BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $930.25

A few days after the spat between NYRA and Churchill Downs, bettors once again took it on the chin Saturday. Two stakes races being cancelled meant multi-race exotics sequences with those races were cancelled, too, and highly-publicized two-day wagers, per rules and regulations, had multiple legs pay out to “ALL,” which penalized anyone who had a strong opinion and bet accordingly.

NYRA had to do something, especially after the events of a year ago (when multiple fatalities occurred over wet turf courses). I don’t begrudge them for moving races and attempting to preserve them, rather than moving everything to the dirt or running on the turf and letting the chips fall where they may. There were no good options, just ones that stunk less than others.

However, the frustrations of bettors were loud and completely understandable. Rain was in the forecast several days out, yet nothing was communicated until an hour before Saturday’s first race. This looked really bad, and there had to have been a better way to do this. That’s a refrain that’s becoming more and more common every time racing is faced with a challenge and deals with it in a way that gives the betting public the short end of the stick.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Antietam was nowhere close to Ferocious, who’s probably the best 2-year-old we’ve seen to this point in the meet. After cancellations, I dropped $12.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m hoping we stay on the turf, because there’s a first-time starter I like quite a bit in the seventh. That’s #8 MAY DAY READY, who hits me as a big overlay at or near the 12-1 morning line price. I’ll have a $20 win ticket on that one, as well as $5 exactas above #4 LOVE TEMPO and #9 BALLERINA D’ORO and $3 exactas with her below those horses.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: White Sands, Race 9
Longshot: May Day Ready, Race 7

R1

Limes Don’t Lie
Ragtime
First Class Lady

#1 LIMES DON’T LIE (2-1): Is a tepid top pick in what looks like a loaded 2-year-old maiden event. She fetched $190,000 at auction and has been working very well for Chad Brown, who can certainly get a first-time starter ready to go; #5 RAGTIME (9/2): Is a Godolphin homebred trained by Bill Mott, which indicates she may want more time or more distance. However, her bottom-side pedigree is outstanding, and she’s another that’s been training very, very well; #3 FIRST CLASS LADY (5/2): Sold for $900,000 as a yearling last year, and for good reason. Her dam is kin to globe-trotting sprinter Lady Aurelia, and while the recent works have been a touch slow, it wouldn’t be shocking if she’s precocious.

R2

Next
Masqueparade
Time for Trouble

#5 NEXT (1/9): It’s not often you see a 1/9 morning line favorite, but this one is worthy of that designation. He’s clearly the best dirt marathoner in the country, and he faces a short field of runners in the Birdstone, a few of which he’s thumped in the past; #2 MASQUEPARADE (6-1): Is one of those horses that’s chased Next several times, but he’s got talent and likes Saratoga. He was a close-up third two back in the Grade 2 Suburban, where he was beaten less than a length; #4 TIME FOR TROUBLE (8-1): Gets a rider switch to Flavien Prat for this one and was fourth in the Suburban behind my second choice. The pedigree says he wants to run all day, and honestly, someone has to finish third in what seems like a one-horse race.

R3

Colloquy
Higher Quality
Kahala

#6 COLLOQUY (2-1): Isn’t an easy price to stomach, but looks like a closer in a race otherwise full of early speed. He’s won at this route before and exits an optional claimer that, despite being against New York-breds, was probably a much better group than this one; #4 HIGHER QUALITY (4-1): Has stepped forward since a trainer switch earlier this year and exits a third-place finish in a similar spot. That day’s winner got comfortable early and never stopped, and this is another that would benefit from a meltdown; #2 KAHALA (8-1): Merits a look at a price shipping in from Kentucky for trainer Tom Amoss. He’s got some early speed, but his ideal trip is a stalking one, and that could give him first run turning for home.

R4

Bearings (MTO)
Kick a Buck
Sugar Hook

#8 KICK A BUCK (8/5): Drops in for a tag for the first time against what is, to be kind, a pretty uninspiring group. His race last time out was a dud, but anything close to his two or three-back efforts would make him a handful; #3 SUGAR HOOK (6-1): Goes back to the turf and could benefit from being a speed horse in a race otherwise light on early zip. His last-out effort is a toss, since it was rained onto the main track, and he’s got some two-turn form at Fair Grounds and Churchill that isn’t terrible; #11 JOHN THE BAPTIST (8-1): Showed some late interest in his first start for a tag last time out. His debut in April at Tampa wasn’t a bad effort, either, and I think he’s got a shot if he can work out a trip from a tricky outside post.

