Author: Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll for Friday, July 3rd (OPENING DAY)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,200

A lot’s changed in the last few weeks. Aqueduct is no more, Hawthorne and Emerald Downs are in trouble, and FanDuel TV has laid off most of its workforce. Relish what you have, everybody, because a lot of things in this industry (and the world at large, to be fair) seem very, very fragile at the moment.

For those new to my work, here’s an introduction: In addition to full-card Saratoga picks and analysis, I’ll also offer wagers for each racing day at the Spa. If you can’t pick up a copy of The Pink Sheet on a racing day, my content will be available online every day at both AndrewChampagne.com and my Substack, The Smart Money.

Usually, I have $1,000 in the bank for 40 days. Due to the extra days this summer, I’ve put $200 more in there to start things off. I’ve finished the last two summers in the black, and Belmont week was a good one, too. Let’s see what we can do over these next 46 cards.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take a swing in the sixth, where I think we’ll get some value with my top pick, #6 PETROLO. I’ll have a $15 win bet on that one, and I’ll key him in $2 exactas above and below #3 PROVE WORTHY, #4 METATRON’S MUSE, and #5 SHIPSATIONAL.

TOTAL WAGERED: $27.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Anyway, Race 3
Longshot: Scratch It, Race 8

R1

Nogradi
Fact
Pretty Boy Miah

#1 NOGRADI (5-1): Has won four of five since a late-November barn change, and while this is a step up in class, it certainly looks like he’s going the right way. He should get plenty of pace to chase, and that could make him the one they have to hold off turning for home for the first time this summer; #4 FACT (5/2): Capitalized on a picture-perfect trip last time out in Indiana and may go favored based on his back class. He was a tough-luck second in last year’s Smarty Jones at Parx, and while his best effort is quite good, he almost certainly won’t be alone up top early on here; #5 PRETTY BOY MIAH (6-1): Was thrown into very deep waters last time out in the Grade 1 Preakness, and while he has to tackle older foes here, it’s the right level. He gets o run with Lasix again, which should help him, and his works since coming to Saratoga have been sharp.

R2

Timbertop
Rockabye
Pavlova’s Palace

#5 TIMBERTOP (3-1): Is the lone runner in here with experience, and she likely learned quite a bit first time out. She didn’t break well in that off-the-turf event, but she gets to run on the grass here for Wesley Ward, and I think it’s telling John Velazquez sees fit to ride back; #9 ROCKABYE (4-1): Draws favorably in her debut and will get some attention solely because of sire Flightline, whose first crop is hitting the track this year. Miguel Clement can get first-time starters ready to run, and there’s some class on the bottom of her pedigree, as her dam (a daughter of Into Mischief) was a Grade 3 winner; #6 PAVLOVA’S PALACE (8-1): Debuts for Bill Mott, whose record with first-time starters isn’t fantastic. However, she’s kin to five winners, and her dam is a half to a few very nice turf horses, including Grade 1 winner Stroll and Grade 1-placed Patrol.

R3

Anyway
Blue Roof Beau
Mo for the King

#3 ANYWAY (5/2): Was a good second here last month going a bit longer and cuts back to six furlongs for this event. He seems to be coming to hand for “leading trainer” candidate Linda Rice, and while he has tactical speed, he’s shown he doesn’t need the lead to run well; #5 BLUE ROOF BEAU (4-1): Did nothing wrong in his debut, when he dueled through solid fractions before hitting the wire clear by nearly four lengths. I’m not sure what he beat that day, and this is a stiff class test given how strong it came up for the level, but he could wind up improving at second asking for this high-percentage outfit; #1 MO FOR THE KING (8/5): Is the morning line favorite, but I have doubts. He was beaten a neck by my top pick last time out, and his lone recent win came over a muddy, sealed track downstate. That 8/5 price hits me as an underlay, and I’ll try to beat him.

R4

Mr R T
Trail Blaze
Ryan’s Shadow

#7 MR R T (7/2): Gets Flavien Prat in a puzzling maiden claiming event, and that combined with his tactical speed is enough for me to give him a tepid nod. He did run fairly well last time out to be second going a mile, and I’m expecting him to be on or near the lead here; #2 TRAIL BLAZE (9/2): Is a new face coming in from California, and he picked up a few checks over the winter at Santa Anita against similar stock. We haven’t seen him since February, but Jose Ortiz gets the call, and ignore a Linda Rice-trained newcomer to a circuit at your own peril; #5 RYAN’S SHADOW (4-1): Showed brief speed last time out in an off-the-turf event and drops further down the class ladder for trainer Brad Cox. That last-out effort was disappointing, but a few workouts since that effort have been OK, and it’s not like he’d have to be much to run well against these.

R5

Oscar’s Encore
Paula’s a Star
Minute by Minute

#7 OSCAR’S ENCORE (5-1): Showed talent a season ago when she broke her maiden here and then finished beaten three lengths in a $1 million race at Kentucky Downs. She’s been off since being eased in a stakes race at Woodbine, but if she’s ready to run, I think she’ll be tough; #3 PAULA’S A STAR (4-1): Tried turf for the first time last month and didn’t run terribly, finishing fourth in a swiftly-run race for the level. That hits me as a much stronger spot than this one, and Ricardo Santana, Jr., has been enlisted to ride back for trainer Tom Morley; #1 MINUTE BY MINUTE (7/2): Tries turf for the first time for the tag team of Chad Brown and Flavien Prat and merits some respect, but I have some reservations. Her debut win was fine, but her comeback effort in May was very disappointing, and while she’s got some turf pedigree, I’m wondering why she didn’t start her career on that surface for a trainer that runs a ton of 2-year-olds on the lawn. 

