SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll for August 20th, 2025

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $819.50

The Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, or HISA, has done more right than some want to admit. A simple glance at falling fatality rates nationwide can confirm this. However, my takeaway from several inquiries, objections, and disqualifications last week is that the organization needs to do more in some respects. I’d argue that this entire process falls under “integrity” and “safety,” and that very few people ever really know what to expect when lights start flashing on the tote board.

Please don’t see this as me bashing stewards. I’m not doing that. In fact, I think NYRA stewards got all three calls right last week. However, would stewards in other states have acted similarly in these situations? There’s no way to know for sure, and horse racing fans have been crying out for consistency and transparency for years.

Why not issue the clearest possible answer to the question, “what is a foul that merits a disqualification?” Such an action would provide a single, public, consistent set of rules. Perhaps there’s no perfect response to that question, but one answer for all to follow would at least make sure we know the lay of the land. Given the power HISA has, this feels doable.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Miztertonic scratched, which cancelled my action.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: Let’s go to the third, where I think #7 CHALKY WHITE will move forward considerably on turf. I’ll have a $40 win bet on him.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Chalky White, Race 3
Longshot: Signal Chat, Race 6

R1

Hidden Path
Zarak the Brave
Givemefive

#2 HIDDEN PATH (10-1): Merits a long look at a price in the Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard. His win at this route last time out was sharp, and his lone clunker over fences was excusable given it was his first try in over eight months. Further improvement third off the bench would give him a big shot; #6 ZARAK THE BRAVE (4-1): Returned to form last time out with a third in the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick. The top two finishers from that event don’t show up here, and while this is far from a soft spot, a repeat of that effort could get him the money; #1 GIVEMEFIVE (2-1): Merits respect coming over from England (as a note, if you have Brisnet PP’s, they won’t have all of his races), but I don’t think his form towers over that of his rivals here. Given that he’ll carry 158 pounds in his first try over a course like this one, I can’t back him on top at his likely price.

R2

R Disaster
Legadema
Striker Has Dial

#3 R DISASTER (3/5): Did everything but win in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss, when she set a fast pace and was beaten a half-length by a longshot. She takes a significant class drop, gets to run with Lasix, and will be an overwhelming favorite for good reason; #1 LEGADEMA (8-1): Makes her first start in 11 months and showed plenty of form last season. She’s a stakes winner with an ability to stalk and pounce, and while the layoff is a legitimate question mark, she could present some value underneath if she’s ready to go; #4 STRIKER HAS DIAL (5/2): Threw in a rare clunker in the Honorable Miss and gets to run with Lasix again, which she should appreciate. I think she may prefer running downstate to here, but if she can find the early-season form she flashed, she could factor.

R3

Chalky White
Lexington Pike
Mr Browns Town

#7 CHALKY WHITE (3-1): Has a bottom-side pedigree that screams turf, and he finally gets to run on it here. He’s got a considerable experience edge over most of his rivals, and it doesn’t hurt that he looks like he could be the lone speed in this two-turn turf route; #8 LEXINGTON PIKE (5/2): Seems to be training well for Todd Pletcher ahead of his unveiling, and the presence of Irad Ortiz Jr. is noteworthy. There’s not a lot in his pedigree that says he wants the grass, though, and this barn also sends out #5 MISSING BRIAN, which is curious; #3 MR BROWNS TOWN (7/2): Merits respect first time out for Chad Brown, and his pedigree says he wants every bit of two turns. The two-back gate drill is a strong one, but I’m wondering why he’s entered for a $75,000 tag first time out.

R4

Acoustic Ave
Amundson
Stewie

#1 ACOUSTIC AVE (9/5): Ran well to be second last time out and seems to do his best running at the Spa. He’s got two wins in three starts since being claimed by Linda Rice downstate, and he’s a candidate to sit an ideal stalking trip in this one; #6 AMUNDSON (5-1): Didn’t break well last time out and didn’t do much running after that, so I’m inclined to draw a line through it in the form. He’s a 17-time winner with four victories over this track, and a return to form first off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci wouldn’t be out of the question; #4 STEWIE (4-1): Got his nose down last time out against state-breds and takes a bit of a class jump to run here. However, this small barn has yet to finish worse than second at the meet, and he may be the one they have to run down turning for home.

