BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,963.75

2024’s closing day has a new meaning for me. Fourteen months ago, I didn’t know if I’d ever be back doing this again. Getting my freelance horse racing work back has given me a new perspective fueled by gratitude.

As always, thanks to the folks at The Saratogian for having me back. If you think it’s easy producing three sports sections a day (The Saratogian, The Troy Record, and The Pink Sheet), try it sometime. In addition, thanks to Raketech, which hired me in November to run the Winners and Whiners website and allows me to produce content like this.

Finally, and most importantly, thank you to you, the reader. I’m incredibly fortunate to have the audience I have, and I’ll even include the few trolls who hate-read my stuff (pro tip, everyone: The opposite of love isn’t hate, it’s indifference). My website shattered traffic records this meet, and, as with everything else I’ve mentioned, I’m very grateful. Let’s finish with a bang!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: “They knew” about Montalcino, who took tons of late money in the opener and proved best. Hurricane Nelson tired to third, and I dropped $50.

MONDAY’S PLAY: We’ll finish 39 straight days of action in the seventh, where I need to bet #3 FRIEND OFTHE DEVIL after a nightmare trip in his debut. I’ll have a $50 win bet on that one, and I’ll have a $10 cold double starting with Friend Ofthe Devil and ending with #5 ARZAK in the eighth (the Harvey Pack).

TOTAL WAGERED: $60.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Friend Ofthe Devil, Race 7
Longshot: Studlydoright, Race 10

R1

Military Road
Elko County
Daily Grind

#4 MILITARY ROAD (1/2): Isn’t the easiest short-priced favorite to trust, but is a speed-figure standout in the closing day opener. It simply seems like he’s been running against much better, and I think they’ll have him to catch turning for home; #3 ELKO COUNTY (7/2): Was second in an off-the-turf race here not long ago and would benefit from any sort of battle up front. He’s been at this level quite a while, but he’s another that’s run in some strong races for the level; #5 DAILY GRIND (9/2): Gets a big rider switch to Luis Saez and has a right to improve for that reason. His connections thought enough of him to run in the Sir Barton earlier this year, and honestly, someone has to run third.

R2

Disco Star
Marvelous Madison
Dancing Dakotah

#11 DISCO STAR (9/5): Ran well to be second in her debut and has a right to take a step forward here, provided she draws in off the AE list. She rallied from ninth that day, and closing kicks like that aren’t often seen in debuting horses still figuring things out; #2 MARVELOUS MADISON (8/5): Debuts for Chad Brown and has an all-turf pedigree. This daughter of Caravaggio is out of a productive mare that’s already thrown five winners out of six foals to race; #5 DANCING DAKOTAH (10-1): Was one-paced in her July unveiling but adds blinkers at second asking for a high-percentage outfit. Her most recent work wasn’t bad, and I think there’s reason to be optimistic about a horse that figures to be a price.

R3

Concerti
Spiritual Lady
Roman Goddess

#1 CONCERTI (5/2): Takes a big drop in class for aggressive connections after fading in her last three starts (two on turf). I think coming back to dirt will help, as will waters that certainly look much more shallow than the ones she’s been swimming in lately; #7 SPIRITUAL LADY (6-1): Was claimed after her last-out score by a barn that doesn’t reach in for a tag very often. I’m not sure what she beat that day, but she’s got plenty of tactical speed and could be on the upswing in the back half of her 3-year-old season; #4 ROMAN GODDESS (8/5): Is a class-dropper and will likely take plenty of betting money, but she has no recent wins on her sheet and doesn’t seem to have moved forward following a claim back in February. Returning to this level may help her, but I think she’ll be overbet.

R4

Heard On Thestreet
Stormquist
Paschal Moon

#2 HEARD ON THESTREET (5/2): Was claimed by Linda Rice last time out, and while that barn’s gone a bit cold to end the meet, this gelding was a strong second at this level last time out and merits respect. Irad Ortiz, Jr., hops aboard, and a repeat of the last-out effort may be enough to beat these; #8 STORMQUIST (4-1): Dueled through very fast fractions in his last start and may not need to go so quickly early to get positioning here. He hasn’t won in quite a while, but his springtime efforts downstate weren’t bad at all; #4 PASCHAL MOON (8-1): Came with a bit of a rally last time out and would benefit from any sort of speed duel up front. He’s one of only a few in here that’s shown an interest in passing others late, and he could very well clunk up for a piece of it.

R5

Ichiban (MTO)
Prerequisite
Promiseher America

#2 PREREQUISITE (8/5): Has been off over a year but comes back for a trainer who’s as good as anyone at getting comebackers ready to go. She won last year’s Grade 2 Wonder Again and was second in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks before going to the sidelines, and this seems like a soft spot for her 2024 debut; #6 PROMISEHER AMERICA (8-1): Comes back to the turf here, and her only race on the grass to date wasn’t bad. She was a close-up second two starts ago at Laurel, and her tactical speed could prove to be an asset; #5 DREAMING OF MO (10-1): Didn’t have a great trip in her local debut after a few solid races at Churchill Downs. She cuts back to what could be a more friendly distance, and channeling the Kentucky form would give her a chance at a price.

