BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,078

Many times, it’s fun writing these blurbs. This isn’t one of those times.

I met Gino Muehleck on Twitter a few years ago, and had the pleasure of spending some time with him and a few friends at Saratoga last year. We had our differences on certain things, but he was a kind man who was exceptionally enthusiastic about horse racing, which, at its best, is the best gambling game on the planet. He passed away this past weekend in Florida, and it hit me pretty hard. Judging by the reactions of others on social media, I’m not alone.

Rest easy, buddy. To those of us who are still here: Remember that, despite whatever personal differences we have, 99% of us all want the same thing, which is for the game to thrive. That often gets lost, and it shouldn’t.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Yougottahavehope led into the stretch of the finale but ran out of gas. I dropped $42.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I don’t have any super strong leans today, but I’m going to take a few swings in the early Pick Four (as a reminder, that starts in the third race because of the steeplechase). My $1 ticket reads as follows: 1,4,6 with 2,3 with 3 with 2,6,8. Additionally, I’ll have a $12 win bet on #3 PROBLEMATICA in the fifth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Problematica, Race 5
Longshot: Vesting, Race 6

R1

Awakened
Proven Innocent
Jimmy P

#7 AWAKENED (2-1): Came off the bench running when third against Grade 1 company at this route last month. That was his first start in nearly a year, and he represents half of a powerful 1-2 punch for trainer Jack Fisher in the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick; #5 PROVEN INNOCENT (5/2): Came from way back to get the money in that Grade 1 race and will look for a second straight score at this level. He does pick up six pounds off of that win, though, and it’s telling a higher-percentage rider opts to pilot Awakened, not this one; #3 JIMMY P (7/2): Freaked in last year’s Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard, which he won by 34 lengths. He hasn’t found that form in four subsequent starts, but he’s also never finished worse than third in three local outings.

R2

Zadorsky
Weigh the Risks
Braganza

#5 ZADORSKY (3-1): Notched two impressive wins in Kentucky this spring and returns to Saratoga, where she’s got a win and two seconds in three local tries. She’s a consistent, stakes-placed filly who loves this seven-furlong distance, and this barn means business when it ships; #1 WEIGH THE RISKS (7/5): Showed plenty of form over the winter and is a logical favorite for powerhouse connections, but I have a few doubts. We haven’t seen her since February, I’m not sure she beat a ton at Aqueduct, and the rail draw may be a bit tricky since she isn’t a natural front-runner. At her likely price, I’ll take a mild stand against her; #4 BRAGANZA (8-1): Hasn’t run since November but has been working consistently and does her best running going seven furlongs. She’s a one-run closer who wants some pace, and there seems to be some signed on here.

R3

Empty Tomb
Good Skate
Manta Rey

#4 EMPTY TOMB (3-1): Has won two in a row since being claimed by this barn and won at this level and route a season ago. He’s a 9-year-old that’s won $553,000 the hard way, and he’s shown he’s tough to pass if he’s on or near the lead; #1 GOOD SKATE (5/2): Takes a massive drop for aggressive connections that aren’t afraid to make that kind of move. Perhaps that wakes him up, and it’s not like he’s an awful favorite, but the 0-for-5 local mark is certainly a red flag; #6 MANTA REY (4-1): Is another dropping in class, and that last-out race wasn’t an easy one for the level. That day’s winner came back to repeat, and this one may move forward given the likely race shape and the presence of several speed horses.

R4

Gardiner
Trust Issues
Zippy Mark

#2 GARDINER (5/2): Goes out for a barn that’s gotten off to a scorching start to the meet. He ships in from Churchill after a solid second at this level, and regular rider Jose Ortiz will likely have him in an ideal spot just off the pace; #3 TRUST ISSUES (3-1): Ran fourth in the race my top pick exits, and he had a less-than-ideal trip. He probably wasn’t winning, but trouble may have cost him third. Irad Ortiz Jr. may give him a cleaner trip here; #5 ZIPPY MARK (9/2): Tried two turns last time out, and that proved to be a bit too far. He gets a more desired trip here (albeit against open company rather than Arkansas-breds), and if there’s any moisture in the track, he’d definitely move up.

