BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,150

It may not be what anyone wants to read, but I think Saturday’s Saratoga program might be pretty chalky. This brings to mind an age-old argument: Do public handicappers have a responsibility to constantly search for prices?

I tend to middle that discussion, which ticks off quite a few people. I see the logic behind folks saying it doesn’t always take skill to land on short-priced horses. However, if I think favorites are legitimate and my content doesn’t reflect that, it hits me as dishonest, and that’s a bridge too far for me.

That’s where this section comes in. If the pick box in The Pink Sheet is “handicapping 101,” my bankroll blurbs are “handicapping 201,” and here’s hoping we can use it to find some value.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: I’m Very Busy had every chance in the seventh but didn’t kick on, knocking out a bunch of tickets (mine included). Scratches reduced my losses to $25.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the second race, where I really like #5 OAT COUTOUR given a pedigree that hints he’ll love going two turns on the grass. I’ll have a $30 win bet on him, and I hope we get the 8-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

SARATOGA ANALYSIS AND SELECTIONS FOR JULY 19TH, 2025

Best Bet: Immersive, Race 10
Longshot: Oat Coutour, Race 2

R1

Belloro
Victory Hall
Atenea

#4 BELLORO (5/2): Sports a flashy two-back gate drill ahead of her unveiling for a barn that knows how to get precocious 2-year-olds ready to run. Her dam is kin to Grade 1 winner X Y Jet, and she possesses plenty of win-early pedigree; #6 VICTORY HALL (4-1): Shipped to Saratoga after a few strong works at Monmouth for another outfit that does strong work with debuting runners. A daughter of young sire Independence Hall, her bottom-side pedigree is strong (though some of it hints she may want to go longer); #8 ATENEA (3-1): Sold for $50,000 at auction, a solid number considering her sire’s modest $6,000 stud fee. She’s worked steadily for Jose D’Angelo, attracts Jose Ortiz, and can’t be ignored from the outside draw.

R2

Oat Coutour
English Castle
Trinity River

#5 OAT COUTOUR (8-1): Goes two turns on turf for the first time and is bred to love it. His dam, Res Ipsa, did her best work in those spots, and his turf debut going short wasn’t bad. Add in a recent strong gate drill and the potential to improve, and this price hits me as a significant overlay; #8 ENGLISH CASTLE (5/2): Looks like the main speed, which is never a bad thing on the inner turf. There are legitimate stamina issues here, but he does take a slight drop in class and he ran well here twice last summer against similar stock; #2 TRINITY RIVER (2-1): Drops in for a tag for the first time in his first outing since January. His 2024 turf efforts weren’t bad, to be sure, and he’s a contender if he runs to them, but the layoff of more than six months is certainly a concern.

R3

Consider It Done (MTO)
Bosun
Not for Hire

#5 BOSUN (5/2): Gets a significant jockey switch back to Jose Ortiz, who piloted him to a runaway win at Fair Grounds earlier this year. He was probably left with too much to do under other riders in his last two outings, and this event seems to have plenty of pace signed on; #3 NOT FOR HIRE (7/2): Got the ultimate equipment change recently and will make his first start as a gelding here. He returned to form last time when second behind a talented runner who repeated at next asking, and this barn is off to a strong start at this stand; #4 ON THE LEDGE (9/2): Won his first turf start last time out and has taken two of three outings since coming back from a long break. This isn’t an easy race for the level, but he seems to be in top form and may have found a future on the grass.

R4

Claire’s Run
Strong State
Paula’s a Star

#7 CLAIRE’S RUN (8-1): Never looked like a loser as a heavy favorite last time out, when she crushed an overmatched restricted field by seven lengths. She was bet in her debut, too, but simply may not have liked the turf. This is a tougher spot, but I think there’s a chance she’s got a lot of ability; #6 STRONG STATE (9/2): Capitalized on a friendly pace scenario last time out, when she rallied from seventh in her first try since June. She spent last season running against some very tough horses, including champion Immersive, and she was fourth in last year’s Grade 1 Spinaway behind that one; #3 PAULA’S A STAR (7/2): Drops back into allowance company after outrunning her 24-1 odds when fourth in the Jersey Girl last month. She’s got some early speed and gets Lasix again after not being able to run with it agains tougher horses in her most recent outing.

R5

Film Star (MTO)
Barber entry
Activist Investing

BARBER ENTRY (4/5): Both #1 CLEAR CONSCIENCE and #1A RHETORICAL can win here. The former is 2-for-3 at Saratofa and got his nose down to win last month’s Kingston at this route, while the latter returned from a long break to crush allowance company downstate; #8 ACTIVIST INVESTING (4-1): Has run just once since September of 2023, when his connections tried that year’s Grade 3 Virginia Derby (a race that’s aged spectacularly). He was second back in February at Gulfstream, and while he’s clearly had his issues, he’ll be a major player if he’s ready to run; #5 DAUNT (12-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but he’s been running against some very good turf horses going a bit longer. The eight-month layoff is a concern, but he’s run well fresh before and could offer some value underneath.

R6

Curlin’s Angel
Alimara
Wrigleyville

#2 CURLIN’S ANGEL (5/2): Was one of the most visually-impressive winners of last month’s Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. She rated well off a modest pace and inhaled the field to win going away. This is a tougher spot, but improvement is logical at second asking, which is scary to consider; #6 ALIMARA (3-1): Hasn’t run a bad one since coming to the U.S. in early-2024 and most recently ran second in a similar spot downstate. Like my top pick, she’s a closer, and the last race didn’t exactly set up for her preferred running style; #4 WRIGLEYVILLE (8-1): Seems best of the rest in what hits me as a two-horse race. She hasn’t won since June of last year, but she’s run well on turf courses in three states since then and was a decent third last month in her first try for this barn.