R6

One Vision
Omaha Pistol
Hit the Post

#9 ONE VISION (4-1): Debuted with a solid second last time out for a barn whose first-time starters usually need a race to get going. That day’s winner, Pay the Juice, has some potential, and this one could be sitting on a move forward in a race against many inexperienced rivals; #3 OMAHA PISTOL (3-1): Debuts for Jeremiah Englehart and has a work on August 11th that jumps off the page. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride, and while seven furlongs is a tough first-out distance, this gelding may be good enough to do so; #1 HIT THE POST (5-1): Has been working steadily here for a barn that’s enjoyed some success at this stand. Second dam Intangaroo was a top-notch mare with three Grade 1 wins to her credit, and sire Kantharos has been known to produce precocious offspring.

R7

Friend Ofthe Devil
Rock Star Rebel
Daytona Gold

#3 FRIEND OFTHE DEVIL (9/2): Is a betback after a nightmare trip in his debut last month. He got crushed at the start before suddenly rushing up to contest the pace. Naturally, he faded late. Any reasonable trip, combined with the seasoning he gained in that unveiling, should move him forward considerably; #11 ROCK STAR REBEL (5/2): Is another that didn’t break well last time out. He was one-paced that day, but Dylan Davis is set to ride back if he draws in off the AE list, and that hints at some confidence here; #8 DAYTONA GOLD (3-1): Hammered for $150,000 earlier this season and has been working steadily for trainer Ken McPeek. This outfit doesn’t usually rush its first-time starters, but there’s reason to believe he may have some potential.

R8

Arzak
Surveillance
Souper Quest

#5 ARZAK (7/5): Has been running against much, much better horses and gets significant class relief in the Harvey Pack. Most recently, he was third behind the talented Nothing Better at Monmouth, and he was second behind a record-setting performance from Cogburn in the Grade 1 Jaipur; #3 SURVEILLANCE (10-1): Has thrived up here this summer, with two wins in as many starts. Most recently, he won the off-the-turf Troy, but his two-back turf effort was a very good one, and we may get a price on a horse that clearly loves the Spa; #6 SOUPER QUEST (3-1): Sure looks like the speed of the speed and has yet to run a bad race in eight lifetime outings. He’s never been worse than third, and his wire-to-wire win here in July was a sharp effort.

R9

It’s Hot in Here
Dea Matrona
Sizzle

#4 IT’S HOT IN HERE (5/2) and #6 DEA MATRONA (7/2): It makes sense to discuss them both together, as they’re both coming from the Chad Brown barn and ran 1-2 separated by just a neck last time out. Either could win, but I slightly prefer the former, especially given that that one made up a bit more ground last time; #12 SIZZLE (6-1): Needs some luck to draw in, but I’ve liked her a few times this meet and think she could be a factor here. She’s never run a bad one to date and should have some pace to chase if she’s able to give it a go here.

R10

Ferocious
Studlydoright
Chancer McPatrick

#2 FEROCIOUS (8/5): Looked like a monster in his debut, when he cruised home clear by nearly eight lengths and earned massive speed figures across the board. This barn isn’t a high-percentage one with debuting runners, so it’s telling that this one was ready to go. A similar performance will make this $1.3 million purchase an absolute handful in the Grade 1 Hopeful; #6 STUDLYDORIGHT (12-1): Won the Tremont two back and was a fast-closing second in the Grade 3 Sanford. That day’s winner came back to overcome a strange trip and win again, and given the abundance of early zip, he could get an ideal setup at a price; #8 CHANCER MCPATRICK (5/2): Rallied from last to first to take his debut and is another that could benefit from the race shape. That maiden race hasn’t come back the strongest, though, and the fractions certainly indicated a meltdown was probable. He could win, but as second-time starters go, I prefer my top pick, and as closers go, I prefer my second choice (who’ll likely be a much bigger price).

R11

Child of the Moon
Venencia
Sugar Hi

#11 CHILD OF THE MOON (3-1): Came back running off a long layoff when she was second at this level back in July. She had no pace to run at that day but still showed the talent that won her a stakes race in her native France, and I’m expecting a step forward here for powerhouse connections; #8 VENENCIA (4-1): Comes off a long layoff for Chad Brown and tried an ambitious spot last year when seventh in the Wonder Again. The works seem slow, but this isn’t a barn that asks a ton of its horses in the mornings, and perhaps she’s ready to go off the bench; #2 SUGAR HI (10-1): Has struggled since a first-out score here last summer but is bred to love the lawn and finally gets it. This daughter of Twirling Candy has a right to improve on the grass, and I’ll gladly throw her into exotics given her likely price.

R12

Lucky and Gorgeous
Coach Sessa
Dance On Air

#3 LUCKY AND GORGEOUS (6-1): Had a very unlucky trip in her last turf start two back. She probably lost all chance at the break that day. Her three-back effort was solid, and channeling that could make her tough in the final race of the meet; #12 COACH SESSA (3-1): Hasn’t run since October and drops in class first off the bench. She’ll get a bunch of changes in here, assuming she draws in, as she’s making her first start for Rob Atras and will add Lasix; #6 DANCE ON AIR (7/2): Goes back to the turf, and her lone grass race to date has aged pretty well. The top two finishers are both solid runners, and while she’ll need to move forward, this will be just her fourth lifetime start, so perhaps she’s still got some potential to do that.