BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $132

Good Cheer figures to be one of the shortest-priced favorites of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival when she goes postward in Friday’s Grade 1 Acorn. She’s 7-for-7, exits a professional score in the Kentucky Oaks, and looks every bit like the best 3-year-old filly in the country.

The scary thing is, there’s a slight chance she’s not even the best 3-year-old filly in her barn. Immersive, last year’s Champion 2-Year-Old Filly after a campaign that included three Grade 1 wins, has returned to the work tab at Churchill Downs. She’s also owned by Godolphin and trained by Brad Cox, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her in some big spots down the road next to her ultra-talented stablemate.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Major Dude had every chance in the Poker and gave me a thrill, but he couldn’t get to Donegal Momentum. I dropped $38.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: We’ll focus on the seventh race, which houses my best bet of the day. That’s #7 LOUISE PROCTER, and she’ll be the key to a big day. In addition to a $30 win bet on her, I’ll have $5 doubles singling her, both starting in the sixth with #3 WAYS AND MEANS and ending in the eighth with #1 ASBURY PARK/#1A NOBLE CONFESSOR and #9 SOLUTIONS.

TOTAL WAGERED: $45.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Louise Procter, Race 7
Longshot: Solutions, Race 8

R1

Sassy Shenanigans
Bellacose
Geopolitics

#4 SASSY SHENANIGANS (5-1): Didn’t seem like she sat her desired trip last time, when she was a one-paced third after being up close out of the gate. She hits me as more of a closer, and that could benefit her in a race with what seems like a lot of early speed signed on; #10 BELLACOSE (6-1): Romped in her debut here last summer before struggling in a pair of stakes races. We haven’t seen her since November, but she’s been working steadily ahead of her first start for Wesley Ward and returns with Lasix; #5 GEOPOLITICS (3-1): Burned quite a bit of money last year, losing as an odds-on favorite four different times. She’s been off since November, but of the other speed types, she looks the fastest early and the most likely to hang on for a share.

R2

Repole entry
Resurge
Surprise

REPOLE ENTRY (8/5): Both #1 NUMBERED and #1A ENDORSE could win this. The former has a right to improve after running third in the slop in her unveiling last month, while the latter sports a series of strong local drills and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #11 RESURGE (4-1): Debuts for Bill Mott and is bred to be any kind. Dam Close Hatches was a heck of a racehorse, and she’s a top-class broodmare that’s thrown stakes horses Tacitus, Scylla, and Batten Down, among others; #6 SURPRISE (6-1): Ran fifth in her debut at Keeneland, but that wasn’t an easy spot. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and this one has bounced back with a couple of workouts that indicate she got plenty out of her initial start.

R3

Laser Sharp (MTO)
Works for Me
Run Carson

#3 WORKS FOR ME (8/5): Fell just short in his 2025 debut, where he lost a brutal head bob as an odds-on favorite. He sprang a 23-1 upset in a stakes race late last year, Flavien Prat returns to ride, and I think he’s a very legitimate favorite; #4 RUN CARSON (6-1): Made up a lot of ground to finish third in his return to the races at Keeneland after a slow start. He’s run well here several times in the past, and he’s a consistent sort who generally runs the same race every time; #7 REFUEL (10-1): Merits a look at a bit of a price in his second start off of a long, long break. He set a very fast pace in his return to the races before fading for fourth, and the presence of top gate rider Luis Saez indicates he’ll be prominent early once again.

R4

Vehemente
Nolita
Army Gal

#7 VEHEMENTE (3-1): Is doing the best running of her career and will look to record her third straight win in this spot. Kendrick Carmouche is 2-for-2 aboard this filly, and I like that she’s got plenty of tactical speed but doesn’t absolutely need the lead in order to run well; #1 NOLITA (8-1): Is a stone closer in a race with what seems like plenty of early speed elsewhere. She was last seen running second behind Dolomie at Aqueduct, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be; #5 ARMY GAL (5/2): Had every chance last time out but couldn’t get by the winner after what seemed like an ideal stalking trip. Perhaps this group is a bit weaker, but the stretchout to seven furlongs is an unknown and she’ll likely be a pretty short price (which would hit me as an underlay).

