BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $941

My podcast, “Drank’n Champagne,” is off this week, but I’ll be hopping on the On the Wrong Lead network’s weekly live stream Thursday night. We’re planning to look at several races on Saturday’s Whitney Day program, and it’s always a blast being able to talk shop and engage with people live on the air.

If you haven’t already subscribed to the On the Wrong Lead YouTube channel, go do that. We’ve got a bunch of stuff available on a weekly basis, and these are good guys that are responsible for one of the best stories I have from my wedding last month. If you ever run into me, ask about the tie clip!

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Pedigree play Lima Lima did no running in the sixth. I dropped $32 after scratches.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll zero in on the ninth, the John Morrissey, where I really like #5 THE WINE STEWARD. I’ll keep it simple with a $40 win bet in that one and hope we get the 6-1 morning line price (or something close to it).

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: The Wine Steward, Race 9
Longshot: Credit Risk, Race 6

R1

The Obliterator (MTO)
Minorinconvenience
Honoree

#3 MINORINCONVENIENCE (10-1): Gets a tepid nod in the first of several wide-open races for 2-year-olds on this Thursday card. Someone somewhere thought this colt could run first time out, as he was a 7/5 favorite. I think there’s a chance he needed that effort, and his pedigree says he should stretch out; #5 HONOREE (5/2): Didn’t do much running first time out, but that race was rained off the turf, and his pedigree is turf through and through. This sure seems to be what he wants to do, and John Velazquez sees fit to ride back at second asking; #4 TWIRLING LAD (4-1): Goes out for a barn whose firsters often need a race, but he’s bred well and has been working steadily. He’s by Twirling Candy and boasts a stamina-heavy female pedigree that includes second dam Caroline Thomas, a Grade 2 winner.

R2

Whatarewedoing (MTO)
Devilish Grin
Dolce Vino

#4 DEVILISH GRIN (7/2): Rallied to be beaten less than a length in her unveiling, which came in a race without much early speed. Still, she managed to pass horses late, which isn’t easy for first-time starters to do. A step forward would make her the one to beat; #2 DOLCE VINO (9/2): Also makes her second start, and she goes to the turf after finishing third on dirt earlier this month. Her pedigree says she should move up on the grass, and the addition of blinkers could keep her focused; #6 GREAT ACTRESS (6-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits and should be forwardly placed early on. She’s also eligible to improve, especially for a barn whose horses sometimes move forward after a start or two.

R3

That’s Funny
Lady Orient
D’s a Rock

#5 THAT’S FUNNY (9/2): Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment, and this seems like what she wants to do. She was third in a fast race for the level two starts ago, and there certainly appears to be enough early speed in here to set up for her late kick; #7 LADY ORIENT (5/2): Will likely go off favored for a high-percentage barn, but I have some doubts. She takes a big drop in here, and while the class relief could wake her up, she doesn’t tower over this group on speed figures. At her likely price, I’ll take a mild stand against her; #4 D’S A ROCK (7/2): Has won three in a row at Finger Lakes and tries tougher competition here. She’s shown some versatility in central New York, and she wasn’t embarrassed in a pair of tries against New York-bred stakes horses late last year.

R4

Sailaway
Carolina Smokeshow
Spirit of Esther

#3 SAILAWAY (4-1): Drops in class for this one and didn’t sit her desired trip when far, far back on the turf last time out. She wants to be forward, which is a good thing coming out of the Wilson chute. Furthermore, jockey Jose Ortiz likely had several options, and he lands here; #4 CAROLINA SMOKESHOW (4/5): Takes a big drop in search of her first win since late last year, but while she may win at a very short price and make me feel silly, I can’t back her on top. She hasn’t shown much early speed in most of her starts, and in fact, she’s broken badly in her last two outings. At odds-on, she’s a play-against; #7 SPIRIT OF ESTHER (5-1): Comes back to the Wilson chute, the site of her lone career win to date. I don’t think she beat much that day, and the post position is a problem, but she’s another class-dropper who’s certainly been facing far better competition.

R5

Goichman entry
Ryan Elizabeth
Neshika

GOICHMAN ENTRY (7/5): I much prefer #1A MARIA CALLAS, who debuts for Chad Brown and has a monster bottom-side pedigree. Her dam is kin to Grade 1 winner Noble Bird and stakes winner Brother Pat, among others, and that gate work on July 13th hints that she’s got some talent; #4 RYAN ELIZABETH (7/2): Sold for just $30,000 at auction despite a pretty big turf pedigree. Her dam, Abaco, was a serious turf distaffer in her day, and second and third dams Cat Cay and Cadillacing were both graded stakes winners. Frankie Dettori sees fit to hop aboard; #3 NESHIKA (10-1): Was one-paced in her debut downstate, but I think she’ll move forward here at a bit of a price. Her pedigree says she wants to go longer, and this barn’s first-time starters usually aren’t fully cranked.

