BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,866.75

I’m going to be traveling most of Sunday, so I won’t see some of the card. Even if I was around, though, I likely wouldn’t be playing much because the card seems quite chalky.

This brings up something I hear every year. Many complain when public handicappers pick favorites. I agree with that to a point. If all you’re doing is picking the first, second, and third choices in order most of the time, there’s no skill involved and no reason for an audience to pay attention to you. However, if you give out big prices solely to give out big prices when your true top three is wildly different, that hits me as a bit dishonest (especially when there isn’t much room to expound on why you’re doing it).

There’s a happy medium that I hope my content hits. I treat the Pink Sheet’s pick box as “handicapping 101,” meant moreso for novice horseplayers who go to the track a few times a year, and the addition of ROI’s (published every Wednesday) was a great idea for those interested in tracking that. This section, covering how to convert strong opinions into sound bets, is “handicapping 201.” Judging by the ROI of both sections this meet, I’m doing pretty well.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Prince of Monaco was, like several others I needed on the card, a tough-luck second. None of the auxiliary stuff connected, either, and I dropped $60.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I think the most value on the card comes in the seventh. I’ll have $3 exactas using #6 SHE TAKES CASH and #9 LAKESIDE GETAWAY on top of those two, #1 BUSY MORNING, and #7 ISLAND FOX. I’ll use my top two horses on their own in an additional $3 exacta box, and I’ll also have a $10 win bet on She Takes Cash (who hits me as a significant overlay at or near the 15-1 morning line price).

TOTAL WAGERED: $34.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Bellacose, Race 1
Longshot: She Takes Cash, Race 7

R1

Bellacose
Accelerating
Carmen’s Candy Jar

#1 BELLACOSE (2-1): Was one of the most visually-impressive winners of the summer when she romped by 10 lengths at first asking early in the meet. I’m not sure what she beat that day, but she couldn’t have looked much better doing it, and I think she’s the one to beat in the Seeking the Ante; #4 ACCELERATING (8/5): Didn’t have it easy in her unveiling, when she had company up top early on. However, she put her rivals away and drew off for a trainer whose horses often get better with experience; #5 CARMEN’S CANDY JAR (2-1): Was probably left with too much to do in the Schuylerville, when she was fourth behind the next-out Adirondack winner. She returns to the state-bred ranks here, and she may be the one they have to hold off late in an opener short on quantity, but long on quality.

R2

Swift Magic
More Therapy
Sounds Like a Plan

#3 SWIFT MAGIC (7/2): Is one of only a few in here with experience, and it came in a race rained off the turf. That day’s runner-up was an impressive winner earlier this week, and this one’s pedigree says he’ll improve with both experience and a switch to the lawn; #6 MORE THERAPY (9/2): Debuts for a barn that finally got off the duck Friday but has run second and third quite a bit. Firsters from this outfit often need a race, but he’s bred up and down for the grass and sports an ultra-impressive turf drill across the street back on July 26th; #12 SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN (6-1): Needs a couple of scratches to draw in but merits respect if he gets to run. He’s kin to a pair of stakes horses, and his dam is a half-sister to Well Armed, who romped in the Dubai World Cup back in his heyday.

R3

Elysian Meadows
Dr. Kraft
Silver Satin

#2 ELYSIAN MEADOWS (4-1): Goes back to the dirt and gets some class relief in this wide-open optional claimer. He hasn’t won since late last year, but he’s spent most of 2024 going against tougher company and has gotten some eventful trips in a few of those races; #4 DR. KRAFT (3-1): Cuts back to seven furlongs after four straight one-mile events. He’s been in front in the stretch in three of them with just one win, and that makes me think this distance will hit him right between the eyes; #5 SILVER SATIN (9/2): Cleared his first-level allowance condition last time out and may be on the improve. I don’t think he beat a ton in that race, but he’s also never been worse than third in five lifetime starts, and one of those outings was a win at this distance downstate.

R4

Spirit of St Louis
City Man
Dakota Gold

#4 SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (1/2): Will be a heavy favorite in the West Point, and rightfully so. He’s reeled off five straight wins since a near-miss in this race last year, and he’s beaten many of his opponents here in some of those events. His usual effort will make him tough to beat, albeit at a very short price; #2 CITY MAN (3-1): Is the logical alternative to my top pick and clearly loves this turf course. Last year’s West Point winner has three wins and two seconds in six local outings and may have needed his last-out effort, which was his first try since late-October; #1 DAKOTA GOLD (6-1): Has danced in some big dances during his career but has run up against my top pick in each of his last four tries. He’s likely to sit back and make one big late run, and he’d benefit from some competition up front early on.

R5

Pandagate
Doc Sullivan
B D Saints

#4 PANDAGATE (4/5): Returned with a win in the New York Derby and had every right to need that effort. It was his first start since a trip to Dubai for the UAE Derby, which was won by eventual Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Forever Young, and any sort of step forward would make him a very formidable favorite in the Albany; #6 DOC SULLIVAN (8/5): Gave my top pick a test last time out and finished less than a length behind that rival. I don’t think two turns is his best trip, but he did win the Mike Lee emphatically two starts ago and figures to be prominent from the jump; #3 B D SAINTS (15-1): Finds trouble with aplomb, but he comes back to the dirt and I think that might be his preferred surface. The Mike Maker barn is on fire as of this writing, and given a fair amount of speed signed on, I think this one could clunk up for a piece of it at a big price.

