BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,003

Jockey Tyler Conner needs our help. He went down in a spill earlier this week at Colonial Downs and was airlifted to a local hospital. Tyler’s been diagnosed with a fractured C1 vertebrae and a broken nose, and he’s got a long road to recovery ahead of him.

A GoFundMe has been established to help Tyler and his family. If you cash a nice ticket today, or if you’re just feeling generous, this is an extremely worthy cause to support. Jockeys put their bodies on the line in every race, every day, and I’m happy to raise awareness of a way we can give back.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: In a theme that was also present last summer and this past Belmont week, I’m running second a lot. Finger Lakes shipper Styner ran his eyeballs out, but lost by a head. I dropped $30.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to focus on the middle Pick Four, which starts in the fourth and hits me as an intriguing sequence. My 50-cent ticket goes as follows: 1 with 2,6,7,8,11 with 3,4,8,13 with 4,7,8,9. If #1 ARTHUR’S RIDE runs as expected and we get a couple of prices home around him, I think this could pay reasonably well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Classic Q, Race 9
Longshot: Blamicker, Race 8

R1

Loco Abarrio
Friar Laurence
Otto the Conqueror

#2 LOCO ABARRIO (5/2): Takes a significant class drop in the Saurday opener for William Walden, who’s won at a very, very high percentage. I think this one is the speed of the speed, and if that’s the case, he could prove tough to run down; #5 FRIAR LAURENCE (4-1): Also drops in class and got the job done against $50,000 claimers two back at Churchill. He seems like one of the few closers in here, and he should certainly get some pace to chase; #4 OTTO THE CONQUEROR (8/5): Has ample back class and certainly wants to be forwardly-placed. My hesitation is because six furlongs seems a bit shorter than what he truly wants, and at his likely price, I find him a bit tough to swallow.

R2

Soldier N Diplomat
Accost
Further Ado

#4 SOLDIER N DIPLOMAT (8/5): Hammered for $950,000 at OBS earlier this year despite a modest pedigree and has turned in some strong gate works ahead of his debut. All indications are he’s a runner, and he’s my strongest lean in a loaded 2-year-old maiden race; #5 ACCOST (6-1): Debuts for Chad Brown and has a recent bullet on his sheet. His bottom-side pedigree is pretty impressive, as his dam won a stakes race and his second dam threw a total of seven winners; #6 FURTHER ADO (5/2): Sold for $550,000 earlier this year and is another with a strong work tab. He’s kin to a horse named Kimbear, who’s won multiple stakes races in Dubai, and he looks like a contender despite possibly wanting a bit longer than this distance.

R3

Brave Buck
Tarpaulin
Dialbolico

#4 BRAVE BUCK (3-1): Wasn’t persevered with last time out, and he was claimed out of that race by Linda Rice, who aggressively drops him in class for this event. She’s won at a ridiculous 41% clip with horses dropping first off the clim, and he has back races that would win this; #8 TARPAULIN (5/2): Runs for a tag again after two tries against starter allowance company, and he’d benefit from some pace in front of him. He’s a 3-year-old going against older, which is a question mark, but ignore these high-percentage connections at your own peril; #7 DIALBOLICO (12-1): Has never run a truly bad race sprinting and goes first off the claim for an outfit that doesn’t reach in much. He was third last time out, and that day’s winner came back to win again earlier in the meet.

R4

Arthur’s Ride
Trademark
Film Star

#1 ARTHUR’S RIDE (4/5): Won last year’s Grade 1 Whitney, but misfired twice against top-tier competition before going to the sidelines. This isn’t an easy spot for the level, but he gets to run with Lasix, which has significantly helped him in the past. If he’s ready, the race is for second; #2 TRADEMARK (6-1): Is a graded stakes winner in his own right, having won the Grade 2 Clark in 2023. He may have gained some confidence with a last-out win in Indiana, and he’s got enough tactical speed to sit an ideal stalking trip; #3 FILM STAR (7/2): Has done plenty of good work at the Spa and may have been compromised by a wide trip last time out. His two-back effort was solid, and he’s another that figures to be on or near the lead early.

R5

Dark Magic (MTO)
Unbroken Chain
Nano Man

#6 UNBROKEN CHAIN (6-1): Takes a drop in class after two turf tries against higher-level competition downstate. Melanie Giddings has had some success already this summer, and those two tries on turf were far from bad; #8 NANO MAN (9/2): Goes back to John Kimmel, who won with him at this route last summer. His last two races at Gulfstream were going two turns, and I think he’ll significantly benefit from a cutback in distance; #11 READY SET TWIRL (10-1): Was fourth against a tougher group a few weeks ago and drops into restricted claiming company, which is significant class relief. Rudy Rodriguez’s barn has gotten off to a rough start, and the post position isn’t ideal, but he doesn’t need to move forward much from his last-out effort to be a factor in this wide-open turf sprint.

