BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,140

I need to do some housekeeping to kick this off. Print journalism has deadlines, and I refuse to keep my editor waiting on my content for any reason. That’s why you’ll rarely, if ever, see a bankroll play from me ending in the last race of a card. It may seem obvious to some, but I can’t submit the next day’s bankroll content until the current day is over (if I could predict the future, I’d be on a private island somewhere!).

With that in mind, I won’t be using my best bet of the day, which comes in the 13th and final. It’s simply too late to get everything in and formatted on time. Having said that, know this: If time wasn’t a factor, I would use this space to have a significant win wager on Debt Limit in the finale. He’s 3-1 on the morning line, and I honestly think that’s a significant overlay.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Neither of the two horses I highlighted in here fired. I dropped $50.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I can’t play the 13th, but I will play the 11th, the Grade 1 Spinaway, which goes off an hour earlier. I’m a big fan of #1 ORNELLAIA (especially after Steer Clear won Friday), and I’ll be betting accordingly. In addition to a $30 win bet, I’ll key her in a $5 exacta box using her above and below #5 PERCY’S BAR and #8 TOMMY JO.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Debt Limit, Race 13
Longshot: Braciole, Race 3

R1

Waitin’onasunnyday
Two Ducks
Jolted

#7 WAITIN’ONASUNNYDAY (4-1): Chased a next-out stakes winner home in his debut for a barn whose runners tend to get better with experience. He’s turned in a few solid drills since then and appears well-meant in the Saturday opener; #6 TWO DUCKS (8-1): Was fourth on turf in his debut and ran into a good-looking winner that day. He’s another that has a right to move forward at second asking, and we may get a bit of a price on him; #9 JOLTED (7/2): Was wide in his debut while chasing a solid pace. He does draw outside again here, but he may have enough early speed to clear this bunch early and dictate terms from the jump.

R2

The Obliterator (MTO)
Diliello
Honoree (AE)

#3 DILIELLO (4-1): Flopped when third as a 6/5 favorite last time out, but I’m willing to give him another shot stretching out in distance. His bottom-side pedigree has plenty of stamina to it, and sire Gift Box did his best work going a distance of ground, too; #12 HONOREE (5/2): Needs two scratches to run, but merits respect if he does. He was far behind a slow pace last time out, raced wide, and jockey John Velazquez lost his whip, but he still managed to run second. A less-eventful journey may be enough to get him the money here; #10 TIME TO ROLL (8-1): Doesn’t draw a great post in his debut, but he sold for $270,000 last year and has a lot of “win-early” pedigree. His dam was a debut winner who went on to place in Grade 3 company, and the lone prior runner she’s thrown won at first asking, too.

R3

Trust Fund
Braciole
Runaway Joke

#3 TRUST FUND (9/2): Seems to have found his form of late, with back-to-back wins downstate coming into this one. It’s a step up the class ladder for him, but he’s one of only a few in here that doesn’t seem to need the lead early on, and that should help him; #2 BRACIOLE (12-1): Has a history of coming from out of the clouds, and that’s the right style to have in a race full of early speed. He might be left with too much to do late on the win end, but throw him out of vertical exotics at your own peril; #1 RUNAWAY JOKE (7/2): Has won his last seven starts, mostly at Finger Lakes, and ships in for a barn that means business when it comes in. Of the speed horses, he’s the one I prefer, but it sure looks like they’re going to be flying early.

R4

Crushed It (MTO)
Creditworthy
Final Verdict

#5 CREDITWORTHY (5/2): Comes back to the turf after a dud on dirt last time out. It’s understandable why they tried that spot given his two-back score in an off-the-turf event, but grass is likely what he wants and it doesn’t seem like he catches the strongest field for the level; #1 FINAL VERDICT (4-1): Hasn’t won yet this year, but one can argue he’s been compromised by wide trips in his last several outings. He shouldn’t get that from the rail draw in here, and he’s hit the board five times in six tries at the Spa; #7 TWISTED FILIGREE (6-1): May have bounced last time off of a strong wire-to-wire win two back in his first try since November. A bounce-back makes him a contender in here, though he might have some company up front in this turf sprint.

R5

Tough Street
Scythian
Rice entry

#2 TOUGH STREET (3-1): Didn’t run well last time out, but that was her first start since February and it came against open company. She drops in for a $45,000 tag here, and she’ll also run against New York-breds at a route she won at last summer; #3 SCYTHIAN (5/2): Makes her 2025 debut after accomplishing quite a bit as a 2-year-old. She won the Grade 2 Miss Grillo before trying the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, and it seems like she’s working well, but what are we to make of a turf-oriented horse coming back on the dirt?; RICE ENTRY (4-1): #1 SWEETEST PRINCESS and #1A MALU both fit on form. Having said that, they didn’t exactly luck out at the post position draw. They’ll break from posts seven and nine here, and neither of those are ideal.

R6

Stradale
Talkin
Accost

#1 STRADALE (5/2): Had a nightmare trip in his debut, when he broke terribly and settled for third as an odds-on favorite. This $1.3 million purchase has the Steve Asmussen work pattern I love, and if he can break smoothly from the rail draw, he’ll be strictly the one to beat; #4 TALKIN (9/2): Hammered for $600,000 at Keeneland last year and debuts off of a strong series of works for Danny Gargan. He’s kin to five winners, and his dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Magnificent Song, among others; #3 ACCOST (3-1): Ran well in his debut, when he was second despite a wide trip. He’s got a right to move forward at second asking, though this seems like a promising field and he might have to do that in order to contend.

