BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

My opening day is Wednesday, as I’m off to a late start for the best possible reason. I’ve just gotten married and returned from a wonderful honeymoon in Europe. We had a blast, and judging by the weather that hit upstate New York over the past week, I picked a decent time to stay away from the betting windows!

For those new to The Pink Sheet or my website: In this section, I start with a mythical $1,000 bankroll and look to build it up as much as I can between now and Labor Day. Last summer’s season was my best one ever, and we’ll look to build off of that success starting on Wednesday. Let’s get to it!

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll head to the eighth, where I think there may be some value in the two outside horses. I’ll key #8 GILMORE and #9 MY NOBLE KNIGHT in $4 exactas that use those two, #4 SYSTEMIC CHANGE, and #5 ALTERNATE REALITY underneath. I’ll also box my top two in additional $3 exactas for good measure.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS: JULY 16TH, 2025

Best Bet: Irrelevant, Race 2
Longshot: Private Flight, Race 7

R1

China Beach
Evie’s Prince
Blue Creek

#8 CHINA BEACH (5/2): Comes into the Jonathan Kiser off of three straight impressive wins and has beaten several of his opponents in prior spots. It seems like he’s come to hand for the Daltons of late, and anything close to his last three may make him tough to top; #1 EVIE’S PRINCE (3-1): Ran very well when second against Grade 1 company here last month, and he won at this level and route a season ago. It sure seems like he does his best running at the Spa, and he’ll likely have some pace to chase in here, too; #9 BLUE CREEK (9/2): Was second behind my top pick last time out and has yet to run a poor race over fences. He was stakes-placed on the flat back in 2023, so his current form isn’t a shock, and he may still have room to improve.

R2

Irrelevant
Beer Run
Snare

#5 IRRELEVANT (4-1): Has several things going for him ahead of his debut. His Penn National works merited a trip to Saratoga, and he sizzled a four-furlong bullet drill here last week. Add in that the experienced runners in here just haven’t shown much yet, and I’m very, very intrigued; #6 BEER RUN (5/2): May go off favored and isn’t totally illogical, but he’s starting to seem like a money-burner. He’s gotten bet in most of his starts, yet hasn’t found ways to get the job done against groups that weren’t that tough. Given the likely price, I’ll take a mild stance against him; #1 SNARE (12-1): Did show some improvement off the bench last time out, when he rallied to finish third downstate at a big price. His debut on turf in November wasn’t awful, and unlike several of these, at least there’s reason to think we may not have seen the best of him yet.

R3

Miles and Miles
Just Clarity
Aero Star

#1 MILES AND MILES (2-1): Takes a significant drop first off the claim for Brad Cox, who wins at a remarkable rate with similar stock. He was second behind a runaway winner at the $50,000 level last time, and he has enough early speed to make the rail draw an asset; #5 JUST CLARITY (8-1): Is one of only a few in here that’s shown an interest in passing others late. He probably needs to step forward to factor here, but the presence of Flavien Prat is a plus and the class drop also works in his favor; #3 AERO STAR (5/2): Has one way of going and will almost certainly make his presence known out of the gate. He may be fastest early, but Irad Ortiz Jr. must work out a trip to overcome legitimate stamina concerns (not to mention other horses potentially going early, too).

R4

Iron Dome
Undisputed
Shakeitforthebird

#5 IRON DOME (8/5): Gets one more chance from me stretching back out to two turns for Steve Asmussen and Jose Ortiz. I love the “sharp work two back, maintenance work last time” pattern he has, and this seems like the right level and distance; #2 UNDISPUTED (3-1): Tries two turns for the first time and is bred for such a route. His two-back effort at Aqueduct, where he ran a good second behind a next-out winner, is the best race he’s run to date, and his tactical speed is a plus; #8 SHAKEITFORTHEBIRD (12-1): Almost certainly needed a race last time out off of a long layoff and should be sharper here. These connections don’t ship from Finger Lakes to see the sights, and his debut here last summer was far from bad.

