BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $769.25

Matthew DeSantis, who does a ton of fantastic work with NYRA Bets, is a good friend of mine. He’s sharp, his content is insightful, and horse racing’s a better sport with him involved and actively helping to promote it. If you’re not watching his videos or reading his analysis, you should be.

These beliefs, all genuine, serve as a prelude to this statement: If any rain, at all, whatsoever, falls on Saratoga between now and the end of the weekend, it is entirely his fault.

He posted a message on X spotlighting a picture-perfect weather forecast through the weekend, which, to steal a phrase from “The West Wing,” tempts the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing. As any good horseplayer knows, doing this is very, very dangerous, and the weather gods immediately responded with, as WNYT’s Christina Talamo reported, lightning and storms over the nearby Great Sacandaga Lake.

(Love you, buddy.)

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Running second and third as much as I have been is exhausting. I dropped $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the first half of the card, where I like two non-favorites quite a bit. I’ll have $15 win bets on #3 BILLIONAIRES ROW in the second and #2 VALENZAN DAY in the fourth, and I’ll single them in a 50-cent early Pick Four starting in the second that goes as follows: 3 with 2,3,4,6,8,9 with 2 with 1,2,7,9,11,12 (don’t forget about the AE’s in the fifth, folks!).

TOTAL WAGERED: $48.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Valenzan Day, Race 4
Longshot: Antietam, Race 10

R1

Max Money
Napoleon Solo
Neigh Baby

#3 MAX MONEY (9/2): Debuted with a decent third last month and has since been working very well for Mike Maker, whose horses tend to need a race or two to get going. I’m expecting significant improvement, and that may be enough to get him the money here; #2 NAPOLEON SOLO (5/2): Debuts for Chad Summers after a series of impressive drills. Summers isn’t known for first-out success, but if you’ve bet on his last 28 debuting runners as of this writing, you’ve made a flat-bet profit; #7 NEIGH BABY (7/2): Makes his debut for Jeremiah Englehart, whose first-out runners can be well-meant. His July 11th work hints that he may have some potential, and his outside post could be a plus.

R2

Tactical Trackstar (MTO)
Billionaires Row
Alexis Zorba

#3 BILLIONAIRES ROW (5/2): Didn’t break well in his local debut, but he still ran well enough to be third that day (beaten just a length). If he’s able to break cleanly here, he could sit an ideal stalking trip, and he doesn’t need to move forward much to be a major player; #6 ALEXIS ZORBA (8/5): Was second in the same race my top pick exits and may be favored, but I have some doubts. He’s 1-for-18 lifetime, with eight seconds. I just don’t think he wants to win, and that makes his likely price an underlay; #2 EPITAPH (8-1): Has shown plenty of early zip and went wire-to-wire at this route last summer for his lone career score to date. I think he could be the controlling speed in here, and that he could lead them a long way at a bit of a price.

R3

Fancy Footwork (MTO)
Bisclavret
Social Scene

#2 BISCLAVRET (6-1): Debuts for George Weaver, who’s enjoyed plenty of success with debuting turfers at this meet to date. She’s a full sister to one 2-year-old stakes winner, Howling Time, and a half-sister to another, Air Recruit; #6 SOCIAL SCENE (5-1): Commanded a hefty sum at auction overseas last fall and has a strong turf pedigree. Her second dam, Lillie Langtry, is the dam of three European heavyweights (Minding, Empress Josephine, and Tuesday); #9 SWEET LITTLE LILA (8-1): Is the daughter of a mare who placed in multiple Grade 1 races going long on the turf. The outside post is a question mark, but she’s bred to go two turns, and this is a barn that’s very sharp with first-time starters.

R4

Valenzan Day
Kantarmaci entry
Tiberius Mercurius

#2 VALENZAN DAY (2-1): Is a one-mile specialist, with five wins in nine starts at this trio. He went wire-to-wire at this route last summer, gets an advantageous post out of the Wilson chute, and attracts Irad Ortiz Jr., who likely had several options; KANTARMACI ENTRY (7/5): On speed figures, both #1 BREW PUB and #1A WINTER’S GHOST make sense. However, they’re a combined 0-for-15 this year and have had plenty of chances at this level. At the likely price, I’m looking elsewhere; #3 TIBERIUS MERCURIUS (6-1): Is another that hasn’t won in a while, but he does add blinkers and has run well at this one-mile distance in the past. Beyond the top two, there just isn’t much depth here. Someone has to run third, and it may as well be this one.