R6

Petrolo
Metatron’s Muse
Shipsational

#6 PETROLO (6-1): Came back after a break of more than a year and didn’t run terribly, finishing third at a price. He should be much, much sharper second off the bench, and the rider switch to Manny Franco is a big one. This barn’s been cold to start the year, but I think there’s quite a bit to like here; #4 METATRON’S MUSE (5/2): Benefited from a fast pace last time out, when he came off the bench going a mile and won a head-bob. Orlando Noda claimed him that day, and he can win with new acquisitions, but two turns is a question mark and I’m not sure what kind of pace he’ll get here; #5 SHIPSATIONAL (9/2): Hasn’t won in a long, long time, but he stretches back out to two turns, which seems like his preferred trip. His close-up second two back was a good effort, and his last-out effort came at a slightly higher level.

R7

Silver Talent
Fort Nelson
Belgian

#1 SILVER TALENT (7/2): Earned the diploma last time out at Aqueduct and looks to be improving for Chad Brown. This regally-bred son of Constitution and multiple Grade 1 winner Paulassilverlining has had some big expectations, and if he’s starting to figure things out, he’s a serious prospect; #5 FORT NELSON (6-1): Is one of two Linda Rice trainees and seems eligible to improve cutting back from a route to a sprint. One of his three wins came here last summer, first-call rider Jose Ortiz has the mount, and his winning efforts two and three back downstate were good ones; #2 BELGIAN (3-1): Ran away and hid in his unveiling a season ago before finishing fifth as a 6/5 favorite in the Grade 3 Futurity on turf. He’s been working consistently, and if he’s ready off the bench, he’s a contender, but that layoff is a significant one and that has me…waffling (I hear you booing).

R8

To a Flame
Scratch It
Code

#7 TO A FLAME (9/2): Has had some strange trips against graded stakes foes in her last two starts, but may have found her friends here in the Wild Applause. She was up very close two back at Keeneland and raced wide at Churchill Downs last time. Jose Ortiz hops aboard for the first time, and I think she’s dangerous with a more friendly journey; #1 SCRATCH IT (12-1): Was much the best last time out in Indiana and returns to the stakes ranks here. She was second in the P.G. Johnson here last year before collecting another minor award in the Grade 3 Surfer Girl, and if you cross out her clunker over a synthetic track two back, she hasn’t done much wrong; #10 CODE (5-1): Doesn’t draw a great post, but graduated two back before finishing a close-up second in her first try against winners. Flavien Prat likely had options, but he lands here, and that could be a clue.

R9

Luminous Beauty
Prime Aurora
Harper’s Corner

#8 LUMINOUS BEAUTY (3-1): Was an impressive second-out winner here last month, and her two workouts since that effort have been sharp. This is a wide-open renewal of the Schuylerville, but at a minimum, she seems to be in form, she draws a cushy outside post, and Prat stays aboard; #2 PRIME AURORA (9/2): Did everything right in her debut at Gulfstream, where she aired by nearly nine lengths. It’s anyone’s guess what she beat that day, but the time was sharp, and at least the runner-up came back to win at next asking; #6 HARPER’S CORNER (6-1): Led every step of the way at first asking at Laurel and is one of a few shipping in for solid mid-Atlantic outfits. Paco Lopez comes up for the day, and his presence is worth noting when he makes the trek up from New Jersey.

R10

Gulfy (MTO)
Glavine
Siyouincanada

#7 GLAVINE (4-1): Didn’t sit an ideal trip in the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge, where he sat off a slow pace and couldn’t outfinish the top three. There seems to be more zip here in the Saranac, which should play to his strengths, and perhaps he shows up with his best fastball here; #1 SIYOUINCANADA (9/2): Made every pole a winning one in his debut and should be forwardly-placed from the jump here. He’s taking quite a class jump, but that hints at confidence from these connections, as does the presence of Jose Ortiz; #11 ARIZONA TERRITORY (5/2): Will almost certainly be favored, and perhaps he’ll make me look silly, but I’ll try to beat him. The far-outside post position isn’t ideal, and he’ll have to run without Lasix for the first time. He wouldn’t be a shocking winner, but I can’t bet him at his likely price.

R11

Adrian (MTO)
Dividend Recap
Brokealltherules

#5 DIVIDEND RECAP (2-1): Was way too far back last time, when he sat 10th of 12 early and was left with too much to do. Manny Franco retains the mount, and I have to think he won’t want to make the same mistake twice in the Friday nightcap; #10 BROKEALLTHERULES (7/2): Stretches out to two turns and didn’t draw a strong post, but he seems like the main speed in this two-turn inner turf finale, and that’s always dangerous. The last-out runner-up came back to win Sunday at Aqueduct, which flatters him, and if anyone can work out a trip from the 10-hole, it’s Prat; #9 RIVER TAY (6-1): Won four in a row before coming to Saratoga last month, where he finished second and beat my top pick. He may be a bit pace-dependent, which hurts him, but he’s been very consistent dating back to last fall and can’t be ignored.

A Eulogy Of FanDuel TV

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

FanDuel TV (formerly known as TVG) has begun winding down operations. While the network will cover racing in some capacity through at least November, its studio shows are concluding, and much of the staff, both on-air and behind the camera, will no longer be employed by the company after this weekend.

