SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, And Bankroll For August 28th, 2024

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,850.75

It’s been a bit since I wrote about a problem in hopes someone in the industry who has the power to do something about it reads my content. Wednesday, unfortunately, is one of those days.

If you get your past performances from TwinSpires or Brisnet, their forms do not include the complete race histories for some steeplechase horses that have raced at certain overseas venues. If you’re handicapping races like today’s opener by using these materials, that means you need to cross-check multiple different data sources to get all of the relevant information.

It’s pretty ridiculous to have to jump through these hoops, and this is not the first time it’s happened at the meet. Brisnet PP’s for Jonathan Sheppard favorite Zarak the Brave, for instance, were incomplete every time he was entered throughout the summer. I only found that out early because an old friend/a heck of a writer and editor reached out and let me know what I saw wasn’t the full story.

Perhaps it’s overly idealistic of me to believe this, but anything that’s a barrier to players having access to what they need should not exist. Brisnet, please fix this by the time next summer’s Saratoga meet rolls around.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: I scratched out of most of my action, but longshot She Takes Cash gave me a big thrill in the seventh, when she hit the top of the stretch in front. Unfortunately, she faded to fourth and I dropped $16.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: We’ll head to the fourth, which I think is very heavy on early speed. I want a closer, and I’m betting #6 GIROOVIN. I’ll have a $30 win ticket on that one, and he’ll start $5 doubles that end with #8 ENGLISH CASTLE and #11 FILM ACADEMY in the fifth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Thankfully, Race 6
Longshot: Giroovin, Race 4

R1

Hold Hard
Kitten Around
Little Trilby

#7 HOLD HARD (3-1): Comes into the Michael Walsh off of back-to-back victories, and the most recent win has aged well. That race has produced three next-out winners, and it sure seems like this one is coming into his own as a 5-year-old; #5 KITTEN AROUND (6-1): Topped winners in a handicap event last month at Colonial, and that day’s third-place finisher won at next asking. Keri Brion has enjoyed plenty of success at this stand, and I think her barn is live here; #6 LITTLE TRILBY (5-1): Makes his U.S. debut after an easy score in Ireland where he won by 11 lengths. I’m not sure what he beat that day, but he looked pretty sharp doing it, and he gets weight from several rivals in his first stateside start.

R2

Reserve Currency
Fromanothamutha
Sun Thunder

#6 RESERVE CURRENCY (3-1): Has won two in a row and three of his last four, including a last-out score at this route. He won as much the best that day, and when Mike Maker gets horses going the right way, they tend to stay there; #2 FROMANOTHAMUTHA (9/2): Was second in an off-the-turf event at this level and route a few weeks ago and looks like the main speed in here. While he’s not exactly a “win-type,” with four wins and nine seconds, he generally runs the same race every time and may be the one to catch; #4 SUN THUNDER (2-1): Ran in last year’s Kentucky Derby, but has spent most of this year burning money in first-level allowance races like this one. His best race gives him a chance to break through, I suppose, but the likely price on this 1-for-13 runner hits me as a considerable underlay.

R3

Big Ego
Concorde Spirit
Stormy’s Dreaming

#3 BIG EGO (7/2): Steps up in class for Linda Rice first off the claim, and she’s known to be aggressive with new acquisitions she likes. He was last seen running second at this route in June, and of the horses that have gone this far before, he’s the only one that’s shown any early speed; #8 CONCORDE SPIRIT (9/2): Stretches out after two sprints, and while the post position isn’t ideal, his pedigree says he’ll love the added ground. If Junior Alvarado can work out a trip, he may be the one to hold off late; #2 STORMY’S DREAMING (8-1): Is another stretching out, but Flavien Prat shows up to ride for a small barn, and that’s always encouraging. His plodding style hints the extra quarter-mile may suit him, and he’ll likely offer some value at a bit of a price.

R4

Giroovin
Poppy’s Pride
Cees Get Degrees

#6 GIROOVIN (8-1): Is a pace play for me as a closer in a race full of horses that seem determined to make the lead early on. The faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be, and I think this race has “meltdown” written all over it; #9 POPPY’S PRIDE (4-1): Has been running against better groups than this one and exits a third-place finish against starter allowance foes. That day’s winner is a pretty nice sprinter, and of the front-running types, this is the one I most prefer; #2 CEES GET DEGREES (7/2): Is one of the most well-traveled horses in racing, with 34 starts and eight wins in tracks across eight states to this point. He drops back to the $32,000 claiming level here, and his last start for this tag was a wire-to-wire win at Aqueduct in February.