R5

Dreamlike
Malarchuk
Costa Terra

#7 DREAMLIKE (9/2): Has run once since last June, and that was a clunker over the synthetic at Gulfstream. However, he has prior dirt races that would crush this field, including a third-place finish behind Lord Miles in the 2023 Wood Memorial (if you know me, you had to know that reference was coming); #2 MALARCHUK (4-1): Adds blinkers after a no-excuses second at 3/5 in an off-the-turf race downstate. He stretches back out to two turns for this one, and given his running lines, it feels like blinkers should absolutely move him forward; #4 COSTA TERRA (20-1): Merits a look underneath at a big price. He’s hit the board in six of seven Saratoga starts, he has a win at this distance, and Umberto Rispoli sees fit to take the mount. This is a class jump from his last few efforts, but he has 2024 races that would give him a puncher’s chance in here.

R6

Ways and Means
Scylla
Miss Justify

#3 WAYS AND MEANS (6/5): Returned from a six-month break to run third in the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff. That Churchill Downs track was very tiring, and a few different horses paid for not having a recent race. I’m banking on a significant step forward in the Grade 2 Bed o’ Roses, especially since she won the Grade 1 Test at this route last summer; #2 SCYLLA (5/2): Was fourth in the race my top pick exits, and she was another coming in off of a long break. I think there’s a chance she wants longer than this distance, but she was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint last year and could also move forward; #6 MISS JUSTIFY (12-1): Takes a jump up in class but has won four of her last five starts. The lone defeat came in last summer’s Grade 1 Alabama going much longer, so I have no problem tossing that race. A step forward from her optional claiming prep downstate could get her a check at a nice price.

R7

Louise Procter
Mystifying
Wrigleyville

#7 LOUISE PROCTER (4-1): Makes her U.S. debut for Chad Brown and gets Lasix for the first time, which is always an appealing angle. Her prior connections took some big shots after a 3-for-3 start, including a Group 1 at Longchamp last spring, and she’s been working steadily for this outfit since shipping in; #3 MYSTIFYING (2-1): Was beaten a neck at Keeneland in her first start of the season and has a right to improve off of that effort. She was a close-up second behind a very nice horse on closing day here last summer, and she figures to be prominent early (never a bad trip on the inner turf); #10 WRIGLEYVILLE (10-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but goes to the barn of respected horseman Tom Proctor and may have needed her seasonal debut at Gulfstream going shorter. She stretches back out to two turns, which is probably her desired trip.

R8

St. Elias entry
Solutions
Tom Collins

ST. ELIAS ENTRY (6/5): #1 ASBURY PARK drew into the body of the field and was a 9/5 favorite in his lone start to date, where he ran a fast-closing fifth. He’ll get Lasix for the first time, while #1A NOBLE CONFESSOR looks to draw in off the AE list. Either can win, which makes the entry impossible to ignore; #9 SOLUTIONS (12-1): Showed speed in his debut on dirt, but his bottom-side pedigree says he’ll love the lawn. He’s kin to stakes-placed turfer Killjoy, and dam Sally Dangles (by top turf influence More Than Ready) is a half to graded stakes winner Consumer Credit, who did his best work on the grass; #6 TOM COLLINS (6-1): Led turning for home before fading to finish fifth in a tough spot for the level on the Derby Day undercard. His two-back effort at Tampa wasn’t bad, and he was a close-up third at this route late last summer behind the well-meant Agate Road.

R9

Raging Sea
Randomized
Leslie’s Rose

#4 RAGING SEA (5/2): Sprang a mild upset in the Grade 1 La Troienne, where she defeated reigning Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna. She did get an ideal trip that day, but it was also her first race in six months and she’s been working very, very well ahead of the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps. A step forward would make her a real handful; #7 RANDOMIZED (9/2): Completes a powerful 1-2 punch for Chad Brown and looks like this race’s main speed. She was third behind Raging Sea last time out, and she’s 3-for-5 at Saratoga, including a win in this race last year over champion Idiomatic; #3 LESLIE’S ROSE (7/2): May have needed her run in the Grade 3 Vagrancy, and that race was much shorter than her ideal two-turn trip. That’s what she gets here, and a return to her Grade 1-winning form from early-2024 would give her a chance in this loaded event.

