BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

It’s been a heck of a 10-month period for me since we last did this. Among other highlights, I’ve gotten engaged, climbed mountains in England, eaten mountains of food in Italy, and benefited from an arrangement that will also see my content published in the New York Daily News.

Now, the work starts. A quick rundown for those new to the party: I’ll be giving out at least one play a day in hopes of growing my mythical $1,000 betting stake. While my picks and analysis will be live on AndrewChampagne.com two days in advance, these won’t be posted until the previous day’s action has concluded (if I could post them further in advance, after all, I’d never lose).

Let’s dive in, shall we?

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I sincerely hope we get the morning line price on #4 OLLIEMYBOY in the fifth. If he doesn’t go favored, that hits me as an overlay. We’ll start things off with a $20 win bet on that one, plus a $10 cold double starting with him and ending with #2 RUNNINGWSCISSORS in the sixth (as a reminder, plays in all turf races assume they stay on the grass).

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Olliemyboy, Race 5
Longshot: Need Some Money, Race 7

R1

Virtual Reality
Sabra Tuff
Bustin Bay

#1 VIRTUAL REALITY (3-1): Got up to win at first asking downstate in late-May and stretches out to two turns here. However, she’s got the pedigree to want every bit of this trip, being by Preakness winner Cloud Computing and out of a mare with stamina-heavy bloodlines; #6 SABRA TUFF (3-1): Has faced nothing but stakes rivals since winning her debut in June of 2022 and should appreciate the class drop. The addition of Lasix also figures to be a plus, and the last-out clunker seems too bad to be true; #5 BUSTIN BAY (5/2): Crushed a field of state-bred rivals last time out at Belmont Park and has won twice in five local outings at the Spa. The hesitation here isn’t the talent, but the two-turn trip. She’s never gone this far before in 32 lifetime starts, so that’s a legitimate concern.

R2

Lady Moscato
Empire Island
Soca

#6 LADY MOSCATO (3-1): Debuted with a decent second at Ellis Park and is one of just two horses in this field with prior experience. She’s a full sister to Grade 1 winner Salty, and the most recent gate work at Churchill indicates she’s bounced out of her unveiling in strong fashion; #2 EMPIRE ISLAND (5/2): Has turned in several flashy works beneath the Twin Spires and figures to be favored. She may have the talent to win this, but her distance-heavy pedigree means she may want much longer than this 5 1/2-furlong trip; #4 SOCA (6-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher, who must always be respected with first-time starters. She’s a half-sister to Double Thunder, who won a Grade 3 as a 2-year-old, and she attracts Flavien Prat, who’s been riding as well as anyone in the country.

R3

Smokin’ Hot Kitty
Liana B
La Aguililla

#4 SMOKIN’ HOT KITTY (7/2): Came back to form last time out, when she made up lots of ground late and missed by a nose. She earned the diploma at this route last summer, and there’s plenty of speed in this turf sprint to set up for her late kick; #8 LIANA B (5-1): Went wire-to-wire at Monmouth last time out and tries winners for the first time here. Luis Saez, one of the top gate riders anywhere, sees fit to ride, and that could be a tough tandem to beat give this one’s ample early zip; #10 LA AGUILILLA (6-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but comes back to the turf and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr., two switches that can’t be ignored. She ran well in a few early-2023 turf sprints and could have options from the outside post.

R4

Salimah
Kalifornia Queen
Sister Otoole

#5 SALIMAH (8/5): Makes her first start since the Grade 1 American Oaks and is half of a Chad Brown duo that looks very tough. She won a classy overnight stakes race before shipping west to Santa Anita, and the return of Lasix in her 4-year-old debut can’t be overlooked; #6 KALIFORNIA QUEEN (4-1): Hasn’t won since June of 2021 but has spent most of that time going up against graded stakes competition. This is just her fifth start since October of 2021, so there have probably been some issues here, but her best effort would give her a big chance; #2 SISTER OTOOLE (6-1): Comes in off of a long layoff, but does so for Graham Motion, who gets horses prepared to go off of long breaks as well as anybody. This distance may be a bit short for her, but there are some classy names in her prior running lines that hint she’s a threat if she’s ready.

R5

Olliemyboy
Dust Devil
Two Thirty Five

#4 OLLIEMYBOY (3-1): Won for a $62,500 tag two starts ago and drops in for less than a third of that price here. He’s been gelded since a last-out clunker at Churchill Downs, and this is an aggressive owner/trainer combination that isn’t afraid to lose horses via the claim box. A repeat of that two-back effort would make him incredibly formidable; #2 DUST DEVIL (4-1): Comes in off of back-to-back second-place finishes downstate against similar company, and he made up a lot of ground late in his most recent outing. Prat sees fit to ride back when he had some options, and he should be going well late; #9 TWO THIRTY FIVE (8-1): Is one of a few 9-year-olds in here, but has shown he still has some gas in the tank. This 13-time winner has proven two-turn form, and his usual effort seems like enough to get a piece of this purse at a bit of a price.

