BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $2,013.75

Moving to California 11 years ago this October was the right move 100 times out of 100. It allowed me to build a career that I’m very proud of, and I wound up meeting a woman I’m marrying next summer.

However, the best part of trips east is reconnecting with people I don’t see nearly enough. I’ve been lucky to run into a bunch of people from various different parts of my life the past few days, sometimes in hilarious fashion (hi, Jay!). That’s the stuff that’ll have me smiling all the way home on Monday.

To those I’ve run into: Thank you. To those I haven’t: I’m up here one more day, and I’m an easy guy to find!

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Brightwork was my biggest win bet of the season, and she thankfully delivered in the Prioress. A $100 investment returned $355.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to come out firing with a play in the opener. #8 HURRICANE NELSON is going to be a short price, and I’ll attempt to extract value with $20 exactas using him atop longshots #5 WAJDA and #6 ESCONDIDO. I’ll also have $5 “saver” exactas using those two on top of Hurricane Nelson.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Adventurous Spirit, Race 6
Longshot: Escondido, Race 1

R1

Hurricane Nelson
Escondido
Wajda

#8 HURRICANE NELSON (7/5): Is approaching “now or never” status in his sixth start as a maiden. He’s run second four times in five outings, including twice at this stand, and if he doesn’t get it done here from a cushy outside draw in a race without much other early speed, I’ll have trouble endorsing him in any race moving forward; #6 ESCONDIDO (15-1): Ran pretty well to be fourth in his debut, which came in a loaded maiden race with several next-out winners. He probably lost all chance at the break last time out, and that clunker could mean an inflated price this time around; #5 WAJDA (12-1): Probably needed his last-out effort given the long layoff and didn’t break well that day. This barn does tremendous with with horses second off the bench, and this price is very attractive given the powerhouse connections.

R2

Margot’s Angel (MTO)
Love Tempo
Opulent Restraint

#2 LOVE TEMPO (5/2): Has run well twice in as many starts to date and just missed last time out behind a big price. That particular race did not set up for his late-running style, and I think there may be some more pace signed on in this spot; #9 OPULENT RESTRAINT (2-1): Was another runner compromised by a slow early pace last time out. She was fourth as an odds-on favorite that day, and the third-place finisher came back to win at next asking. The likely price seems a bit short, but second-out improvement would give her a chance; #6 GOOD LONG CRY (4-1): Beat my second choice last time out and figures to be part of the pace once again. I can’t see her getting such an easy trip twice in a row, but she may be the one they have to run down turning for home.

R3

Printrack (MTO)
Yarrow
Determined Effort

#3 YARROW (5/2): Has had a few wide trips this summer and exits several races that proved pretty strong for the level. Some of his best races have come at this route of ground, and the likely race shape certainly sets up for a closer like this one; #6 DETERMINED EFFORT (7/2): Was an impressive winner in his lone start to date and could be a major player if he’s ready to go off the bench. That race was in December, so there’s a long layoff to consider, but that was one impressive move he made, and I can’t ignore him; #8 URBAN LEGEND (6-1): Ships up from Florida after a few starts at Gulfstream, and I like him the most of the likely frontrunners. He doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which is a big plus, and he could sit a stalking trip behind a hot pace.

R4

Cloud Forest
Unclecharliesgift
Smile Mon

#5 CLOUD FOREST (3-1): Hasn’t run since January but gets a tepid nod in a race out of the polarizing Wilson chute. He ran well at this route last summer, when he was beaten just a neck, and he seems like a pace factor in a race otherwise light on early zip; #4 UNCLECHARLIESGIFT (10-1): Stretches out to this route, which is a bit of an unknown, but he’s run reasonably well twice at this level this season and may be sitting on a strong race third off the bench. His pedigree says the trip shouldn’t be an issue, and the price is certainly attractive; #9 SMILE MON (9/2): Looks like the main speed and may be a threat to wire this group if he can clear the field early. That’s not a small “if,” to be sure, but he drops back down to what’s probably the right level and could be the one they’re chasing early.

R5

Market Alert
Charlie Five O
Critical Threat

#3 MARKET ALERT (4-1): Has had some pretty terrible trips of late but drops in class first off the claim for an astute barn. The rider switch to Manny Franco is a notable one, and I think there are several reasons to expect a significant step forward; #7 CHARLIE FIVE O (5-1): Sat a very strange trip last time out, which also came when this barn was ice-cold in the opening weeks of the meet. The outfit has since heated up a bit, and the presence of Flavien Prat is encouraging; #5 CRITICAL THREAT (6-1): Is another going first off the claim for Rob Falcone, who conditions my top pick, too. He’s run well here multiple times in the past, gets a massive jockey change to Irad Ortiz, Jr., and might be the best speed horse in the field.

R6

Adventurous Spirit
Guile
Get It To Matthew

#11 ADVENTUROUS SPIRIT (8/5): Drops in for a tag for very aggressive connections after several solid outings against maiden special weight foes. The lack of one of this barn’s first-call riders is a bit puzzling, but Ricardo Santana, Jr., has quietly put together a solid meet, so it’s not like that’s a disqualifying factor. If he’s right, he’s strictly the one to beat; #1 GUILE (6-1): Goes first off the claim for Mike Maker and comes back to the turf in this spot. He was very wide two starts ago at this level and route, and I think he moves forward considerably with a better trip; #9 GET IT TO MATTHEW (12-1): Is strictly a pedigree play in a race that seems lacking in proven form. This is a son of Mendelssohn and a Tapit mare, which means he should love the turf. He’s never tried it before, so that’s an unknown, but at his likely price, I think he offers value in the exotics.

