BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $170

Thursday’s bankroll section must be a “Plan B.” The horse I’m most excited to bet comes in the finale, and that’s probably too late for my editors and the folks putting The Pink Sheet together (on top of also assembling the daily sports sections for both The Saratogian and The Troy Record).

You can check out my analysis of that race below and bet with the knowledge that my top pick in there will be a single for me. Thankfully, there’s a way for me to bet on a strong opinion just a bit earlier in the program, and that’s what I’m doing.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Sterling Silver looked home and cooled out at the quarter pole in the Critical Eye, but Bernietakescharge repelled the challenge. I dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I won’t play the finale, but I will play the Grand Slam, which concludes in the ninth. I really like #4 MAJOR DUDE in there, and this is part of how I’ll try to extract value. My $1 ticket starts in the sixth and goes as follows: 4,7 with 1,2,5 with 2,4,8 with 4. In addition, I’ll also have a $20 win bet on Major Dude, too.

TOTAL WAGERED: $38.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Smartest, Race 10
Longshot: Limes Don’t Lie, Race 6

R1

Mythical
Blinging It Back
Mercilesanihilator

#3 MYTHICAL (8/5): Stomped an overmatched field in his April debut at Gulfstream, and I loved the way he finished. He covered the last sixteenth of a mile in less than six seconds after dictating terms from the jump. If he steps forward here in the Tremont, I think he’ll be tough to beat; #2 BLINGING IT BACK (3-1): Started horribly in his unveiling but nearly overcame it, covering a ton of ground in the stretch to be beaten less than two lengths. Mark Casse’s horses sometimes need a race or two to get going, and he stands to improve considerably with a better break; #4 MERCILESANIHILATOR (4-1): Topped my second choice last time out after dueling for most of the race and re-rallying after being headed. Larry Rivelli doesn’t ship here for frequent flyer miles, and at a minimum, this one figures to be prominent early.

R2

Fire’s Out
Hideaway
Key Actress

#5 FIRE’S OUT (9/2): Ran very well in her return off a long layoff, closing to be beaten a half-length despite there not being much of an early pace to chase. Her pedigree says she’ll stretch out (she’s a full sister to Dreamfyre, who won a graded stakes going long on the lawn), and Rosario riding back is a plus; #4 HIDEAWAY (3-1): Comes back to the maiden ranks after a failed try in the Grade 2 Edgewood. This is a significant class drop, to be sure, and her two efforts prior to the graded stakes experiment make her a logical favorite with a chance to graduate; #7 KEY ACTRESS (6-1): Faded to fourth after setting the pace in her debut and has every right to move forward at second asking. Her two published works since that race are very good, and Bill Mott’s horses tend to improve with experience.

R3

Sassy C W
Vernon Valley
Gena B

#3 SASSY C W (8/5): Received the rare “rocket ship” trip note in her debut, when she sprinted six lengths clear at the first call and was never threatened. She hammered for $375,000 at auction earlier this year despite a modest pedigree, and this possible freak looks like strictly the one to beat in the Astoria (which, oddly, will be contested nowhere near Astoria this year…); #6 VERNON VALLEY (2-1): Didn’t break well in her unveiling downstate, but she overcame it and got the job done by nearly three lengths over a muddy track. Like her stablemate in the Tremont, she’s got every right to improve with a clean start, and I think the outside draw could help her relax; #2 GENA B (2-1): Battled throughout last month and was beaten a neck while beating that day’s third-place finisher by almost six lengths. This barn isn’t known for success with debuting runners, so that effort was noteworthy, and first-call rider Kendrick Carmouche returns to ride.

R4

Sarir (MTO)
Frances Stanley
Thiene

#2 FRANCES STANLEY (12-1): Made it two wins in a row in her first start off the claim for Bill Morey and gets a tepid nod at a price in this wide-open turf sprint. She’s relatively inexperienced, with just three starts to her credit, and I think she may have more room to improve than some of her opponents; #1 THIENE (8-1): Makes her American debut after 12 starts and four wins overseas, and she’ll race with Lasix for the first time. I love that angle, and she showed some talent in France a season ago. I’m just wondering if this is maybe a bit shorter than she wants to go; #4 TALES OF THE HEART (3-1): Rallied to finish second in her U.S. debut at Keeneland and had some trouble going around the turn. Her connections thought enough to run her in some tough spots in Europe last season, and it wouldn’t be stunning if she won, but her running style does lend itself to finding trouble, and she’s done that a few times. At her likely price, I’ll take a mild stand against her.