R7

Growth Equity
Our Magical Moon
Stradale

#8 GROWTH EQUITY (5/2): Gets a tepid nod in a fascinating 2-year-old maiden race with eight first-time starters. This son of Nyquist is out of a stakes horse, sold for $425,000 last year, and has been working steadily for Chad Brown ahead of his unveiling; #9 OUR MAGICAL MOON (10-1): Merits a look at a price. He’s a half to Grade 3 winner Dixie Serenade who’s turned in some flashy drills for Mark Casse, including a two-back bullet out of the gate on July 1st; #3 STRADALE (3-1): Hammered for $1.3 million after an impressive showing at this year’s OBS Sale. Based on that alone, he’ll take plenty of money and may be favored. However, his bottom-side pedigree is all-turf (his dam is a full to Grade 1 winner Stormy Lucy), and while Steve Asmussen’s first-out numbers are OK, they’re not exceptional. He wouldn’t stun me, but I’ll try to beat him.

R8

Warrior Richard (MTO)
Padiddle
Bettrluckythangood

#9 PADIDDLE (7/2): Drops into allowance company after a few solid performances against stakes foes. He was third in three straight graded stakes, and he’ll be able to run with Lasix again thanks to the return to this level; #6 BETTRLUCKYTHANGOOD (6-1): Didn’t have a great trip when fourth in the Kingston and tries this trip for the first time. He’s a consistent closer who generally runs the same race every time, and he’ll be going the right way if he gets a pace to run at; #7 MAYOR OF MIDNIGHT (5-1): Tries winners for the first time after graduating on the stretchout downstate last month. His pedigree says this type of trip is what he wants, and the connections merit respect, but the rider switch off of out-of-town Flavien Prat is a concern, and I’m just not sure what he beat last time.

R9

Halina’s Forte (MTO)
Future Is Now
Pipsy

#7 FUTURE IS NOW (5/2): Got a bit unlucky last time when second in the Grade 2 Intercontinental here last month, but she’s an ultra-consistent mare who always seems to show up. She’s never misfired here, and running at even weights with the last-out winner here may make the difference in the Grade 3 Caress; #6 PIPSY (7/2): Became the Intercontinental Champion (come on, I had to) last time out in wire-to-wire fashion while getting six pounds from my top pick here. It’s probably the best race she’s run to date, and when this barn gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #2 ZEITLOS (8-1): Is another rock-solid mare who always seems to show up. She tried turf in last year’s Caress, where she was a fast-closing fifth, and this year’s event also seems pretty heavy on early speed.

R10

Immersive
La Cara
Take Charge Milady

#1 IMMERSIVE (8/5): Had a very strange trip in her return to the races off a long break. She was second as a 2/5 favorite in the Monomoy Girl, but on top of the trip, she may have needed the race, and that clearly wasn’t the goal for these connections. I think she’ll be much sharper in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks; #6 LA CARA (2-1): Wired the field in the Grade 1 Acorn on Belmont Day, where she relished the slop and splashed home. I do think there’s other speed signed on, and I’m skeptical of some races contested over that quirky surface, but another Grade 1 win would give her three on the season; #4 TAKE CHARGE MILADY (9/2): Beat my top pick last time out after a throwout in the Kentucky Oaks, where she was battling a minor issue leading up to the race and clearly wasn’t herself. She was second behind La Cara in the Grade 1 Ashland, and she’d benefit from that one getting kept honest up front.

R11

Book’em Danno
Skelly
Mullikin

#5 BOOK’EM DANNO (5/2): Has proven to be a top-tier sprinter and will look for his third win in four Saratoga tries in the Grade 2 Vanderbilt. He ran very well to take the Grade 3 True North last time, and he was beaten just a neck by Mindframe two back in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs on Derby Day; #1 SKELLY (4-1): Seems like the controlling speed in this race, which is never a bad thing to be. When he’s good, he’s one of the fastest horses in the country, and he’ll look to do one better than last year, when he settled for second in this race as an even-money favorite; #4 MULLIKIN (7/2): Hit the front in the True North before being reeled in by my top pick, who also beat him to the wire in the Churchill Downs. I liked this one a lot in both spots, and his best effort is certainly good enough to win this, but given that he hasn’t won since August, it may be fair to wonder if he’s past his peak.

R12

Invictus
Stars and Strides
Vekoma Rides

#9 INVICTUS (4-1): Cut back to one turn last time but was left with far, far too much to do. He still salvaged fourth that day, though, and he showed a new dimension being able to make up ground. Given a less-eventful trip, I think he has what it takes to spring a mild upset of…; #6 STARS AND STRIDES (7/5): …who prevailed at first asking last time out and tries winners here. That race came back well from a speed figure standpoint, but again, that surface was quirky, and the runner-up was a major disappointment here earlier this week. At his likely price, I’ll take a mild stand against; #3 VEKOMA RIDES (10-1): May have needed his last-out effort, when he ran third downstate in his first outing since November. He tried some tough spots last year, including the Grade 1 Champagne, and he adds blinkers for a small but astute barn in the Saturday nightcap.