R7

Quickick
All the Feels
Soothe

#1 QUICKICK (7/2): Debuted with a third-place finish at this distance (which isn’t an easy one for first-time starters to navigate). Blinkers go on at second asking, and while the rail draw isn’t ideal, I think there’s reason to expect a move forward; #4 ALL THE FEELS (8-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher and may offer surprising value given her pedigree. Her dam is a Grade 2-winning 2-year-old, and her second dam threw, among others, Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming; #9 SOOTHE (8-1): Debuts for Bill Mott and, given her turf-oriented, distance-heavy pedigree, may need a race or two to get going. However, her last two workouts are excellent and she draws well in this spot, so perhaps her raw talent is enough to get her there in a wide-open event.

R8

Classic Legacy (MTO)
Tidal Forces
Capture the Flag

#2 TIDAL FORCES (3-1): Ran his eyeballs out to be second in a similar spot back in July at a massive price (I remember vividly, because a win would’ve been VERY nice for me…). He might be a hair better on synthetic, but his recent turf efforts are sharp, and I think there’s plenty of speed in here for him to run at late; #10 CAPTURE THE FLAG (4-1): Won on turf two back before finishing second in a race rained off the grass last month. Turf seems to be his best game, and a repeat of the two-back effort would give him a chance for connections that always merit respect; #3 PAROS (7/2): Has won two in a row and goes to a new barn ahead of a significant class test. His win last time out was very sharp, as Jose Ortiz worked out a trip from a far-outside post. Brother Irad doesn’t have to deal with that post, but these are sharp opponents and the likely price hits me as a bit of an underlay.

R9

Cupid’s Heart
St. Benedicts Prep
Ringy Dingy

#6 CUPID’S HEART (5/2): Hasn’t run a bad one in nearly three years and exits a win over her primary rival downstate. She may have needed that race off of a pretty long layoff, so improvement could be coming going a distance where she’s recorded two wins and a second in three relevant starts; #1 ST. BENEDICTS PREP (3-1): Wore down a rival late to clear a first-level allowance condition last time out. That came in the mud, which she’s bred to handle, but she was only beaten less than a length by my top pick two starts ago, and she’s got the speed to use the inside draw as an asset; #4 RINGY DINGY (8-1): Is my one attempt at creativity in here, as I think she could be a factor at a bit of a price. She gets Lasix for the first time after three straight outings against graded stakes foes, and the cutback to this seven-furlong distance could be exactly what she wants.

R10

Set
Big Prankster
Russi

#7 SET (4-1): Started his career going 2-for-2, but drops into the state-bred optional claiming ranks after graded stakes company proved a bit too tough. His back class is substantial, and while I think he may want a bit longer than today’s distance, he doesn’t have to move forward much from his last two starts in order to beat these; #9 BIG PRANKSTER (12-1): Won an off-the-turf event last time out and figures to do his best running late. I didn’t like him much last time, but while this is a jump in class, it’s also not the strongest race for the level and he has a right to keep moving forward; #5 RUSSI (12-1): Has run well in every start since July of last year and is 2-for-2 at this route of ground. He showed some versatility last time out, when he rated a bit further back and came with a rally. On speed figures, he needs to improve in order to win, but I think he’s an exotics contender at a price.

R11

Film Star (MTO)
Running Bee
Pioneering Spirit

#5 RUNNING BEE (9/5): Has been running against much better horses most of this year and exits a sixth-place finish in the Grade 2 United Nations. That may have been a bit long for him, and he ran up against a few solid turf horses that day. His two-back Grade 3 Monmouth performance was sharp, and a repeat of that effort makes him a formidable favorite in the Bernard Baruch; #4 PIONEERING SPIRIT (6-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while but is another dropping in class. In this case, he was fourth in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer just eight days prior to this race. He may want a bit longer than today’s distance, but his best gives him a big chance; #1 FORT WASHINGTON (9/2): Dead-heated with my top pick two starts ago and didn’t have an easy trip in the United Nations. On speed figures, he fits, but he may ned a bit more pace than he’s likely to get here, and that gives me some pause.

R12

Arthur’s Ride
Disarm
Bright Future

#7 ARTHUR’S RIDE (4/5): Couldn’t have been much more impressive than he was in winning the Grade 1 Whitney. The Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup adds an extra furlong, but he’s won at this distance before and looks every bit like the one to beat; #4 DISARM (8-1): Was gaining ground late in the Whitney and ran probably the best race of his career at this route last summer, when he was second in the Grade 1 Travers behind Arcangelo. He’s got the Steve Asmussen work pattern I love to see (a sharp two-back drill followed by a maintenance move), and he’s a logical alternative; #3 BRIGHT FUTURE (10-1): Won this race a season ago, so you know he can win at this distance and surface. The question is, do we get the horse that got his nose down in this spot in 2023, or do we get the horse that never seemed interested in the Whitney?

R13

Burn Rubber
Wild Nugget
Irie Man

#10 BURN RUBBER (6-1): Is one of a few interesting first-time starters in a race with many experienced horses that, to put it kindly, have struggled at this level. He’s been working steadily for Linda Rice ahead of his unveiling, and if he runs to those works, he’ll have every chance in the Sunday nightcap; #12 WILD NUGGET (8-1): Draws a cushy outside post for his debut and ships up from Penn National to take on fellow New York-breds. His dam was a classy runner that won eight times and banked more than $277,000, and his workouts are consistent enough; #5 IRIE MAN (4-1): Didn’t get a great setup last time, when he rated behind a slow early pace and was left with too much to do. He has some back races that aren’t bad, and Flavien Prat riding back is definitely a positive.