This comes at a time when much of racing is contracting. I’d be remiss not to mention the upcoming closure of Aqueduct, which runs its last card on Sunday, and the uncertainty surrounding Hawthorne, which will come down to a decision-making process that figures to progress considerably next month.

Having said that, I’ve never been to either track, so I’m not the person to go to for tributes to them. I worked for TVG and the network formerly known as HRTV (rebranded to TVG2 in 2015) for 3 1/2 years. Moving west to take that job gave me a fresh start when I desperately needed one. I grew up quite a bit, and because of the move, I met the woman I eventually married. In some parallel universe somewhere, where the reason I left TVG in May of 2017 (also, for whatever it’s worth, the same reason a LOT of other talented, passionate people left TVG) doesn’t exist or is neutralized, I’m still there, still doing work I’m proud of, and almost certainly staring down the barrel of unemployment at the end of this month.

Of the recent racing-related business casualties, this is the one I can speak at length about.

– – – – –

First, and most importantly: There were people in horse racing who celebrated when FanDuel TV’s announcement came out earlier this year. Before we go any further, let me use this space to tell those people to take long walks off of short piers. Maybe you didn’t care for some aspects of FanDuel TV, TVG, or HRTV (and that’s your right; it comes with the territory), but I can say, with first-hand knowledge, that the networks employed more passionate horse racing people than any other outlet in the business. Those people have families, and they’re now looking for jobs. If you take joy in that, like the person in the below screenshot did, there’s a special place in hell waiting for you.

Now that that’s out of the way…

Sports betting content started to appear on what was then TVG in 2018 before the channel rebranded to FanDuel TV in 2022 (TVG2 was then rebranded for a second time, to FanDuel Racing). Some have said the writing was on the wall at that point, but I’m not sold. Rebrands aren’t cheap, this came with the development of a new FanDuel Racing website and app, and while the arrival of sports-focused programming hosted by the likes of Kay Adams and Michelle Beadle certainly carried additional costs, it’s not like this stopped them from airing horse races. I’m not saying parent company Flutter Entertainment saw horse racing as a cash cow when states began legalizing sports betting and online casinos, but acting as though the sport was a red-headed stepchild seems a bit misleading given the evidence.

I’ve also seen takes from some who have decided FanDuel TV’s demise has to do with the horse racing industry at large struggling. There’s a bit of merit to this given the data we have on hand (Ed DeRosa’s weekly tweets with numbers from tracks across the country are required viewing), but it’s also not fully correct, either. From what I’ve been able to dig up, FanDuel TV was hiring right up until this year’s announcement of bad news. That’s not the sign of a business that isn’t supported, nor one where a multi-billion-dollar company has said, “freeze spending, something’s coming.”

(On a somewhat-related note, I’ve also seen a few takes in the vein of, “FanDuel TV actively hurt horse racing.” While I’m not as angry about this take as the one I mentioned at the outset, this is also wrong. Like or dislike whatever programming you want, and pick nits about talent tickets and betting philosophies as much as you want, but having worked there and seen the numbers, hard data shows enhanced FanDuel TV coverage, and enhanced TVG and HRTV coverage before that, actively helped handle and revenue at a number of different tracks. If you didn’t care for certain hosts or content, that’s all well and good, but don’t say your preferences tell one story when data actively refutes it.)

I don’t have anything that would qualify as insider knowledge. I can only read the same tea leaves as everybody else, and the ones I’m seeing (mainly from Flutter Entertainment’s stock price) tell a defined story: As much as this will impact horse racing, and as painful as it is for so many good people within horse racing, this probably wasn’t entirely (maybe even not “mostly”) a horse racing decision.

– – – – –

Nearly 10 years after I left the TVG offices in west Los Angeles for the last time, I’m still proud of the work I did. We were faster at getting major race replays to YouTube than several major racing jurisdictions (to the point where one of them actively complained), and subscriptions to the YouTube channel I managed nearly tripled between when I started at TVG and when I was done. My digital-first content was some of the first of its kind in the industry, from “TVG Extra” track-centric broadcasts to my old “Pre-Game Periscope” show, back when that platform was a thing.

That didn’t come without some internal pushback (including at least one person referring to the space I recorded/broadcast from as the Wackycapsule; no time like the present to identify yourself, whoever you are!), but I wasn’t trying to make anything anyone else did worse or less meaningful. I was trying to get my own seat at the table, and given content everyone else in the space is now doing a decade later (from Twitter Spaces and podcasts to YouTube videos and social media hits), I’d say I was ahead of the game.

My heart breaks for the people I met when I was there. Contrary to what you might see from trolls on Twitter, 99.9% of them are good, solid people who give a damn about this game. We need people like that doing more in this industry, not less, and anything that doesn’t go in that direction is a terrible thing.

Outcry within the horse racing industry has been loud. People are justifiably sad as FanDuel TV personalities work their last shifts and thank those behind the scenes, people the average horseplayer doesn’t know but whose efforts have been considerable over the years.

FanDuel TV will still exist, to a point, for the next several months. Anchor, former colleague, and “friend who once roasted a bachelor party I attended at Disney World” Mike Joyce took to Instagram Friday and reminded followers that the network will still have remote broadcasts at Los Alamitos, Del Mar, and Keeneland through most of November. However, betting handle, which is already going the wrong way, figures to face another challenge, especially at smaller tracks FanDuel TV will no longer spotlight.

