SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll for July 24th, 2025

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,058

One of the biggest honors of my career comes this summer. As part of its 75th anniversary celebration, the National Museum of Horse Racing and Hall of Fame has put together a book on the history of racetracks around the country. It’s called “The Racetracks of America,” and my name is next to those of some truly brilliant horse racing writers.

My feature looks at the history of tracks in Northern California, which was my adopted home circuit up until this past December. It was a pleasure to go back in time, tell the stories of horses and horsepeople, and convey the enthusiasm at those venues to readers. You can pre-order the book through the museum’s website.

Side note: It is an absolute shame that the Northern California horse racing circuit was gutted.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Problematica got an ideal trip and ran well, but she got run down in the final sixteenth. I dropped $20 after scratches.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’d like to tell you this isn’t a chalky-looking program, but that would be a lie. I’ll try to extract a shred of value out of two short prices in the third and fourth races. My play is a cold $25 double that starts with #5 BOBROVSKY and ends with #3 NEW ATTITUDE. 

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Bobrovsky, Race 3
Longshot: Irish Jackson, Race 6

R1

Sparkling Mama
Coola Boola
Spitfire

#1 SPARKLING MAMA (7/2): Sold for just $5,000 at auction this year despite a very strong pedigree that she’s been running to in the mornings. There has to be a story about what happened at the OBS sale, and I’m hoping this one merely slipped through the cracks; #3 COOLA BOOLA (2-1): Comes in off of two flashy gate drills for George Weaver, who knows how to win with first-time starters. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because her dam did her best work on turf, not dirt, and her most accomplished sibling, Know It All Audrey, is a router, not a sprinter; #5 SPITFIRE (4-1): Was a best-of-the-rest second in her debut downstate for a barn whose horses often need a race or two to get going. She passed horses that day, which isn’t too common in early-season 2-year-old races, and improvement is logical at second asking.

R2

Sturdy (MTO)
Noble Confessor
Vintage Vino

#6 NOBLE CONFESSOR (5/2): Boasts a ton of back class and may have finally found the right field in this spot. His running lines feature the likes of Zulu Kingdom and Henri Matisse, among others, and his last-out clunker is a throwout given the quirky surface; #7 VINTAGE VINO (3-1): Has been competitive in his last four starts and was third in his 2025 debut last time out. He was a bit wide that day and may have needed the race, so there’s reason to think he could move forward for high-percentage connections; #4 A BOURBON FOR TOBY (3-1): Gets a significant rider switch to Flavien Prat and cuts back in distance after a near-miss going longer downstate. His two-back effort at this distance was very good, and he’d benefit if there’s pace up front early on.

R3

Bobrovsky
Waitin’onasunnyday
Imagine John

#5 BOBROVSKY (2-1): Did everything but win in his debut at Churchill Downs, when he led most of the way and got nailed right on the wire. His lone local work was a sparkling one, and he probably doesn’t need to move forward much to beat these; #2 WAITIN’ONASUNNYDAY (5-1): Debuts for an astute outfit and has some solid workouts on his sheet. He’s kin to five winners, and while he may want a bit longer than today’s distance, there’s reason to believe he’s got some potential; #4 IMAGINE JOHN (5/2): Was a distant third in the Grade 3 Sanford and takes a significant class drop in this spot. He just barely qualifies for this restricted maiden event, and his experience edge over most of his rivals could come in handy.

R4

The Taco Lady (MTO)
New Attitude
Lotus Petal

#3 NEW ATTITUDE (3/5): Was fifth behind an impressive winner in her debut and takes a big drop in for a tag at second asking. That drop is a question mark, and you probably won’t get any value, but any improvement off her initial outing makes her a formidable favorite; #7 LOTUS PETAL (6-1): Is another dropping in class, and it can be argued she ran the best race of her career here last summer. She was third in her debut at this distance despite an unlucky trip, and perhaps running for a tag will wake her up; #4 MCKINZIE’S GLORY (6-1): Hasn’t run since November, but sports a recent bullet drill across the street and may be ready to go. She had a handful of bad trips in her 2024 campaign, and she’s a candidate to improve with smoother sailing.

