BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,190

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THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Bye Bye Miles came up empty in the fifth, but Shattuck rallying to get the money in the third gave us a winning day. All told, my $46 investment returned $86.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ve got strong opinions in the fourth and fifth races, and I’ll look to make the most of them. I’ll have $20 win bets on #5 IT TAKES HEART in the fourth and #11 TOP PLAYER in the fifth, and I’ll connect those two with a $10 double. If one of them wins, we make money. If they both win, it’s a very, very good day.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: It Takes Heart, Race 4
Longshot: Top Player, Race 5

R1

Rice entry (MTO)
Tax Implications
Poca Mucha

#2 TAX IMPLICATIONS (4/5): Looms large in the Friday opener after chasing a very impressive winner last time out. This is far from a bad field, but it does hit me as a class drop from the foes she’s been running against for most of her career; #6 POCA MUCHA (5-1): Drops back into optional claiming company after finishing fifth in the De La Rose last month. She’s got back races that would make her a major player in here, but it’s curious why the connections would risk losing her for a $75,000 tag; #7 STORM MIAMI (8-1): Comes back to Saratoga after a failed stakes try in Indiana last time out. Her two-back win was a good one, and that’s probably the best race she’s ever run.

R2

Steer Clear
Americathegreat
Academia

#2 STEER CLEAR (9/5): Pressed a hot pace in her debut and finished second behind a fast-closing winner. Her pedigree says she’ll only get better with distance and experience, and she may not have to go quite as fast early on; #7 AMERICATHEGREAT (5-1): Hasn’t broken well in either of her prior outings, but this $1.2 million purchase is another with a pedigree saying she wants to go longer. She gets that here, and the most recent drill is very encouraging; #4 ACADEMIA (7/2): Chased two talented fillies in her debut, and she was pretty wide that day. This may be a softer spot, and it’s also possible she may be better with a start under her belt.

R3

Program Trading
Major Dude
Donegal Momentum

#2 PROGRAM TRADING (8/5): Returns off a layoff of more than year to contest the Bernard Baruch, and he’s the one to beat if he’s ready to go. This three-time Grade 1 winner has shown he runs well fresh, and this seems like a good spot for him to get back on the beam; #1 MAJOR DUDE (3-1): Has been competitive at this level all season and cuts back in distance after running third in the Grade 2 United Nations at Monmouth. This feels like a better route for him, and he could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the pace; #5 DONEGAL MOMENTUM (2-1): Won the Grade 3 Poker here two back, but I don’t think the likely race shape suits him. There seems to be a fair amount of speed signed on, and he may have to go pretty quickly in order to make the lead (which he may need in order to run his best race).

R4

It Takes Heart
Killy Start
Whistler’s Style

#5 IT TAKES HEART (3-1): Didn’t break well out of the chute last time out and both cuts back in distance and drops in class for this one. Her last start against straight claimers was a runaway score going one turn downstate, and a clean break likely makes her the one they have to catch; #4 KILLY START (5/2): Capitalized on a race that fell apart up front last time out, and it’s encouraging that Irad sees fit to ride back for this smaller barn. That was her first win in a while, and I worry about how the likely race shape affects her chances, but there are some things to like; #8 WHISTLER’S STYLE (4-1): Ran second at this level and route last time and has never been worse than second in three starts going seven furlongs. She’s another that may need more pace than she’s likely to get, but the addition of blinkers means she may be a bit closer early on.

R5

Top Player
Power Speed
Party in the Army

#11 TOP PLAYER (6-1): Debuts for George Weaver after a string of strong workouts over this track. His dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Tap Dance Fever, and his female family also includes the dam of stakes horses My Pal Charlie, Bwana Bull, and Bwana Charlie; #12 POWER SPEED (5/2): Hammered for $700,000 earlier this year and debuts for Todd Pletcher, which means he’s going to take money. My hesitation comes with both his likely short price in a big field and the length of time he spent with this barn’s second string at Monmouth; #2 PARTY IN THE ARMY (4-1): Sports a few flashy drills ahead of his debut for Jeremiah Englehart, who knows how to win with first-time starters. His dam was a 2-year-old stakes winner, too, so he has every right to be precocious.

R6

Catchphrase
Florida Flower
Sailaway

#9 CATCHPHRASE (6-1): Is a tepid top pick in a race where I just don’t have much of an opinion. She has, however, been facing much better horses, her last race is an easy throwout, and her two-back effort downstate was a pretty solid effort; #1 FLORIDA FLOWER (4-1): Goes first off the claim for Norm Casse and has a right to move forward off of the barn switch. She hasn’t won in her last seven starts, but several of those efforts were going longer and she may respond cutting back to a sprint; #8 SAILAWAY (5-1): Moves up in class first off the claim for Linda Rice, but she may have found a very weak spot for the level. Irad rides back after a last-out wire-to-wire score in the mud, and she could be tough if she makes the lead early on.