There are other media outlets within the game, of course. The NYRA/FOX Sports broadcasts include many former FanDuel TV and TVG employees, both on-air and behind the camera, and they do a great job. Simulcast feeds will still be offered through the RTN network led by Roberts Communications Network and ADW’s like TwinSpires and, yes, FanDuel Racing. A new venture called The Horse Whisperer Network (helmed by Randy Sarf of LSU Stables) has hired a few ex-FDTV people, and while I hope they do well, any guesses I’d make about content they’re set to produce would be just that, guesses.

It sure seems like there just aren’t enough spots for all of the people affected by this business decision, though. 1/ST TV, for instance, was once marketed as the successor to HRTV, but with the exception of a handful of previews for individual races, their site’s content is predominantly videos of workouts. These are immensely valuable, yes, but the interviews and extensive insight of the previous Stronach Group-owned media entity are almost completely absent. Between tracks closing and the daily struggles of the media industry at large, some people who have made significant contributions to the game won’t be around anymore, at least in the short term.

If ever there was a time for the heavy hitters in this sport to come together and do something to prevent/end a crisis, this would be it. That brings me to one final thought: Everyone in the upper crust of the racing industry who has said anything about this, including people who are worth billions and billions of dollars, thinks this is a terrible development that will hurt the game in the long run.

So what’s stopping them from doing something about it?

Santa Anita, California Racing, And Numbers That Don’t Tell The Story

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

The Alameda County Fair opens Friday. For most of the next month, those in Northern California can stop by to enjoy concerts, rides, fried food, and the general…well, fair fare.

What we won’t see, for the second straight summer, is the use of the oldest one-mile dirt track in America. Thoroughbred races in Northern California, of course, haven’t been contested since the fall of 2024.

I wrote about this when it happened, and time hasn’t healed the wounds. As if to throw salt in those wounds, Santa Anita Park’s “end of the meet” press release cited strong handle and attendance. The popular refrain when Northern California racing was “consolidated” was that doing so would save the product in the south.

Before we go much further, a necessary series of reminders: I moved west to work at Santa Anita in 2013. It’s one of the few remaining cathedrals in horse racing, a sport that’s unquestionably better when Santa Anita is humming. Without that move, lots of things change for me, both personally and professionally, and not in a positive way. For those reasons, and a few others, I want Santa Anita to succeed.

Having said that, I’ve looked at the numbers. For what they are, they’re…fine. However, there wasn’t nearly as much as there could have been.

Golden Gate Fields, at the time of its closing, handled roughly $3 million per day. Those were the expectations hoisted upon the ill-fated Golden State Racing venture, which ran Pleasanton in the fall of 2024. When the racing product didn’t meet those expectations (getting to a bit over $1 million per day by the end of the meet after a very rough start), future meets were doomed.

In 2024-25, the first Santa Anita meet without Northern California “competition,” handle rose 10 percent from 2023-24, and field size saw a five-percent bump. It’s…something, but it’s not a full absorption of the Golden Gate handle, by any means. This past meet, all-sources handle remained consistent. Per Horse Racing Nation, average daily handle topped $9 million for the sixth consecutive season. “Consistent” is good, but it shows the closure of Golden Gate Fields and the other NorCal tracks wasn’t the shot in the arm it was sold as.

This prompts a few questions, the first being…where did that Golden Gate handle actually go? The new “B-circuit” for Southern California is in Arizona, but while Turf Paradise’s renovations and upgrades have gotten rave reviews, a May Thoroughbred Daily News article says all-sources handle was up just one percent in a year-over-year comparison.

When Northern California ceased racing, Santa Anita officials made multiple public statements that included promises to NorCal horsepeople. They promised to run races for horses who had been stabled on that circuit, and they delivered on that promise…for a few months. After the first few months of the 2024-25 meet, those races disappeared. Many horses and horsepeople went to other locales (such as Emerald Downs, which had a fantastic 2025 season by basically absorbing handle left behind by the fair tracks), and remaining thoroughbreds from the former “B-circuit” that now had to go against top-tier stock generally ran like…well, horses from a former “B-circuit” that now had to go against top-tier stock.

Santa Anita also boasted that the influx of horses would even allow a return to four-day weeks at the Great Race Place. This never materialized.

Finally, while this provided a slight boost to numbers, consolidating racing to one circuit didn’t solve many of the biggest problems pertaining to California’s industry. Farms in the state aren’t breeding as many horses. Races in the state aren’t funded by subsidies or aided by other arms of the gambling industry. It’s hard to ship horses west to compete, and purses for certain races just aren’t what they are in equal-stature races elsewhere in the country.

I’ve made no secret that Pleasanton was my adopted home track (the folks at the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame even enlisted me to write about the fairs in “The Racetracks of America,” something I’ll always be proud of). In a sport where it’s hard to be a fan sometimes, Pleasanton and other fair tracks like Santa Rosa, Fresno, and Ferndale made it easy (Sacramento, not so much; I’m sorry, but that place was a furnace in the summer). With all due respect to tracks like Saratoga, which have plenty of draws for kids and newbies to be introduced to the game we love, there was no lower barrier to entry for fans anywhere in the country than at Northern California fair tracks.

My friend Dennis Miller, with whom I co-hosted daily handicapping seminars outside the Pleasanton grandstand, wrote an article for a local publication this week. It featured some notes from a chat he had with owner, breeder, and NorCal racing ambassador George Schmitt, a truly great guy. The article expresses reason for optimism, which is rare in this industry of late.

Should something materialize at Pleasanton and other fair tracks in the northern part of the Golden State, nobody will be happier about it than yours truly. All of this, however, begs a final, damning question…with a year and a half of hindsight, what good did the cessation of horse racing in Northern California actually do for anything that matters?

