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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Majestic Moonlight, Race 6
Longshot: Tarantino, Race 9

R1

Arequipe (AE)
Bunyan (AE)
High Official

#9 AREQUIPE (10-1): Needs a scratch to draw in and may be a price, but is definitely worth a look. He ran fine in his debut going short at Gulfstream, but everything about his pedigree says he’ll improve with distance, and being by Candy Ride, he’ll have every right to appreciate the lawn; #10 BUNYAN (9/2): Is bred up and down for the turf and boasts several strong workouts north of the border at Woodbine. Like my top pick, he’s on the AE list and needs some help, but this certainly feels like the spot he’s bred to want; #4 HIGH OFFICIAL (7/2): Would be a tepid top pick if there are no scratches in the main body of the field. He’s one of seven first-time starters in that eight-horse group, and Todd Pletcher debuting horses on turf isn’t usually something I love, but dam Sweet Melania was an excellent turf router and sire Not This Time’s foals can run on anything.

R2

Mischievous M (MTO)
Shefflin
Vacation Dance

#6 SHEFFLIN (3-1): Is one of two for trainer Mike Maker, and we haven’t seen him since October. However, he’s been working very, very well both here and at Turfway Park, and his lone prior outing at this route was a win at a similar level last August beneath Flavien Prat, who rides back; #4 VACATION DANCE (9/2): Goes first off the claim for Orlando Noda, who’s already won a few races at this stand. He’s a deep, deep closer, and he may need quite a bit to go right, but he’s shown an affinity for the Spa and has back races good enough to win this; #5 SON OF A BIRCH (5/2): Has some back class and may go favored, but I have some doubts. He hasn’t found the winner’s circle in a long, long time, and while he generally runs well enough to pick up a check, he also seems to have a habit of finding trouble. At his likely price, I’ll take a mild stand against him.

R3

Don’t Be Salty
Katie King
Beira

#2 DON’T BE SALTY (3-1): Has some tactical speed and was a close-up second in a similar spot at Churchill last time out. Irad Ortiz, Jr., has ridden her well in each of her last two outings, including a sharp five-length score in May, and it seems like she’s finding her form midway through her 4-year-old season; #7 KATIE KING (8-1): Has taken steps forward for a barn that means business when it ships in from Finger Lakes. She steps up in class but has won two in a row, and she’s another I’m expecting to be forward early on; #1 BEIRA (4-1): Has run some nice races going a bit shorter and goes out for a barn that’s enjoyed a very strong start to the meet. The question is, does she really want to go two turns? This trip is a complete unknown, and I’m hesitant to take a fairly short price on her because of that.

R4

Emirates Road
Fort Nelson
Castle Chaos

#3 EMIRATES ROAD (5/2): Ran second in a similar spot downstate first off the claim by Mike Maker, and that day’s winner sat an absolutely perfect trip. His lone start here was a victory, and while the quirky Wilson chute doesn’t agree with all horses (or all handicappers…), he’s run well enough going two turns in the past to where I don’t think it’ll bother him; #2 FORT NELSON (7/2): Drops in class for aggressive connections off of an absolute clunker going seven furlongs. He didn’t sit his desired trip on or near the lead that day, though, and he could be the controlling speed in here. Given the inside draw and the tendencies of the route, that makes him dangerous; #7 CASTLE CHAOS (8-1): Doesn’t draw too well in here, but he’s got plenty of back races that would make him a player. He won at a similar level two back in the slop, and while he’s 0-for-7 at Saratoga, many of those races have come against much better competition.

R5

Lady Rose (MTO)
She Takes Cash
Tongue Twister

#1 SHE TAKES CASH (4-1): Goes second off the bench here and ran a solid third at this level on closing day at Aqueduct. I don’t love the 0-for-9 record on turf, but her last try was the only one on her sheet against state-breds, and perhaps she’s got a right to improve being a bit more fit here; #5 TONGUE TWISTER (6-1): Hasn’t won since early-2025, but the blinkers go back on and she figures to be prominent early. In a wide-open event like this, especially on the inner turf, early positioning matters, and this one could be in an ideal spot if she gets comfortable; #3 FEDUPWITHTHEFED (12-1): Ran for the first time in more than a year back in May and wasn’t terrible. She stretches out to two turns and does so after a series of sharp drills downstate. Given her relative inexperience, perhaps we haven’t seen the best of her yet.

