BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,243

When in doubt, turn to superstition. After going 0-for-4 to start the Travers Day card, I retreated deep into my closet and changed my shirt. The Old Smoke polo I pulled out has the made-up word “BELMATOGA” blazoned across it many, many times, bought as a trolling attempt by fellow “On The Wrong Lead” podcast co-host Mark Kapitan (when he trolls me, I get free stuff, so I never object).

Suddenly, things changed considerably. After giving out a boxed trifecta in the fifth, my top picks proceeded to win eight of the final nine races, including a race covered in this section.

As Kevin Costner’s Crash Davis said in “Bull Durham,” if you believe you’re playing well because (sanitized for print), you are, and you should know that. My wife hates this shirt, but it’s not going anywhere anytime soon.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Hope Road never looked like a loser in the Ballerina, where she stalked and pounced. She got bet down to 2-1, but my $50 win bet returned $152.50.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: We’ll wheel back some of this week’s profits with a stand in the sixth, where I really like #6 GARDINER. In addition to a $50 win bet on that one, he’s a single on a 50-cent late Pick Five ticket starting there that goes as follows: 6 with 1,2,4,5,6,8,9,14 with 6 with 8 with 1,3,5,6,7,10. If Gardiner wins, it’s a good day. If short prices prevail in the eighth and ninth, I’m in position to make it a great day.

TOTAL WAGERED: $74.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Gardiner, Race 6
Longshot: Justthefactsjack, Race 9

R1

Off Script
Hello Beauty
Starship Pegasus

#3 OFF SCRIPT (7/2): Came flying late to be second after trailing behind pretty moderate fractions last time out in his turf debut. There seems to be a bit more zip signed on in the Sunday opener, and he shouldn’t have quite as much to do when the real running starts; #5 HELLO BEAUTY (3-1): Runs against New York-breds for the first time after seven tries against open company. Her local debut was a bit disappointing, but her two-back effort at Churchill was quite good, and she’ll be a major player if she can run back to that; #10 STARSHIP PEGASUS (12-1): May have been compromised by a wide post in her debut, which came in the same race my top pick exits. Improvement is logical at second asking, and she doesn’t have to move forward a ton to factor in this one, but she once again had rotten luck at the post position draw.

R2

Hue
Elegant (MTO)
West Loop

#1 HUE (3-1): Takes a big, big drop from optional claiming company into this restricted claimer against fellow non-winners of two. Her return from a long layoff was far from bad, and any sort of a move forward second off the bench would make her a handful; #5 WEST LOOP (5-1): Responded to the class drop last time out, when she was beaten a nose at Monmouth. That day’s winner repeated at next asking, which is a good sign, and she figures to do her best running late; #10 MISS BOURBON (10-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while but drops in for a tag here. Her last-out effort wasn’t very good, but her two and three-back efforts were both sharp, and we may get an inflated price given the recent clunker at this route against horses that were probably better than this bunch.

R3

Man in Finance
Leo’s Reward
On the Hill

#6 MAN IN FINANCE (6/5): Makes his return to the races after being off since November, and judging by the aggressive work tab, he sure looks ready to run. He’ll get Lasix for the first time, and if he runs to his two 2024 starts, the race is probably for second; #3 LEO’S REWARD (7/2): Already makes his 10th start of the year here and suffered a bad beat last time out, when he was beaten a nose after possibly moving just a bit too early. That was Luis Saez’s first time on him, though, and he likely knows him a bit better heading into this event; #5 ON THE HILL (5-1): Looks like the lone closer in a race with plenty of early speed, which means he’s worth a look. He probably needs to improve on speed figures to be a serious contender, but his last-out effort at this level wasn’t bad and he gets an extra sixteenth to work with here.

R4

Walk With Me (MTO)
Alimara
Fleetingly

#1 ALIMARA (4-1): Is part of a formidable 1-2 punch for Chad Brown, and I think you can toss her last-out dud. She was behind a modest pace that day going a bit shorter than this three-turn marathon distance. Her two-back effort at 11 furlongs was solid, and she should get back to her best form; #5 FLEETINGLY (3-1): Was second in an off-the-turf race at Ellis last time and gets her desired surface here. The two-back win at Churchill was a good one, and that came on the heels of a sharp second three back behind a winner that repeated next time out; #4 NATIONAL ARCHIVE (6-1): Goes into open company out of several state-bred races, which isn’t a small step up in class. However, she cleared the first-level allowance condition last time out with a last-to-first blitz in early-July, and Irad Ortiz Jr. lands here. If there’s any sort of pace up front, she stands to benefit.