R7

Long Neck Paula
Delightful Claire
Rojo Rita

#5 LONG NECK PAULA (8/5): Did everything but win the Jersey Girl last time out, when she set a fast pace and got beaten a head (in one of several terrible Belmont week beats for yours truly…). Cross out the dud over the Turfway synthetic three back, and you have a horse that’s never run a bad one ahead of the Grade 3 Prioress; #3 DELIGHTFUL CLAIRE (6/5): Ran very, very well in breaking her maiden by more than nine lengths a few weeks ago and steps all the way up into graded stakes company. On speed figures, she fits, but this is an ambitious spot against some proven horses, and the likely short price offers minimal value; #2 ROJO RITA (5-1): Comes back to the dirt, and if she can channel her Gulfstream form from the winter and spring, she fits in here. Edgard Zayas picks up the mount on a trip up from Florida, and she figures to be a primary pace factor.

R8

Dragones
Our Magical Moon
Frenchquarter Note

#6 DRAGONES (5/2): Makes his debut after selling for $1.7 million across the street as a yearling last summer. His pedigree is strong, being by Gun Runner and out of a mare that’s also thrown Grade 1 winner Leofric, and his two-back gate drill looks sensational; #2 OUR MAGICAL MOON (5-1): Tried two turns on turf at first asking and ran well to be third after setting the early pace. His lone workout since then looks strong, and his experience edge could be a big, big advantage; #9 FRENCHQUARTER NOTE (10-1): Runs for the first time and is another with several things to like. George Weaver’s enjoyed an excellent meet to this point, and the two-back gate work is a strong one. He’s a half to multiple stakes winner Annex, among others, and breaking towards the outside could be a plus.

R9

Shoot It True
Tales of The Heart
Ward entry

#4 SHOOT IT TRUE (5/2): Takes a significant class jump coming out of the state-bred ranks, but she was very, very good last time out. She cruised home while geared down, and that day’s third-place finisher, Strictly Taboo, has talent. A similar kind of effort here would make her tough; #3 TALES OF THE HEART (6-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but she was a solid third in a pai of races at this route earlier this summer. She should certainly get plenty of pace to run at in here, and that may be enough to put her over the top; WARD ENTRY (8-1): #1 DANGHERECOMESSHANG re-rallied last time after being headed, which isn’t an easy thing to do. She’s won two in a row this year, and when Wesley Ward gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there.

R10

La Mehana
Be Your Best
Bellezza

#4 LA MEHANA (2-1): Has come to hand for Miguel Clement with a pair of impressive wins, including a runaway score in the Grade 2 Glens Falls. That was over a yielding track, to be fair, but she’s run very well over firm going in the past, too, and she’s the one to beat in the Grade 2 Flower Bowl; #7 BE YOUR BEST (5/2): Disappointed when a flat third in the Grade 2 Beverly D. at Colonial after coming in with four wins in her prior five starts. One of those was a romp in the Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita, and her best race would give her a big chance, but I’m not totally convinced she’s at her best going this long; #8 BELLEZZA (4-1): Chased my top pick last time out and may not have enjoyed the softer going. The turf course should be more firm on Saturday, and that could enable her to get back to her graded stakes-winning form from earlier this year.

R11

Ornellaia
Tommy Jo
Percy’s Bar

#1 ORNELLAIA (9/2): Won her debut like a very, very good horse, when she didn’t break well and finished with a flourish to get the money. I’m not a huge fan of the rail draw, but this $1.1 million purchase lived up to the billing last time out and could move forward further in the Grade 1 Spinaway; #8 TOMMY JO (2-1): Was another impressive maiden-breaker this summer, as she cruised home by nearly four lengths over a runner that romped at next asking. These powerhouse connections merit respect, especially in high-level 2-year-old races, and she’s a logical favorite; #5 PERCY’S BAR (6-1): Has won her first two starts in Kentucky, and she’s done so impressively, rating early and pouncing late. This is a significant class test, but she’s done absolutely nothing wrong to this point and merits plenty of respect.

R12

Surveillance
Whatchatalkinabout
Victory Way

#4 SURVEILLANCE (7/2): Ran well to be second in another stakes-quality optional claimer last time out, and in doing so beat multiple graded stakes winner Damon’s Mound. He runs well at Saratoga, especially when allowed to run with Lasix, and his usual effort would give him a big chance; #7 WHATCHATALKINABOUT (3-1): Ran a real clunker last time out in the John Morrissey, when he was beaten 12 lengths as the 9/5 favorite. The muddy, sealed track may not have helped him, and he’s since worked well. A return to form would make him a top contender; #8 VICTORY WAY (4-1): Exits a fast race from Belmont week, where he was second behind the well-meant General Partner in the slop. On speed figures, he fits, but it’s been a long time between trips to the winner’s circle for him (he hasn’t won since July of 2023).

R13

Debt Limit
Laurel Valley
Main Beach

#5 DEBT LIMIT (3-1): Rallied from far, far back to be third behind Then last time out, and that one has since repeated and is likely on his way to stakes races. He’d won two in a row before that effort, he adds blinkers here, and I think he’s strictly the one to beat (and that the 3-1 price is an overlay); #11 LAUREL VALLEY (6-1): May have needed his last race, as that was his first try since November. He was fourth that day after setting a pretty fast pace, and while the outside post isn’t ideal, he may have enough early speed to dictate terms from the first jump; #12 MAIN BEACH (9/2): Is the “other” Chad Brown in this spot, and while he’s another that draws terribly in the Saturday finale, there are some things to like. His comeback at Monmouth wasn’t a bad effort, and he could step forward second off the bench if rider Jose Lezcano can work out a trip.