R5

Hello Beauty
Saratoga Snow
Nonna Lynne

#12 HELLO BEAUTY (3-1): Is one of several very interesting horses on the AE list for this one, so watch scratches very carefully. If she gets to run, she’ll do so against New York-breds for the first time after five outings against open company. Her last two races, in particular, were far from bad, and she could appreciate the drop in class; #11 SARATOGA SNOW (10-1): Is the first AE on the list and hasn’t run since October, but I think she merits respect at a price if she draws in. Her two turf efforts were far from bad, and the combination of tactical speed and top gate rider Paco Lopez is a notable one; #5 NONNA LYNNE (7/2): Is the runner in the main body of the field I prefer most. She hasn’t run since September, but she broke badly that day. She’s been working steadily for Chad Brown and adds Lasix for her 2025 debut.

R6

Limes Don’t Lie
Pure Beauty
Velvet Vortex

#4 LIMES DON’T LIE (8-1): Probably needed her 2025 unveiling, but she was good enough to win anyway. She chased the classy Quietside here last summer before going to the sidelines, and she could get an ideal race shape here with plenty of early speed to sit off of; #7 PURE BEAUTY (6-1): Was a distant fifth in the Grade 3 Gazelle back in April and gets back to what’s probably the right level. She cuts back to a mile, which should help her, and the return of Lasix could also get her back to her early-season form; #8 VELVET VORTEX (2-1): Would probably be my top pick with a better draw, but this is far from an advantageous post out of the Wilson chute. In addition to being challenged to save ground, both horses to her outside have tactical speed and may go early, too. She’s talented, but given the circumstances, I’ll try to beat her.

R7

Future Is Now
Pandora’s Gift
Twirling Queen

#2 FUTURE IS NOW (2-1): Won this race a season ago and seeks to retain her Grade 2 Intercontinental Championship (if you bet against a wrestling reference being in this section this week, you lose). She’s won five of her last six starts, and she beat several of these rivals last time out in the Grade 3 Giant’s Causeway at Keeneland, including…; #1 PANDORA’S GIFT (3-1): …who was beaten a nose that day. She’s got back class, and it wouldn’t be stunning to see her turn the tables given the narrow margin last time, but she also hasn’t won since May of last year, and I’m wondering if her best efforts are behind her; #5 TWIRLING QUEEN (8-1): Won five of seven a season ago and went to the sidelines after a December clunker at Gulfstream. However, she’s been training well, she won last year’s Coronation Cup at this route, and she’ll have a chance at a bit of a price if she’s ready to run.

R8

Willy D’s
Surface to Air
Film Star

#4 WILLY D’S (9/2): Took a big step forward last month, when he was a close-up second in a very fast race for the level at Churchill Downs. Mike Maker’s one of the best at finding new levels with high-priced claims, and if he keeps improving, he could have a big chance here beneath first-call rider Luis Saez; #2 SURFACE TO AIR (8-1): Hasn’t run since December, but has been training well at Monmouth and is a much different horse when running with Lasix. Draw lines through his efforts against stakes company, and you’re left with a sheet that includes five races where he crossed the wire first; #8 FILM STAR (7/2): Has never finished worse than third in five local starts and has won here twice, including an easy score in the off-the-turf Lure last August. He was second to a solid runner last time out at this level, and he may have been compromised by being wide turning for home.

R9

Yo Daddy (MTO)
Major Dude
Intellect

#4 MAJOR DUDE (7/2): Has been running against some top-class horses for most of this season and hits me as the one to beat in the Grade 3 Poker. He won the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale in December, contested the Grade 1 Pegasus Turf, and fell a nose short in the Grade 3 Canadian Turf. If he’s his usual self, I think he’ll be a handful; #2 INTELLECT (5-1): Might have needed his U.S. debut after a layoff of nearly a year, and he didn’t run terribly to be third that day. His European form from 2023 and early-2024 is solid, and he’s got every right to take a step forward second off the bench for powerhouse connections; #7 DEPICTION (10-1): Seems to find trouble with aplomb, but he’s got several speed figures that stack up reasonably well with this group, and he’ll be a big price. The faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be, and at least he’ll be going the right direction late.

R10

Smartest
Just So Pretty
Queens Fable

#9 SMARTEST (9/2): Ran a deceptively-big race in her unveiling, when she closed to be second in a race with zero early pace at Colonial Downs in July. She hasn’t raced since, but Graham Motion can get horses ready to go off the bench and the presence of Umberto Rispoli is notable; #10 JUST SO PRETTY (7/2): Is probably the main speed in the nightcap and comes into this one off of a tough beat at Keeneland. She could win if she gets loose, but she’s had ideal trips before and not gotten the job done, so we’re approaching “now or never” territory with this one; #1 QUEENS FABLE (5-1): May have needed her 2025 debut at Tampa, where she ran third in her first start since June. She’s been on the sidelines since March, but she adds blinkers for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz, Jr., hops aboard for the first time.