SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll for August 10th, 2025

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $859.50

My once-a-year reminder about a unique-to-NYRA wager comes today. The multi-race exotic menu can seem overwhelming at times, and there’s one bet that can get lost in the shuffle. That’s the Grand Slam, which isn’t a great play some days but is a fantastic wager on others. For those unfamiliar, it’s a four-race bet where you must pick at least one horse that finishes third or better in the first three legs, then pick the winner of the fourth leg.

I love playing it from time to time, provided certain parameters are followed. First, have a horse you like enough in the payoff leg to single. Next, don’t go greater than three-deep in any of the first three legs. Going against either of those principles means you aren’t getting the most from your bet (since you’re assured of a lot of losing combinations). If you can play a skinny ticket with a single on the end, though, it can act as an enhanced-value win bet.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Most of my action got cancelled when Trust Fund scratched out of the opener. I was left with a $5 double, which went up in smoke in the fourth.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: With a lead-in like the one I wrote, you have to know where I’m going. My $5 Grand Slam ticket starting in the sixth goes as follows: 4,6,12 with 3 with 1,4,8 with 9. The best-case scenario is that a few prices hit the board in the first three legs, which will allow me to potentially extract value from #9 GOVERNOR SAM in the ninth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $45.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Mr. Ripple, Race 2
Longshot: Big Brown Delivers, Race 6

R1

Chillax
St. Elias entry
Fun to Tap

#4 CHILLAX (5/2): Gets a tepid nod in an opener out of the chute where I simply don’t have a strong opinion. However, he ran well when second behind a perfect-trip winner last time out going a bit longer, and I tend to prefer horses cutting back to the chute over horses stretching out; ST. ELIAS ENTRY (2-1): #1A WORTHY CHARGE is the one people will bet, and he ran well to be third beaten just a length in his unveiling. Chad Brown has exceptional success with horses adding distance, and he’ll have every right to improve, but the outside post is not ideal; #3 FUN TO TAP (7/2): Has been off nine months, but ran well as a 2-year-old and adds Lasix for his return. He’s been working steadily for Todd Pletcher, attracts Irad Ortiz Jr., and is bred to get better as he gets older.

R2

Mr. Ripple
Le Gris
Leftembehind

#2 MR. RIPPLE (5/2): Got his first win since 2022 with a runaway score at Finger Lakes, and he runs for a tag for the first time ever in this spot. This barn has caught fire of late, and it’s possible the addition of blinkers last time out woke him up; #1 LE GRIS (2-1): Takes an absolutely massive class drop and may be favored, but I have some doubts. His last win came in February of 2024, in a race rained off the turf, and his last-out effort was a real clunker; #6 LEFTEMBEHIND (9/2): Is another that hasn’t won in a while and takes a drop. However, he’s a closer in a race with some early speed signed on, which makes him a candidate to be going the right way as the field turns for home.

R3

Caribbean Wind (MTO)
Tap to Mischief
Waralo

#4 TAP TO MISCHIEF (7/2): Comes back to the turf, and while he didn’t run badly on dirt last time out, this feels like the surface he wants. His debut going short on turf was very good, and he may have moved forward since that July 2024 effort; #5 WARALO (2-1): Is 2-for-2 since going to the grass in May and figures to be prominent early. He may not be alone up top, but he did show an ability to stalk a bit in his two-back score downstate; #6 IRISH GENT (3-1): Hasn’t raced since November of 2023, when he showed some precocity before going to the sidelines. A return to that form makes him a player, but this barn keeping him at Monmouth leading up to his return is a genuine question mark.

R4

Final Score
Boss Henry
Heeere’s Johnny

#5 FINAL SCORE (5/2): Made up a lot of ground at first asking, which is sometimes a difficult thing for 2-year-olds to do. That was supposed to be a turf race. He gets on grass here and also stretches out to two turns, which his pedigree says he should love; #2 BOSS HENRY (9/2): Debuts for Chad Brown, who’s on a real hot streak with 2-year-olds on the turf. His dam was stakes-placed on the lawn, and offspring of Gun Runner can usually run on anything, so he merits respect; #3 HEEERE’S JOHNNY (3-1): Probably lost all chance at the break in his off-the-turf debut, and his pedigree says he wants the green stuff. Given experience and the move to what feels like his desired surface, I’m expecting a step forward at second asking.