If anyone can come up with a positive answer, I’d love to hear it.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll for Sunday, June 7th

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $245.65

We’ll be back in a few weeks for the summer meet, which this year goes 46 days, not the traditional 40. However, let me finish off the week with a simple reminder: Enjoy the magic of Saratoga, because it’s not that way elsewhere.

I’ll be spending most of Sunday in Pleasanton, California, just down the road from the Alameda County Fair. Those fairgrounds house my adopted home track, which, along with the rest of Northern California, will be without racing for a second straight year.

I could go on and on about this situation, but I only have so much space. Simply put, savor what you have this week as the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival draws to a close. Racing fans in too many other areas are seeing their tracks wither and die, and that’s a real shame.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Book’em Danno wasn’t a huge price, but he wasn’t favored in the Grade 3 True North, and we cashed. A $30 win bet returned $85.80, a $5 double ending in the Jaipur returned $104.85, and we got back $190.65 after an initial $50 investment.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to try to extract value from my best bet of the day. That’s #9 BOOKED in the sixth, and I’ll start with a $50 win bet on him. In addition, I’ll have him singled to finish $10 doubles that start in the fifth with #2 TRUMAN’S COMMANDER, #9 DILIELLO, and #10 JOKER ON FIRE. See you in July!

TOTAL WAGERED: $80.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Booked, Race 6
Longshot: New York Special, Race 2

R1

Timia (MTO)
All of It
Neshika

#2 ALL OF IT (5/2): Didn’t do a single thing wrong in her debut back in April, where she routed a field of overmatched maidens despite rating behind a very moderate pace. This is a jump up in class, but improvement is logical at second asking and she could be a good one; #5 NESHIKA (9/2): Ran well in her first start off a six-month break, as she hit the front in the stretch before settling for a close second. She gets Lasix for the first time here, and Flavien Prat stays aboard when he likely had several options; #6 COSMIC CANDY GIRL (6-1): Hasn’t finished worse than third in six career tries, and she narrowly missed at this route a season ago. She’s got some tactical speed and could sit an ideal trip beneath Kendrick Carmouche.

R2

New York Special
Soaring Spirit
Coach of the Year

#2 NEW YORK SPECIAL (6-1): Debuted at a tricky seven-furlong route, but showed some speed and ran a good second. Her pedigree says she wants distance and that she should be able to handle the turf, so this two-turn route on the grass should hit her right between the eyes; #7 SOARING SPIRIT (7/2): Was a close second in her unveiling downstate for high-percentage connections and isn’t a bad favorite. She’s another that could step forward with a start under her belt; #4 COACH OF THE YEAR (6-1): Hasn’t been seen since November but returns for a barn that can get horses ready to run off the bench. She may be a bit pace-dependent, but she gets Lasix for the first time and she showed improvement from her first start to her second.

R3

Scottish Lassie
Filly Freedom
Limes Don’t Lie

#3 SCOTTISH LASSIE (4/5): Comes back off a long break after a 2025 campaign that included a runaway score in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks. The layoff is a concern, but we know she loves this track and she’s been working steadily since March. If she’s anywhere close to ready, she’s going to be very tough; #5 FILLY FREEDOM (4-1): Broke through last time out with a solid, professional win going seven furlongs downstate. This feels like the right route for her, as she’s got enough tactical speed to sit close without needing the lead in order to run well; #1 LIMES DON’T LIE (6-1): Has had some gate issues in her career, and the rail draw isn’t ideal for a runner with that sort of history. However, she’s never been worse than third in five career tries, and perhaps she needed her May return given the nine-month gap in her running lines.

R4

Ignite the Light (MTO)
Zulu Kingdom
Salamis

#2 ZULU KINGDOM (4/5): Earned his second Grade 1 win last time out at Keeneland and looks to have the nuts in the Grade 3 Poker. One of his two career defeats came by DQ here last year (in a truly puzzling decision that still baffles me to this day), but provided he avoids situations like that, it’ll be hard for these rivals to top him; #7 SALAMIS (5/2): Is the “other” Chad Brown, and he’s a Grade 1 winner, too. He took the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby at Del Mar in November, and while he hasn’t raced since, he’s certainly eligible to improve going from age three to age four; #4 CAPITOL HILL (8-1): Comes back into stakes company after back-to-back allowance wins. He may be a bit pace-dependent, which is a problem given how the turf has played this week, but he looks like an improving sort who’ll be going the right way late.

R5

Joker On Fire
Truman’s Commander
Diliello

#10 JOKER ON FIRE (7/2): Has found his footing on turf with a two-back score followed by a solid second on the step up in class. The far-outside post isn’t ideal, but he’s also not facing any world-beaters in here, and it’s possible he moves forward second off the bench; #2 TRUMAN’S COMMANDER (10-1): Is worth a look at a price given his back class. He hasn’t raced since January, but he kept solid company as a 2-year-old, has shown some early speed, and seems to be working well for Mark Casse; #9 DILIELLO (12-1): Picked up three checks here a season ago and has since broken his maiden. He’s been off since November, but he gets Lasix for the first time and Tom Morley can get horses like this ready to run.