R6

Run On States
Credit Risk
Avery’s Wonderland

#8 RUN ON STATES (5/2): Did everything but win in her unveiling at Ellis Park, which came against open company. She fell by just a neck that day and comes in to face New York-bred competition, which may represent a class drop; #1 CREDIT RISK (20-1): Has a sneaky pedigree, being kin to Bellacose, who was a massive first-out winner. Her second and third dam were both graded stakes winners, too, and there are a few workouts on her sheet that look solid; #4 AVERY’S WONDERLAND (8-1): Debuts for Rick Dutrow, whose barn has yet to get going at this stand. However, dam Liza Jambalaya is kin to Grade 1 winners Paulassilverlining and Dad’s Caps, and she attracts Joel Rosario for her first lifetime outing.

R7

Geez Eloise (MTO)
Numero Seis
Linarite

#9 NUMERO SEIS (8/5): Takes a drop for Joe Sharp, who’s been one of the hottest trainers on the grounds to this point in the meet. First-call pilot Jose Ortiz will be aboard, and she hits me as a major wire-to-wire threat from the outside post; #4 LINARITE (9/2): Has hit the board in all six prior starts at the Spa and goes first off the claim for Mike Miceli, who doesn’t claim many horses but is very solid with new acquisitions. Her two-back win was a good one, and she’d benefit from my top pick getting tested early; #3 QUICK POWER NAP (6-1): Has shown an aversion to getting her picture taken, as she’s 0-for-12 since the start of 2024. However, she had an excuse last time out, when she went very, very wide and lost by just over a length. Prat rides back, and we’ll see if she can save any ground.

R8

Khafre
Kantarmaci entry
Royal Tryst

#4 KHAFRE (8/5): Appears to be the main speed and could capitalize on a front-running trip beneath Dylan Davis. Linda Rice claimed him last time out, and her stellar record with new acquisitions is well-established; KANTARMACI ENTRY (7/5): I prefer #1A BOLD ENDEAVOR, who just missed when last seen at Aqueduct in April. He’ll make his 50th career start in this spot, and if he sits the kind of stalking trip we’ve seen him sit in the past, he’ll have every chance at his 11th lifetime score; #3 ROYAL TRYST (9/2): Has shown his preferred running style many times. He’s a deep closer who needs a lot of pace in front of him, but if he gets that and a wet track, he’ll have every chance to spring a mild upset.

R9

The Wine Steward
Whatchatalkinabout
Bank Frenzy

#5 THE WINE STEWARD (6-1): Did no running in the Grade 3 Steve Sexton Mile at Lone Star, but he drops in to face New York-breds for the first time in a while in the John Morrissey. Draw lines through that race and last year’s Grade 1 Belmont (where he was just hopelessly overmatched), and his sheet looks far, far better; #9 WHATCHATALKINABOUT (2-1): Eked out a win in the Grade 3 John Nerud back in May and has been working forwardly at Keeneland for Wesley Ward. On figures, he’s the one to beat, but it’s worth noting that he’s never gone seven furlongs before, and this is a pretty strong field for the level; #2 BANK FRENZY (3-1): Has won five of six and has done some of his best running at Saratoga. His best effort would give him a big chance here, but he’s 0-for-2 at this quirky seven-furlong distance and may prefer a two-turn trip.

R10

She’s Cool (MTO)
Annelle
Bread to Run

#9 ANNELLE (6-1): Gets another chance from me in the Thursday finale after misfiring here on Independence Day. That race came against a better group, and the winner, Awesome Czech, is very good over this turf course. She’ll likely get a pace to run at, and two-back win rider Nik Juarez ships in; #10 BREAD TO RUN (8-1): Hasn’t run badly in her three turf routes to date, including a two-back score at Churchill. The post position isn’t ideal, but two-back win rider Luis Saez hops back aboard, and she’s another that should get a solid setup; #5 DYNAMIC ACTRESS (10-1): Looks like the main speed in this event and attracts top gate rider Kendrick Carmouche. Her races this past winter at Tampa were strong, and if she can find that form here, she could lead this bunch a long way.