BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,120

“Quarantine” is never a word racing people like to hear, and unfortunately, it reared its head Saturday morning at Saratoga. A suspected case of strangles meant restrictive measures were put into place at Barn 28 at the Spa. As a result, La Cara was scratched from the Coaching Club American Oaks, and she’ll look to affirm her standing at the top of this year’s 3-year-old filly division another day.

NYRA’s excellent TV broadcast had a primer on strangles, which is basically the equine version of strep throat in humans. The NYRA press release issued Saturday morning further states that, with proper treatment, strangles isn’t life-threatening and horses fully recover. It’s lousy timing, to be sure, but hopefully things blow over sooner rather than later.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I’ve got no complaints with the effort from Oat Coutour, who did take a step forward in his first two-turn outing. However, he could only manage a runner-up finish in the second behind the odds-on favorite I went against, who got a perfect trip. I dropped $30.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ve got a very strong opinion in the finale. I think #5 YOUGOTTAHAVEHOPE towers over this group, and I’m betting accordingly. In addition to a $30 win bet, she’ll finish a 50-cent late Pick Four ticket which starts in the seventh and looks like this: 1,5 with 1,2,3,4,7,9 with 2,4 with 5.

TOTAL WAGERED: $42.

SARATOGA ANALYSIS AND SELECTIONS FOR JULY 20TH, 2025

Best Bet: Yougotahavehope, Race 10
Longshot: Tidal Forces, Race 7

R1

Makes Sense
Rice entry
Preposition

#6 MAKES SENSE (8/5): Hits me as the more imposing of two Todd Pletcher trainees in the Sunday opener. He didn’t run badly when second behind a pretty nice horse last time out, and he looks imposing on the drop into the maiden claiming ranks; RICE ENTRY (6-1): Both runners hit me as contenders. #1 FREEDOM MAKER comes back into maiden claimers and has been competitive at this level, while #1A THE TACO LADY stretches back out to two turns and could be the main speed against the boys if she’s ready to go; #7 PREPOSITION (10-1): Tries two turns for the first time and is bred to love it. This son of Tapit is out of a Candy Ride mare, and while he’s been a bit disappointing so far, he’s got a right to wake up given the class drop and the added distance his pedigree says he wants.

R2

Regalton
My Divine Spirit
Tater Tot

#5 REGALTON (4-1): Ran well in his debut back in May, when she made up plenty of ground to be second behind a winner who repeated at next asking. George Weaver trainees tend to improve with experience, and this one may have plenty of talent; #1 MY DIVINE SPIRIT (5/2): Debuts for Chad Brown and has a mountain of turf pedigree, as most of his European-bred runners do. She’ll take plenty of money in her unveiling, but the rail draw isn’t an ideal one for some first-time starters, and I don’t think this is a bad field; #6 TATER TOT (8-1): Was third in her debut back in April, but comes in off of a sparkling turf work that hints grass is what she wants. She’s got a right to move forward with a start under her belt and may provide value at a bit of a price.

R3

Warrior Richard (MTO)
Brown entry
Slapintheface

BROWN ENTRY (6/5): #1 DEBT LIMIT isn’t without a chance, but I prefer #1A MOVE TO GOLD, who showed plenty of talent before going to the sidelines last summer. This will be his first start with Lasix, and if he’s ready to run off the bench, he’s strictly the one to beat; #6 SLAPINTHEFACE (5-1): Showed a new dimension racing on the lead last time and might be in front by default early on. He also had every right to need that race off a long layoff, so between that and the likely race shape, he’s got every right to move forward; #7 BE OF COURAGE (9/2): Was third when trying a marathon distance last time out and returns to a more conventional trip here. This barn has been ice-cold this season, but he’s run well in all three 2025 outings, and his usual race could easily get him a piece of it.

R4

Confabulation
Scheduling Dude
Eliminate

#5 CONFABULATION (3-1): Is a tepid top pick in a race where my strongest opinion is against a heavy favorite, rather than for a particular horse. He’s been off since January, but his one-turn races have been sharp, and the two-turn experiment last time out hits me as a throwout; #7 SCHEDULING DUDE (6-1): Tried turf last time out, and while he’s bred to love it, he showed he doesn’t. He’s back to dirt here, and he hits me as the most likely early leader. If he gets comfortable, he could lead them a long way; #6 ELIMINATE (7/5): May make me look silly, but I simply don’t like him much in here, especially given his likely price. He’s 0-for-4 at Saratoga, and while his last-out clunker came over a quirky surface on Belmont weekend, that’s far from the only head-scratcher on his sheet. I think this is a short-priced favorite you’re supposed to try to beat.