R6

Booked
Just a Holiday
Beach Sandals

#9 BOOKED (3-1): Didn’t break well in his debut at Churchill, but did enough to salvage second money. He was favored that day, he’s worked well since then, and between his experience edge over many of these and the improved outside draw, I think there’s a ton to like; #3 JUST A HOLIDAY (9/2): Hammered for $800,000 at auction last year at Keeneland and debuts for Wesley Ward, one of the best in the business with first-out 2-year-olds. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because his pedigree, while very strong, hints that he actually wants to go longer than this 5 1/2-furlong route; #6 BEACH SANDALS (6-1): Showed speed in his unveiling before fading to finish second. Casse trainees sometimes need a race or two to get going, and the lone local workout looks solid enough.

R7

Complex Agenda
Gene and Jude
The Paddock Pastor

#1 COMPLEX AGENDA (9/2): Looks like the main speed in here and draws a picture-perfect inside post in his second start off a three-month break. Given how strong early speed has been this week, the gameplan here seems pretty straightforward, and I think he makes every pole a winning one; #3 GENE AND JUDE (7/2): Stomped a field of restricted claimers last time out at Churchill, and he’s hit the board twice in as many starts at the Spa. This is a significant step up the class ladder, but Prat rides back for Mike Maker, and perhaps he’s turned a corner as a 4-year-old; #12 THE PADDOCK PASTOR (6-1): Draws a terrible far-outside post, but he ran well in his 2026 debut given some slow internal fractions. He likely needs a pace to run at, but if he gets one and is able to save any ground, he could come running for a piece of it.

R8

Niche (MTO)
Slay the Day
Cadenza

#4 SLAY THE DAY (6/5): Won the Grade 3 Limestone two back at Keeneland before chasing Cy Fair in the Grade 3 Mamzelle. That one isn’t in this field, and that makes the Grade 3 Soaring Softly a drop in class. If she runs her usual race, she’ll be a handful; #3 CADENZA (4-1): Is 2-for-2 on turf, and one of those wins came at this route back in August. She may be a few lengths back early, but if the early pace is swift, she stands to benefit; #5 KINGSOLVER (8-1): Tried turf for the first time a month ago and was second behind my second choice. It’s possible the grass is what she wants, and her record looks a lot better if you toss her clunker in the Grade 2 Beaumont, which came over a muddy track.

R9

Secured Landing
Mr Skylight
Gatsby

#6 SECURED LANDING (6-1): Has won three in a row and has been very popular at the claiming box. Linda Rice has him now, and he looks like the main speed in here. If he clears and gets comfortable early, he could be hard to reel in; #5 MR SKYLIGHT (10-1): Won as a heavy favorite two back before being left with too much to do last time out. He adds blinkers for new trainer Rob Falcone, and he’s got back races that would give him a chance if he can find that form; #1 GATSBY (9/2): Won two in a row to end 2025 before finishing third in January and going to the sidelines. Those were his first two wins in quite a while, but they came after he was claimed by this barn in August.

R10

Toscano
Long Pour
Mo for the King

#1 TOSCANO (6-1): is a tepid top pick in a wide-open first-level allowance. He was second in a swiftly-run race for the level downstate, and while he was a 4/5 favorite that day, he gets Flavien Prat and has enough speed to establish position from the inside draw; #12 LONG POUR (4-1): Comes back to the state-bred ranks after racing against better foes at Gulfstream and Keeneland. He also gets back to the dirt, which seems like his preferred surface, and he broke his maiden here last year in wire-to-wire fashion; #8 MO FOR THE KING (5-1): Looked very impressive two back against starter allowance foes before flopping against open company. This is probably a weaker spot, and he’s another with early speed at a track where that’s been rewarded.

R11

Irish Goodbye
King Farro
Roadie

#11 IRISH GOODBYE (5/2): Has run second twice at this level downstate and has speed figures that outclass this bunch in the Sunday finale. The outside post helps, as does a sharp recent drill, and this hits me as a formful end to the five-day festival; #4 KING FARRO (4-1): Was rushed to the front after a bobble at the break last time, but still held on for third in his first try since October. He’s fired a recent bullet drill over the Oklahoma track, and he could be sharper second off the bench; #3 ROADIE (10-1): Hasn’t raced in over a year, but goes to Todd Pletcher’s barn and runs after receiving the ultimate equipment change (he’ll race as a first-time gelding). His lone outing to date is a throw-out due to a terrible break, and I think he could be sitting on an improved performance at a price.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll for Saturday, June 6th (BELMONT DAY)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $105

As backup plans go, running the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga has worked out about as well as can be expected. A community that supports horse racing as much as any in the world has rallied around the festival in each of the last three years, and it’s been a blast to watch from afar in my new home of Northern California.

Having said that, allow me to say a word of caution. If anyone out there thinks this is justification to support a longer summer meet on an annual basis, it’s not. This year’s summer meet has been extended to 46 days by the construction. Let’s get Belmont squared away, and then get back to 40-day meets at the Spa without adding more dates and spreading the product too thin.

Saratoga’s special in large part because it doesn’t last long. Let’s not ruin that.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Hero Declared had every chance with a stalking trip but never kicked on in his return to the races. I dropped $50.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: My biggest play is a “play against.” I’ll try to beat #3 BENTORNATO in the eighth, the Grade 3 True North. I’ll have a $30 win bet on my top pick, #6 BOOK’EM DANNO, and I’ll have $5 doubles starting there with Book’em Danno and #2 IMAGINATION and ending in the ninth (the Grade 1 Jaipur) with #5 REEF RUNNER and #10 MY BOY PRINCE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Book’em Danno, Race 8
Longshot: Trust Fund, Race 6

R1

Cold Spell
Nakoma
Crowning Glory

#4 COLD SPELL (3/5): Looks likely to start the Belmont Day program off on a chalky note. Her debut was a sharp one, she’s worked well since that effort, and that day’s third-place finisher has since come back to win. There’s just not much to nitpick here; #6 NAKOMA (10-1): Ran third in her unveiling on turf downstate and gets Lasix for the first time. This barn’s runners tend to improve with experience, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see her move forward at a bit of a price; #7 CROWNING GLORY (8-1): Is a regally-bred filly, being by Uncle Mo and out of top-notch mare Close Hatches. Bill Mott trainees sometimes need a race to get going, but it would be far from shocking if she was a runner.