R5

Cristobal (AE)
Diliello (AE)
Truman’s Commander

#12 CRISTOBAL (9/5): Needs two scratches to run but merits plenty of respect if he gets the chance. He was wide throughout in his debut and that almost certainly cost him. A cleaner trip and experience could both move him forward; #11 DILIELLO (2-1): Is one ahead of my top pick on the AE list and is another that’s worth a long look. He was second in the race Cristobal exits and is also a candidate to move forward with a start under his belt; #7 TRUMAN’S COMMANDER (3-1): Debuts for Mark Casse and fetched a respectable $50,000 at auction despite a pretty modest pedigree. The two-back work on July 17th indicates he may have some talent, and the presence of Jose Ortiz may also be a clue.

R6

Escape Hall
Empires King
Jolted

#2 ESCAPE HALL (9/2): Has been working very, very well for George Weaver and looks primed to run a big one in his unveiling. His female family includes second dam Harbor Mist, a stakes winner who threw, among others, 2-year-old stakes winner Crazy Hot. I’m not sure we’ll get the 9/2 morning line, but I sure hope we do; #6 EMPIRES KING (2-1): Ran into next-out stakes winner Ewing in his debut and was a distant second behind that one. This restricted event is a class drop on paper, and it’s certainly possible he moves forward at second asking; #7 JOLTED (6-1): Is by the speedy Instagrand and out of a mare who’s a full sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Zada Belle. The works are solid enough, and the pedigree certainly says she’ll be precocious.

R7

Duration (MTO)
Perretti
Prariedale

#3 PERRETTI (6-1): Hasn’t been out of the barn since November but returns for Phil Antonacci, who knows how to get comebackers ready to go. Furthermore, he looks like the lone speed on the inner turf, which is always dangerous. If he’s ready, he’s a wire-to-wire candidate; #4 PRARIEDALE (6-1): Sees my top pick’s layoff and raises it considerably, having been out of action since October…of 2023. He closed to be fourth in a paceless race that day, and while it’s anyone’s guess if he’ll be ready to go, perhaps it’s telling they’ve stuck with him as long as they have; #8 BLAST FURNACE (4-1): Suffered a tough beat last time out, when he got the wrong end of a photo finish against maiden claimers downstate. This is probably a tougher group, but he more than fits on figures, and it’s worth noting that that effort was his first-ever turf route.

R8

Bernietakescharge (MTO)
Be Your Best
Deep Satin

#1 BE YOUR BEST (9/5): Took advantage of a picture-perfect trip to take the Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita for her fourth graded stakes win since November. There’s a fair amount of speed signed on in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa, but she’s shown she doesn’t necessarily need the lead, which could prove very valuable; #9 DEEP SATIN (5-1): Loves this turf course and put it all together to win a division of the De La Rose last time out. This is a class test, to be sure, but she’s shown she can sit back and make up ground, and that’s a decided advantage; #3 OZARA (6-1): Won the other division of the De La Rose and is another that’s shown she can pass others after turning for home. Given that I think this race shape may favor closers, I can’t throw her out.

R9

Storm the Streets
Consider It Done
Uncle Jim

#1 STORM THE STREETS (5/2): Won two in a row before a near-miss at Ellis Park last time out and feels like the one to beat in here. His dirt sprints are, by and large, sharp efforts, and when Irad Ortiz Jr. rides for this barn, he’s usually on live horses; #2 CONSIDER IT DONE (7/2): Drops in class after a clunker last time out, but he won two and three back (including against optional claimers in May at Aqueduct). He may be better in the mud, but it’s also possible Linda Rice has him back at the correct level; #6 UNCLE JIM (4-1): Was a solid winner two back downstate, and it’s possible he detests off tracks. His sheet looks much better with the last-out and three-back clunkers crossed out, and if the track’s dry Friday, we could see a bounce-back performance.

R10

Antietam
Worthy Charge (MTO)
Johny’s Rendezvous

#5 ANTIETAM (9/2): Tries turf for the first time in the Friday nightcap but is bred to absolutely love it. This son of Curlin is a half to European champion Air Force Blue, and if he’s ready to run off the bench, I think he could show he’s wanted the grass all along; #3 JOHNY’S RENDEZVOUS (7/2): Has proven to be a pretty tough horse to ride, but he also looks like the main speed in this two-turn, inner-turf event. As we’ve seen all summer, that’s a good thing, and if he settles down, he could have every chance to lead them a long way; #8 WICKED IMPROBABLE (6-1): Closed at first asking to be beaten less than three lengths in a race that didn’t have much early speed signed on. This barn’s firsters sometimes need a race to get going, and Junior Alvarado stays on for this one’s second lifetime outing.