R5

Cristobal
Super Dave
Wamo

#10 CRISTOBAL (6-1): Has to navigate a trip from a tricky post in his unveiling, but he’s bred to be a solid turf horse and the two-back work hints that he has some talent. Prat hops on for a trainer that’s quietly done solid work with first-time starters, too; #3 SUPER DAVE (3-1): Is a logical morning line favorite in his debut for Wesley Ward, who’s one of the best in the game with debuting runners. A few of his turf works are solid, and it wouldn’t be shocking if this one is ready to go right away; #7 WAMO (6-1): Hammered for $210,000 at auction last summer and debuts for Mike Maker. This barn’s firsters sometimes need a race, but this son of Yaupon is bred to be speedy and attracts Luis Saez after a string of solid drills.

R6

She’s Complicated (MTO)
Sassy Princess
Higher Force

#8 SASSY PRINCESS (8/5): Takes an absolutely massive class drop for aggressive connections in this spot, one I simply cannot ignore. She ran fourth against $80,000 claimers last time out, and now she’s in for less than half that price with Saez back aboard; #5 HIGHER FORCE (10-1): May finally get to run on turf after two straight events rained onto the main track. She’s out of a Langfuhr mare, which hints she’ll love the lawn, and this trainer/jockey combination is a formidable one; #1 TEMPLE CITY TABOO (5-1): Finished third against what was probably a better group last time out, but may encounter some opposition up front here. Blinkers coming off is an interesting move given the last-out tactics, and Jose Lezcano sees fit to ride back.

R7

Duration
Private Flight
Mainstream

#1 DURATION (2-1): Is a “hold your nose” pick in a race with several high-priced auction purchases that haven’t panned out to this point. This one missed by a head last time out downstate, but he’s at least shown an ability to pass others late, and that may make the difference; #6 PRIVATE FLIGHT (15-1): Didn’t do much running in his debut last month, but this barn’s horses often need a race to get going. The switch to John Velazquez is an interesting one, and he’s got a few works that indicate he may have enough talent to outrun his odds at second asking; #3 MAINSTREAM (9/5): Disappointed last time out as a 3/5 favorite and comes back at this route again. On paper, he’s probably the horse to beat, but isn’t it concerning that he’s yielded the lead late in all three of his prior starts? Given his status as a likely favorite, I’ll try to beat him.

R8

Gilmore
My Noble Knight
Alternate Reality

#8 GILMORE (4-1): Sports a local win and has been in good form since an early-season claim by Joe Sharp. He’ll likely get plenty of pace to run at, and I think he’ll be the one they have to hold off late; #9 MY NOBLE KNIGHT (6-1): Won two in a row at Oaklawn before a fourth-place finish last time out in a race where my top pick ran second. I don’t think he sat his desired trip that day, though. He may have been a bit too close to the front, and I think he’ll improve sitting back a bit more here; #5 ALTERNATE REALITY (7/2): Nearly got the job done on a significant class jump last time out, albeit in a race that got rained off the turf. This hits me as a tougher group, and the last-out surface was quirky, to say the least, but he’s another that should be moving the right way late.

R9

Kay Cup (MTO)
Trail of Gold
Mommy’s Turn

#3 TRAIL OF GOLD (9/2): Prevailed in a three-horse photo finish last time, and both of those opponents also show up here in the Suzie O’Cain. She’s won without Lasix before, which helps, and Irad sees fit to ride back when he likely had several options; #2 MOMMY’S TURN (7/2): Hasn’t run a bad race on turf yet and may still have room to improve for powerhouse connections. That last-out photo could have gone her way easily enough, and she’ll merit plenty of respect in this spot; #7 MARVELOUS MADISON (8-1): Won her debut here last summer before trying the Grade 2 Miss Grillo, after which she went to the sidelines for seven months. She may have needed her 2025 debut, and I’m expecting her to be much sharper in here second off the bench. If she is, she’s got a chance at a bit of a price.