BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,140

Get tied on, because we’ve got 14 races coming up Sunday at Saratoga. My issue, though, isn’t with the volume of races, but with an unfortunate quirk in the routes of those events.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup is the only two-turn dirt race on the card. Meanwhile, four of the other 13 races will be contested out of the Wilson chute (with more to come if any rain rolls in and forces races off the turf). It’s the last weekend of Saratoga, with the best fans in the game congregating on the apron and in the grandstand. Why not add a furlong to at least one of those one-mile races and start and finish at the wire?

For most of this season, NYRA has done a great job moderating the use of the Wilson chute, which we’ve seen too much of the last several years. However, there have been stretches where it gets overused, and Sunday’s one of those days.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Ornellaia, unfortunately, scratched out of the Spinaway, which cancelled all my action.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: We’ll head to the ninth, where I’m hoping #9 ROYAL GUARD runs to a pedigree that says he’ll love going to the turf at second asking. I’ll have a $50 win bet on him, and I’ll also single him to finish a pair of $10 doubles that start in the eighth with #2 VETTRIANO and #4 BURNING GLORY.

TOTAL WAGERED: $70.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Royal Guard, Race 9
Longshot: Burning Glory, Race 8

R1

Aeolian
Bon Vivant
Endorse

#5 AEOLIAN (4-1): Debuts for Chad Brown and boasts a monster pedigree, being a full sister to Grade 1 winner Tapit Trice. Debuting going a mile is no easy task, but she’s bred to want plenty of distance, and it’s not like there are any monsters in the Sunday opener; #1 BON VIVANT (9/2): Was third going a bit longer last time out and, in an ironic twist, chased home a full sister to my top selection that day. Cutting back to a mile should help her, as her one-turn efforts aren’t bad, but the rail draw is a question mark; #3 ENDORSE (7/2): Ran well to be third behind Ragtime in her debut, but has since thrown a rider and run sixth beaten 19 lengths. A repeat of the debut effort might be enough to get the money here, but I’d be hesitant to, well, endorse this one at a short price.

R2

Chummers (AE)
Twenty One Red
Mr. Bres

#11 CHUMMERS (3-1): Needs a scratch to draw in but merits respect if he gets to run. He did everything but win last time out at a price, and this barn’s runners tend to improve considerably with experience. A step forward could make him tough; #7 TWENTY ONE RED (8-1): Sports a few flashy drills ahead of his debut for George Weaver, who has shined with debuting turf sprinters this summer. Flavien Prat likely had a few options, but he lands here, and this dam’s four prior foals to race are all winners; #4 MR. BRES (7/2): Wouldn’t be a terrible favorite in his debut for Miguel Clement. He’s a full brother to turf winner Coach Case, and a few of his works hint that he may have some potential.

R3

Final Turn entry
Echo Again
Dilger

FINAL TURN ENTRY (7/2): I prefer #1 TOP GUN ROCKET, who won two in a row before a third-place finish going longer in the mud against what hits me as a better group. His two-back score came at this route, and there’s something to be said for horses that like the chute; #2 ECHO AGAIN (5/2): Has run two solid races at Saratoga this summer and was most recently a close-up second going seven furlongs. He more than fits on speed figures, but I’m starting to get a bit concerned that he finds ways to lose, and the rail draw isn’t an ideal one out of the chute, let alone for a deep closer; #5 DILGER (3-1): Faded a bit to be third last time out going seven furlongs, but perhaps he needed that race off of a bit of a break. He’s won going a mile before, and Irad sees fit to ride back.

R4

Maria Callas
Cosmic Candy Girl
Boomington

#3 MARIA CALLAS (9/5): Debuts for Chad Brown and boasts a steady string of solid drills ahead of her unveiling. There’s plenty of stamina on her bottom-side pedigree, sire Caravaggio is a very strong turf influence, and Flavien Prat will be aboard; #8 COSMIC CANDY GIRL (10-1): Ran second beaten a length in her debut, which was rained off the turf. Everything about her pedigree says she wants the grass, and while this barn has been a bit cold this summer, I think this one has a chance at a price; #7 BOOMINGTON (8-1): Is one of two firsters trained by George Weaver in this spot, and of the pair, this is the one I want. She’s kin to Run Away, who won three stakes races as a 2-year-old in California, and the two-back gate drill on August 16th was a good one.