R5

Problematica
Talkin in Cursive
Gone and Forgotten

#3 PROBLEMATICA (9/2): Didn’t run well at all last time, when she faded to last just two weeks ago. However, I’m willing to give her one more shot. There doesn’t seem to be much other speed signed on, and if she and Jose Ortiz get comfortable, I think they could steal it on the front end; #2 TALKIN IN CURSIVE (8/5): Certainly ran very well last time out, when she ran for three times her prior claiming price and won as much the best at 16-1. The potential for a bounce is absolutely there, though, and if this one’s so well-meant, why does this barn also saddle…; #4 GONE AND FORGOTTEN (2-1): …who goes first off the claim and gets Flavien Prat? Either could win on their best day, but this is a curious uncoupled entry, and given the short prices involved, it’s worth asking some questions.

R6

Film Star (MTO)
Vesting
Mutaawid

#6 VESTING (6-1): Has never run a truly bad race going a marathon distance on turf, and he broke through last time with a wire-to-wire score downstate. He set legitimate fractions that day, too, which makes the win even more impressive, and if he gets an easy lead, he may be tough to run down; #8 MUTAAWID (9/2): Capitalized on a solid pace last time and won a race several others in here exit. He’s the second half of a solid 1-2 punch for Mike Maker, who tends to do quite well in these long-distance turf events; #5 CRYSTAL QUEST (9/5): Has back class and attracts Flavien Prat, but the Harvey Pack principle is in play here. He’s never gone this route of ground before, and I simply can’t back him as the favorite given that legitimate question mark.

R7

Daisy Duke
Looks First
Despo’s Dream

#4 DAISY DUKE (2-1): Cuts back in distance a bit after a solid second in a swiftly-run race at this level at Churchill. That day’s winner was much the best, and this seems like a softer spot with plenty of early speed to set up for her late kick; #2 LOOKS FIRST (10-1): Came flying late to be second at a big price earlier in the meet. She’s another late-running type that may benefit from the presence of several opponents that want to be on or near the lead; #7 DESPO’S DREAM (9/2): Was fifth in the race my second choice exits and probably just had way too much to do that day. She was nine lengths back at the second point of call and raced wide throughout, and while she can pass others late, that almost certainly wasn’t her desired trip.

R8

Dutrow entry
Princess Madison
Midtown Lights

DUTROW ENTRY (1-1): I prefer #2 THE BIG CALHOUNA, who won two and three back and was third behind the classy Dolomite, who’s gotten very good of late. This seems like a much softer bunch, and her usual effort would absolutely make her the one to beat; #3 PRINCESS MADISON (6-1): May have needed her last-out clunker, which was her first try since September. This barn doesn’t run many horses, but Phil Bauer is an astute horseman who knows how to get runners back on track, and she ran a very good race here last summer; #7 MIDTOWN LIGHTS (5-1): Hasn’t run since January, but has shown enough to merit some respect here in her first start for Saffie Joseph. Perhaps she needs a race, but if she’s ready to go, she could absolutely get a piece of it.

R9

Rout
Askingforafriend
The Commish

#5 ROUT (4-1): Debuts for Chad Brown and may not have to be much to graduate on debut in the nightcap. He hammered for $280,000 at auction in 2023 and is bred to be a good turf runner. His female family includes the dam of Grade 1 winner Storm Trooper, and his dam, True History, was a seven-time winner; #6 ASKINGFORAFRIEND (7/2): Didn’t have a great trip last time out, when he returned from a six-month layoff and tried turf for the first time. Improvement is certainly logical second off the bench, especially with Irad seeing fit to ride back when he probably had some options; #4 THE COMMISH (6-1): Came back running last month, when he led briefly downstate before fading to third in his first try since July. This is a class jump on paper, but he’s still in the state-bred ranks, so that’s a bit deceptive.