R5

Watdoyousay Jose
Skylarky
Miss Uproar

#7 WATDOYOUSAY JOSE (6-1): Is one of a few first-time starters in here that may benefit from the experienced runners not showing a whole lot to date. Linda Rice’s barn isn’t great with debuting runners, but she’s been working well and is the third foal to race from a mare that’s produced two winners to date; #6 SKYLARKY (7/2): Runs for Jorge Abreu, who does very well with first-out turfers, and she gets Irad, which is notable. The trainer and jockey have connected at a 41% clip over their last 27 partnerships, and she may not have to be much in order to drive that success rate even higher; #10 MISS UPROAR (12-1): Has been at this level for quite a while and makes her 18th career start here. However, her three recent races at this route haven’t been bad, and at least she’s shown an ability to make up some ground late.

R6

Gardiner
Fort Nelson
Singleminded

#6 GARDINER (5-1): Has found his form this year, with two wins and a second in three 2025 starts, and he looks like the main speed in here. The third-place finisher from the last-out score came back to win, which helps his cause, and I think he could be tough to catch if he gets comfortable; #1 FORT NELSON (2-1): Came back running off the bench on Independence Day, when he broke his maiden in classy fashion at this route. He’s bred to be any kind, though the rail draw isn’t an easy one and he does take on winners for the first time; #7 SINGLEMINDED (7/2): Chased a much-the-best winner last time out, but he did hold second at a pretty big price considering the barn he runs for. He’ll be among the favorites in this one, and he does have some room to improve given that this’ll only be his fourth career outing.

R7

Unlimited Spending
New Issue
Artella

#9 UNLIMITED SPENDING (7/2): Drops in for a tag after being one-paced against maiden special weight foes, and the shallower waters could be what she needs. This isn’t a field of world-beaters, and at least she’s got a big reason she could move forward for big-time connections; #4 NEW ISSUE (9/2): Stretches out to two turns after a pair of sprints, and she’ll make her third career start for her third different trainer. The route distance is a question mark, but she’s hit the board twice at this level and Flavien Prat sees fit to stay aboard; #8 ARTELLA (9/2): Makes her debut and has some bottom-side pedigree, being out of a Grade 3 winner on turf. That mare, Zuzanna, is a half-sister to a horse named Hazelbrook, who had plenty of success sprinting over Woodbine’s synthetic track.

R8

Bank Frenzy (MTO)
Rhetorical
Bettrluckythangood

#6 RHETORICAL (1/2): Is less than a length away from being 4-0 lifetime and looked great when topping open optional claimers at this route last month. He comes back to the state-bred ranks for the West Point, and while his likely price offers next to no value, he’s definitely the one to beat; #3 BETTRLUCKYTHANGOOD (5-1): Is a consistent closer that rallied to finish third going three turns last time out. He’s run up against several foes in here many times, and while the 0-for-4 local record is a concern, there should be some pace in here, and that’s what he wants; #2 CLEAR CONSCIENCE (8-1): Ran very well two back to take the Kingston here at a price, then flopped in the race my top pick exits and finished last of six. That effort hits me as too bad to be true, and at a minimum, his best race gives him a chance at a placing in the Sunday feature.

R9

Senza Parole
Justthefactsjack
Wild Mama

#8 SENZA PAROLE (4/5): Looked like a freak in her debut here last summer, when she romped by nearly eight lengths in 1:09 and change. We haven’t seen her in the afternoon since then, but the recent works look very sharp, and if she’s close to the horse we saw a season ago, there could be plenty to get excited about on Sunday and moving forward; #4 JUSTTHEFACTSJACK (12-1): Seems like the main speed in here and may have been compromised at the start last time. She was fourth early, and that’s too far back. Her two-back effort downstate off a five-month layoff was pretty good, and a return to form gives her a puncher’s chance at a price; #2 WILD MAMA (15-1): Misfired badly in the Tempted after a first-out win for a barn whose debuting runners usually aren’t fully cranked. We haven’t seen her since, but a few recent works here are pretty sharp, and the price is certainly interesting.

R10

Takeschargesmiling
Tetsu
Gatsby

#3 TAKESCHARGESMILING (3-1): Did a lot of dirty work last time, when he was a close-up second. There are a lot of horses here who don’t seem to want to win, and this five-time winner at least has some toughness to him. A similar type of trip in the finale could get him the money; #6 TETSU (6-1): Hasn’t won since April of last year, but he did make up plenty of ground late to be third in the race my top pick exits. He’s another “dream to own, tough to bet” horse, with 29 combined seconds and thirds in 60 starts to date, but there is some speed signed on and that could set things up for him; #1 GATSBY (7/2): Was a 9/5 favorite last time out, but faded after setting the early pace. Rob Atras does tend to move horses forward, and his best race could win this, but this barn also saddles my top pick, and that’s the Atras trainee I want given that he beat this horse by more than three lengths a few weeks ago.