R6

Amundson (MTO)
Runningwscissors
Yarrow

#2 RUNNINGWSCISSORS (8/5): Looms large in his return to state-bred competition after two runs against open company. His sharp win two back saw him earn a career-high 94 Beyer Speed Figure, and while this isn’t a bad group for the level, a similar effort would have the rest of them running for second money; #6 YARROW (4-1): Returns to what’s probably his favorite track, one where he’s never finished worse than third in three local tries. He didn’t get any pace to run at last time going a bit longer, and I think he’ll be much more comfortable here given a decent amount of early speed around him; #7 PHANTOM SMOKE (6-1): Had every right to need his last-out effort given that it was his first try in five months, but he ran a credible third at a bit of a price. The rider switch to Prat is a big one, and he’s another that’s shown an affinity for this turf course in the past.

R7

Need Some Money
Sa Foradada
Condiment Girl

#11 NEED SOME MONEY (8-1): Looks a heck of a lot better if you toss her two-turn efforts. I simply think she’s far better in one-turn races, and that this seven-furlong trip hits her right between the eyes. She should also benefit from a fast pace in front of her and hits me as a live longshot; #5 SA FORADADA (5-1): Has run second on four straight occasions, but gets both blinkers and Irad Ortiz, Jr., here. She makes her second start off a long layoff and has run well going seven furlongs in the past, so there’s plenty to like; #9 CONDIMENT GIRL (7/2): Has proven tough to catch when she gets the early lead, and she seems like the fastest of this bunch out of the gate. Robertino Diodoro can win with new acquisitions, and she fits on speed figures; the question is, can she handle this step up in class out of a $30,000 beaten claimer last month?

R8

My Sea Cottage
Kingfish Stevens
Born a Gambler

#4 MY SEA COTTAGE (7/2): Has done nothing but fire since returning from a long break in December, and has been the victim of a few hard-luck losses downstate. His two wins have come going two turns, and his early speed should be an asset over this inner turf course; #5 KINGFISH STEVENS (5-1): Has made middle moves several times in his past few starts, and I’m guessing that’s part of why blinkers go on today. He was a credible fourth in a stakes race on the Preakness undercard two starts ago, and he’s a win candidate if he turns up more focused in this spot; #2 BORN A GAMBLER (6-1): Won for the first time in a while a couple of weeks ago, when he responded to a drop in class and rallied to get the money. He merits some respect off of the last-out effort, but he’ll have to manage stretching out to two turns and jumping back up the class ladder.

R9

Wine On Tap
Sugar Treat
Saratoga Secret

#7 WINE ON TAP (5/2): Never looked like a loser in her unveiling at Belmont and is a logical favorite in the Grade 3 Schuylerville. The additional furlong should pose no problem for this daughter of Tapit, and a win by her would give Pletcher a seventh Schuylerville win; #11 SUGAR TREAT (6-1): Overcame significant trouble in her debut, where she checked several times, lost ground, and somehow found a way to win. The outside post should give she and Prat smoother sailing, and if she transfers the synthetic form to Saratoga’s dirt track, she could be a major player; #5 SARATOGA SECRET (4-1): Was never seriously troubled in her first-out win at Ellis Park, and that day’s rider, Luis Saez, stays aboard for her first try against winners. Her lone work since that race was sharp, and like his former assistant trainer, D. Wayne Lukas is aiming for his seventh Schuylerville Thursday afternoon.

R10

Stone of Destiny
Here We Go Again
Pimenova

#4 STONE OF DESTINY (9/2): Was last of seven in her debut, but she had an excuse that day given a rough trip. David Donk’s horses often need a race or two to get going, the class drop should help her find her footing, and it’s encouraging that John Velazquez stays aboard in the Opening Day finale; #10 HERE WE GO AGAIN (4-1): Hasn’t raced since November, but returns for a barn that hits at a 29% clip with new acquisitions. She showed some early speed a season ago, and I’m anticipating Saez will have her up close throughout in her 3-year-old debut; #11 PIMENOVA (8-1): Doesn’t draw a spectacular post but should certainly appreciate stretching out to two turns. Her best races in 2022 came at similar routes of ground, and she exits a decent third-place effort going a bit shorter at Belmont in mid-June.