R2

Senior Officer
Life and Times
Incentive Pay

#9 SENIOR OFFICER (2-1): Hasn’t run a bad one in four starts to date and should be able to sit an ideal trip stalking just off the pace. His last two workouts in Kentucky were both very good, and with this being just his fifth start, he may still have room to move forward; #3 LIFE AND TIMES (9/5): Drops back down in class for this one and cuts back to one turn. His two efforts downstate late last year were fine, but I wonder if he’ll be able to get his preferred trip on the lead against a field that includes others with significant early zip; #4 INCENTIVE PAY (5-1): Improved second off the long layoff to clear his first-level condition last time out and returns to the track where he ran third in the 2024 Grade 1 Hopeful. He showed a bit more tactical speed last time out, and he’s another that’s eligible to improve.

R3

Le Gris (MTO)
Tenacious Leader
Intellect

#6 TENACIOUS LEADER (5-1): Ran fifth last time out, but that came against a field closer to graded stakes company than usual optional claimers. The top three finishers from that race all came back to win, and this one showed plenty of form last fall before going to the sidelines; #8 INTELLECT (6/5): Has tons of back class and figures to be favored, but I have some doubts. It didn’t seem like he had much of an excuse last time at this level, and it was his fifth straight “underneath” finish since coming to America. At his likely short price, I can’t back him on top; #9 CANDYTOWN (4-1): Hasn’t raced since November but has shown he can make up ground against talented horses. It seems like there’s some speed signed on, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here when he likely had several options.

R4

Steer Clear
Naive Melody
Helen’s Revenge

#3 STEER CLEAR (7/2): Ran well here twice a season ago before fading to fourth in the Grade 1 Frizette, and we haven’t seen her since. She’s been working consistently for three months, though, and if the most recent drill is any indication, she’s ready to run; #2 NAIVE MELODY (3-1): Came off a long layoff with aplomb in April, when she cruised home over state-bred company. This is a tougher spot, but inside speed has been a plus this week at Saratoga, and it wouldn’t be shocking if she’s up top early on; #7 HELEN’S REVENGE (8-1): Comes up the class ladder after three wins in a row for Linda Rice. This isn’t the easiest field for the level, and the track hasn’t played kindly to outside-drawn closers, but she’s clearly in form and has at least shown some tactical speed in the past.

R5

Brunch With Amy (MTO)
Curlin’s Angel
Eponine

#6 CURLIN’S ANGEL (5-1): Ran like a horse that needed a race last time out at Laurel, and she gets considerable class relief. In addition to running against weaker foes, she gets to compete with Lasix, which should move her forward considerably over a course she’s shown an affinity for; #2 EPONINE (3-1): Was one-paced when third in last year’s Grade 2 Lake Placid, and we haven’t seen her since. She’s been training at Woodbine, and the workouts seem solid, but she also hasn’t won since February of 2025, so I’m wary at her likely short price; #8 SCARLETT’S HALO (6-1): Finished third in her 2026 debut, which was her first try since late-September. She should be sharper second off the bench for Chad Brown, who has enlisted Flavien Prat to hop aboard.

R6

Local Knowledge
Sea Strike
Trust Fund

#5 LOCAL KNOWLEDGE (5/2): Won professionally at first asking at Keeneland in October but has been on the sidelines since. She’s been working well for Todd Pletcher, though, and if she’s the horse she was in that unveiling, she could easily run her record to 2-for-2; #8 SEA STRIKE (4-1): Was another debut winner, as she rallied from seventh to get the money at Aqueduct in late-April. She didn’t break well that day, but she overcame the slow start without much of an issue. She may need to break sharper against this bunch, but there’s also a lot of speed in here, too, and that could help her; #12 TRUST FUND (30-1): Merits a look at a bonkers price. He loves Saratoga and has historically done his best running late. With the likely race shape, I won’t be surprised if he clunks up for a piece of it at a big number.

R7

Segesta
Classic Q
Mandanaba

#3 SEGESTA (7/5): Comes into the Grade 1 Just a Game off of back-to-back wins at this level. Her misfire in last year’s renewal was likely due to the yielding turf course, which she doesn’t figure to see on Saturday. She seems probable to sit her preferred “stalk and pounce” trip, and that would make her very dangerous; #1 CLASSIC Q (6-1): Sure looks like the main speed, which is always dangerous in two-turn races on the inner turf. If she’s able to get comfortable, she could get brave and be tough to catch as the field turns for home; #4 MANDANABA (9/2): Ships in from Europe and goes second off the bench for a very, very strong outfit. She’s Grade 1-placed in her native France, and she’s run up against some heavy hitters over there. It wouldn’t be shocking if she fits in with these.

