty quickly after his first outing, which is atypical of this outfit, but it sure seems like a vote of confidence given the route that’s involved; #12 STATES’ RIGHTS (3-1): Needs some luck to run here but merits a long look if he does. He closed into a very slow pace last time out and was beaten just a head. If he runs here, he should get more pace to run at, and he’d be a major player despite a less-than-ideal draw.

R7

Tip Top Thomas
C K Wonder
Rookie Card

#3 TIP TOP THOMAS (3-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher, who’s enlisted Irad Ortiz, Jr., to ride. He comes in off of back-to-back bullet drills and is bred to be a good one. This son of Violence sold for $160,000 last October and is kin to six winners, including multiple stakes winner Gray Attempt; #8 C K WONDER (4-1): Dueled through solid fractions in his debut and faded to fourth. That was over a muddy, sealed track he may not have cared for, though, and the experience edge he has over most of this group could be a big factor; #2 ROOKIE CARD (9/2): Sold for $165,000 at the OBS sale this year, a big number considering sire Adios Charlie’s $3,000 stud fee. He comes in off of a series of excellent workouts, though trainer Danny Gargan’s barn has been ice-cold all summer long to this point.

R8

Bob John Ray (MTO)
Rhetorical
Clear Conscience

#5 RHETORICAL (2-1): Debuted with a bang last month, when he overcame a tough outside post and won as much the best. It’s hard to debut going two turns, but he did it with aplomb and may be a special horse on the rise in this first-level allowance; #4 CLEAR CONSCIENCE (5-1): Gets a big trainer change to Mark Casse after back-to-back seconds at this level. He’s beaten several of today’s opponents in those races, and in addition to the trainer change, a jockey switch has also been made, to Jose Ortiz; #8 SLAPINTHEFACE (6-1): Came up less than a length short despite having to close into a pretty moderate pace last time out. It’s one of several tough breaks for this barn, which is winless at the meet as of this writing but has collected several minor awards.

R9

Measured Time
Silver Knott
Far Bridge

#2 MEASURED TIME (7/5): Cruised home to win the Grade 1 Manhattan in his first stateside start and looms large in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer. The added distance is a question mark, but his pedigree says he should be able to handle it, and if he does, he’s strictly the one to beat; #4 SILVER KNOTT (1-1): Steps up into the Grade 1 ranks after three wins against Grade 2 foes. Most recently, he went wire-to-wire in the Bowling Green last month, and he and jockey Flavien Prat figure to be prominent early; #3 FAR BRIDGE (8-1): Flopped as the favorite in the Grade 2 United Nations at Monmouth, but he had a wide draw that day and may have had an excuse. He won going a mile and a quarter last year, and he’s another horse with a pedigree that says more distance shouldn’t be an issue. 

R10

Scylla
Vahva
Accede

#5 SCYLLA (7/2): Cuts back to seven furlongs for the Grade 1 Ballerina, and I think this distance will fit her like a glove. She most recently ran second behind the classy Adare Manor in the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch at Del Mar, which came after two graded stakes scores in Kentucky; #3 VAHVA (1-1): Has run exceptionally well this season in recording two stakes wins, including the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff. If this race was at Churchill Downs, she’d be a strong lean, but while she could win this, she’s 0-for-2 at Saratoga to this point and her price will be very, very short; #7 ACCEDE (8-1): Won a Grade 2 two back and was a close-up second in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss behind a perfect-trip winner. She’s shown an ability to stalk and pounce, which is a trip that could lead to a strong performance at a bit of a price.

R11

Baby Yoda
Cagliostro
Mullikin

#4 BABY YODA (8-1): Had a very wide trip in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt, so I don’t have an issue tossing that race. Tyler Gaffalione is now aboard, and while 3-1 was a bit tough to swallow last time, he’ll be a much bigger price in the Grade 1 Forego, and I think he’s far more likely to repeat his two-back effort here than he was last time out; #8 CAGLIOSTRO (9/2): Cut back to one turn last time out and won the Hanshin at Churchill Downs. The outside draw is definitely a plus, and despite a sheet full of two-turn routes, I think it’s possible he’s been a one-turn horse all along; #6 MULLIKIN (8/5): Has reeled off three wins in a row, including one in the Grade 2 John Nerud downstate. That race was a fast one, but Aqueduct’s main track played very, very fast late in its meet. He could win, but I don’t think he towers over this bunch, and the likely price hits me as an underlay.

R12

Prince of Monaco
Book’em Danno
Little Ni

#5 PRINCE OF MONACO (4-1): Was a hard-luck second last time out in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens, where he was left with a lot to do and came up a half-length short. Since then, he’s been working, well, like a Bob Baffert trainee, and while the field for the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens is a very good one, I think a clean trip will make this one the one to beat; #8 BOOK’EM DANNO (7/2): Has never been worse than second in eight lifetime starts and is 6-for-6 going seven furlongs or shorter. One of those wins came in the Woody Stephens, where he got the jump on my top pick. The jockey change is a bit puzzling, but it’s not like Javier Castellano is an insane downgrade, either; #11 LITTLE NI (10-1): Makes his first start for Mark Casse after giving my second choice all he could handle in a prep at Monmouth Park. The outside draw is a very big plus, Jose Ortiz winds up in the irons, and we’re likely to get a square price given the big field and some of the heavy hitters that are set to go postward.

R13

Sierra Leone
Dornoch
Fierceness

#2 SIERRA LEONE (7/2): Has made his own trouble multiple times, but he’s a closer in a renewal of the Grade 1 Travers that seems full of early speed. The stretchout to 10 furlongs seems like exactly what he wants, and while he’s far from an easy horse to ride, I think we’ll get a very bettable price on a runner getting exactly what he wants, and that makes him my top pick; #7 DORNOCH (5/2): Has shown an immense amount of fight in two Grade 1 wins. He looked beaten in both the Belmont and the Haskell, but he fended off Mindframe both times. He may need to tap into that resolve again here, as he’ll be tested from the jump by several frontrunners; #8 FIERCENESS (3-1): Is among the top horses in training on his best day, and we’ve seen several dazzling wins in high-level races. Most recently, he topped Sierra Leone in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. However, he’s yet to string two “A races” together, and the way he came up empty in the Kentucky Derby makes me wonder if he wants this distance. Still, we know he loves Saratoga, and the outside draw certainly doesn’t hurt him.

R14

Treaty Obligation
Six Kings
Houlton

#8 TREATY OBLIGATION (7/2): Drops in for a tag in the Saturday finale, and I’m willing to forgive the last-out effort. Do that, and you’re left with a runner that’s been competitive against much, much better horses. Flavien Prat rides for Chad Brown, and while the post isn’t ideal, his best race crushes these; #6 SIX KINGS (10-1): Exits a failed turf experiment and comes back to dirt in his second start for Joe Sharp. He showed some tactical speed two and three back, and I’m expecting Tyler Gaffalione to be aggressive out of the gate; #4 HOULTON (6-1): Had to deal with a sloppy, sealed track last time out, and for the second time in his career, he didn’t handle such a surface very well. He ran well when second at this route last August, and he’s another that should be on or near the lead early.