R5

Save Time
Cassiar
Catherine Wheel

#4 SAVE TIME (6-1): Tried top-notch competition last time out, but got thumped by Thorpedo Anna at Churchill Downs and returns to the right level here. Her two-back win in May was solid, and that day’s runner-up came right back to win next time out; #6 CASSIAR (6-1): Is 2-for-2 with Lasix and gets access to it again after a failed try in Grade 3 company last time out. She’s a 3-year-old going against her elders, which isn’t an easy thing to do, but this seems like the right level and Shug McGaughey certainly knows how to spot his horses; #5 CATHERINE WHEEL (8/5): Will likely be a pretty heavy chalk, but while I’m not against her as much as I am Eliminate, I have my doubts. Given her sheet, I think she may be better going one turn, and it’s not like she blows this field away on speed figures. Perhaps she wins, but at her likely price, I’ll take a stand against.

R6

Hey Toby (MTO)
Mizertonic
Outtawaterbury

#2 MIZERTONIC (8/5): Has run well twice since coming off the sidelines and was most recently second downstate at this level. He was probably left with too much to do that day, and the jockey switch to Flavien Prat is certainly a notable one; #4 OUTTAWATERBURY (8-1): Has to move forward on speed figures, but he’s shown some tactical speed, which isn’t a very common trait in this field. Given the presence of Luis Saez, I think there’s a chance he makes the lead, and that’s a good place to be on this turf course; #5 COACH CASE (2-1): Was an emotional winner for Miguel Clement here last month, but I’ve got some reservations in this spot. It’s his first try against winners, I don’t think he beat much last time out, and he’s a 3-year-old going against older company. Of the two chalks, I think this is the more vulnerable one.

R7

Castle Island (MTO)
Tidal Forces
Belouni

#5 TIDAL FORCES (5-1): My analysis could boil down to four words: “Lone speed, inner turf.” This one stretches back out to his preferred two-turn route, gets Irad Ortiz Jr., and may be alone on the front end given his tactical speed. If he is, I think he’ll be tough to catch; #1 BELOUNI (5/2): Merits respect on the significant class drop for Chad Brown and isn’t a bad favorite. His clunker here last year is excusable given the long layoff that came after it, and a repeat of his two-back performance at Tampa would give him a big chance here; #7 JOHNY’S FIREBALL (3-1): Exits some fast races at Churchill Downs and is another taking a drop in class to run for a tag. Churchill turf form doesn’t always travel, and he’s struggled elsewhere, but many of those races have come against higher-profile competition.

R8

Theprincessfactor
Golden Irish
Geez Eloise

#4 THEPRINCESSFACTOR (4-1): Took a big step forward last time out, when she wired a field to graduate at second asking. Her most recent work here was very sharp, and I think she could still be improving given her relative inexperience; #1 GOLDEN IRISH (5-1): Was eased out of her last start at Keeneland but is back on the tab for Tom Amoss and has enough speed to make the rail draw an asset. Her prior early fractions are among the fastest in this field, so the game plan shouldn’t be a secret; #2 GEEZ ELOISE (9/2): Needs to improve on speed figures, but she seems like the lone closer in a race otherwise full of early zip. Sprints don’t always fall apart, but it wouldn’t shock me if this one does, and for that reason, I have to use this Linda Rice trainee.

R9

Scylla
R Disaster
Jody’s Pride

#4 SCYLLA (2-1): Chased Ways and Means last time out when that one freaked here last month. She cuts back to six furlongs here, which I don’t think will be an issue, and the Grade 2 Honorable Miss seems like a bit of class relief given the heavy hitters she’s been running against recently; #2 R DISASTER (9/2): Hasn’t been worse than second in nine starts to date. One of those efforts was a second in the Grade 3 Vagrancy, where she edged Leslie’s Rose (the recent winner of the Shuvee); #9 JODY’S PRIDE (4-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits, which came after a win in the Grade 2 Ruffian going a mile downstate. I’m not sure this is her best distance, but she did win an off-the-turf stakes going six furlongs as a 2-year-old.

R10

Yougottahavehope
Nina Kay (MTO)
Rodriguez entry

#5 YOUGOTTAHAVEHOPE (2-1): Probably needed her 2025 debut in the Soaring Softly, given that she hadn’t run since November. She gets Lasix for the first time here, and a return to her 2-year-old form makes her strictly the one to beat in the Sunday nightcap; #1 QUICK POWER NAP (9/2): Returns to state-bred competition after two tries against open company to start her 6-year-old season. She hasn’t won in quite a while, but that class drop is a significant one and she’s run very well here in the past; #6 PHOEBEINWONDERLAND (6-1): Is a tricky read given the layoff and the surface switch, but Wesley Ward knowsn how to get horses prepped and offspring of More Than Ready love the turf. The addition of Lasix is a big equipment change, and she’s got a few works that hint she could be sitting on a solid effort in her 3-year-old debut.