SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (9/1/19)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $611.10

It was brought to my attention Saturday that a cover of The Pink Sheet is being used as part of a purse being sold at a shop in town. My face, of course, is on it, and even better, it’s from a day earlier this meet when I was leading in the pick box. This came as horrible news to my girlfriend, which means I likely have to buy her one as a gag gift.

I’m wondering if these people can do custom designs. For instance, I’d like to pass along “WANTED” posters asking for information on whomever had the idea to not play along with my half-charming, half-annoying shtick I inflict on Pink Sheet kids outside the gate. Stan Hudy, you’re the prime suspect!

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Three Technique won impressively, but exactas and doubles all fizzled. We dropped $40.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus my action on the seventh race and once again try to extract value out of a favorite. That’s #6 SPARKLING SKY, who I’ll key in $20 exactas atop #1 LAUGHABLE and #3 BRIDAL PATH.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40

– – – – –

BEST BET: Summer Sangria, Race 1
LONGSHOT: Mundaye Call, Race 11

R1

Summer Sangria
Chimney Rock
Las Ramblas

#8 SUMMER SANGRIA: Ran well when second in her unveiling, which came against similar-level foes earlier in the meet. John Velazquez rides back for Wesley Ward, and she looks like the one to beat; #6 CHIMNEY ROCK: Drops in class a bit for this event and cuts back in distance after showing speed going two turns. This barn does well with cutbacks, and he’s worth a look; #9 LAS RAMBLAS: Debuts for Ward and may be good enough to overcome a bad post position. She’s bred to be a good turf horse and has worked well ahead of her first start.

R2

Remembering Bobbie
Elegant Rose
Summer Fantasy

#4 REMEMBERING BOBBIE: Didn’t show much in her debut, but drops in class for a new barn and exits a big recent workout. This seems like a weak spot for the level, and she should be a square price; #2 ELEGANT ROSE: Ships up from Monmouth for Jorge Navarro and may very well be a heavy favorite. However, while she tries the maiden claiming ranks for the first time in a while, it’s not like she’s been running against tough competition lately; #7 SUMMER FANTASY: Was an OK third against similar competition earlier in the meet and is one of two in here trained by Jeremiah Englehart. She’s got some speed and could sit a nice stalking trip.

R3

Northern Haze
Talent Scout
Raphael

#3 NORTHERN HAZE: Rallied to graduate earlier in the meet and was claimed out of that race by Steve Asmussen. He tries winners for the first time, but a repeat of his last effort may be good enough to beat these; #5 TALENT SCOUT: Changed barns following his most recent effort and runs for an outfit that does very well with new acquisitions. His effort two back at this level was fine, and Carmouche may try to get him more involved early on; #4 RAPHAEL: Drops in class and adds blinkers on the slight cutback in distance. Tyler Gaffalione sees fit to ride, and he may appreciate the shallower waters.

R4

Slimey (MTO)
Restructure
My Galina

#3 RESTRUCTURE: Took to turf very well last time out and goes up against winners here. She draws a better post here and should be running well late for a barn that tends to keep horses on the right track; #7 MY GALINA: Drops in class after two tries against stakes company. She was third in a Grade 3 two back and will likely be on or near the lead early on; #8 I’LLHANDALTHECASH: Helped set a pretty fast pace earlier in the meet over a turf course that had some give in it. She doesn’t draw a great post, but she may have the speed to clear most of this field.

R5

Bobbyfromthepalm
O’Bushido
Vaya Con Dios

#10 BOBBYFROMTHEPALM: Debuts for a tag for connections that have snuck several good horses by at this level over the years. He’s worked pretty well and draws a cushy outside post; #4 O’BUSHIDO: Comes in off of a very strong workout for Pletcher and Velazquez. That was a head-turning drill, but a $100,000 purchase running for a $50,000 tag hits me as a red flag; #6 VAYA CON DIOS: Improved when dropped to this level last time out. He contended most of the way before fading to third and should be prominent out of the gate.