R5

English Castle
Film Academy
Outtawaterbury

#8 ENGLISH CASTLE (5/2): Goes first off the claim for Saffie Joseph and also makes his first start following racing’s ultimate equipment change. His first try as a gelding comes against a group that seems less than stellar for the level, and logical improvement would make him strictly the one to beat; #11 FILM ACADEMY (9/2): Needs a scratch to run but merits respect if he draws in off the AE list. This would be his first start for a tag, and while he’s had some gate issues in most of his races, it’s not like he’s performed terribly after those starts; #6 OUTTAWATERBURY (10-1): Had no pace to run at last time out in his first start at this level. He was still a decent fourth that day (only beaten a nose for third), and he’d benefit from some of his rivals jockeying for position early on.

R6

Thankfully
Episode
Miss C Banker

#11 THANKFULLY (2-1): Needs a scratch to run but figures to be a major player if she draws in. Her debut in Florida was a solid race. That came on dirt, but her bottom-side pedigree hints that it’s turf she wants, and any sort of a move forward would make her a handful; #5 EPISODE (6-1): May finally get to run on turf in her fifth lifetime start. Her two tries on synthetic weren’t bad, and her record looks much better if you toss her two-back clunker (where absolutely nothing went right); #7 MISS C BANKER (3-1): May be favored if my top pick doesn’t draw in, but while she ran a hard-luck second at this level and route last time out, I have some doubts. She had a perfect trip on an easy lead that day and couldn’t get the job done, and I just don’t like betting horses like this at short prices off of ideal journeys that didn’t lead to wins.

R7

Scoring Chance
Athena Beach
Maggie T

#2 SCORING CHANCE (8-1): Has a record that looks far better if you draw a line through her December 29th clunker (after which she was off for several months). Do that and you have a horse with two wins in dirt sprints who attracts Flavien Prat and should get an ideal setup as a closer in a race with lots of early speed; #5 ATHENA BEACH (3-1): Ran well to be second last time out in an optional claimer won by a next-out stakes winner. I thought Jose Gomez rode her very well that day, and he should have her on or near the lead early again here; #1 MAGGIE T (8-1): Never looked like a loser in her last race, which she won by six lengths in wire-to-wire fashion. Yes, she sat a perfect trip that day, but she has a track record of using her tactical speed to get into ideal spots, and for that reason, the rail draw may be an asset in this wide-open event.

R8

Virgin Colada
Reining Flowers
Totally Justified

#2 VIRGIN COLADA (2-1): Came flying late to take her debut last month and has plenty to like in the P.G. Johnson. This Chad Brown-trained daughter of More Than Ready retains Flavien Prat, and that day’s third-place finisher earned her diploma last week; #9 REINING FLOWERS (6-1): Shares some similarities with my top pick in that she rallied in a paceless race earlier this summer. This barn hasn’t sent out many runners this season, but it’s won at an alarming rate and this filly seems well-meant; #7 TOTALLY JUSTIFIED (6-1): Went 0-for-2 in Kentucky to start her career but is bred for turf and finally gets it. She’s a daughter of Justify and a Galileo mare, which is turf top and bottom, and this is a barn that doesn’t ship for frequent flyer miles.

R9

Majulu
Splashy
War Terminatrix

#10 MAJULU (9/2): Dueled throughout in her first turf start before settling for second. That day’s third-place finisher was quite a bit behind the top two, and while this barn has just one winner from 19 starts as of this writing, it also has six seconds, which means horses are running well, just not winning; #4 SPLASHY (7/2): Drops in for a tag and has some back races that look solid. That drop isn’t quite as massive when we’re talking about state-bred races (since it’s a smaller pool of eligible runners), but it’s still a drop, and perhaps that wakes this filly up; #7 WAR TERMINATRIX (20-1): Cuts back to a sprint after a failed two-turn experiment last time out. Her turf sprint effort three back at Monmouth against open maiden claimers wasn’t bad. It’s not a small “if,” since that’s probably her best-ever race, but if she can channel that form, she could absolutely be a factor here at a big price.

Leave a comment