R10

Grand Sonata
Limited Liability
Flatten the Curve

#8 GRAND SONATA (6-1): Tries the grueling two-mile trip for the first time in the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup, but he’s got a ton of back class. He’s a Grade 2 winner who has faced some of the top turf horses in training, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., hopping aboard is a big, big plus; #3 LIMITED LIABILITY (2-1): Was third in this race a season ago and looks like the main speed, which is always dangerous in marathon turf races. Frankie Dettori knows him well, and his best race could win this, but he’s also won just once since May of 2023, and that makes him hard to trust at a short price; #1 FLATTEN THE CURVE (3-1): Comes over from Europe for his event and has won four in a row, including a Group 2 event in Germany. German racing isn’t quite the caliber of England or France, but that win came at this distance and his regular rider sees fit to fly in.

R11

Good Cheer
Bless the Broken
Shred the Gnar

#2 GOOD CHEER (1/2): May be the shortest-priced favorite of the day, and for good reason. She’s a perfect 7-for-7, cruised to victory in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks five weeks ago, and has been working well since. If she puts forth her usual effort in the Grade 1 Acorn, it’d be tough to imagine her getting beaten; #5 BLESS THE BROKEN (10-1): Came from way back to finish third in the Oaks at a price, and she may once again get a solid setup here. There’s plenty of early speed in this group, and that could allow her to rally for a big piece of this one; #4 SHRED THE GNAR (3-1): May be the “wise guy” horse in here after two runaway wins, but I have some doubts. She’s never won from off the pace, she’ll run without Lasix for the first time, and regular rider Luis Saez hops off to ride the favorite. That’s a lot to swallow.

R12

She Feels Pretty
Forever After All
Gimme a Nother

#8 SHE FEELS PRETTY (3/5): Returned to the races with a flourish in the Grade 3 Modesty, where she never once looked like a loser. She’s now 3-for-3 since adding blinkers, she’s proven she can handle this distance, and she should get an ideal trip in the Grade 1 New York; #1 FOREVER AFTER ALL (10-1): Ran a monster race in the Grade 3 Bewitch, which she won by nine lengths while geared down late. This is a significant class jump, to be sure, but she may simply be in career-best form (while in foal!), and I think she may offer value in the exotics behind a short-priced favorite; #3 GIMME A NOTHER (7/2): Chased my top pick last time out and has run well in two U.S. tries since shipping in from South Africa. She went 7-for-7 in her homeland and has literally never run a bad race. The question is, is more distance what she wants?

R13

Choisya
Excellent Truth
A Lilac Rolla

#9 CHOISYA (4-1): Benefited from a controversial “no change” ruling to win the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley in her U.S. debut. She probably got lucky to stay up, but at the same time, there’s a chance she still would’ve won even without shifting out. She topped the classy Cinderella’s Dream on the square two back, and she could add another Grade 1 win in the Just A Game; #8 EXCELLENT TRUTH (5/2): Was second behind my top pick last time out and looks for some revenge here. That was her first try since July, and she could continue what looks to be a banner day in the making for trainer Chad Brown; #7 A LILAC ROLLA (6-1): Makes her U.S. debut off a long break, but her early-2024 races were very sharp. She was second in the Group 1 1,000 Guineas at The Curragh before running third behind world-class mare Porta Fortuna at Newmarket, and she’s got a big chance if she’s ready to run.

R14

Broman entry
Poppy’s Ticket
Counter Move

BROMAN ENTRY (2-1): #1 KEEPINITREAL has a big chance if he’s ready to run, but I prefer #1A IRON DOME, who has a lot to like if he draws in off the AE list. He’s been running in open races at Oaklawn, and this would be his first try against New York-breds. The switch from Erik Asmussen to Jose Ortiz is a big one, too; #14 POPPY’S TICKET (8-1): Merits a long look at a bit of a price in his second career start. He was stuck inside after not making the lead, but showed some poise in rallying for third. He gets a better post here, comes in off of a sharp work downstate, and could have lots of room to improve with experience; #12 COUNTER MOVE (3-1): Looks like the main speed in here, which is a plus, but he’s flopped twice in a row as an odds-on favorite without any apparent excuses. The cutback to seven furlongs may help him a bit, but there are still legitimate stamina concerns that are tough to stomach (especially at a short price).