R6

Majestic Moonlight
Samartina
Beside You

#2 MAJESTIC MOONLIGHT (6-1): Was tough to handle last time out and rated in a race with very little speed to run down. I think there will be a much more friendly setup here, which should allow her to show her best form beneath new rider Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #7 SAMARTINA (7/2): Was a close-up second from start to finish last time in what was easily the best race she’s run stateside. She figures to be on or near the lead, but note that Prat goes elsewhere after the last-out effort, which could be a red flag; #5 BESIDE YOU (12-1): Goes second off the layoff and adds blinkers for a sneaky barn that can pop at a price. She was wide last time, but still finished fourth in the race my second choice exits and may be eligible to move forward while providing some value.

R7

Golden Symphony
Art Fair
South Bend Tom

#4 GOLDEN SYMPHONY (6-1): Just missed at this level and distance last time out and does his best running at this seven-furlong trip. Three of his four career wins have come going seven panels, and unlike several others, he doesn’t need the lead in order to run well. He’s a candidate for an ideal “stalk and pounce” trip in a wide-open start to the late Pick Four; #10 ART FAIR (8-1): Comes in off of two wins in a row and figures to be part of a hot pace. This barn is enjoying a very strong summer to this point, and speed rider Kendrick Carmouche will give him every chance on the engine. Of the likely speed horses, this is the one I’d recommend; #7 SOUTH BEND TOM (9/2): Isn’t the most consistent sort, but he ran well enough to win last time out before being caught in the final strides. This barn means business when it sends a runner in from Kentucky, and he should certainly get pace to chase.

R8

Grand Job
Haulin Ice
Striker Has Dial

#6 GRAND JOB (1/2): Is the most likely winner on the card and will be bet accordingly in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss. She set a ridiculous pace last time out before being nailed at the wire for the second straight time, but this seems like a softer spot than either of those two events, and I don’t think she gets challenged; #4 HAULIN ICE (4-1): Is a dream to own and campaign, with 12 wins in 23 starts and earnings of more than $1.2 million. She’s run races that wouldn’t make her impossible if the chalk doesn’t show up, but even with the stumble at the gate, she should’ve manhandled the field she faced last time at Delaware and couldn’t get it done; #3 STRIKER HAS DIAL (10-1): Has won two listed stakes in a row and was fifth in this event last year. Graded company has been beyond her scope so far, but she’s run well here in the past and could sit an ideal stalking trip at a price.

R9

Senior Officer
Tarantino
Bring the Smoke

#4 SENIOR OFFICER (9/5): Hasn’t run a bad one, with three wins and two seconds in five starts to date, and he ran very fast to take an optional claimer here lat time out. I’m a bit surprised he isn’t trying stakes company off of that effort, but if he’s the same horse he was that day, he’ll be a formidable favorite; #3 TARANTINO (15-1): Clearly didn’t like the Wilson chute last time out, when he set a fast pace and folded in a race that collapsed up front. He cut back to an elongated sprint here, and I think that’s his best game. His two-back win at Churchill was good, and that form would make him competitive at what could be a big price; #2 BRING THE SMOKE (8-1): Is a candidate to pick up the pieces late if the race falls apart. He’s won two in a row for Whit Beckman and could still have room to move forward. If he does, he’ll be heard from late.

R10

Whitethorn
American Debutante
Mary Lois

#7 WHITETHORN (2-1): Adds blinkers in the Sunday nightcap and is the one to beat after several near-misses. Perhaps she’s approaching “now or never” territory after five seconds and a third in six starts, but her two-back effort at Keeneland closing into a race with a slow pace was genuinely impressive, and I think today’s graduation day; #2 AMERICAN DEBUTANTE (8-1): Has a nightmare trip last time out when she was very, very wide, so I have no problem drawing a line through it. Her races prior to that were fine, including one third-place finish here last year and another third at Aqueduct going this 11-furlong distance; #9 MARY LOIS (6-1): Runs for powerhouse connections and will look to atone for a clunker as a 1/2 favorite last time out. She’s bred to want this marathon trip, and Prat sees fit to ride back, but she also may come down off of that morning line price solely because of the trainer/jockey combination, and that may mean she loses value from a betting standpoint.