R5

What’s Up Bro (MTO)
Set
Russi

#1 SET (7/5): Was a hard-luck second in his return last month, when he was beaten a nose in his first start since September. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but he should step forward second off the bench, and such an effort would make him the one to beat; #7 RUSSI (6-1): Makes his first start since November, and he does so over what’s clearly his preferred surface. He has two wins and a second in three Spa starts, and he’s a contender if he’s ready to run off the bench; #6 VACATION DANCE (3-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits and, like that one, goes second off the bench for high-percentage connections. His best is good enough to win, but he hasn’t found the winner’s circle since this meet two years ago, so it’s fair to wonder if his best days are behind him.

R6

Irish Jackson
Nina Kay
Geopolitics

#2 IRISH JACKSON (6-1): Gets a tepid nod as a closer in a race that seems full of early speed. This is a step up in class, but she was second behind a next-out winner last month, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be; #4 NINA KAY (5/2): Was distanced as a heavy favorite in February, and it’s safe to assume something went wrong because we haven’t seen her since. She does tackle older horses, but she ran well several times before that clunker; #1 GEOPOLITICS (2-1): Is a dream to own and always picks up checks, but is incredibly frustrating to bet on. She’s 1-for-9 with six seconds, and while she may go off favored, this is the type of chalk I feel one should absolutely go against.

R7

Araucano
Senor Poncho
Stanley Cat

#5 ARAUCANO (9/2): Had an eventful trip in his debut and has every right to improve with experience and a cleaner journey. Luis Saez sees fit to hop aboard, and the local work on the Oklahoma track wasn’t a bad one; #2 SENOR PONCHO (5/2): Ran second downstate in the best effort of his career to date. He shortens up from seven furlongs to six, and this barn has a win and a third from two starts at this meet to date; #4 STANLEY CAT (12-1): Has genuine stamina issues but sure looks like the main early speed. He set a solid pace last time out before fading to finish fourth, and he may not have to go so quickly early on here.

R8

Khali Magic (MTO)
Tax Implications
Proctor Street

#5 TAX IMPLICATIONS (8/5): Has been running against graded stakes company for most of her career and drops into the optional claiming ranks here. She was beaten less than two lengths in last year’s Grade 1 Matriarch at Del Mar, and her back class will have every chance to shine through; #7 PROCTOR STREET (2-1): Was hard to handle last time out, when she was second at Churchill Downs in her first outing since September. She won in last-to-first fashion here last summer, and she’d benefit from a faster-than-expected early pace; #2 MO FOX GIVIN (5-1): Hasn’t won in a long, long time, but she’s another that’s run in some big spots over the years. She’s got some work to do to recapture her best form, but such an effort would put her right there.

R9

Strategic Focus
Crudo
Chancer McPatrick

#3 STRATEGIC FOCUS (6/5): Got taken down in controversial fashion last time out, and that day’s winner came back to repeat at next asking. He runs without Lasix here in the Curlin, but he also gets to run against straight 3-year-olds for the first time; #6 CRUDO (6-1): Misfired in the Grade 1 Belmont, but his two efforts prior to that were impressive wire-to-wire scores. He’s back to what’s probably the right level here, and he could lead them a long way; #1 CHANCER MCPATRICK (9/2): Was one of the best 2-year-olds in the country a year ago, but seems to have plateaued this season without moving forward. This is a class drop for him, but while it may be the right level, I don’t think two turns is truly what he wants.

R10

Hamilton’s Way
Kid Kreesa
Rice entry

#9 HAMILTON’S WAY (7/2): Takes a big drop and runs for a tag for the first time in the Thursday nightcap. He had some excuses last time out given the trip and a loose-on-the-lead winner, and I’m expecting a significantly-improved performance; #8 KID KREESA (8-1): Ran very well here twice a season ago with a win and a second (his second is one of the worst beats of my career…), and he stepped forward second off the bench last time. He may be the main speed in this spot, and he’s shown an ability to lead them a long way if he gets comfortable; #2 VIA DELLA SPIGA (8-1): Was wide last time out and missed by less than a length. That was his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, and while the draw here is a wide one, he’s got a right to step forward at a bit of a price.

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