R5

Essential Coffee
Memorized
Carmel Coast

#5 ESSENTIAL COFFEE (4-1): Was DQ’d after hitting the wire clear by eight in her debut, then folded after contesting fast fractions in the Debutante. I think you can argue the last-out clunker was a bounce, and that a return to her first-out form would make her a handful; #4 MEMORIZED (3-1): Has reason to be a runner, being a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Zandon, among others. She sold for $900,000 at Keeneland last September, and while the pedigree says she wants longer than this distance, she’s a contender if Brown has her ready to run; #3 CARMEL COAST (5-1): Isn’t just a hunch play from here in Northern California. She’s another with strong bloodlines, and she fired a bullet two works back on July 28th. My one hesitation is that the bottom side of her pedigree hints she may be at her best on turf, not dirt.

R6

Spirit of the Law
Big Brown Delivers
Powered by Coal

#12 SPIRIT OF THE LAW (5/2): Runs for a tag for the first time, and while the far outside post is a problem, he should get an ideal setup. He wants pace in front of him, he should get it, and he feels like one of only a few that’s shown he can pass others late; #6 BIG BROWN DELIVERS (15-1): Merits a long look at a price second off the bench. He didn’t break well in his return, but still salvaged fourth behind a horse that beat winners at next asking. I think he moves forward here, and if he does, he’ll have a shot to light up the tote; #4 POWERED BY COAL (9/2): Took a big step forward last time out, when he led most of the way and got passed late. He seems to have responded since a drop in class two back, and the rider switch to Irad Ortiz Jr. is a big one.

R7

My Two Sophia’s
Valentine Gift
Rodriguez entry

#3 MY TWO SOPHIA’S (2-1): Came flying late last time out and missed by just a neck. Irad hops aboard for a barn he doesn’t ride for much, and the new dimension she showed last time out should help given an abundance of early speed on paper; #9 VALENTINE GIFT (5-1): Comes back to the claiming ranks here, and she didn’t run badly last time out against state-bred allowance foes. She rallied to be fourth that day despite a poor break, and while she hasn’t won in a while, she’s another that figures to benefit from the likely race shape; RODRIGUEZ ENTRY (6-1): I prefer #1A MOONLIT WEEKEND, though #1 DANNEEL has a chance to run well, too. The former was a two-back winner downstate and returns to what’s probably the correct level.

R8

Cut the Cord (MTO)
Conman
Ocala Dream

#8 CONMAN (2-1): Takes a big drop for aggressive connections that have run him against open company for the past two years. At his best, he was a stakes winner at Woodbine, and his last-out effort saw him finish fourth behind a next-out winner in a swiftly-run event; #4 OCALA DREAM (12-1): Returns to what’s clearly his preferred surface and could factor in this one at a price. He returned to this level two back, but both of his last two races have been rained off the turf. Assuming this stays on the lawn, I think we’ll see the best of him here, and that’s pretty good; #1 SLAPINTHEFACE (5-1): Tried open company last time out, and in addition to probably being outclassed, he didn’t benefit from the wide trip he got. He should get a chance to save ground from the rail here, and regular rider Manny Franco is back on.

R9

Governor Sam
Gabaldon
Ancient World

#9 GOVERNOR SAM (1-1): May be the biggest favorite of the day, and for good reason. He comes in off of an excellent score in the Grade 3 Quick Call at this route, a race where he showed he doesn’t necessarily need the lead. I can’t go against him in the Grade 3 Mahony; #8 GABALDON (8-1): Hasn’t run since March, when he did a lot of heavy lifting up front and finished third in the Texas Glitter. He’s been gelded since that race, and there’s a chance he finds himself on the lead going into the turn; #7 ANCIENT WORLD (10-1): Hadn’t run a bad one before his clunker in the Maxfield at Churchill. He tries turf for the first time, but he sports a pretty flashy turf work on July 20th that indicates he may like it. At a minimum, he should be going well late.

R10

Tuscan Gold
Chileno
Pandagate

#1 TUSCAN GOLD (7/2): Was fourth in last year’s Grade 1 Preakness as a 3-year-old before going to the sidelines, but he did not run well in his 2025 debut. However, I think he needed that race, and that he’ll benefit from getting back to two turns in the Sunday nightcap; #7 CHILENO (6-1): Has run second three times this season, and he’s run well at Saratoga in the past. He’s shown he can go two turns effectively, and he’s got the tactical speed to sit an ideal stalking trip; #6 PANDAGATE (4-1): Gets back to the track for the first time since September, and his best is quite good. He’s won three stakes races against New York-breds, but I question if two turns is truly his best game, and this is far from a bad field for the level.

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