BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $985.50

As Richard Migliore said on Thursday’s NYRA broadcast, when you accumulate seconds and thirds at Saratoga, it’s frustrating. He was referring to jockeys, but as handicappers, we’ve all had bouts of the dreaded disease known as seconditis, and mine has been present since the start of the meet.

It’s gotten so severe that I got a text message from a fellow Pink Sheet handicapper after I shockingly won a photo finish with Miztertonic in Thursday’s fourth race. It’d be nice to finish strong and put a bow on a summer that’s been…challenging, to put it mildly, for several reasons.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: This section got a shelter from seconditis, as best bet Perfect Shot never looked like a loser in the eighth. $40 in bets returned an even $206, thanks to a $30 win bet and a winning $5 exacta with runner-up Catherine Wheel.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: We’ll go to the seventh, where I really like #4 SYSTEMIC CHANGE and I’ll maintain Thursday’s betting strategy. I’ll have a $30 win bet on that one and key him in $5 exactas with #1 MARGIN OF AIR and #5 MANTA REY.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Systemic Change, Race 7
Longshot: Brocknardini, Race 9

R1

Fourth and One (MTO)
Cristobal
Three Thirteen

#7 CRISTOBAL (4/5): Didn’t run badly in his debut, when he was wide and finished third last month. He adds blinkers at second asking, retains Flavien Prat, and looks tough to go against in the Friday lid-lifter; #4 THREE THIRTEEN (9/2): Set a fast pace in the same race my top pick exits and blew the turn before dropping out. He’ll likely be the one dictating terms early, and if he’s gained maturity, perhaps he could break through at second asking; #8 MAKE A PREDICTION (6-1): Was one paced in his debut for a barn whose first-time starters often need a race to get going. He was wide that day and is another that may move forward given a start under his belt.

R2

Bourbon Breeze
Tricky Temper
Princess Madison

#6 BOURBON BREEZE (4-1): Gets Lasix back after a pair of efforts against stakes company, and it’s not like she ran terribly against those foes. Her early-season races on Lasix were strong, and Irad Ortiz Jr., who likely had several options in this spot, lands here; #5 TRICKY TEMPER (9/5): Was a good second behind a much-the-best winner in a stakes race last time out, and she’s another dropping in class. Three of her four career wins have come at the Spa, and she won a New York-bred stakes race at this route last summer; #2 PRINCESS MADISON (7/2): Was probably too far back last time, when she finished a distant third after taking quite a bit of betting money. She wants to be close to the pace, and that’s a trip she should sit in this spot for a barn that’s started to heat up of late.

R3

Iron Orchard
Shakti
Angel Gift

#3 IRON ORCHARD (4/5): Never looked like a loser in her debut, which she won by more than five lengths with plenty in reserve. I’m not quite sure what she beat that day, but she’s been working well since and seems like the one to beat in the Seeking the Ante; #5 SHAKTI (7/2): Also went wire-to-wire in her unveiling, and that day’s runner-up came back to win at next asking. This barn’s first-time starters often need experience, but she seems pretty talented and could still have room to improve; #1 ANGEL GIFT (5-1): Didn’t draw a great post for her running style, but may be the lone closer in a race full of early speed. She was 2-1 in the Grade 3 Adirondack, where she may have lost all chance at the break, and perhaps a bounce-back effort is in the cards.

R4

Quick Hammer
Peek
Bold Endeavor

#7 QUICK HAMMER (2-1): Hasn’t run since an April clunker and returns for a bottom-level tag. His lone try at a mile was an impressive two-back score against what was probably a better group, and if he’s ready to go, he and Irad could be tough to beat; #1 PEEK (7/2): Was third at this route for a slightly higher tag last month and could appreciate the slight class drop. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back, and while the rail draw isn’t ideal, he has at least shown some speed; #4 BOLD ENDEAVOR (3-1): Was second at this level last month and cuts back to a distance where he’s recorded five wins and 16 top-three finishes in 24 of his 50 career outings. The new barn has struggled at this stand, but this 9-year-old gelding is ultra-consistent, and his usual effort would give him a chance in here.