R5

Mindframe
Sierra Leone
Highland Falls

#4 MINDFRAME (2-1): Has never run a bad one and comes into the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup with three graded stakes wins in as many starts this season. I think he’ll sit an ideal trip just off the pace and have every chance to run that mark to 4-for-4 over one of the best Gold Cup fields in recent memory; #3 SIERRA LEONE (8/5): Figures to be favored after an impressive score in the Grade 1 Whitney. His rabbit once again runs here, and his best race could absolutely win this, but it’s worth noting that he’s chased Mindframe twice, including in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster two back; #2 HIGHLAND FALLS (5-1): Was a very good second in the Whitney, goes third off the bench for Brad Cox, and does his best running at the Spa. He won this race a season ago, and while he’ll need to run a bit faster to repeat, it’s also possible he’s sitting on a big one here (and if you like him, you’ll get a square price).

R6

Meursault (MTO)
Virgin Colada
Sea To Sky

#10 VIRGIN COLADA (2-1): Takes a significant class drop after a clunker in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and looms large in this allowance event. She’s been running against stakes company ever since breaking her maiden at first asking, and she’s strictly the one to beat; #7 SEA TO SKY (8-1): Is a European invader getting first-time Lasix, which is an angle I’ve always loved. She ran some solid races overseas, seems to be working well, and attracts Hall of Famer John Velazquez; #1 CLIFFS (4-1): Faces winners for the first time after an impressive maiden-breaking score earlier this month. A repeat effort could give her a chance, but that was a significant step forward, and there’s also a chance she “bounces” off of it.

R7

Celebrity Quest
Paige Turner
Lovely Christina

#9 CELEBRITY QUEST (6-1): Sold for $525,000 at Keeneland last fall and debuts for Tom Amoss, who has sent out some very talented 2-year-olds this summer. She’s got a few bullet drills on her sheet, and her bottom-side pedigree is monstrous (her dam is kin to Grade 1 winner Power Broker, and third dam Shopping was very, very productive); #3 PAIGE TURNER (8-1): Travels in for Cherie DeVaux after several strong works at Keeneland and Ellis Park. I find the ship-in interesting, as there had to be a few spots coming up in Kentucky, and instead they run her here. That could be a sign she’s sitting on “go” in her unveiling; #8 LOVELY CHRISTINA (5/2): Chased a well-meant debutante when second at first asking for Todd Pletcher, and improvement is likely at second asking. Still, this is a promising group of 2-year-old fillies, and merely repeating the last-out effort may not be enough to get it done.

R8

Burning Glory
Vettriano
Tap Into This

#4 BURNING GLORY (8-1): Hasn’t run since February, when he was third in the Grade 3 Holy Bull behind a pair of eventual Grade 1 winners. The long layoff is a concern, but he’ll run with Lasix for the first time and that last-out gate drill was very, very fast. At his likely price, I’ll gladly take a swing; #2 VETTRIANO (6-1): Never had a chance in his return a few weeks ago, when he broke slowly and was never involved. He wants to be on or near the lead, and that’s the trip he should get stretching out second off the bench for Linda Rice; #7 TAP INTO THIS (3-1): Graduated in fine fashion last time out, but I think his likely price is a bit short here. He benefited from a legitimate pace last time out, the post position isn’t ideal, and the Wilson chute is an unknown. Maybe he’s developing and is good enough to overcome all of that, but others interest me more.

R9

Royal Guard
Tacticality
Sunrise (AE)

#9 ROYAL GUARD (4-1): Was third in his off-the-turf debut, and that day’s runner-up was a next-out winner. His bottom-side pedigree is all-turf, which he gets here, and his experience edge over a few first-time starters could make a big, big difference; #10 TACTICALITY (3-1): Draws a less-than-ideal post in his debut for Chad Brown, but he’s bred to be a runner and has been working consistently. His dam, second dam, and third dam were all stakes horses, and sire Essential Quality is off to a fast start at stud; #13 SUNRISE (4-1): Needs two scratches to run, but his debut wasn’t bad and he may have needed that race given a pedigree that suggests he’ll get better with experience. He may be wide if he runs, but it’s also possible he’s sitting on a move forward.