R5

Willpowered
Oat Coutour
Spirit of the Law

#8 WILLPOWERED (4-1): Sold for $200,000 back in 2023 and debuts for Miguel Clement, who’s figured out how to get first-time starters ready to go of late. He’s a half-brother to six winners, and he might not have to be much to make his unveiling a winning one; #6 OAT COUTOUR (5-1): Was second behind a perfect-trip winner last time out and leaves the maiden claiming ranks for this event. Given both that race and this one are for state-breds, that’s not a massive class jump, and further improvement for a horse that seemed to like two turns last time out isn’t out of the question; #3 SPIRIT OF THE LAW (3-1): Was claimed by Mike Maker last time out and figures to be rolling late. This barn does well with new acquisitions, but he’s had a lot of chances and it’s not like there’s a ton of speed signed on here, so I’m not overly enthusiastic given his likely short price.

R6

Hot Currency (MTO)
Ticket to Ride
Signal Chat

#6 TICKET TO RIDE (5/2): Has moved to the Saffie Joseph barn and merits respect after a tough-trip third last time out. That day’s runner-up came back to win, Irad hops aboard here, and she looks like a logical candidate to move forward considerably; #10 SIGNAL CHAT (15-1): Didn’t draw a great post in her debut, but her bottom-side pedigree screams that she may be a solid turf horse. She’s kin to a debut winner, her dam placed in multiple stakes races at similar routes, and I think she could be ready to go at a big price; #3 LAST CALL JENNA (3-1): Is kin to eight winners, including a few stakes-quality runners, and has a right to be a runner herself. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride, and my only question is if turf is really what she wants.

R7

Passing Game
Notah
Flat On

#2 PASSING GAME (5/2): Goes back to what’s probably the right level for Linda Rice after a clunker first off the claim at Ellis Park. That was over a very sloppy track against a better group, though, and his two-back effort for this tag at Churchill was very good; #5 NOTAH (4-1): Was a good second last time out off the layoff, and I liked him quite a bit when he was entered in a race going shorter earlier in the meet. He figures to be going well late and has a chance, but I wonder if this distance is a bit longer than what he wants; #4 FLAT ON (8-1): Has run well here twice this summer and was second at this route last month. On paper, this is a jump up in class, but I don’t think this came up particularly strong for the level and Kendrick Carmouche has been riding very, very well.

R8

Loco Abarrio (MTO)
Belouni
Johny’s Fireball

#12 BELOUNI (9/2): Is a tepid top pick in a wide-open turf route. He capitalized on the drop in class last time out, and that day’s runner-up came back to win on Sunday. The far-outside post isn’t ideal, but I do think he’ll have plenty of pace to close into, and that should help him; #3 JOHNY’S FIREBALL (4-1): Drops in class for this one and could sit a perfect stalking trip just off of a contested pace. His two-back effort, where he ran second in a swiftly-run race for the level at Churchill, was a very strong one, and if he can channel that form here, he could have a big shot; #11 IRWIN (5-1): Makes his first start since October, but does so for an astute barn that’s had some success at this stand. Frankie Dettori will be aboard, and like my top pick, he figures to benefit from the likely race shape.

R9

Sod Siren
New Attitude
Bolt House

#9 SOD SIREN (6-1): Is bred up and down for the grass and is a candidate to improve after a first-out dud over the synthetic at Gulfstream. Irad will be aboard in the Wednesday nightcap, and any sort of a move forward could be enough in this wide-open turf sprint; #7 NEW ATTITUDE (8-1): Cuts back in distance and adds blinkers first off the claim here, and she may have been compromised by wide trips in each of her first two starts. She ran into a runaway winner first time out, too, and perhaps the most recent effort was a bounce off of that performance; #3 BOLT HOUSE (6-1): Drops in class for Bill Mott, whose numbers with maiden claimers doing that are exceptional. She also adds Lasix, which could prove powerful, and the most recent work downstate hints that she’s moved forward off of a disappointing debut.

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