R5

Rice entry
Dialbolico
Wecallemfuncoupons

RICE ENTRY (4/5): Both #2 TARPAULIN and #2B TIOTE could win this, and they make a powerful 1-2 punch. Both were claimed earlier this summer after less-than-ideal trips, and the Ortiz brothers see fit to ride; #4 DIALBOLICO (6-1): Didn’t run well first off the claim last time out, but he’s a closer and that race didn’t have much in the way of early speed. There is some of that signed on here, and he ran a few OK races downstate earlier this season; #5 WECALLEMFUNCOUPONS (8-1): Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment and drops down in class, both of which work in his favor. He had enough zip to break his maiden in a tough spot at Churchill way back when, and a Finger Lakes outfit bringing along the local rider always makes me look twice.

R6

Academia (MTO)
Amicable Farce
Actis

#6 AMICABLE FARCE (3-1): Debuts for Chad Brown and sold for $300,000 at Keeneland last year. This daughter of Not This Time is out of multiple stakes winner Rubilinda, a daughter of the great Frankel who won on debut. She’s bred to be both talented and ready to go at first asking and represents powerhouse connections; #3 ACTIS (8-1): Merits a look at a bit of a price after chasing a next-out stakes winner in her unveiling going shorter. Her pedigree says she wants this two-turn trip, as her dam has previously thrown two stakes winners that did their best work going long; #5 CELEBRITY WARRIOR (9/2): Makes her debut for Todd Pletcher and is another with plenty of bloodlines. Dam Guana has also thrown Rumble Inthejungle, a European 2-year-old that won a Group 3 and placed in a Group 1 as a juvenile.

R7

Systemic Change
Margin of Air
Manta Rey

#4 SYSTEMIC CHANGE (4-1): Exits a key race against better competition, one that was won by a solid horse in Gilmore and has already produced two next-out winners. There also seems to be a lot of early speed in here, which should produce a race shape friendly to his late-running style; #1 MARGIN OF AIR (3-1): Won at this level and route in July and was claimed by a sharp outfit that hits at a high clip with new acquisitions. Irad rides back, which is a plus, and while others in here may be quicker early, perhaps horse and rider can work out an ideal stalking trip; #5 MANTA REY (4-1): Hasn’t won in a while but ran well to be second last time out. Like my top pick, he’s a closer in a race that seems to boast a few who want to go early, so he should be going the right way late.

R8

Cagliostro
Money Supply
Mama’s Gold

I’ve only done this once this meet so far, but I can’t say I have a strong opinion here. This is a very deep, challenging event, one that prompted me to hit the “ALL” button on my podcast when analyzing the late Pick Four. If you’re playing multi-race exotics, go as deep as you can here.

R9

Brocknardini
Spinning Colors
Awesome Czech

#6 BROCKNARDINI (10-1): Put it all together last time out for her first win in quite a while, and I think her morning line price would make her an overlay in a strong rendition of the Yaddo. Early speed is sometimes scarce in turf routes, but there’s a fair bit in here, and if this one’s found her form, she could be ready to capitalize on the potential she’s flashed a few times; #4 SPINNING COLORS (7/2): Is one of a few that figure to be forward early on, and she’s gotten very good of late. She was a close-up second in a similar stakes race last time out behind a runner that won again at next asking, and of the likely pace factors, this is the one I most prefer; #2 AWESOME CZECH (6-1): Has three wins and a third in four local starts and is ultra-consistent. She found herself on the lead last time out, which isn’t common for her, but she won anyway over a horse that found the winner’s circle next time out.

R10

Alexis Zorba
Nano Man
Holding the Line

#4 ALEXIS ZORBA (7/2): Takes a big drop in the Friday finale after picking up minor awards in two prior local starts this summer. He’s just 1-for-19 with eight seconds, but this is a much, much weaker group than the ones he’s been running against, and his early speed makes him a legit wire-to-wire threat; #8 NANO MAN (8-1): Ran second at this level and route last month despite a bump at the start. His turf sprints are far better than the other races on his sheet, and one of those efforts was a win here last summer. If my top pick doesn’t want to put away his rivals, I think this one has a big chance at a square price; #11 HOLDING THE LINE (6-1): Hasn’t run since December, but ships in for Wesley Ward and attracts Frankie Dettori. At one time, he was thought of enough to be a 4/5 favorite in a stakes race, and other than my top pick, he looks like the only other serious speed in this turf sprint.