R6

Summer Whirl (AE)
Tongue Twister
North End Lady

#13 SUMMER WHIRL (5-1): Needs a scratch to draw in but merits a big chance if she gets to run. She lost a pretty dirty photo last time out going a bit longer, and while she’ll be far back early on, there does seem to be some pace signed on, which could set up for her; #4 TONGUE TWISTER (5/2): Was wide last time out in a race without much pace, and ran a clunker at a short price as a result. The switch to Irad Ortiz Jr. is notable, and she ran well here twice a season ago; #8 NORTH END LADY (6-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits, and like that one, I think that may have just been a bit too far for her. Her races at this distance are solid, and while Barclay Tagg’s had an ice-cold 2025, this one hits me as a contender.

R7

Academia
Vajra
Tommy Jo

#9 ACADEMIA (5-1): Is one of several fillies in here with a world-class pedigree. She’s by Into Mischief, out of Grade 1 winner Wow Cat, sports a flashy recent gate drill for Chad Brown, and gets a draw near the outside, which could help this first-time starter relax a bit; #4 VAJRA (5/2): Helped set a very fast pace in her debut at Churchill, where she faded to finish fifth. She’s got an experience edge over all of her rivals in this spot, and a step forward with a start under her belt can be expected for a trainer whose horses improve with seasoning; #7 TOMMY JO (4-1): Debuts for the Pletcher/Velazquez tag team and has been working well over this surface. Her dam won multiple stakes races, and she’s from the same female family that produced Kentucky Derby runner-up Commanding Curve, among others.

R8

Blamicker
Stewie
Sir Kartrite

#4 BLAMICKER (8-1): Ships in from Finger Lakes with the regular rider in tow, which is a move that always gets my attention. He ran a big race last time to romp by more than seven lengths, and while this is a tougher spot, he’s got every right to improve second off the bench at a bit of a price; #2 STEWIE (5-1): Hasn’t won in more than 10 months, but he was a good second at this level and route last month. He shouldn’t have to go nearly as fast early on in this spot, and the rider upgrade to Irad is a big one; #8 SIR KARTRITE (8-1): May have needed his last-out clunker, which doubled as his first outing in more than six months. He flashed some potential downstate late last year, and he gets Lasix for the first time here.

R9

Kay Cup (MTO)
Classic Q
Play With Fire

#5 CLASSIC Q (2-1): My analysis of the Grade 3 Lake George boils down to four simple words, which are, “lone speed, inner turf.” I’ve seen too many races the last several years to go against horses that fit that profile, and this one may also be the one to beat on pure form, too; #10 PLAY WITH FIRE (4-1): Was a half-length behind my top pick in the Wild Applause last time out and won the Hilltop at Pimlico two back. It seems like she’s coming to hand for Chad Brown, and she’s a major player despite a less-than-ideal post position; #8 ATERRADORA (10-1): Merits a look underneath at a price considering who she’s been running against. She was fourth behind Nitrogen two back, then ran fourth behind a next-out winner in the Grade 3 Regret. She’s got some tactical speed, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s up a bit closer early on.

R10

Sovereignty
Hill Road
Baeza

#5 SOVEREIGNTY (2/5): Is at the top of the 3-year-old division and will be an odds-on favorite in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. He showed a bit more tactical speed in winning the Belmont, and such a trip could also materialize here, which would put him in prime position; #4 HILL ROAD (12-1): Was fifth in the Belmont but won the Grade 3 Peter Pan two back and gets Irad Ortiz Jr. in this spot. He finished just three lengths behind this race’s second choice that day, so he really doesn’t need to move forward that much to factor in the exotics at a big price; #1 BAEZA (3-1): Chased my top pick twice this spring and was second to Journalism in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. He stacks up well on figures, but he’s never hit me as a “win” type, and the maiden race he won hasn’t aged well. If he’s the “wise guy” horse, I think he’ll be an underlay.

R11

Nonna Lynne
Hello Beauty
De Paz entry

#6 NONNA LYNNE (6-1): Came back running when second here last month in her first try since September. She didn’t have much pace to run at, but she closed anyway and nearly got the money despite an unlucky trip. Further improvement would make the morning line a significant overlay; #9 HELLO BEAUTY (5/2): Merits respect coming in to face New York-breds, but I have a few doubts. I didn’t think her last race was that strong, and she hasn’t really shown an ability to pass others. Maybe the class drop wakes her up, but I’ll take a mild stand against her; DE PAZ ENTRY (6-1): #1 NIGHT JASMINE makes some sense, especially if she can overcome her gate issues, but I actually prefer #1A JUST ONE MORE, who needs a scratch to run. She ran a big one when second at this level downstate, and perhaps she’s coming to hand midway through her 4-year-old season.

R12

Dark Devil (MTO)
Fateful Lightning
Captcha

#7 FATEFUL LIGHTNING (2-1): Is a logical favorite in the Saturday nightcap, where he drops in class for trainer Brad Cox. His two-back effort was very good, and he probably went too far when fifth last time out going a marathon distance downstate; #3 CAPTCHA (15-1): Hasn’t run since January, but this barn has come into Saratoga on fire and there are some things to like. He’s been gelded, he adds blinkers, and the race he ran at Gulfstream produced several next-out winners; #10 HEDGE THE RISK (9/2): Has a history of finding trouble, but drops in class second off the bench for Chad Brown. That’s a very powerful move, and while the post position is an issue, a step forward isn’t out of the question, and if that happens, he’ll be a major player.