R7

Ward entry
Brooklyn Styles
Copa de Plata

WARD ENTRY (8/5): If #1A SCHWARZENEGGER draws in, he’s probably a single. Word has been out on this horse for months, and he’s scratched several times. If he finally gets to run, he looms very, very large. If not, he’ll be back; #5 BROOKLYN STYLES (5-1): Ran third in his debut a few weeks ago and has a right to improve at second asking for a barn that’s been red-hot at this stand. He was a bit wide that day, too, and he may improve given an opportunity to save some ground; #9 COPA DE PLATA (8-1): Sold for $400,000 at auction last summer and has been working well for Mark Casse. The outside post is a problem, but offspring of Justify can handle the turf and his dam was a runner, banking nearly $300,000 in her career.

R8

She Feels Stunning
Concurrently
Connect the Stars

#2 SHE FEELS STUNNING (5/2): Sold for $650,000 at auction last year, and for good reason. She’s a younger half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner She Feels Pretty, and she’s been working very well ahead of her unveiling. This barn’s horses sometimes need a race to get going, but if she runs to the pedigree, look out; #7 CONCURRENTLY (5-1): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees in this one, and she’s the one that attracts Flavien Prat. American Pharoah has proven to be a strong turf influence, and her dam was a stakes-winning router, so this could be what she wants; #8 CONNECT THE STARS (9/2): Has an experience edge over most of this group and was second behind a perfect-trip winner last time out. She hasn’t run badly since coming upstate, and if her opponents need some seasoning, she could capitalize.

R9

Baby Yoda
Discreet Mischief
Light Man

#5 BABY YODA (2-1): Freaked two starts ago when he set a track record downstate, but flopped in the Grade 2 Vanderbilt, where he finished 13 lengths behind Book’em Danno. He drops in class, though, which means he gets Lasix, and Flavien Prat hops back aboard; #3 DISCREET MISCHIEF (7/2): Has a similar story, with a big two-back race followed by a regression last time out. He didn’t break well that day at Churchill, though, and that meant he didn’t sit his desired trip closer to the pace; #6 LIGHT MAN (5-1): Ran third in the John Morrissey last time out and has hit the board in 10 of 11 starts. The consistency here is a plus, as are both his versatility and tactical speed. I also think he may be better at this distance than his 0-for-2 mark would indicate, as both prior seven-furlong races have come over wet tracks.

R10

Purpose
Margaux Treasure
Capital Gal

#3 PURPOSE (6-1): Has to move forward on speed figures, but may get an ideal race shape. There’s a lot of early speed signed on, and with that in mind, I want horses that can pass others late. She didn’t get that race shape last time out, but figures to improve given the circumstances; #2 MARGAUX TREASURE (6-1): Stretches out in distance, which is a big question mark. However, she’s another one-run closer, and it’s not like she ran terribly when third last time out in her first start since May. Logical improvement combined with a favorable setup could give her a big chance; #4 CAPITAL GAL (7/2): Was second at this level and route last time out and may take money because of it. I’m hesitant, though, because that was a pretty slow race and her lone recent dirt win came going six furlongs at Finger Lakes.

R11

Dynamic Pricing
Raqiya
Proctor Street

#5 DYNAMIC PRICING (9/5): Headlines the Perfect Sting, which looks much more like a Grade 2 than a listed stakes race. She won the Grade 1 Just A Game two back before finishing third in the Diana, and there figures to be plenty of speed to set things up for her late kick; #2 RAQIYA (5-1): Ran too poorly to be true in the Grade 3 Beaugay, and her two prior efforts in the U.S. were solid. She won the Grade 2 Goldikova in wire-to-wire fashion before trying tough company in the Pegasus Filly and Mare Turf. She seems like the speed of the speed, which is a good thing to be on the inner turf; #6 PROCTOR STREET (7/2): Passed the eye test with a stylish score against optional claimers last time out and may still be improving. This race, however, came up very tough, and she may need another step forward to factor.

R12

Channel Check
Key Actress
Bourbon Milk Punch

#1 CHANNEL CHECK (7/2): Didn’t run badly last time when fourth in a swiftly-run maiden race and takes a slight drop in class for the Friday finale. I’m not crazy about her going to Monmouth between races, but that’s not as much of a red flag as it used to be for this high-percentage outfit; #2 KEY ACTRESS (3-1): Has plenty of early speed and could find herself up front early on. Her second-place finish last time out was a good one, and she showed some fight in the lane after pressing the pace; #4 BOURBON MILK PUNCH (8-1): Was second at this level last time out, and two of her best races have come over this turf course. She doesn’t have to move forward much to be a player in this one, and if you’re looking for some value, you may find it here.