R5

Rice entry (MTO)
In Our Time
Linarite

#6 IN OUR TIME (5/2): Takes a drop in class after chasing stakes foes in the Coronation Cup last month. She faces older here, but she does so in a race that’s drawn a bunch of runners that have been at this level a while without breaking through, and the trainer switch to Saffie Joseph is a big one; #7 LINARITE (10-1): Always comes running late and was a close-up second against state-breds not long ago. She hasn’t won in a long time, but she’s also never missed the board in three prior tries at this route; #2 U SHOULD B DANCING (8-1): Is another closer that hasn’t found the winner’s circle in a while, but she was second here last time out in a race that’s already produced a next-out winner. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back, and at a minimum, we know she likes it here.

R6

Twirling Lulu
Boston’s Phinest
Scythian

#4 TWIRLING LULU (7/2): Breaks a stretch of morning line favorites I’m not proud of, but hey, if a card looks chalky, I can’t lie and tell you otherwise. This filly has been working well for Bruce Levine, who can win with first-time starters, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., who doesn’t ride for this barn much, could be a clue; #3 BOSTON’S PHINEST (3-1): Sold for $190,000, a big sum considering sire Honest Mischief’s $6,500 stud fee. Her dam has produced two winners from as many foals to race, and there are some solid gate drills on her tab; #6 SCYTHIAN (5-1): Debuts for Bill Mott and has a very, very fast work a few drills ago. Everything about her pedigree says she’ll want more ground, but there’s also a chance she’s talented enough to win going short on pure ability alone.

R7

May Day Ready
Ballerina d’Oro
Love Tempo

#8 MAY DAY READY (12-1): Sold for $325,000 earlier this year, has the pedigree to be a real runner, and boasts a morning line price that definitely catches my attention. She’s by Tapit, out of a Group 1-placed turf horse, and attracts Frankie Dettori, who’s never ridden for this small outfit before; #9 BALLERINA D’ORO (5/2): Is another bred in the purple and debuts for Chad Brown going long on the turf, which will always attract money. This daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is out of a Tapit mare, and while the works are a bit slow, that’s an all-distance pedigree that may be more handy in the afternoon than in the morning; #4 LOVE TEMPO (3-1): Has an experience edge over most of these and was last seen running a fast-closing third at Ellis Park. Ellis Park form doesn’t always travel, but she gets a rider switch to Tyler Gaffalione, who rides a ton for this barn, and she’s certainly eligible to improve at second asking.

R8

Chattalot
Top Gunner
Cape Trafalgar

#8 CHATTALOT (5-1): Looks like the main speed in a sprint that seems fairly light on it, and while this one hasn’t won in a while, this seems like an ideal race shape. His three 2024 starts have all been sharp, and I don’t think he’ll have to run any :44 and change half-miles to make the lead in this spot, which could really help him; #3 TOP GUNNER (6-1): Steps up in class after winning a $50,000 claiming event a few weeks ago. That was his first start for an astute barn, though, so he was eligible to turn things around after a long few years. If he’s on his way back to the form that saw him compete in some big spots back in 2022, his price is an overlay; #5 CAPE TRAFALGAR (4-1): Is one of two Saffie Joseph-trained contenders in here, and this is the one I prefer. He exits a win at Gulfstream and ran well here last year when second behind a stakes-quality runner.

R9

White Sands
Italian Soiree
The Queens M G

#8 WHITE SANDS (3-1): Has yet to be tested in two outings, which she’s won by a combined total of more than 22 lengths. The Grade 3 Adirondack is certainly a class test, but her recent works at Keeneland are sharp and Frankie Dettori hops aboard for Wesley Ward; #2 ITALIAN SOIREE (9/2): Impressed me in her debut, when she stalked, pounced, and drew away pretty easily. 2-year-olds don’t often rate at first asking, but she ran professionally for a trainer whose first-time starters often need a race to get going, which hints that she’s got a lot of talent; #9 THE QUEENS M G (7/2): Pulled off a 44-1 shocker in the Schuylerville, which came after a total dud in the Astoria two back. If we get the version of her we saw last time out, she’s got a shot, but there are some talented runners in here, and while 44-1 was absurd in hindsight, that may mean an overcorrection in the marketplace this time around.

R10

Andy Cant (MTO)
Skellig Island
Modica

#5 SKELLIG ISLAND (10-1): Takes a big drop in class in the Sunday finale off of a race that seems too bad to be true. His two-back effort here against starter allowance foes was a solid one, and the presence of Flavien Prat inspires some confidence at a bit of a price; #9 MODICA (6-1): Ships up from Florida, but has run reasonably well over other turf courses and would benefit from a battle up front. The last-out bullet drill downstate hints that he’s doing pretty well; #10 NOSTALGIC ONE (5-1): Responded to the drop in class with a win in his 2024 debut, which came off a very long break. This is his first try against winners, but it’s also his second start off the bench for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr., so there’s plenty to like.