R6

Carrier Landing
Paolucci entry
Always Forgiven

#4 CARRIER LANDING: Ships in from Kentucky and gets a tepid nod in a perplexing event. He was rated last time out, but he’s got some early speed and may be on or near the lead in what seems like a paceless race; PAOLUCCI ENTRY: I prefer #1 THE SICARII, who loves Saratoga and drops back to what seems like the right level. He popped at a price against similar foes earlier in the meet, and Santana comes back aboard; #6 ALWAYS FORGIVEN: Makes his first start for a new barn after starting his career out west. The recent local work is notable, but his likely price is a bit tough for me to swallow.

R7

Sparkling Sky
Laughable
Bridal Path

#6 SPARKLING SKY: Is a logical favorite following a strong debut, when she crossed the wire third after being impeded by a next-out stakes winner. A step forward would make this filly very tough to beat; #1 LAUGHABLE: Completes a strong 1-2 punch for Todd Pletcher and is bred to love two turns on turf. Her 329 turf Tomlinson figure is high, and she exits two strong works over the main track; #3 BRIDAL PATH: Didn’t do much running in her debut, but this barn’s first-time starters are rarely fully-cranked. She’s bred to be good, and it’s worth noting that Joel Rosario stayed on when he likely had options.

R8

Orsay
Always a Queen
Lucky Dime

#2 ORSAY: Will likely be hammered down from her morning line odds given her pedigree and workouts. She’s by American Pharoah, out of multiple Grade 1 winner Life At Ten, and fetched a cool $1.2 million at auction last summer; #5 ALWAYS A QUEEN: Is bred to want distance and debuts for Todd Pletcher. Her two most recent works hint at some talent, but she may want even more distance than she gets here; #12 LUCKY DIME: Debuted with a third-place finish at this distance and may step forward at second asking if she draws in off the AE list. She’s worked well since her debut and showed some tactical speed in her unveiling.

R9

Enjay’s Brass
Connectivity
Here Comes Jackie

#5 ENJAY’S BRASS: Was third against optional claiming foes earlier in the meet and gets the services of Jose Ortiz on the slight drop in class. She may have moved a hair early that day, and she’s improved in all three starts this season; #3 CONNECTIVITY: Loved the drop in class earlier in the meet, when she rolled home against lower-level claimers. She steps up for new trainer Linda Rice, and her prior connections thought highly enough of her to run her in a pair of stakes races; #2 HERE COMES JACKIE: Hasn’t won in a while, but drops into the claiming ranks for the first time and attracts Javier Castellano. This barn has hit the board with four of seven starters at this stand.

R10

Carrizo
Smoken Deb
Excess Capacity

#6 CARRIZO: Has run well twice at the meet and exits a fast race for the level last time out. She’ll almost certainly be prominent from the second the gates open, and she could lead this one every step of the way; #7 SMOKEN DEB: Hasn’t run since March, but was tried in several tough spots earlier this season and has worked steadily ahead of her return. This barn has done very well with horses off of similar layoffs; #3 EXCESS CAPACITY: Capitalized on a perfect trip last time out and takes a big step up in class for new connections. She cuts back in distance, and Jose Ortiz hops aboard for the first time.

R11

Frank’s Rockette
Mundaye Call
Shippy

#2 FRANK’S ROCKETTE: Had a horrible trip in the Grade 2 Adirondack and was beaten just a half-length that day. It’s tough to believe she’ll have such horrible luck twice in a row, and she’s strictly the one to beat; #1 MUNDAYE CALL: Went way too fast early in her debut, but was still beaten just a head by a talented filly. For a Grade 1 sprint, there isn’t much true early speed signed on, so she could get to dictate terms at a price; #7 SHIPPY: Makes her third career start for a third different trainer following a third-place finish in the Grade 3 Schuylerville. She may not have been fully-cranked that day off of just one workout, and she’s worked steadily ahead of this race.

R12

I Love Jaxson (MTO)
Graded On a Curve
Opt

#2 GRADED ON A CURVE: Never had a chance with the trip he got last time out, where he lacked running room at crucial times. A less-eventful journey would make him formidable in the Sunday finale; #5 OPT: Was second in that event, which was won by a next-out winner. He’s improved in each career start and should be running well late beneath Javier Castellano; #11 SALTKING: Graduated after a long layoff and tries winners for the first time. A contentious early pace would help him, as he does his best running in the stretch.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s