R10

Big Invasion
Twenty Six Black
Works for Me

#9 BIG INVASION (5-1): Comes in off a long layoff to contest the Disco Partner, but he’s run very, very well at Saratoga in the past. He won last year’s Harvey Pack at this route, seems to be training well, and figures to be the one they’ll have to hold off late; #5 TWENTY SIX BLACK (4-1): Was a good second in the Grade 2 Troy behind one of the best turf sprinters in the country, and Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back. He’s another with a history of strong efforts at Saratoga, and perhaps he’s coming into his own as a 5-year-old; #8 WORKS FOR ME (6-1): Ran second in the Harvey Pack and hasn’t run a clunker in more than a year for a small barn that merits respect (that outfit also conditions multiple graded stakes winner May Day Ready). He won last year’s Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship, so he more than fits at this level.

R11

Rout
Vibrant Express
Lodato

#3 ROUT (2-1): Was one-paced in his debut on turf and goes to dirt while dropping in for a tag. It’s possible this is a “dump” from a high-percentage barn, but there’s just not much in this group, and any sort of a step forward from his debut figures to make him tough to beat; #10 VIBRANT EXPRESS (9/2): Debuts for George Weaver and is another that seems to have found a good spot. We don’t know much about him yet, but he’s got a few OK workouts and draws well at first asking; #2 LODATO (6-1): Showed speed in his debut going two turns on turf at Tampa, but we haven’t seen him since. A few recent drills look fine, and the presence of aggressive jockey Luis Saez could indicate he’ll be forwardly-placed out of the gate.

R12

Navajo Warrior
Gasoline
Systemic Change

#2 NAVAJO WARRIOR (2-1): Got pretty good earlier this year in California, where he reeled off three straight wins at a mile before moving to the Saffie Joseph barn. He fits on speed figures, and his ability to go a two-turn mile should translate well to the Wilson chute; #6 GASOLINE (6-1): Is 2-for-2 at Saratoga and topped a weaker group going two turns last time out. He may be a bit better going a hair shorter, so the cutback could move him forward, and if he can repeat his last-out effort, he could stand a chance at a mild upset; #7 SYSTEMIC CHANGE (5-1): Capitalized on an ideal setup last time out, when he rallied from last to first before being claimed by Ilkay Kantarmaci. His two-back clunker came in a key race that’s now produced four next-out winners, and he’d benefit from a faster-than-expected pace here.

R13

Belle Cherie
Julita
Flatter Fanatic

#11 BELLE CHERIE (9/2): Hasn’t run since April and takes a class drop that may seem alarming on paper. However, this ownership desperately wants to make a run at the seasonal title, they’re not afraid to drop horses way down in order to do that, and she has plenty of back form; #8 JULITA (8-1): Is another dropping in class, but she does so after a failed turf experiment last time out. She showed speed against better two back at Aqueduct, and she went wire-to-wire three back to break her maiden; #6 FLATTER FANATIC (12-1): Merits a look at a price after a dud in the slop against winners. Her two-back win at Gulfstream was a solid effort, and she showed plenty of gate speed that day.

R14

Lets Fight
Hello Newman
Blame It On K J

#3 LETS FIGHT (9/2): Hasn’t run since February, but his work tab is strong and he drops in for a tag for the first time. He’s bred to love the lawn, and the presence of Irad in the finale of this marathon card could be a clue; #2 HELLO NEWMAN (3-1): Showed improvement at this level last time out, when he was a close-up third going shorter. I’m not entirely sure two turns is what he wants, but at least we know he can be competitive against similar horses; #7 BLAME IT ON K J (10-1): Comes back to turf after running a good second in an off-the-turf event at second asking. He lost all chance in his debut at the start, and his pedigree says the grass is what he wants. Another step forward in his third start could give him a big chance at a price.