R6

Kay Cup (MTO)
Charlotte’s Heart
Tahila

#4 CHARLOTTE’S HEART (3-1): Hammered for $725,000 last summer and has a bottom-side pedigree that hints she’ll love the turf. She’s a half to fan favorite Casa Creed, and her second dam, Wild Heart Dancing, won several graded stakes races on the lawn. Add in a strong last-out gate drill, and I think this first-time starter is very well-meant; #7 TAHILA (2-1): Had some traffic in her debut, where she still managed to run third. I’m not sure what she ran against that day, but she’s certainly got a right to improve, and while I think her pedigree says she wants two turns, she’s not a bad favorite; #1 SERIOUS LADY (12-1): Didn’t do much running in her debut, but that was in an off-the-turf event for a barn whose debuting runners sometimes need a race to get going. This is the surface she’s meant to run on, Tyler Gaffalione sees fit to ride back, and I think she could be a player and provide value underneath.

R7

Lakeside Getaway
She Takes Cash
Island Fox

#9 LAKESIDE GETAWAY (7/2): Ran very, very well last time out to be second behind Awesome Czech, who came back to win a stakes race at next asking. There’s other speed in here, so she may not have it easy, but I think she’s got a considerable back class edge and is strictly the one to beat; #6 SHE TAKES CASH (15-1): Ran off mid-race last time on the dirt and comes back to her preferred surface here. This is also her first try against state-bred competition since November, which should help, and the morning line price hits me as a significant overlay on a horse that has several reasons to improve; #7 ISLAND FOX (9/2): Took to the turf well last time out, edging a runner that came back to win earlier this season. This is her first try against winners, but another step forward puts her right there (especially given a race shape that could favor her closing kick).

R8

My Mane Squeeze
Dolomite
Caldwell Luvs Gold

#8 MY MANE SQUEEZE (8/5): Gets significant class relief after chasing the likes of Thorpedo Anna and Ways and Means in Grade 1 races. She was most recently third in the Test, and while this hits me as a bit longer than she truly wants, she’s thumped many of these rivals and looms large in the Fleet Indian; #4 DOLOMITE (5-1): Came back running in her 2024 debut and stretches back out to two turns here. Her lone try at the distance was a third-place finish in last year’s Grade 2 Demoiselle. Logical development second off the bench would make her a major player in here; #9 CALDWELL LUVS GOLD (6-1): Was an impressive winner last time out in the New York Oaks at Finger Lakes, a race where I wasn’t sure she wanted two turns. She answered that question well, and she’s a player in here, too (despite the fact that this race came up very, very strong for a $200,000 state-bred event).

R9

Mo Plex
Bostontonian
Under Who’s Radar

#10 MO PLEX (5/2): Wired the field in the Grade 3 Sanford earlier this summer and draws well in the Funny Cide. The outside post is a big, big plus, and while I don’t think the Sanford field was super, this seems like a slightly weaker spot for a horse that’s already shown quality and has every right to keep getting better; #6 BOSTONTONIAN (5-1): Showed some fight in his debut against open company at Churchill Downs, where he dueled through fast fractions and had enough left to get the money. Frankie Dettori sees fit to ride, which is always a plus, and I think he’s live at a bit of a price; #7 UNDER WHO’S RADAR (3-1): Never looked like a loser in his debut, where he was well clear throughout. The two-back work hints that he’s still doing well, though I do think he needs to take another step forward in here off of an effort where I’m not quite sure what he beat.

R10

Silver Skillet
Spinning Colors
Marvelous Maude

#5 SILVER SKILLET (8/5): Has won her two starts this season by a combined total of 11 lengths and exits a powerhouse performance downstate in a similar spot. She does give some weight to the rest of this field, but she’s also 2-for-2 over this turf course and looks every bit like the one to beat in the Yaddo; #1 SPINNING COLORS (8-1): Steps up into stakes competition off of a very strong optional claiming score in her 2024 debut. She’s had some long layoffs, but when she’s right, she’s shown she’s got plenty of talent, and I think she and John Velazquez could sit an ideal stalking trip from the rail; #9 MARVELOUS MAUDE (8-1): Is a one-run closer that’s accomplished plenty in 14 lifetime starts and may be an inflated price here. She definitely wants some speed to chase, and I think she gets that setup here. Add in the Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz, Jr., tag team, and you’ve got a value proposition in the exotics.

R11

Autumn
Capital Spending
In All My Dreams

#8 AUTUMN (5-1): Has made a habit of collecting minor awards but sure looks like the main speed in a wide-open turf route lacking much of it elsewhere. Her last two tries were both very solid, and if she gets comfortable early, today may be graduation day after several near-misses; #2 CAPITAL SPENDING (7/2): Was a fast-closing fourth in her first two-turn try last time out and ran very well to be second going shorter two back. I think the likely price is a bit of an underlay (especially since she’s now chased my top pick twice), but she’ll definitely benefit if another runner goes with that top pick early on; #9 IN ALL MY DREAMS (8-1): Was left with far too much to do last time out and adds blinkers in her third career outing. Her debut saw her run a close-up second after rating behind a pretty slow pace, and a return to that form gives her a sizable chance in the Sunday nightcap.