R8

Book’em Danno
Imagination
Bentornato

#6 BOOK’EM DANNO (2-1): Was a hard-luck second in his 2026 debut downstate in the Grade 2 Carter, but I think he takes a step forward here in the Grade 3 True North. He’s 4-for-5 over this track, including a win in last year’s renewal. If he’s the horse he was a year ago, which seems likely, I’d argue he should be favored; #2 IMAGINATION (4-1): Comes in for Bob Baffert and may have been a bit jet-lagged when fourth in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs. That was a fairly quick turnaround after a trip to Saudi Arabia. If Baffert has him right, last year’s runner-up in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint could be live; #3 BENTORNATO (8/5): Merits respect, but I have some questions. This barn has cooled off considerably following a monster year in 2025, and the last two works at Churchill, while fine, don’t jump off the page. Maybe he makes me look silly, but I’ll try to beat him.

R9

Reef Runner
My Boy Prince
Ag Bullet

#5 REEF RUNNER (4-1): Is well-traveled, having won in Saudi Arabia before a fourth-place finish in the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai. He comes in here off of several excellent drills in Florida, and he figures to get the super-firm turf course he relishes in a wide-open renewal of the Grade 1 Jaipur; #10 MY BOY PRINCE (5-1): Came a bit too late with his run when fourth in the Grade 2 Turf Sprint at Churchill last time out. Prior to that, he won the Grade 2 Shakertown at Keeneland, and he seems to be coming into form at five for Mark Casse; #6 AG BULLET (3-1): Makes her first start since November, and her 2025 campaign included a win in this race. The layoff is a question mark, but John Velazquez knows her well and she’s got tactical speed without necessarily needing the lead, which could be valuable.

R10

Crude Velocity
Englishman
Gilded Bandit

#6 CRUDE VELOCITY (9/5): Has done nothing wrong so far, going 3-for-3 ahead of a try in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens. He ran very, very fast to take the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile five weeks ago, and if he’s the same horse here, I think he’ll be tough to top; #7 ENGLISHMAN (3-1): Threw everything but the kitchen sink at my top pick last time out and ran well, but had to settle for second money. Perhaps the cutback to seven furlongs will help him, as he looked fantastic in two sprint wins before that effort; #1 GILDED BANDIT (8-1): Has shown an ability to rate and pass horses, which could help in a race heavy on early zip. He’ll run without Lasix, which is a concern, but his two-back bullet here hints that he’s doing well and he should be going the right way late.

R11

Nysos
Saudi Crown
Journalism

#1 NYSOS (9/5): Ran a close second to Forever Young in the Group 1 Saudi Cup, and there’s no shame at all running second to that one. The Grade 1 Met Mile has been the target all along for this one, and the inside draw only makes me more bullish. If he gets the desired stalking trip, he’ll loom large; #4 SAUDI CROWN (8-1): Has shown he’s tough when he gets to the lead, and his last-out score in the Grade 3 Commonwealth at Keeneland was sharp. He figures to dictate terms early on, and if the track is playing kindly to speed, he could throw down a stiff challenge turning for home; #7 JOURNALISM (5/2): Is impossible to dislike as a consistent, hard-trying colt, but the post position is a concern. Outside posts just don’t do well out of the Wilson chute, and it’s also fair to wonder if he’s plateaued. He may need to improve to win this, and whether or not he’s capable of another step forward is a fair thing to ponder.

R12

Rhetorical
Bright Picture
Test Score

#7 RHETORICAL (2-1): Made every pole a winning one in the Grade 1 Turf Classic and is a logical choice in the Grade 1 Manhattan. He doesn’t need the lead, but his tactical speed may mean he winds up there anyway, and giving a talented horse like this an easy trip usually leads to good things; #6 BRIGHT PICTURE (3-1): Comes over from France and has competed against some of his country’s best horses. He’s won two stakes this year and run second in another, and if you’re not familiar with trainer Andre Fabre, look up some of the races he’s won over the years; #2 TEST SCORE (12-1): Ran too poorly to be true last time out, and if he gets back to his usual form here, I don’t think he’s without a shot. He’s a two-time Grade 1 winner that has run well over this turf course, and if you draw a line through the aforementioned clunker, it’s not like he’s done much wrong. 

R13

Renegade
Emerging Market
Golden Tempo

#4 RENEGADE (2-1): Did everything but win in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, and it feels like the stars are aligning in the Grade 1 Belmont. The smaller field usually means less chaos and fewer variables, which should give him the cleaner trip he didn’t get five weeks ago beneath the Twin Spires; #8 EMERGING MARKET (6-1): Was 10th in the Derby, but that was just his third career start, which made things very, very difficult. He also lost a shoe during the race, and by all indications, he’s rebounded to train well coming into the final leg of racing’s Triple Crown; #9 GOLDEN TEMPO (9/2): Merits a ton of respect after the Derby win, and it’d be a great story if he and Saratoga Springs native Cherie DeVaux won this race, too. However, there doesn’t seem to be much pace signed on, and he capitalized on an ideal setup on the first Saturday in May. He’s talented, but such a setup seems unlikely to materialize again here.

R14

Pagode (MTO)
Sounds Like a Plan
Outrunner

#12 SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN (9/2): Has drawn a terrible post in the last of 14 races on the program, but he’s 3-for-3 with Lasix and sure looks like the main speed in the race. He’ll likely try to clear this field very quickly, and if he does, I think he might be tough to run down; #10 OUTRUNNER (5-1): Hasn’t won since a first-out score in late-2024, but he ran in some tough spots last year and is training well ahead of his first try since November. If he’s ready to run and can save some ground from this post, he’ll have every chance; #8 ELNAJD (5-1): Tries turf for the first time, and does so against a solid field. However, his bottom-side pedigree says he’ll love the lawn, and he’s shown tactical speed in three prior starts on dirt.